US says the shooting will (again) stop ahead of Doha talks, sending oil to pre-war levels

The US and Iran agreed overnight to stop shooting at each other, setting up the latest fragile standdown on the Strait of Hormuz and leaving us to hope that things will stay quiet enough to get the two sides into a room in Doha tomorrow (Tuesday). A senior US official told Axios, which broke the story, that the US had decided “to stop all the kinetic activity.” It’s a sign of how little the 17 June memorandum is holding after an IRGC drone hit the Ever Lovely last Thursday, setting up US strikes the next day, and a tit-for-tat strikes that ran through the weekend.

Watch this space: Tehran has yet to confirm that it agrees this latest round of “kinetic activity” is over.

Still, oil traders welcomed the Axios report: Brent had eased to USD 69.92 / bbl as of our dispatch time this morning — that’s back to pre-war levels, for those of you keeping count.

Aramco is moving fastest to restore production and shipping: It resumed loading at Ras Tanura on Friday after a near-four-month halt. Two days later, an Aramco helicopter crashed at the terminal, killing all 14 on board, all of them Saudi nationals — the cause is under investigation.

Qatar is pushing too, sending tankers back through Hormuz as it continues working to get its Ras Laffan plant fully back online. Repairs there continue, and a deadly 21-22 June gas blast left export capability untouched, Doha said.

The big question: Vessels are leaving the Gulf — but they’re ships that had been stuck since the start of the war. What matters next is how many owners agree to send back in to load up with fresh cargoes.

IN CONTEXT- OPEC+ meets 5 July to discuss quotas, its seven-nation core having added 188k bpd for July at its meeting earlier this month.

SIGN OF THE TIMES- Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed took a call from Iran’s foreign minister this past Friday in which bin Zayed pressed Iran on freedom of navigation through Hormuz. It’s the first publicly acknowledged contact between the two foreign ministers since the war began.