The UN just stopped escorting vessels through Hormuz after “someone” let a projectile fly…

The ceasefire is (basically) holding as we slide toward the end of the weekend, one week after Washington and Tehran signed a framework agreement.

Exports of crude through the Strait of Hormuz were gradually ramping up to pre-war levels, Bloomberg notes, and Saudi is getting ready to restart its giant Ras Tanura terminal for the first time since early March. About 13 mn bbl/d left the region in the three days to Wednesday.

Plenty of that was already-loaded cargo getting out, and flows through Hormuz were ticking up toward 75% of pre-war levels, analysts think, so the bigger test will be how soon we see tankers sailing back into the Gulf to load new crude.

It’s touch-and-go right now after the IMO paused its escort of tankers and other ships through the strait Thursday after Singapore-flagged Ever Lovely was hit by a projectile off Oman — US officials say Iran fired on it. Also yesterday, the Revolutionary Guard turned at least two ships around.

Iran’s message is clear: We control the strait and we’ll put tolls in place if we want to. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who yesterday wrapped up three days of meetings with Gulf allies, faced pressure to ensure there is “free, unconditional, and unrestricted” passage with no tolls.