Exhale, but don’t unclench

Good morning, friends. After weeks of holding our collective breath, the region is finally exhaling. The interim US-Iran peace agreement took effect yesterday, shipping is trickling back through the Strait of Hormuz, and the DFM celebrated by rallying 2.5% to its highest close since before the war — dragging itself back into positive YTD territory in the process.

It’s the kind of morning where you let yourself feel cautiously optimistic, but then immediately find reasons to worry again. The Strait may be open (seven vessels crossed yesterday) but US-Iran talks that were penciled in for today are off, and Israel seems to have decided it wants no part in the peace.

Elsewhere, we’re keeping an eye on SpaceX, which is lining up a USD 20 bn bond sale as soon as next week — days after pulling in USD 86 bn in the biggest IPO in history — to clear the bridge loan from March’s xAI-X merger. Moody’s handed it an investment-grade Baa1 on Thursday, with a caveat about “elevated execution and financial risks”: the company burned USD 6.4 bn last year and is still cash-flow negative. A USD 2.4 tn close on Thursday, good for sixth-largest company on the planet, apparently buys a lot of benefit of the doubt.

If you’re a parent — or just an elder millennial who laments how “kids these days” are growing up with TikTok — you’ll likely tip your hat this morning to the UAE Cabinet, which decided yesterday to set 15 as the minimum age for a social media account. The new resolution allows for no exceptions (not even with parental consent). The move is a first for any Arab country and follows similar rules pushed through in the UK. Platforms have a 12-month grace period to figure out how to enforce the rules.

AND- Don’t forget to plan something nice for your dad over the weekend — Father’s Day is this coming Sunday, 21 June. –Salma