UAE, Qatar, and Jordan hold onto sovereign ratings

Economies across MENA+ may be contracting (or growing much slower) thanks to the war, but ratings agencies remain convinced they have good long-term prospects. Abu Dhabi, Doha, and Amman’s sovereign credit ratings all received another stamp of approval from credit rating agencies, with Fitch Ratings affirming Abu Dhabi’s long-term sovereign rating at AA with a stable outlook and Jordan’s long-term foreign currency issuer rating at BB-. S&P Global says outlook on Qatar’s long-term credit rating is stable, leaving unchanged its AA rating.

Abu Dhabi’s strong buffers are a big anchor: Fitch pointed to robust fiscal and external metrics even as the emirate steps up spending and borrowing amid regional tensions, according to a press release. Government debt is projected to climb to 25.3% of GDP this year from 19.5% in 2025 as the emirate ramps up support for key government-related entities, while sovereign net foreign assets — estimated at around 291% of GDP — remain among the highest globally.

The rating also reflects “the resilience of oil export revenue during the Iran war,” with the Habshan-Fujairah pipeline keeping crude flowing at up to 1.8 mn bbl / d despite the blockade. Fitch flagged “significant risks of a renewed flare-up” and warned that a structural deterioration in regional security would challenge economic diversification — the emirate’s high oil reliance is what's holding it back from a higher rating. Fitch sees the economy contracting by around 1% in 2026 before a gradual recovery.

S&P’s affirmation of its Qatar rating rests on Doha’s “sizable external and fiscal net asset stock positions” anchored by the Qatar Investment Authority and other state funds, which are expected to help the country weather heightened security and trade flow disruption risks tied to the regional conflict. S&P expects Qatar’s economy will contract by 5% in 2026 before rebounding from 2027 as LNG expansion comes online. The stable outlook assumes the conflict stays limited in duration and contained without significant further damage to Qatar's production facilities.

Jordan held onto its BB- on reform momentum, with Fitch citing the country’s track record of macroeconomic stability, continued progress in fiscal and administrative reforms, and access to flexible domestic and international financing. All of these factors are also backed by a strong banking sector and sustained international support. The agency expects growth of around 2.6% in 2026 and inflation averaging 2.2% across 2026-2027.