Regional non-oil private sectors show mixed performance

It was a mixed April for the private sector across MENA+, with business conditions rebounding in Saudi and Qatar, while the UAE, Egypt, Kuwait, and Qatar continued to take it on the chin.

On the rebound: Saudi Arabia’s purchasing managers’ index (PMI) rose to 51.5 in April, up from March’s contraction of 48.8, supported by new business growing as local clients returned to the market after a jittery March. Qatar also had a better April, although its non-oil private sector remained in contraction territory at 46.4 — jumping from 38.7 in March, which was its lowest level in nearly six years.

Not so much: The UAE had its weakest month in more than five years in April amid increased cost pressures and ongoing supply chain disruptions due to the regional war, with the country’s seasonally adjusted PMI slipping further to 52.1 from 52.9 the month prior. The last time the UAE’s non-oil sector was in contraction territory was in 2020, at the peak of covid-19. Egypt sustained its fifth consecutive monthly drop to 46.6 in April, down from 48.0 in March. Meanwhile, Kuwait’s PMI reading remained flat month-on-month at 46.3, and Turkey’s PMI also dipped to 45.7 in April from 47.9 in May.

It’s the war, silly: All six countries felt a continued drag from the regional conflict, which has dented demand, slowed shipping, and fueled hesitancy among clients. In Saudi Arabia, the ceasefire holding up for nearly a month “has allowed for business activity to resume, flight activity to resume, and that has had a boost in some customer confidence,” MENA Economist Hamzeh Al Gaaod tells EnterpriseAM. Egypt and Turkey both tied fuel and raw material shortages directly to the conflict, and Qatari businesses cited market instability and reduced client activity as the war’s reach extended further into the non-energy economy.

Costs are climbing everywhere, and execs are battening down the hatches: Companies reported a sharp acceleration in input-cost inflation, with many also passing higher prices onto consumers. Saudi Arabia recorded its steepest rise in business expenses on record, while the UAE’s selling prices climbed at the fastest pace in almost 15 years. Egypt’s cost pressures hit a three-year high, Turkey’s a two-year high, and Qatar’s a 16-month high. Kuwait was the lone outlier, where weak demand actually dragged input costs lower. Firms across the region reported similar strategies to shield their margins, including cutting headcount, running down inventories, and scaling back purchasing.

Sentiment on the year ahead is also split, with firms in Saudi Arabia and Dubai staying cautiously optimistic. Pessimism among the business community in Qatar eased from the month prior on hopes of a lasting ceasefire, with the share of firms expecting weaker activity dropping to 29% from 70% the previous month. Kuwait’s business confidence, meanwhile, slipped to its lowest reading since June 2020.