Talks between Lebanon and Israel could be make-or-break for the Gulf ceasefire

Folks across the Gulf got an uninterrupted night of sleep last night as a shaky ceasefire remains in effect heading into a critical round of US-Iran peace talks tomorrow in Pakistan.

The UAE confirmed Thursday was the first day in nearly 40 days of war it was spared missile and drone attacks from Iran. Most other countries in the region appear to have also breathed a sigh of relief yesterday, although Kuwait reported drone strikes on “vital facilities” — an attack Iran insisted didn’t come from it.

Watch this space: Hours into the ceasefire announcement, the East-West pipeline — the Kingdom’s only way to move oil around the once-again closed Strait of Hormuz — was hit in a drone attack, according to unconfirmed reports from the Financial Times and Bloomberg. No further reports of attacks in Saudi Arabia emerged on Thursday.

Airspaces clear after ceasefire announcement: Iraq and Syria both moved to reopen their airspace and get planes back in the air on something resembling a normal schedule after weeks of war-driven closures and severe disruption across the Middle East. Bahrain also reopened its airspace and flights have been gradually leaving its airport as of Thursday morning.

Lebanon remains the key outlier — and the part of the puzzle that threatens to upend the fragile truce. After one of the deadliest days of attacks from Israel earlier this week that left 250 dead in Lebanon, Beirut’s government could begin talks with Tel Aviv on disarming Hezbollah.

Talks between Beirut and Tel Aviv could be make-or-break for the Gulf ceasefire: Iran has said that it refuses to attend talks with the US in Islamabad unless Israel halts attacks on Lebanon and agrees to bring it under the umbrella of the ceasefire.

Iran’s main bargaining chip continues to be the Strait of Hormuz, which it closed off again in response to the attacks on Lebanon.

The UAE is doubling down on the view that Iran is committing “economic terrorism”: The Strait is not open — and cannot remain under one state’s control, UAE Industry and Advanced Technology Minister Sultan Al Jaber said yesterday in a Linkedin post. “The Strait was not built, engineered, financed or constructed by any state. It is a natural passage governed by the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, which guarantees transit as a matter of right; not a privilege to be granted, withheld or weaponized,” said Al Jaber, who double-hats as the head of Adnoc.