GCC aluminum output nosedives, putting pressure on buyers to find alternatives

Aerospace, electronics, and construction firms across Japan, the US, and the EU are the latest to take it on the chin from the US-Israeli war on Iran. Each of those territories imports 19-25% of its primary aluminum from the GCC — which accounts for some 9% of global supply — and the war is now threatening the flow of a metal those industries can’t easily substitute.

Aluminum prices hit a four-year high at USD 3.5k per metric ton earlier this week, but have since cooled to around USD 3.2k per metric ton. Still, prices are up c.10% compared to February’s average rates.

The state of play: Several regional aluminum players, including Aluminum Bahrain (Alba) and Qatar’s Qatalum, have partially shut-down operations, while Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) remains operational but is relying on stockpiles of finished products and raw materials. Gulf smelters often rely on imported alumina and bauxite feedstocks, meaning that when Hormuz traffic stalls, the supply chain is squeezed on both ends.

“Gulf smelters that are affected are finding new ways to transport materials,” Fastmarkets analyst Andy Farida told EnterpriseAM. EGA is reportedly looking to reroute its aluminum exports and raw materials through Oman’s port of Sohar, with aluminum feedstock then transported by truck to either Dubai or Abu Dhabi for smelting. Alba has also been using trucks to export out of Jeddah, but these alternative routes “are likely to take a longer time [and at] higher costs,” Farida said.

What now? Countries and companies that depend on Gulf aluminium imports may soon start looking for alternative suppliers, but replacing Gulf supply quickly would be difficult — and will depend on how fast these alternative producers can re-start idled production capacity, which can take up to nine months.

China and Europe have the largest idle capacity, but both face their own challenges in restarting it. China is already producing at a record level and has a cap on how far it can go beyond this level — and “any meaningful increase would require a policy decision to relax the cap,” ING’s London-based commodity strategist Ewa Manthey told EnterpriseAM. Meanwhile, “Europe still has the largest pool of idled aluminium capacity, but restarts are conditional on power costs and typically take months, not weeks,” she added.

That leaves buyers with limited options to fill in the gap in the short term. “The longer Gulf supply is disrupted, the more the market has to rely on inventories, trade re‑routing and selective restarts — not a quick rescue from China or a single alternative producer," Manthey said.

For industries already grappling with higher energy costs and fragile supply chains, even temporary disruptions could push input costs higher and delay production schedules. And because aluminium sits at the heart of industries ranging from automotive and aerospace manufacturing to construction materials and beverage packaging, the effects would eventually filter down to consumers.

Really feeling the pinch: Carmakers, who are are “panic buying” aluminum out of fear that supplies from the Gulf could run out within months. Production will be scaled back within four months unless alternative supply sources are secured, manufacturers say. The global supply shortage is prompting some to resort to options including Russia, despite previous boycotts.

The clock is ticking: Smelters usually have 4-8 weeks of raw materials in storage and try to avoid shutdowns at all costs, even if it means operating at reduced rates. If they do have to shut down completely, a restart will be a long and complex process, costing from USD 10-50 mn — and taking up to a year while risking permanent damage to equipment.