War jitters cool Indian demand for Dubai real estate

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

RBI cancels Paytm Payments Bank’s license

Good afternoon, everyone, and happy Monday. We are kicking off the week with a light issue covering the cascading economic fallout from the regional conflict across real estate, trade, and energy.

The big story today is a deep dive into how war-driven downbeat sentiment is cooling Dubai’s real estate market, transforming Indian investors—the emirate’s largest overseas buyer base — from eager purchasers to cautious bargain hunters.

Plus: We take a close look at the mounting pressure on India's multi-bn-USD gems and jewelry sector, as the ongoing regional conflict fractures its critical trade corridor through Dubai.

MEANWHILE- India is pivoting heavily toward the US for its LPG imports as Gulf shipments plummet amid shipping disruptions — the oil shock has hit the core business of the country’s largest refiner, Reliance Industries, shaving 13% off its quarterly bottom line.

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MENA+ covers AI and tech — and geopolitics, the war for talent, which BSD is on top (and who's gunning for them), the changing energy economy, new corridors to India and China, and much, much more.

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BANKING — The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has canceled the banking license of Mumbai-based digital bank Paytm Payments Bank, more than two years after imposing curbs for persistent non-compliance, according to a press release. The regulator said the bank’s operations were “detrimental” to depositors and public interest, adding it will seek its winding up through the courts.

Abu Dhabi Investment Authority was a notable anchor investor in parent firm Paytm’s USD 2.5 bn IPO back in 2021. In December last year, Paytm (One97 Communications) sold a 49% stake in its UAE subsidiary, Paytm Arab Payments, to Abbar Global Opportunities Holdings, owned by Mohamed Ali Rashed Alabbar, the founder of Emaar Properties.

What we know: Restrictions were first imposed in January 2024, when the bank was barred from accepting fresh deposits over failures in customer due diligence, fund flows, and technology systems. Since then, operations were limited to withdrawals and basic services.

Impact on parent company: The bank is backed by One97 Communications, which holds a 51% stake, with the rest owned by founder Vijay Shekhar Sharma. Paytm stated the licence cancellation will not materially impact its business, as the payments bank operated independently.

Why it matters: The Payments Bank license was designed to democratize deposits without the weight of a full banking license. The RBI’s decision reflects part of the declining relevance of payments banks amid the rise of UPI-based transactions and rising compliance costs, raising questions over the viability of the model.

ENERGY — India’s liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) imports from the US have surged as Gulf supply remains disrupted, Business Standard reports. Indian refiners had sourced about 361k tonnes from the US by 25 April, making it the largest supplier this month.

Meanwhile, shipments from traditional Gulf suppliers have plummeted. Imports from the UAE — India’s largest LPG source — fell 74% to 163k tons in April from 626k tons in February. Purchases from Qatar dropped nearly 80% this month compared to February, while Saudi Arabia fell 59%, and Kuwait plunged over 95%, the news outlet reports, citing Kpler data.

Why it matters: India’s efforts to diversify have yielded only marginal volumes from countries like Argentina and Chile due to limited global spare capacity. In the near term, replacing Gulf supply will remain difficult without stability in key shipping routes like the Strait of Hormuz. Supply disruptions have already hit consumption, with LPG demand declining in March as the government accelerated piped natural gas connections to reduce reliance on imports.

The big story abroad

While the latest developments from yesterday’s shooting at the White House correspondents’ dinner are dominating the front pages, a few other stories have caught our attention:

Our daily update on ceasefire negotiations: After the latest round of discussions between the US and Iran fell through, US President Donald Trump appears to have left the ball in Tehran’s court, saying Iran can reach out by phone to continue negotiations.

And in markets: Bullish sentiment over AI appears to have pushed equities to record highs. Since the outbreak of the regional war, 82 stocks, most of which are tied to the AI boom, have posted gains above 10%, which the Wall Street Journal attributed to investor confidence in data-center construction and infrastructure providers like Nvidia.

Speaking of AI: According to new reports, AI may end up costing businesses more than human labor, with computing costs exceeding salaries in some cases. Firms like Uber are seeing AI costs skyrocket, with some estimates placing global IT spending at USD 6.3 tn in 2026 — a 13% y-o-y jump.

In the (shrinking?) world of human achievement, Kenyan athlete Sabastian Sawe made history yesterday as the first runner to ever finish a competitive marathon in under two hours.

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Indian investors turn cautious as Dubai real estate sentiment shifts

A war-driven downbeat sentiment is weighing on Dubai’s real estate market, particularly among Indian investors, who form the emirate’s largest overseas buyer base. While Indian buyers have not abandoned Dubai as their favorite destination for real estate investments, their psychology has changed from eager buyers to bargain hunters, Ritu Kant Ojha, real estate strategist and CEO of Proact Luxury Real Estate, tells EnterpriseAM.

Indian nationals were the largest foreign buyer group in Dubai’s residential market in 2025, investing an estimated AED 35-40 bn (USD 9.5-11 bn) last year alone. As of late 2024, over 29k Indian buyers collectively owned more than 35k homes in the emirate. “Confidence levels amongst the largely expat [Indian] population will undoubtedly be tested,” Faisal Durrani, head of research at Knight Frank MENA, tells us.

The immediate impact of the regional conflict has been on activity levels rather than headline prices. Inquiries from Indian buyers dropped by up to 20%, while bookings were down some 15% compared to pre-war levels, and transaction volumes saw a sharp m-o-m dip, Abhijeet Saxena, sales VP at Delhi-based Mirus Global Real Estate, tells us.

IN CONTEXT- Dubai’s residential capital values fell 5.9% m-o-m in March — its first price decline since the pandemic — with several analysts penciling in a moderation phase for 2026.

Prices have not corrected across the board: “We are absolutely seeing distress transactions right now — even in ultra-premium locations like Palm Jumeirah and Emirates Hills,” Ojha notes. Similar micro-corrections in investor-heavy off-plan projects and overpriced launches are being seen, Saxena says, adding that prime and supply-constrained assets continue to hold firm.

The market has handed pricing power to liquidity-rich investors. Cash buyers, particularly in higher-ticket segments, are now dictating the terms as sellers look to liquidate assets in response to war-led panic, according to Ojha.

Developers respond with flexibility: “Major players like Damac, Binghatti, and Sobha are stepping up with solid incentives to keep sales momentum going. They are currently offering 4% DLD waivers and topping that off with another 3-4% in direct markdowns,” Ohja tells us. However, he adds, these specific sweeteners are temporary and will likely be withdrawn by early May.

Developers are loosening earlier rigid payment schedules and offering plans for buyers to stagger commitments over the construction cycle. Banks are expanding access to mortgages and offering relatively competitive rates to help maintain liquidity in the system, particularly for buyers who might otherwise delay entry, says Saxena.

Despite the slowdown, there is little evidence of capital redirecting back to India. “Wealthy Indians treat their home markets differently. Dubai is where they park their money for stability and a currency hedge,” Ojha tells us. Dubai offers average rental yields of 6-9%, against just 2-3% in major Indian cities like Mumbai and Delhi.

Institutional investors are likely to reassess geopolitical risks and adopt a cautious wait-and-see approach instead of exiting the market. “Given the residential market’s historical sensitivity to investor sentiment and inward migration flows, shifts in confidence levels will be a critical determinant of price stability in the short term,” according to Knight Frank’s Durrani.

India's USD 30 bn jewelry trade choked by Iran war

Logistical breakdowns linked to the war in the Middle East have disrupted India’s gems and jewelry trade through Dubai, exposing the sector’s reliance on a single trade corridor.

The disruption has affected shipments of rough diamonds and finished jewelry, with flight cancellations and airspace closures limiting cargo movement between India and the UAE, a key global hub for diamond trade flows. This high-risk environment has led to a sharp increase in ins. premiums, further weighing on shipments.

Why it matters: The India-UAE corridor is the lifeblood of the sector. The Middle East accounts for nearly a quarter of India’s annual gems and jewelry exports — around INR 2.5 tn (USD 30 bn) — while the UAE makes up more than two-thirds of the country’s rough diamond imports.

The immediate fallout: India’s gems and jewelry exports dropped around 35% y-o-y in March. “The disruptions have been quite broad-based, but we see them as more short-term in nature at this stage,” Kirit Bhansali, chairman of the Gem and Jewellery Export Promotion Council (GJEPC), tells EnterpriseAM.

By the numbers: Exports to the GCC plunged nearly 67.8% in March, down to USD 325.92 mn from USD 1.01 bn, “which shows that the impact was across categories, including plain gold jewelry, cut and polished diamonds, and studded gold jewelry,” Bhansali says.

Imports and exports hit simultaneously

The disruption has affected both ends of the value chain. As the world’s largest diamond cutting and polishing hub, India — handling nine out of every 10 diamonds processed globally — depends on steady inflows of rough diamonds to sustain processing activity.

“In some cases, even completed diamond export parcels could not be shipped, which reflects the extent of movement constraints,” Bhansali tells us. “That said, we expect this to be temporary; if geopolitical tensions ease, exports should recover. However, if uncertainty continues, we could see ongoing volatility, especially in segments like gold jewelry.”

Shipment delays and rising costs

Industry estimates paint a stark picture: Roughly USD 3 bn worth of exports faced disruption risks between February and April. While exporters have managed to mitigate about USD 1.43 bn of that exposure, another USD 1.54 bn remains on the line if the logistical paralysis persists. “Exporters are facing logistics bottlenecks and a sharp increase in ins. costs due to the high-risk environment, which is making shipments more expensive and difficult to execute,” Bhansali tells us.

Dependence on Dubai in focus

The disruption has highlighted the risks of relying on Dubai as a single trade and logistics hub, both for sourcing and redistribution. “This kind of concentration does pose a risk, and the current situation has brought that into sharper focus. It may lead to some rethinking around diversification over time,” says Bhansali.

A structural shift on the horizon? A prolonged squeeze could accelerate the search for alternative trade routes and also fuel ambitions to build domestic trading infrastructure in India.

Reliance NP dips 13% as oil shock hits core business

Reliance Industries’ net income dropped 13% y-o-y to INR 169.7 bn (USD 1.8 bn) for the February-April period, with the company flagging “unprecedented dislocation” from the US-Israel-Iran war even as results broadly met expectations, according to its quarterly financial report (pdf). Chairman Mukesh Ambani said the conflict has severely disrupted global supply chains, reinforcing the need for energy security.

Refining hit by oil shock: The core oil-to-chemicals business of India’s largest refiner came under pressure as crude prices surged above USD 100 / bbl and shipping and ins. costs spiked. The effective disruption of the Strait of Hormuz tightened supply, forcing refiners to source more costly crude globally. Margins were hit further as domestic units shifted toward lower-margin LPG production to address local shortages.

Consumer units cushion impact: The impact was partly offset by strong performance in consumer businesses — Reliance Jio and Reliance Retail reported robust growth — with telecom earnings rising and retail expanding store count. Jio’s net income rose 10% y-o-y to INR 73.2 bn (USD 880 mn).

IN CONTEXT- Jio, which counts Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, Mubadala Investment, and Saudi Arabia’s PIF as shareholders, has been eyeing trimming down small fractions of existing equity ahead of its upcoming IPO.

Global sourcing and outlook: Reliance has diversified crude sourcing to countries like Russia, Venezuela, and Brazil to manage disruptions. However, the full extent of the impact will be felt in the current June quarter, with continued geopolitical uncertainty clouding earnings visibility.

Not another 2008

Point: Private credit funds are under pressure from higher borrowing costs and transparency concerns.

Counterpoint: These funds’ conservative leverage and distinct capital structure provide a buffer that limits the risk of a systemic collapse. At least that’s what Amit Seru, senior fellow at the Hoover Institution and professor of finance at Stanford’s Graduate School of Business argues in a piece for the Financial Times. Seru’s core thesis is that the asset class isn’t what’s going to set off a 2008-style financial crisis.

Private credit funds’ conservatively structured leverage ratio and equity absorption cushion losses, Seru argues. Banking leverage is around 8-to-1, or roughly 12 cents of equity per USD of assets, while private credit has an average ratio of 1.25-to-1. Roughly 65-80 cents of every USD of assets is funded by equity rather than debt for funds that borrow from banks. This means losses are absorbed by long-term equity investors first, making funds more resilient in downturns.

This asset class also holds a strategic advantage by locking in investor capital for long durations. This structure aligns liabilities with the span of underlying loans and reduces the risk of forced liquidation. Meanwhile, banks fund long-term assets with short-term liabilities that can be withdrawn on demand, creating maturity mismatches and fueling financial crises.

Bank ties and investor withdrawals aren’t major threats

Concerns about bank linkages are also overstated: Private credit funds typically only use bank credit lines for short-term needs, such as managing the timing of capital calls, Seru notes. The Federal Reserve even modeled a severe stress scenario in which private credit funds face distress and fully draw down these lines — even then, major banks remain well capitalized.

Rising investor withdrawals are less of a distress sign than a financial safety measure. Investors have rushed to redeem their capital amid transparency and AI-related risks, pushing multiple firms to cap withdrawals and avoid selling illiquid loans at steep reductions. These measures don’t mean that the sector is facing a crisis, but rather a precaution designed to slash losses and protect valuable assets.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asian markets hit record highs in early trading this morning, led by Japan’s Nikkei, which gained around 1.5%, and South Korea’s Kospi, which was up over 2.0%. US futures are set to open mixed later today, with futures swinging between gains and losses.

Sensex	77,303	+0.8% (YTD: -9.2%)
NIFTY 50	24,111	+0.8% (YTD: -7.7%)
ADX	9,845	+0.5% (YTD: -1.4%)
DFM	5,910	+0.9% (YTD: -2.2%)
Tadawul	11,170	+0.4% (YTD: +6.4%)
EGX30	52,855	+0.8% (YTD: +26%)
Boursa Kuwait	8,523	+0.3% (YTD: +2.6%)
QSE	10,663	-0.05% (YTD: -0.9%)
S&P 500	7,165	+0.8% (YTD: +4.6%)
FTSE 100	10,382	+0.04% (YTD: +4.5%)
Euro Stoxx 50	5,895	+0.2% (YTD: +1.8%)
Brent crude	USD 108.1	+2.6%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 2.53	+0.5%
Gold	USD 4 701	-0.1%
BTC	USD 77,944	-0.1%

The values in the table above are listed according to the market position as of 3:30pm IST / 2pm GST.

CALENDAR

APRIL

29 April (Wednesday): Phase-2 Election Polling in West Bengal

MAY

1 May (Friday): Buddha Purnima.

4 May (Monday): Counting of election votes for all polling Indian States and Union Territories.

8-9 May (Friday-Saturday): ICC World Technology Convention, Jio World Convention Centre, Mumbai.

26 May (Tuesday): Eid Ul-Adha.

JUNE

15-17 June (Monday-Wednesday): Prime Minister Narendra Modi to attend G7 Summit in Evian, France.

18-21 June (Thursday-Sunday): Bharat Buildcon, Yashobhoomi, Dwarka, Delhi.

24-25 June (Wednesday-Thursday): India Homeland Security Expo, Bharat Mandapam, Pragati Maidan, New Delhi.

26 June (Friday): Muharram.

Signposted to happen sometime in 1H 2026:

Signing of India-Qatar FreeTrade Agreement (Details yet to be announced);
India-EU Trade and Technology Council Ministerial Meeting, Brussels, Belgium;
India to host the Brics Summit.

JULY

1-3 July (Wednesday-Friday): Seafood Expo Bharat, Chennai Trade Centre, Chennai.

3-4 July (Friday-Saturday): Rail & Transit Expo (RailTrans), Bharat Mandapam, New Delhi

3-4 July (Friday-Saturday): SOMS International Exhibition & Conference, Gandhinagar, Gujarat.

8-10 July (Wednesday-Friday): India Energy Storage Week, New Delhi.

14-17 July (Tuesday-Friday) Bharat Tex, New Delhi.

22-24 July (Wednesday-Friday): Rail & Metro Technology Conclave, Bharat Mandapam, New Delhi.

AUGUST

15 August (Saturday): Independence Day.

26 August (Wednesday): Prophet Mohammad’s Birthday.

SEPTEMBER

1-3 September (Tuesday-Thursday): India Energy Week, Dwarka, New Delhi.

7-9 September (Monday-Wednesday): iPHEX 2026 International Pharmaceutical Exhibition, Bharat Mandapam, New Delhi.

8-11 September (Tuesday-Friday): Global Fintech Fest, Mumbai.

17-19 September (Thursday-Saturday) : Semicon India Conference, Yashobhoomi, Delhi.

OCTOBER

2 October (Friday): Gandhi Jayanti (Mahatma Gandhi’s Birthday).

20 October (Tuesday): Dussehra.

NOVEMBER

24 November (Tuesday): Guru Nanak Jayanti.

DECEMBER

8-11 December (Tuesday-Thursday), Expand North Star, Dubai.

25 December (Friday): Christmas Day.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2H 2026:

Monsoon Session of Parliament is expected to be held in July/August in New Delhi (TBA);
Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting for the September cycle (TBA);
India Mobile Congress will likely be held in October in New Delhi (TBA).

JANUARY 2027

30 January-3 February (Saturday-Wednesday): Printpack India, India Expo Centre, Greater Noida (Delhi NCR).

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