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Friday, 1 May 2026

What We’re Tracking Today
The Big Story Today
Oil Watch
Economy
Planet Finance
Calendar

UAE’s Opec exit, a blessing for India?

Today at a glance

1

THE BIG STORY TODAY

What the UAE’s expected Opec exit means for India.
2

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

ENBD moves closer to RBL takeover.
3

OIL WATCH

Alternative routes lift Saudi, UAE crude supplies to India.
4

ECONOMY

India’s Finance Ministry warns of economic drag from Iran war.
5

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

State firms plan to add 62 new vessels to cut shipping exposure.
6

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

Price hike for industrial LPG and ATF.
7

PLANET FINANCE

Investors pile into mining and metals.

Friday, 1 May 2026

What We’re Tracking Today
The Big Story Today
Oil Watch
Economy
Planet Finance
Calendar
1

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

ENBD gets Sebi nod for RBL acquisition; 62 new vessels incoming

Good afternoon, and happy Friday. We are closing out the week with a light issue.

In our big story today, we examine how UAE’s Opec promises a long-term gain for India's energy security. Also, gulf heavyweights Saudi Arabia and the UAE are already adapting to the regional volatility, successfully leveraging alternative pipelines to bypass the chokepoint and keep India’s critical energy flows running.

That supply continuity will be vital as India's Finance Ministry officially sounds the alarm on a brewing war-led supply shock, warning that high crude prices and trade disruptions threaten the country's 7.4% GDP growth target.

Plus: Dubai’s Emirates NBD has secured a crucial regulatory green light to advance its landmark USD 3 bn bid to take control of Mumbai's RBL Bank.

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Watch this space

M&A — Dubai-based Emirates NBD (ENBD) is one step closer to finalize its landmark USD 3 bn acquisition of Mumbai-based lender RBL Bank, after securing ‘change of control’ approval from the Securities and Exchange Board of India, as per an exchange filing. The approval from the Indian market regulator, permits a shift in ownership and management control.

A major board rejig is underway at RBL Bank: Shayne Nelson, Group CEO of ENBD, is expected to join as part of the lender’s transition following the proposed acquisition, Moneycontrol reports, citing unnamed sources. His inclusion signals the strategic importance of India within ENBD’s global portfolio.

Greater ENBD representation: ENBD is seeking to secure a two-thirds majority on RBL’s board including executive powers, in line with regulatory requirements, the outlet added. This could translate into 7-9 nominees including other senior ENBD executives with India experience, as the UAE lender builds operational control. A shareholder meeting on Monday will seek approval to reconstitute the governing body and the new board will likely be appointed by early July, if the acquisition is completed in this quarter.

Multi-layered approvals in place: This paves the way for ENBD to finalize the transaction, in one of the country’s largest cross-border banking M&As. The bid has already received clearance from the the Central Bank of the UAE and the Reserve Bank of India — which permits ENBD to acquire as 74% of RBL’s share capital, subject to a minimum 51% holding, while capping voting rights at 26%. India’s competition regulator also approved the transaction earlier this year.

What’s next: ENBD will merge its existing India operations with RBL Bank’s 560 branches, with plans to add 200 new branches this fiscal year. This positions the Emirati lender to compete with domestic lenders while capturing high-value flows across remittances, trade finance and forex within its own network.

SHIPPING — State-run oil and shipping firms in India are planning to add 62 new vessels to the fleet in FY 2027 at an estimated INR 513.8 bn (USD 6.1 bn) to mitigate future disruptions affecting energy supplies, Hindu Businessline reports. Around 2.85 mn gross tonnage will be added including crude oil tankers and gas carriers to address deficiency in domestic fleet capacity.

The push follows recent disruptions to global shipping routes that have highlighted India’s reliance on foreign-flagged vessels to transport fossil fuel products. State-run companies, including Shipping Corporation of India and Oil and Natural Gas Corporation have already issued tenders for 34 with more to come in the coming months. This is part of a broader plan to meet a target of 437 vessels by FY 2042 as India scales its maritime capacity.

Why it matters: India’s fleet expansion is aimed at reducing its exposure to foreign vessels for energy trade. The blockade of Strait of Hormuz has pushed up freight and ins. costs for Indian refiners, strengthening the case for more domestic crude tankers and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) carriers.

ENERGY — State-run refiner Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) has raised prices of commercial LPG used by industrial consumers and aviation turbine fuel (ATF) sold to foreign airlines from Friday, Reuters reports. IOC raised commercial LPG cylinder prices by 47.8% and ATF for foreign airlines by 5.3%. Prices of household LPG and jet fuel for domestic airlines were kept unchanged.

Separately, the government lowered duty on diesel exports by 58.6% and on ATF exports by 21.4%, while keeping domestic petrol and diesel duties unchanged.

Out take: A hike in domestic LPG and retail fuel prices would likely trigger a public backlash. The government is walking a tightrope by passing higher LPG costs to industrial consumers, who are already grappling with supply constraints. Additionally, by selectively increasing ATF prices for foreign carriers, it provides temporary relief to domestic airlines that have warned they may shut down if jet fuel costs increase. Domestic ATF hikes are currently capped at 25% per month, and retail fuel prices remain unchanged at the refiners' expense. While this policy delays the cost-punch to ordinary consumers by shifting inflated prices to industries, it is unsustainable as crude oil prices remain above USD 100 / bbl.

Market watch

Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have pulled more capital from Indian equities in the first four months of 2026 than in all of 2025 combined, withdrawing INR 1.9 tn (USD 20.7 bn), as per National Securities Depository Limited data. FPIs pulled out a record INR 1.1 tn (USD 12.6 bn) in March as the war drove crude prices above USD 100 / bbl.

Valuations and currency pressures: India’s premium valuations, at around 21x price-to-earnings, look stretched on the back of a weakening INR and rising current account risks, with selling seen across financials, autos and metals. Flows may stabilize if crude eases below USD 90, with domestic institutional inflows providing partial support, analyst Vaqar Javed Khan told Business Standard.

Data point

INR 2 tn (USD 22 bn) — that is the value of iPhone exports from India in FY 2026, a record high supported by government incentives for smartphone manufacturers, Business Standard reports.

IN CONTEXT- India’s total smartphone exports reached INR 2.6 tn (USD 29.4 bn) during the year, with iPhone accounting for over 75% of shipments, making it the country’s single largest branded export. Export volumes have expanded rapidly over the past few years, rising from INR 93.5 bn in FY 2022.

PSA

India’s leading carriers — including Air India, Air India Express, and IndiGo — will resume flights to Qatar’s Hamad International Airport starting 1 May, following a nearly two-month suspension due to the war, the Embassy of India in Doha said in a post on X. However, it cautioned that flight schedules remain subject to the region's fragile security situation.

PLUS: Air India Express has restored flights to Bahrain while expanding operations across the Gulf, with the network changes effective since yesterday.

The big story abroad

Aside from the exchange of threats between Iran and the US, all eyes are on equities and earnings. Apple gave a solid sales forecast on the back of what it said was solid demand for its iPhone 17 and MacBook Neo, sending its shares up 4% in afterhours trading. It also announced a USD 100 bn share buyback program, and warned of the potential impacts of ongoing supply chain disruptions leading to MacBook shortages.

On the equities front, Wall Street is coming off of a record month, with stocks closing April at their highest since 2020, the Financial Times reports. Emerging markets also posted their strongest month since 2022. Both rallies were fueled by tech stocks and optimism over AI demand.

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2

THE BIG STORY TODAY

What the UAE’s expected Opec exit means for India

The UAE’s Opec exit could be a major long-term boon for India’s energy security, but the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz means any immediate benefits will remain out of reach, Prashant Vashishth, energy analyst and senior vice president at ICRA, tells EnterpriseAM.

The departure of the Gulf nation would remove roughly 3-4% of global oil production from Opec+ control, weakening the cartel’s ability to artificially manage supplies and driving a more favorable supply environment for massive crude importers like India, Vashishth observes.

Why it matters: If the UAE follows through on its plans to ramp up production capacity to 5 mn bbl / d by 2027, Indian refiners stand to gain due to favorable logistics. Shipping oil from the UAE to India takes just 3-4 days and costs between USD 40-70 / bbl. By comparison, sourcing crude from the Americas takes up to 45 days and costs a hefty USD 2.5-5 / bbl. This makes the UAE an incredibly attractive supplier for large Indian consumers looking for cost-effective flexibility.

Even an incremental increase of 1-1.5 mn bbl / d from the UAE could meaningfully impact global crude prices, similar to how the US shale expansion contributed to the 2014 price decline with an influx of around 2 mn bbl / d, Vashishth notes. The shift could also support deeper India-UAE energy ties, including potential expansion of strategic petroleum reserve arrangements linked to Abu Dhabi National Oil Company.

The diversification dilemma: While India has successfully diversified its crude sourcing — importing from 27 countries, with Russia accounting for more than 30% of imports in recent years — the sheer volume of Middle Eastern oil means the region cannot be entirely bypassed.

Around 20 mn bbl / d of crude, petroleum products, and natural gas liquids transit through the Strait of Hormuz globally. A larger output from the UAE would technically increase India’s overall dependence on the Middle East, though efforts by Gulf countries to build pipelines bypassing the Hormuz chokepoint could eventually mitigate some of that transit risk.

Don’t expect immediate relief: With an estimated 10 mn bbl / d of oil currently shut in the Middle East amid the regional war, any production increases from the UAE are moot in the short term. The constraint is not production capacity but export infrastructure, which remains the binding limit in the near term. “If the corridor is shut, then not much can be expected until the geopolitical situation subsides,” Vashishth warns.

Looking ahead: The UAE’s exit alone won’t singlehandedly solve India’s energy security vulnerabilities. The broader geopolitical fragility of the region is likely to push New Delhi to seriously accelerate investments into alternatives, Vashishth says. Expect India to ramp up its focus on renewables and push harder into flex-fuel vehicle infrastructure, including the adoption of ethanol blends, as it builds levers beyond simple crude and LNG diversification.

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3

OIL WATCH

Alternative routes lift Saudi, UAE crude supplies to India

Saudi Arabia and the UAE have decoupled their crude exports from the ongoing Strait of Hormuz crisis, successfully ramping up supply to India through alternative pipelines, according to Kpler data picked up by the Economic Times.

What we know so far: Saudi flows rose to about 697k bbl / d in April, marginally higher than last year’s monthly average of 668 bbl / d. Supplies from UAE also increased by 43% from last year’s monthly average to 619k bbl / d this month.

Alternative routes ease disruption: Saudi Arabia has redirected cargoes through its East-West pipeline to Red Sea ports, while the UAE has rerouted via Fujairah port, allowing shipments to continue despite chokepoint constraints. These adjustments have partly offset supply losses from Iraq, Kuwait, and Qatar, which have reduced India’s total crude imports by 15% compared to February.

Why it matters: While regional peers like Iraq, Kuwait, and Qatar remain geographically constrained, with their Indian exports curtailed by the Hormuz disruptions, Saudi Arabia and the UAE have managed to decouple their energy exports from regional volatility.

Diversification fills the gap: India has also boosted imports from Russia, Iran, Venezuela, and Oman to stabilize supply. However, the reliance on alternative routes and suppliers indicates structural vulnerabilities, with nearly half of India’s crude imports typically exposed to Hormuz-linked disruptions.

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4

ECONOMY

Finance Ministry warns of economic drag from Iran war

The Indian Finance Ministry flagged “external turbulence” arising from the Iran-Israel-US war as a downside risk to the country’s resilient economic growth, according to its monthly economic review. India’s initial 7.4% GDP forecast for the current fiscal is now under threat, after the economy recorded 7.6% real GDP growth in FY 2026. The optimistic outlook has been altered by macroeconomic instability resulting from the war in Iran and its downside impact.

“A ‘supply shock’ is apparent in the economy. An accompanying demand compression is a serious concern, given high prices, rising inflation, and a reduced pace of economic activity,” the report states, noting that input cost pressures arising from high crude oil prices will have a wide economic impact as a wide range of industries rely on the oil sector.

India’s crude basket has averaged around USD 113-115 / bbl in recent weeks, pushing up wholesale inflation to 3.8% in March, although retail inflation remains at 3.4%. “Rising wholesale prices indicate emerging cost‑push pressures that could transmit to consumer inflation if supply

disruptions persist,” the report reads.

Impact on trade: India’s total exports in March declined by 4.6% while imports were down by 5.7%, highlighting the impact of the war on the trade dynamics. Exports to the UAE fell nearly 62% y-o-y in March, with sharp declines in trade volumes with Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Qatar.

The GCC remains critical to India’s current account, contributing about 38% of total remittances in FY 2024, with the UAE alone contributing 19.2%. “A prolonged conflict could weigh on labour market conditions in the region and warrant a reassessment of current account projections,” the report warns.

The war has “seriously dented investors’ confidence,” leading to foreign money outflows from equity markets. The INR’s depreciation to a historic low of 95 per USD “reduces [USD]-denominated returns for foreign investors, prompting further outflows, which in turn exacerbates currency pressures.”

What’s next? While the war has altered the macro-outlook, India’s robust domestic demand, strategic policy measures, resilient financial system, and sustained public investment will provide much-needed support to the economy. The finance ministry assesses that repairing damaged oil and gas infrastructure across the Gulf could take months, prolonging the supply crunch. If this coincides with a weak harvest due to below-normal rainfall, the government warns that risks are skewed toward higher inflation and wider fiscal and current account deficits, accompanied by slower growth.

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5

PLANET FINANCE

Are we in the early stages of a commodity supercycle?

Growth in sectors like AI and defense is triggering a spending spree in a key sector that is powering the others — mining. The rush is part of a wider pivot away from tech stocks and toward hard assets, as infrastructure continues to cement its place as a key hinge on which other growing sectors, from AI to energy, depend.

By the numbers: Assets under management in mining exchange-traded funds doubled to USD 87.4 bn at the end of 1Q, according to ETFGI data picked up by Reuters. Investors poured USD 8.2 bn into mining during the quarter — a USD 10.8 bn reversal of outflows that had hit the sector in 1Q 2025, triggered by tariffs implemented by US President Donald Trump. Meanwhile, shares of the two largest mining companies, BHP and Rio Tinto, have both hit record highs this year.

Why are they having such a moment? In comparison with tech stocks, critical minerals and metals are seen as less exposed to AI disruption, Harding Loevner’s Anix Vyas said. For now, “copper is at the intersection of everything and critically undersupplied,” Regal Partners’ Charlie Aitken said, while also predicting the metal’s prices could double or triple in the next decade.

The regional war has also put things into perspective, highlighting the need for governments to shore up supply chains and secure disruption-proof access to critical materials and energy security.

A rethink of the traditional “safe haven”? Inflows into copper outperformed those into gold, as investors increasingly position themselves towards infrastructure-linked assets amid war-induced disruptions, effectively betting on more infrastructure spending across the energy sector. Oil and gas funds saw some USD 6 bn in inflows in the first quarter alone.

Where the risks lie: Metals, as an asset class, are more exposed to supply chain disruption, as we’re currently seeing through the Strait of Hormuz. Typically, fund sizes are smaller, meaning volatility can seem more amplified.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asian markets were mostly closed for the May Day holiday, but Japan’s Nikkei was marginally up, while the Topix is in the red. Over on Wall Street, futures are hovering near the flatline after a record April.

Sensex

76,913

-0.7% (YTD: -9.7%)

NIFTY 50

23,997

-0.7% (YTD: -8.1%)

ADX

9,764

-0.1% (YTD: -2.2%)

DFM

5,737

-0.4% (YTD: -5.1%)

Tadawul

11,187

-0.4% (YTD: 6.6%)

EGX30

51,760

-1.1% (YTD: 23.7%)

Boursa Kuwait

8,570

-0.3% (YTD: 3.2%)

QSE

10,487

-1.1% (YTD: -2.5%)

S&P 500

7,209

+1% (YTD: 5.3%)

FTSE 100

10,309

-0.6% (YTD: 3.8%)

Euro Stoxx 50

5,881

+1.1% (YTD: 1.5%)

Brent crude

USD 111.2

+0.8%

Natural gas (Nymex)

USD 2.8

+1.2%

Gold

USD 4,583

-1.01%

BTC

USD 77,266

+1.5%

The values in the table above are listed according to the market position as of 3:30pm IST / 2pm GST.

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CALENDAR

MAY

1 May (Friday): Buddha Purnima.

4 May (Monday): Counting of election votes for all polling Indian States and Union Territories.

8-9 May (Friday-Saturday): ICC World Technology Convention, Jio World Convention Centre, Mumbai.

26 May (Tuesday): Eid Ul-Adha.

JUNE

15-17 June (Monday-Wednesday): Prime Minister Narendra Modi to attend G7 Summit in Evian, France.

18-21 June (Thursday-Sunday): Bharat Buildcon, Yashobhoomi, Dwarka, Delhi.

24-25 June (Wednesday-Thursday): India Homeland Security Expo, Bharat Mandapam, Pragati Maidan, New Delhi.

26 June (Friday): Muharram.

Signposted to happen sometime in 1H 2026:

JULY

1-3 July (Wednesday-Friday): Seafood Expo Bharat, Chennai Trade Centre, Chennai.

3-4 July (Friday-Saturday): Rail & Transit Expo (RailTrans), Bharat Mandapam, New Delhi

3-4 July (Friday-Saturday): SOMS International Exhibition & Conference, Gandhinagar, Gujarat.

8-10 July (Wednesday-Friday): India Energy Storage Week, New Delhi.

14-17 July (Tuesday-Friday) Bharat Tex, New Delhi.

22-24 July (Wednesday-Friday): Rail & Metro Technology Conclave, Bharat Mandapam, New Delhi.

AUGUST

15 August (Saturday): Independence Day.

26 August (Wednesday): Prophet Mohammad’s Birthday.

SEPTEMBER

1-3 September (Tuesday-Thursday): India Energy Week, Dwarka, New Delhi.

7-9 September (Monday-Wednesday): iPHEX 2026 International Pharmaceutical Exhibition, Bharat Mandapam, New Delhi.

8-11 September (Tuesday-Friday): Global Fintech Fest, Mumbai.

17-19 September (Thursday-Saturday) : Semicon India Conference, Yashobhoomi, Delhi.

OCTOBER

2 October (Friday): Gandhi Jayanti (Mahatma Gandhi’s Birthday).

20 October (Tuesday): Dussehra.

NOVEMBER

24 November (Tuesday): Guru Nanak Jayanti.

DECEMBER

8-11 December (Tuesday-Thursday), Expand North Star, Dubai.

25 December (Friday): Christmas Day.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2H 2026:

  • Monsoon Session of Parliament is expected to be held in July/August in New Delhi (TBA);
  • Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting for the September cycle (TBA);
  • India Mobile Congress will likely be held in October in New Delhi (TBA).

JANUARY 2027

30 January-3 February (Saturday-Wednesday): Printpack India, India Expo Centre, Greater Noida (Delhi NCR).

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