Good afternoon, friends. The UAE capital continues finding its way into India through startups, IPOs, and M&A — regardless of what the region’s war does to sentiment everywhere else.

Adia picked up a piece of SG Mart, days after anchoring SBI Funds Management’s IPO. In today’s Spotlight, we look at why investors and companies along the India-UAE corridor are moving slower, more selectively, and away from hype-driven wagers toward businesses with real fundamentals.

PLUS- The next round of the UAE-India CEPA Council’s Startup Series is now open for pitches; reports suggest Emirates NBD is potentially circling IDBI Bank, again; and Yatra Online is bringing its travel-tech platform to Bahrain’s Kanoo Travel.

IDBI, take two

Is Emirates NBD back in the running for IDBI Bank? That’s what Reuters is suggesting, although Bloomberg reports it might have already lost the bid despite sweetening its offer this time around. Canada’s Fairfax Financial, which has been in the running for the combined 60.7% stake in Mumbai-listed IDBI Bank held by the government and state-run LIC, is close to receiving approval from India on a possibly sweetened bid, the business news service reports, citing people it says are familiar with the matter. Reuters says the process is expected to wrap within a month.

IN CONTEXT- India shelved the sale in March after bids from Emirates NBD and Fairfax fell short of the government’s price expectations, but it restarted the process this month. The privatization push began in 2022, while LIC has controlled IDBI since 2019 after stepping in to rescue the lender.

Why it matters: If Emirates NBD manages to get in on the bid, a stake in IDBI would offer it even more scale in India’s tightly guarded banking market, after it completed, a few weeks ago, its USD 2.8 bn acquisition of a 60% controlling stake in RBL Bank — India’s largest-ever FDI in its banking sector.

UAE-India incubator is back

Applications are now open for the UAE-India CEPA Council’s UAE-India Startup Series, according to a press release (pdf). Applications can be submitted till 31 August, with the final pitch event scheduled for October.

About the program: Launched by the UAE-India CEPA Council in partnership with Abu Dhabi’s Hub71, the program aims to help Indian startups expand into the UAE and wider international markets. It will identify high-potential startups through a multi-stage selection process before finalists pitch to investors, corporates, and ecosystem partners.

Why it matters: The initiative is a part of the UAE’s broader push to attract Indian startups and entrepreneurs, using the India-UAE trade pact as a gateway to deepen technology and innovation ties. For Indian founders, it offers access to Gulf investors, customers, and one of the region’s fastest-growing startup ecosystems.

The selected startups will be considered for Hub71’s programs in Abu Dhabi. Of these, three startups will be selected for Hub71’s Access program, and up to seven could join the Hub71 Immersion program. The second edition builds on a successful inaugural program that attracted more than 10k applications last year.

New tariff threat

A bipartisan US sanctions bill, backed by US President Donald Trump, could expose India to tariffs of up to 100% for continuing to buy Russian crude, even as New Delhi and Washington work toward a broader trade agreement, Bloomberg reports.

Why it matters: For Gulf oil suppliers, the tariffs could create a massive opening for national oil companies like Saudi Aramco and Adnoc to reclaim the lost market share in India.

What changed: The latest version of the Sanctioning Russia Act (2025) marks a significant climbdown from an earlier proposal that called for 500% tariffs on any country buying Russian oil, gas, or uranium. The proposal is now to authorize Trump to impose tariffs of up to 100% on the world’s five largest buyers of Russian oil and natural gas — including India and China — in an effort to squeeze Moscow’s energy revenues and push it toward ending the war with Ukraine.

The proposal reopens a key vulnerability for India as one of Russia’s largest crude buyers. Washington had briefly imposed an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods last year over Russian oil purchases before withdrawing the measure earlier this year.

India inflation tops RBI’s threshold

India’s June retail inflation print moved above the Reserve Bank of India’s 4% target, with the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising to 4.3% y-o-y from 3.9% in May, according to a National Statistics Office press release (pdf).

The wholesale price-index based inflation (WPI inflation) also rose to 9.8% last month, according to a Commerce and Industry Ministry press release.

Why it matters: The reading offers another gauge of India’s economic health for Gulf investors, as rising inflation driven by higher energy could potentially lead to an interest rate hike, lifting borrowing costs and hurting corporate margins. Further disruptions to energy flows from the GCC could add to inflationary pressure.

Food pressure returns: June’s inflation print served an early check that inflation in the country is becoming broad-based. Retail food prices rose by 5.3%, while wholesale food prices by 6.1%. A sustained food inflation could prompt the government to cut grain exports including to MENA markets to tame the prices — as it did with non-Basmati rice in 2023 in the wake of the Russia-Ukraine war.

Indian sailor killed in Hormuz

An Indian crew member was killed and eight others injured after Iranian cruise missiles struck two UAE tankers while crossing the Strait of Hormuz, the UAE Defense Ministry said on X. The Mombasa and Al Bahiyah tankers were transiting through the Omani territorial waters, increasing safety risks for Indian seafarers amid recent escalation in the war.

What happened next? New Delhi summoned Iranian Deputy Chief of Mission Mohammad Javad Hosseini to raise its protest over the attack while seeking reassurances and reiterating its call for immediate de-escalation.

The war of narratives: The UAE Defense Ministry condemned the attack as a serious violation of international law and said it reserved the right to protect its sovereignty and security. Meanwhile, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it targeted two “offending” supertankers after they ignored repeated warnings and tried to pass through what it described as a mined route.

ALSO- India’s Ports, Shipping, and Waterways Ministry will set up a real-time dashboard tracking every Indian seafarer on vessels operating in the Arabian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, and Gulf of Oman — regardless of vessel flag — and said it has put the safety of Indian mariners on high policy priority to adequate assistance to them and their families.

IN CONTEXT- The latest strike adds to a string of incidents involving Indian seafarers in Gulf waters. An Indian crew member remains missing after the GFS Galaxy was attacked off Oman, following a US attack in June that killed three Indian seafarers and an earlier Iranian strike in April.

Happening today

India’s comprehensive economic and trade agreement (CETA) with the UK enters into force today, alongside a double contribution convention (DCC), marking one of New Delhi’s most ambitious recent trade pacts. The UK will immediately eliminate tariffs on 96.8% of tariff lines, covering 97.7% of bilateral trade, while India will suspend tariffs on 30.3% of trade immediately and phase out another 47% over time, Hindu reports.

ICYMI- We flagged this as coming last month, when India and the UK agreed on an implementation date after resolving concerns over the UK’s steel safeguard measures. The CETA was signed last year and is expected to boost bilateral trade by USD 34.4 bn.

The DCC is the quieter victory: The convention exempts eligible Indian professionals temporarily working in the UK for up to five years from paying into the national ins. system if they already contribute to India’s social security system — a move expected to save Indian services exporters around USD 600 mn while benefiting more than 75k workers and some 900 firms.

Why this matters: With Washington’s tariffs still squeezing export-heavy sectors and a US trade framework yet to firm up, New Delhi has been racing to lock in alternative markets. It kickstarted talks with Bahrain in November last year, closed a CEPA with Oman weeks later in December, opened negotiations with the GCC in February, and signed a freetrade agreement with New Zealand in late April — with an India-EU FTA also expected to enter into force in 2027.

The big story abroad

International dailies have their hands full with geopolitical and business updates this morning. Here are the biggest developments.

Trump withdraws Hormuz cargo tax: Pressure from Gulf states prompted US President Donald Trump to walk back his proposed 20% fee on cargoes transiting the Strait of Hormuz, announcing that it would be replaced by direct Gulf investments in the US. The US military confirmed that its naval blockade on Iran took effect yesterday and that it launched fresh strikes on the Islamic Republic.

That’s not all — the US is also leading talks to revive a long-defunct Iraq-Syria oil pipeline to circumvent the Hormuz bottleneck and undermine Tehran’s leverage over global energy supplies. Washington is in talks with Baghdad, Damascus, and Chevron.

OpenAI’s first device will be an AI companion — a mobile, screenless speaker designed to answer questions, play media, and help control smart-home appliances. The product is still under development and is intended to be personalized and proactive, used primarily in users’ homes.

Could drugs be a new frontier for AI? Startup Chai Discovery, which specializes in using AI to pioneer new drugs, has secured USD 400 mn in fresh funding, valuing the company at USD 3.8 bn. The company also works with established pharma giants to help them to become post-AI companies, founder and president Jack Dent said.

US writers object to Warner Bros takeover: The Writers Guild of America has become the latest in a long line of challengers to Paramount’s Gulf-backed USD 110 bn acquisition of Warner Bros, insisting that the merger will harm competition and film and television writing quality. This week, 12 US states filed an antitrust lawsuit on similar grounds.

And over at the World Cup, Spain bested France 2-0 last night, marking its second time to book a spot in the tournament’s final showdown. They will play either Argentina or England in Sunday’s final in New Jersey.

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