Shell steps us gas deliveries to India to replace Gulf supplies

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

US, Iran leave talks without an agreement + Ceasefire lifts sentiment, but risks linger for Indian industry

Good afternoon, readers. We went into the weekend discussing Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and somehow, just a couple of days later, it’s now the US threatening to blockade the strait. US President Donald Trump said the US would prevent “any and all ships” from entering or leaving the waterway, though it’s unclear how far it might go and whether it will get help from other countries.

This came as negotiations between the US and Iran collapsed over the weekend. After 21 hours in Islamabad, negotiators from the two countries walked away without an agreement, each blaming the other for holding the line on core demands.

US Vice President JD Vance said Iran refused to accept what he described as Washington’s “final and best offer,” centered on an explicit commitment not to pursue nuclear weapons, Reuters reports. Iranian officials described the US’ demands as “unreasonable,” TRT World reports, citing Iranian state media.

The problem: The two sides are negotiating entirely different endgames. Iran is pushing for a broad settlement, covering sanctions relief, regional scrutiny, and sovereignty issues like the Strait of Hormuz, while the US is pursuing a narrower arrangement, focusing on Iran’s nuclear program — a major point of contention in the latest round of talks — along with the Strait of Hormuz and regional de-escalation.

Yes, but: No one’s calling time on diplomacy just yet. Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Esmaeil Baqaei said no one expected an agreement in a single session and that the road to diplomacy wasn’t shut off.

The strait did see some movement though: Three supertankers carrying crude passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday, the first to exit the Gulf since the ceasefire, while three empty tankers were sailing into the waterway on Sunday, Reuters reports, citing shipping data. However, hundreds are still stuck waiting for clearance, and some were abruptly making U-turns mid-journey, Bloomberg reports.

Market reax: Indian benchmarks tumbled this morning, tracking a broader retreat in Asian equities as Brent crude jumped 7.3% to USD 102 / bbl. The Nifty 50 slid 1.78%, while the Sensex shed 1.83% in early morning trade. The reversal comes after both indices posted their strongest weekly gains in five years last week — climbing 6% — on the back of a fragile ceasefire. The INR also declined 0.7% to 93.3 per USD.

Watch this space

INDUSTRY WATCH — The two-week US-Iran ceasefire has lifted sentiment across India’s industrial sector, but top industry leaders believe the relief may be fleeting as disruptions linked to the Strait of Hormuz continue to affect costs and supplies, Economic Times reports.

Sentiment rebounds cautiously: The truce offers a window for recovery and could support demand, Tata Consumer Products CEO Sunil D’Souza told the daily. This sentiment was echoed by Parle Products’ Arup Chauhan, one of India’s largest biscuit producers, who told the daily: “The ceasefire is definitely a breather and consumer sentiment should look up.”

Supply chains may take years to fully recover, with prices of raw inputs hiked by 10-15% amid damaged gas infrastructure in the Middle East, warned Shekhar Bajaj of consumer electricals giant Bajaj Electricals. Stabilization could take 1-2 months but is contingent on sustained peace, said Sunil Kataria, MD at agribusiness firm Godrej Agrove.

Why it matters: Price hikes across consumer goods are unlikely to be rolled back soon, industry executives say. For India, heavily exposed and reliant on Gulf energy imports, the ceasefire signals temporary respite, while for the MENA region, restoring stable flows is critical to sustaining demand.

AVIATION — Dubai narrows the runway: Dubai has limited foreign airlines to one daily flight per carrier through 31 May, Reuters reports, citing a private email sent to airlines by Dubai Airports.

The move is causing panic among carriers in India, DXB’s largest source market with 11.9 mn passengers last year. The Federation of Indian Airlines told the newswire the curbs create an uneven playing field, as they do not apply to UAE carriers like Emirates and Flydubai, and could lead to “substantial” revenue losses. IndiGo added the restrictions have “significantly constrained” operations, leaving parts of its fleet underutilized.

Why it matters: This move will further strain operations of Indian airlines which are facing mounting revenue losses and higher input costs which canceled over 10k flights to the MENA region during the US-Israel-Iran war. India’s airports regulator has already slashed landing and parking charges by 25% to shield the carriers from further losses.

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Data point

20.82 mn tonnes — that’s the amount of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) India is expected to import in this fiscal year, reflecting the country’s continued reliance on external supply to meet a majority of its domestic requirement, Hindu Businessline reports.

India’s LPG sourcing is concentrated in the Gulf, with most cargoes from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Oman transiting the Strait of Hormuz, exposing supply to disruption risks along a key energy corridor.

The big story abroad

For once, the international business press is focusing on something other than the war: Hungary’s elections. The European country just voted out Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who’s been in office for 16 years, opting instead for center-right rival Peter Magyar. Orbán’s critics accuse him of being authoritarian — his opposition to the EU’s efforts to help Ukraine fight Russia, as well as the economic decline Hungary has seen in recent years, have contributed to his falling out of favor.

ALSO- Look out for earnings season to start this week, with Goldman Sachs set to report its earnings today. Expect an interesting week, given the double whammy of earnings against the backdrop of the war.

Circle your calendar

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays, and news triggers.

Shell ramps up LNG supply to India

UK-based energy major Shell has stepped up LNG deliveries to India and captured a large share of recent fertilizer procurement orders amid the Gulf crunch, PTI reports. The company supplied 4 tn British thermal units (tBtu) of natural gas out of the 6 tBtu procured by Indian fertilizer firms in recent tenders, as authorities prioritize feedstock for urea production.

Why it matters: The shift follows interruptions to Qatari supplies — which typically account for 45-50% of India’s LNG imports — after a force majeure declaration affected around 11.2 mn tonnes (mtpa) of cargo out of India’s 27 mtpa intake.

Market position: Shell’s India arm imported its largest-ever monthly LNG volumes in March and was a leading supplier of imported gas during the period, supplying fertilizer plants and industrial users. The company sourced LNG cargoes from multiple markets — including Oman, Australia, and Nigeria — allowing it to redirect supply to India amid disruptions.

Shell seems to be weathering the regional energy storm better than its peers. The global energy giant is relatively insulated from the logistics constraints currently strangling the Strait of Hormuz thanks to its massive global LNG portfolio and its own dedicated shipping fleet, the news outlet reports, citing company sources. This vertical integration has allowed the company to pivot and divert cargoes with a speed that state-run competitors simply cannot match, Hindu Businessline reports.

Shell’s supplies are proving to be critical in easing domestic shortages through this month. Gas supply to urea plants increased to 95% of the required amount from about 70% last week. Industrial consumers, which had seen supply cuts of up to 40%, have received incremental allocations as availability improves.

What’s next: Shell is expected to remain active in the market, with further participation likely in mid-April fertilizer sector tenders involving an additional 12 tBtu of gas.

Iran shadow fleet docks in India under special waiver

India’s shipping ministry has granted special docking rights to four Iran-linked tankers arriving with Iranian crude at Gujarat’s Sikka port along the western coast, Reuters reports, citing unnamed sources. India’s largest refiner, Reliance Industries, had requested a special waiver from the ministry as Iranian shadow vessels lack international ins. and safety certifications.

Pragmatism over protocol: All four vessels are under US sanctions and over 20 years old. India typically bars aging ships that lack seaworthiness certifications from docking at its ports, making this a one-time exemption tied to the current supply crunch. It remains unclear if Reliance will process the cargoes at its refinery, given the sanctions risks, the newswire added. This comes on the back of a temporary US waiver allowing purchases of Iranian oil at sea, which is due to expire on 19 April.

Why it matters: The waivers suggest that Indian authorities are prioritizing energy security over strict adherence to international maritime policy or alignment with Washington. This flexibility is notable as it marks the first time since 2019 that Reliance — which usually avoids supplies from sanctioned sources — has moved to feedstock Iranian crude into its operations. Both Reliance and the Indian Oil Corporation are now working quickly to offload mns of barrels before the temporary waiver window closes.

First Iranian crude cargoes in years

MEANWHILE- Two US-sanctioned supertankers carrying Iranian crude have anchored off Indian ports, even as the US readies to tighten enforcement in the Strait of Hormuz, Bloomberg reports. The VLCC Felicity, linked to Iran’s state tanker fleet, is anchored off Sikka with some 2 mn barrels loaded from Kharg Island. Another shadow fleet vessel with unclear ownership, Jaya, is near Paradip Port on India’s east coast. End-buyers remain unconfirmed, although Indian Oil, Reliance, and Bharat Petroleum use these ports to receive crude shipments.

Higher export duties on diesel + ATF

India’s finance ministry has raised export duties on diesel by 158% and aviation turbine fuel by 42% as it moves to prioritize domestic availability amid disrupted global energy supplies, Reuters reports. The changes take effect immediately.

The duty hike builds on measures introduced last month, when the government first imposed windfall taxes on fuel exports and cut excise duty on petrol and diesel. In parallel, it capped monthly domestic jet fuel price increases at 25% in April to limit the pass-through of higher fuel costs to airfares. Jet fuel accounts for up to 40% of airline operating expenses.

Shift in gas consumption

India is upping the supply of smaller liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) cylinders and accelerating piped natural gas (PNG) connections amid a supply crunch, PTI reports. Sales of 5 kg LPG cylinders have crossed 1.3 mn, a nearly 30% m-o-m increase, while more than 424k PNG connections have been activated since March.

Endimension using UAE as launchpad to deliver its AI radiologist to the world

The global healthcare ecosystem is grappling with a severe shortage of radiologists. In India, a population of 1.4 bn relies on a mere 10-15k specialists, while 76% of hospitals in the UAE report similar deficits. Endimension, an IIT Mumbai-incubated healthcare AI startup, is stepping up to bridge this gap.

“Our mission is to help healthcare providers solve the problem of radiologist shortage using AI augmentation,” Bharadwaj Kss, co-founder of Endimension, tells EnterpriseAM. “The vision is to create what we call a 10x radiologist. AI makes a radiologist 10 times more efficient and productive.”

Endimension provides an end-to-end AI platform that seamlessly integrates with X-ray, CT, and MRI scanners. As soon as a scan is taken, the software processes it and generates preliminary insights within minutes. In complex scans involving thousands of image slices, the AI acts as a vital safety net, spotting tiny abnormalities that a fatigued human eye might miss.

“While other companies are providing AI algorithms, we are providing an end-to-end full-stack platform,” Bharadwaj explains. “It is not just providing some algorithm insights, but it is actually helping in the day-to-day workflow […] triaging critical patients, generating draft reports, and ultimately improving operational efficiency.”

Their business model is tailored for accessibility, particularly for small and medium-sized facilities. Operating as a SaaS platform, Endimension offers a “pay-per-scan” model that eliminates prohibitive upfront costs. “We are providing access to the entire system [at no] cost. The end users are charged only if they use the platform to analyze a scan,” Co-founder Venkata Apparao Madiraju tells us.

Endimension currently serves over 800 hospitals and diagnostic centers, processing some 2 mn patient scans every year. Now, the startup is looking beyond India’s borders, leveraging the India-UAE CEPA Council’s Startup Series to propel its global expansion. “For a small startup, it’s very difficult to go into a new geography, especially in healthcare, because there are a lot of regulations,” Bharadwaj states. The council facilitated introductions into the local market and connected Endimension with Hub71, Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala-backed tech ecosystem.

Hub71 provided a helping hand: Currently participating in Hub71’s Access program, the company is engaging with local hospitals and investors. “We think that the UAE is the first step to go global, and from here we can reach out to foreign investors and then go to Europe and the US,” Bharadwaj tells us.

Backed by USD 1.3 mn in seed funding from Indian investors (like Inflection Point Ventures) and government grants, Endimension is doing pilot projects with the IndiaAI program and is collaborating with Mumbai’s Tata Memorial Hospital. Furthermore, they hold over 10 peer-reviewed publications and accolades from the Asian Entrepreneurship Awards in Japan. Endimension now aims to reach 100 mn patients in the next five years and actively plans to secure Series A funding in the MENA region, Bharadwaj told us.

Truce or not, the damage is done

Even if a ceasefire holds, the economic fallout from the Iran war is already rippling far beyond the region, World Bank President Ajay Banga told Reuters, sketching out a global economy that slows, heats up, and grows more fragile the longer the conflict lingers.

Two paths, one problem

The World Bank’s outlook hinges on two primary scenarios: A ceasefire baseline where global growth slows by 0.3-0.4 points, and a prolonged war that triggers a full 1.0-point contraction, Banga said. Inflation is projected to jump 200-300 basis points in a ceasefire scenario, with an additional 0.9-point spike if fighting continues.

The toll on emerging markets: The World Bank slashed 2026 growth forecasts for emerging markets and developing economies to 3.65% in 2026, down from 4% in October, with a downside scenario pulling it as low as 2.6%. Meanwhile, inflation projections have jumped to 4.9%, up from a 3% estimate, potentially climbing to 6.7% if the conflict persists.

Where the shock is coming from

Energy markets are leading the disruption, with oil prices surging by roughly 50%, while supply chains for gas, fertilizers, and even niche inputs like helium are under strain. Aviation and tourism — early casualties in any regional conflict — are also absorbing fresh blows.

The fate of the Strait of Hormuz is adding pressure. The longer the strait remains closed, the deeper and more lasting the damage will be to critical energy infrastructure.

And the two-week truce appears increasingly tenuous. Exchanges between Israel and Iran, coupled with flopped peace talks, proved how quickly the situation could deteriorate — keeping markets on edge.

Crisis tools are being deployed

To support vulnerable economies, the bank is activating crisis-response channels to fast-track liquidity, particularly for energy-importing nations. These mechanisms allow countries to bypass new board approvals and tap into previously authorized but undisbursed funds. Despite these measures, high debt and currently high-interest rates leave little room for error in these economies.

What not to do: Banga cautions against broad energy subsidies, which could further destabilize already strained fiscal positions.

If there is a longer-term takeaway, it’s structural. The crisis is highlighting the need for energy diversification and self-sufficiency. The World Bank nodded to this shift by re-entering nuclear financing alongside continued support for renewables and hydro. Countries that invested early are already seeing the benefits — Nigeria leveraged its large-scale refining capacity to increase output and supply aviation fuel regionally, insulating itself from the worst of the shock, Banga said.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asian markets opened lower this morning on news of the US blockade. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng shed 1.2%, while Japan’s Nikkei declined 0.6% and the Shanghai Composite was down 0.3%. Wall Street futures were also in the red.

Sensex	77,034	-0.6% (YTD: -9%)
NIFTY 50	23,873	-0.7% (YTD: -7.9%)
ADX	9,780	-0.5% (YTD: -2.07%)
DFM	5,640	-1.3% (YTD: -5.4%)
Tadawul	11,405	+0.8% (YTD: +7.8%)
EGX30	49,079	+1.0% (YTD: +17.3%)
Boursa Kuwait	7,952	+0.4% (YTD: -4.6%)
QSE	10,626	-0.03% (YTD: -1.2%)
S&P 500	6,816	-0.1% (YTD: -0.4%)
FTSE 100	10,567	-0.3% (YTD: +6.7%)
Euro Stoxx 50	5,870	-0.9% (YTD: +2.3%)
Brent crude	USD 102	+7.9%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 2.67	+1.1%
Gold	USD 4,712	-0.7%
BTC	USD 70,815	-1.02%

The values in the table above are listed according to the market position as of 3:30pm IST / 2pm GST.

New Delhi ramps up Gulf diplomacy to shield trade corridors

India has stepped up its diplomatic outreach across the GCC following the US-Iran ceasefire, with senior ministers engaging with the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar over energy supplies, disruptions to trade, and securing maritime routes.

Security concerns take center stage with the UAE: India’s External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar met with UAE President Mohamed bin Zayed in Abu Dhabi yesterday to discuss rising risks to maritime security and global energy supplies while signaling a coordinated approach to protecting critical sea lanes such as the Strait of Hormuz, state news agency Wam reports. The two reviewed progress under the bilateral trade pact, centered on scaling investments, trade, and technology linkages aligned with shared growth priorities.

Saudi coordination on supply chains: Indian Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal and his Saudi counterpart Majid bin Abdullah Al Qasabi agreed to step up coordination to stabilize supply chains and accelerate trade talks in a call on Saturday, as per a press release. The two ministers discussed the strain on regional logistics and agreed to coordinate measures to restore smooth trade flows.

Qatar anchors energy security: Indian Petroleum and Natural Gas Minister Hardeep Singh was in Doha on Saturday to discuss securing reliable supplies and expanding cooperation across the energy value chain with Qatar’s Energy Affairs State Minister and QatarEnergy CEO Saad Al Kaabi, according to a press release. QatarEnergy reaffirmed its role as a dependable supplier to India, while the ministers welcomed the ceasefire and stressed the need to stabilize the energy market.

Our take: India’s diplomatic push coincided with the high-stakes US-Iran talks in Islamabad. New Delhi is signaling that it is joining forces with Gulf capitals to ensure that any potential settlement regarding the Strait of Hormuz protects India’s access to the waterway and prevents long-term disruption to its energy supply and trade corridors — critical factors for India given its reliance on imports.

CALENDAR

APRIL

15-17 April (Wednesday-Friday): Entrepreneur Tech & Innovation Summit, Bengaluru.

22-24 April (Wednesday-Friday): RenewX, Chennai Trade Centre, Chennai.

MAY

1 May (Friday): Buddha Purnima.

26 May (Tuesday): Eid Al Adha.

JUNE

15-17 June (Monday-Wednesday): Prime Minister Narendra Modi to attend G7 Summit in Evian, France.

18-21 June (Thursday-Sunday): Bharat Buildcon, Yashobhoomi, Dwarka, Delhi.

24-25 June (Wednesday-Thursday): India Homeland Security Expo, Bharat Mandapam, Pragati Maidan, New Delhi.

26 June (Friday): Muharram.

Signposted to happen sometime in 1H 2026:

Signing of India-Qatar FreeTrade Agreement (Details yet to be announced);
India-EU Trade and Technology Council Ministerial Meeting, Brussels, Belgium;
India to host the Brics Summit.

JULY

1-3 July (Wednesday-Friday): Seafood Expo Bharat, Chennai Trade Centre, Chennai.

3-4 July (Friday-Saturday): Rail & Transit Expo (RailTrans), Bharat Mandapam, New Delhi

8-10 July (Wednesday-Friday): India Energy Storage Week, New Delhi.

14-17 July (Tuesday-Friday) Bharat Tex, New Delhi.

22-24 July (Wednesday-Friday): Rail & Metro Technology Conclave, Bharat Mandapam, New Delhi.

AUGUST

15 August (Saturday): Independence Day.

26 August (Wednesday): Prophet Mohammad’s Birthday.

SEPTEMBER

1-3 September (Tuesday-Thursday): India Energy Week, Dwarka, New Delhi.

8-11 September (Tuesday-Friday): Global Fintech Fest, Mumbai.

7-9 September (Monday-Wednesday): Bengaluru Space Expo, Bangalore International Exhibition Centre, Bengaluru.

7-9 September (Monday-Wednesday): IPHEX, Bharat Mandapam, New Delhi.

17-19 September (Thursday-Saturday): Semicon India Conference, Yashobhoomi, Delhi.

OCTOBER

2 October (Friday): Gandhi Jayanti (Mahatma Gandhi’s Birthday).

20 October (Tuesday): Dussehra.

NOVEMBER

24 November (Tuesday): Guru Nanak Jayanti.

DECEMBER

8-11 December (Tuesday-Thursday), Expand North Star, Dubai.

25 December (Friday): Christmas Day.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2H 2026:

Monsoon Session of Parliament is expected to be held in July/August in New Delhi (TBA);
Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting for the September cycle (TBA);
India Mobile Congress will likely be held in October in New Delhi (TBA).

JANUARY 2027

30 January-3 February (Saturday-Wednesday): Printpack India, India Expo Centre, Greater Noida (Delhi NCR).

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Shell steps us gas deliveries to India to replace Gulf supplies

Today at a glance

US, Iran leave talks without an agreement + Ceasefire lifts sentiment, but risks linger for Indian industry