PNG gets priority amid supply crunch in India

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

Adnic to enter Gift City with reins. branch; India-Gulf trade drops up to 66% in March

Good afternoon, everyone. We celebrate the news this morning of an indefinite ceasefire extension between the US and Iran, after US President Donald Trump made the announcement hours before the ceasefire was set to expire. The extension gives the two nations more time to negotiate.

How indefinite are we talking? Trump said the ceasefire will be extended until Iran submits its proposal and “discussions are concluded, one way or the other.” Washington’s blockade will continue until an agreement is reached.

It remains unclear where Iran stands: In the absence of a response from Tehran’s top leadership, Iran’s Tasnim News Agency stated that Tehran never sought a ceasefire extension and reiterated threats to break the US blockade of its ports by force. An adviser to Iran’s lead negotiator dismissed Trump’s announcement as insignificant.

As expected, global oil prices retreated on the news, despite an initial uptick at the opening of Asian trading earlier this morning. Brent crude is currently down 0.4% to USD 98.09 / bbl.

Mixed market response: The MSCI Asia Pacific ex-Japan Index eased 0.14%, dropping from a seven-week high. Japan’s Nikkei gained 0.5%, and South Korea’s Kospi eased around 0.6% in early trading this morning. US stocks are set to open in the green, with futures recording gains across the board.

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FINANCE — Abu Dhabi National Ins. Company (Adnic) will set up a reins. branch in Gujarat International Finance Tec-City (Gift City) after receiving regulatory clearance, CNBC reports, citing company disclosures. The approval enables Adnic to provide reins. out of India’s International Financial Services Centre, placing it within the country’s offshore financial regime for cross-border business.

Why it matters: India is positioning Gift City as a base for offshore ins. and reins. activity. The entry of foreign players such as Adnic expands Emirati presence within that ecosystem while supporting deeper India-UAE trade and investment linkages.

BACKGROUND- India and the UAE have agreed to facilitate the setup of UAE companies in Gift City, with First Abu Dhabi Bank and DP World among early movers. Mashreq is also planning an expansion there, while Abu Dhabi Investment Authority secured an approval in 2024 to set up a local unit and launch a USD 4-5 bn fund.

TRADE — India’s trade flows with the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq dropped by up to 66% y-o-y in March in light of the war disrupting shipping routes, energy supplies, and regional demand, according to data from the Commerce and Industry Ministry.

By the numbers: Exports to the UAE fell 61.9% to USD 1.2 bn, while imports dropped 66.3% to USD 2.5 bn. Meanwhile, exports to the Kingdom declined 45.6%, while imports fell 37.3% to USD 2 bn. Imports from Iraq plunged 64.3%. The decline reflects logistical bottlenecks in the Strait of Hormuz, elevated freight and ins. costs, and weakened trade activity across the Gulf region. India’s total goods and services exports saw an aggregate 4.5% downturn, indicating a broader impact on trade momentum.

Why it matters: The GCC is India’s largest trading bloc, accounting for over 15% of the country's total global trade. A prolonged blockade of sea transit will lead trade volumes to drop further in the coming months while adding to macroeconomic pressures along the economic corridor. However, the bottleneck’s impact will be uneven among India’s Middle East partners — Oman, less affected by the Hormuz blockade, stands out to gain as its trade with India already increased by 112% y-o-y in March.

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Data point

INR 2.91 tn (USD 31.11 bn) — that’s the value of India’s pharma exports in FY 2026, representing a 2% y-o-y increase despite global headwinds, The Hindu reports, citing data from the Pharma Export Promotion Council of India.

A sharp downturn in March saw exports plunge 23.1% y-o-y to USD 2.83 bn. This sudden reversal was driven by regional conflict-related shipping disruptions and new US tariffs that hampered major trade routes.

The big story abroad

The global front pages are focused on US President Donald Trump’s announcement of an extended ceasefire between the US and Iran, which we dive into in the news well, above. Also making headlines this morning:

How did Warsh’s confirmation hearing go? Trump’s Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh affirmed the Fed’s independence during his Senate confirmation hearing, stating that Trump has not attempted to “predetermine, commit, fix, or decide on any interest rate decision.” Warsh called for major reforms at the Fed, including a new framework for handling inflation, and took issue with the central bank’s “forward guidance” — the practice of signaling the future trajectory of rates.

And your daily dose of AI news: SpaceX has gained the “right to acquire” AI startup Cursor for USD 60 bn, agreeing to pay USD 10 bn if it does not proceed with the transaction. The potential acquisition of Cursor — which enables users to edit code with AI — is seen as a way for Elon Musk to catch up in the AI race ahead of SpaceX’s IPO.

Market watch

Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have withdrawn a record USD 18 bn (INR 1.68 tn) from Indian equities so far in 2026, with bulk of selling concentrated in March, when investors pulled out USD 11.8 bn (INR 1.1 tn) as the Iran war triggered a spike in oil prices and risk-averse market sentiment, Business Standard reports.

Market mirror the stress: The INR’s depreciation — down 3.5% this year — has further reduced returns for foreign investors. The Sensex has declined nearly 8% and the Nifty 7% y-o-y so far this year. A sustained FPI return is contingent on easing geopolitical tensions, lower oil prices, and a stabilizing currency and earnings.

Circle your calendar

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays, and news triggers.

Iran war prompts a pivot to piped gas in India

Supply constraints prompt a shift in gas consumption: India’s piped natural gas (PNG) network is expanding rapidly, with over 501k new connections added since March as the war accelerates efforts to transition eligible households away from cylindered gas, PTI reports, citing governmental data.

Why now: The push comes as authorities manage supply constraints linked to disruptions in the Middle East, with demand being redirected toward pipeline-based supply in areas where the infrastructure is already in place. Registrations for PNG connections in March have crossed 568k, while around 39.4k households have given up canned gas after transitioning to pipeline supply.

Why it matters: Expanding PNG coverage provides an immediate substitution option for LPG in connected urban areas, helping manage distribution pressures while maintaining stable household supply.

Driving the shift: Authorities have expedited approvals for pipeline connectivity and asked city gas distributors to prioritize PNG connections for users already within network coverage. Gas supply has been prioritized for domestic PNG and transport segments, with fertilizer units and industrial users taking second priority.

Supply adjustment: Household LPG supply continues without disruption, while availability for commercial users has been restored to about 70% of pre-crisis levels. “Our domestic LPG supply for household kitchens remains normal. Compared to bookings, there have been no reports of stock-outs at any LPG distributor. As for commercial LPG, it has been impacted, but supply has been restored to about 70%,” Sujata Sharma, joint secretary at the Petroleum and Natural Gas Ministry, said (watch, runtime: 1:32) during a briefing.

Supply of smaller 5-kg LPG cylinders has been increased to support migrant workers, with more than 1.9 mn units distributed since late March alongside targeted outreach campaigns, while overall LPG consumption remains at about 4.5-4.6 mn cylinders per day.

What’s next: The current PNG expansion drive will continue through June as authorities push for faster connections within existing city gas infrastructure.

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background and outside sources.)

A new AI rulebook

India is inching closer to a unified legislative framework for artificial intelligence (AI), setting the stage for comprehensive oversight of companies offering AI products and services in the country, Business Standard reports, citing unnamed officials. The sweeping regulations are expected to cover a wide range of tech players, including firms developing language models and chatbot systems.

Setting the boundaries: The proposed framework is designed to establish clear operating perimeters for AI developers and service providers. Alongside the new guidelines, authorities are expected to introduce regulatory sandboxes, providing a controlled, secure environment for companies to test their systems before a full-scale market rollout.

Why it matters: As the AI sector accelerates, a single regulatory playbook replaces fragmented guidelines, providing much-needed clarity for both domestic startups and foreign tech giants operating in India. The move signals the government's intent to balance rapid innovation with strict oversight, ensuring that cutting-edge AI systems are deployed safely.

What we know: Companies developing or offering AI tools will be required to comply with domestic laws and be held accountable for their system, the news outlet reports. Alongside regulation, the panel is expected to narrow government AI spending toward a smaller set of use cases that can show measurable results in 12-18 months. Healthcare, agriculture, and education are among the sectors being considered. The government is also preparing to engage with industry players to map job roles that are most vulnerable to AI adoption, with the aim of designing targeted reskilling pathways.

Who’s who: The regulatory framework was proposed by Artificial Intelligence Governance and Economic Group (AIGEG), which brings together senior government officials across ministries, along with senior advisors, to steer policy direction.

What’s next? The AIGEG is expected to examine emerging AI capabilities, identify risks and regulatory gaps, and help guide the government’s policy response as consultations broaden.

Moody’s cuts India growth forecast as energy risks mount

Ratings agency Moody’s slashed India’s FY 2027 growth forecast to 6% from 6.8%, warning that prolonged energy supply disruptions could widen India’s trade deficit and strain fiscal balances.

What triggered this? The lowered forecast comes on the back of weaker private consumption and slowing industrial activity, as higher energy and input costs linked to the Iran war ripple through the economy. Brent crude has risen over 31% since late February, keeping volatility elevated and raising import costs for India, the world’s third-largest oil importer. Higher oil prices are expected to push up inflation, compress corporate margins, and limit policy flexibility.

IN CONTEXT- India’s FY 2027 growth outlook remains contested as global uncertainty escalates. SBI Research retained a relatively optimistic projection of 6.8-7.1%, while Fitch Group’s research arm trimmed its forecast to 7% from 7.7%, citing spillovers from the war.

Sector-wide risks: Disruptions to energy and fertilizer supply chains are hiking up input costs across multiple sectors. Fuel-intensive industries such as cement, chemicals, and aviation are likely to see margin compression, while state-run oil marketing companies are absorbing losses due to capped retail prices — moving the cost burdens to their balance sheets. By contrast, infrastructure and utilities remain relatively insulated due to regulated returns and policy support.

Why it matters: Any prolonged disruption in the Gulf — the source of over a third of India’s remittances — could weaken inflows, widen the current account deficit and pressure the INR further, which has already depreciated 6.2% against the USD in the last six months. Elevated risk premiums are likely to keep external financing conditions tight. Sustained disruption could entrench inflation and constrain fiscal and monetary responses, testing India’s macro stability and investor confidence.

India, South Korea target USD 54 bn trade by 2030

India and South Korea are eyeing doubling bilateral trade to USD 54 bn by 2030, up from the current USD 27 bn, according to a statement from the Commerce and Industry Ministry. The two countries agreed to fast-track the upgrade of their 2010 comprehensive economic partnership agreement to improve market access and resolve trade imbalances. The announcement came during South Korean President Lee Jae Myung’s India visit.

Focus sectors expand: The two countries will collaborate across energy, critical minerals, semiconductors, shipbuilding, and steel, while setting up ministerial-level economic cooperation mechanisms. With the Iran war tightening global energy supplies, Lee’s visit centered on cooperation to secure energy resources and key inputs like naphtha. A joint business forum was attended by leaders of Korean conglomerates including Samsung, LG Group, and Hyundai.

A new steel JV: South Korean steelmaking major Posco is committing USD 1.09 bn through 2031 for setting up a 6 mn-ton integrated steel plant in Odisha through a JV with India’s JSW Steel, as per an exchange filing. Posco’s solo attempt to enter Odisha ended in a high-profile exit in 2017 after years of local resistance, regulatory and land-acquisition gridlock.

Why it matters: South Korea is an important source of foreign direct investment in India’s heavy industries including metallurgical, automobiles, machine tools, and plant processing equipment. India is pushing for a more balanced trade relationship, running a deficit of USD 15.4 bn with the country.

MyCrane crosses 1k users, suppliers in India

Dubai-based crane procurement platform MyCrane has crossed the 1k mark for both customers and suppliers in India, as the company scales up its presence in the country, according to a press release. It has also executed over 100 paid orders locally.

The platform is being used by Indian players including Larsen & Toubro, Tata Group entities, Adani Group, and the Indian units of Linde, Technip, and Thyssenkrupp to source equipment for infrastructure and industrial projects. MyCrane has also introduced its trading vertical in India, offering crane sales, leasing, and maintenance services. The company said the segment was launched as part of a broader USD 50 mn investment.

Rising rates squeeze private credit funds

Private credit funds are facing mounting funding pressure as borrowing costs rise and banks tighten lending conditions. Lenders are restricting liquidity to the sector, while investors are demanding higher returns to provide capital, the Financial Times reports.

By the numbers: The premium required to lend to private credit funds rose by 0.34 percentage points in 2026 and 0.83 points since the beginning of last year, according to JPMorgan data cited by the salmon-colored paper.

REMEMBER- The sector has been seeing a rise in redemption requests from wealthy investors. Investors are concerned over weak lending standards in private credit after a series of corporate collapses, including Tricolor, First Brands, and Market Financial Solutions. AI disrupting the business models of tech and software sectors is also a major concern.

Banks tighten new commitments

Rising funding costs coincided with a decline in bond issuance by business development companies (BDCs), which act as flagship private credit vehicles. These firms sold around USD 6.8 bn of bonds in 1Q 2026, down 22% y-o-y and 36% from their performance in 2024. “We are staying away from BDCs,” Loomis, Sayles & Company portfolio manager Brian Kennedy told the Financial Times, arguing that the economics don’t compensate for sector risk.

Banks and traditional lenders that provide large credit facilities are also increasing pricing on new commitments. These facilities are critical to the sector’s financing model, allowing funds to borrow against their loan portfolios and amplify returns.

Shorter-dated maturities are gaining appeal

Issuers are currently using shorter-dated maturities to manage interest costs. Blue Owl private credit fund raised USD 400 mn through a two-year investment-grade bond sold directly to Pimco in a bilateral transaction, rather than through a public syndicated offering. Goldman Sachs Private Credit also secured USD 750 mn at a floating rate of 2.55 percentage points above US Treasuries.

Investor due diligence also intensified: “Now it is three weeks of investors underwriting the sectors and the names […] and if you have a position marked at 92 cents on the USD but someone else has it marked at 86, they want to talk to the [transaction] team,” Beach Point Capital’s portfolio manager Benjamin Hunsaker said.

The alternative

Some managers are turning to structured credit markets, where strong demand from insurers and other investors is helping keep borrowing costs lower, Hunsaker said. Blackstone raised USD 450 mn last month through a collateralized loan obligation for its flagship private credit fund, providing a static structure that prevents the manager from trading the underlying assets to boost investor confidence.

Sensex	78,641	-0.8% (YTD: -7.7%)
NIFTY 50	24,416	-0.65% (YTD: -6.5%)
ADX	9,787	-0.7% (YTD: -2.1%)
DFM	5,861	-0.2% (YTD: -3%)
Tadawul	11,274	-0.6% (YTD: +7.4%)
EGX30	52,323	+0.6% (YTD: +25%)
Boursa Kuwait	8,327	+0.5% (YTD: +0.3%)
QSE	10,684	+0.0% (YTD: -0.7%)
S&P 500	7,064	-0.6% (YTD: +3.1%)
FTSE 100	10,500	+0.01% (YTD: +5.7%)
Euro Stoxx 50	5,934	+0.07% (YTD: +2.4%)
Brent crude	USD 99	+0.7%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 2.7	+1.1%
Gold	USD 4,759	+0.8%
BTC	USD 78,156	+2.3%

The values in the table above are listed according to the market position as of 3:30pm IST / 2pm GST.

CALENDAR

APRIL

22-24 April (Wednesday-Friday): RenewX, Chennai Trade Centre, Chennai.

MAY

1 May (Friday): Buddha Purnima.

26 May (Tuesday): Eid Al Adha.

JUNE

15-17 June (Monday-Wednesday): Prime Minister Narendra Modi to attend G7 Summit in Evian, France.

18-21 June (Thursday-Sunday): Bharat Buildcon, Yashobhoomi, Dwarka, Delhi.

24-25 June (Wednesday-Thursday): India Homeland Security Expo, Bharat Mandapam, Pragati Maidan, New Delhi.

26 June (Friday): Muharram.

Signposted to happen sometime in 1H 2026:

Signing of India-Qatar FreeTrade Agreement (Details yet to be announced);
India-EU Trade and Technology Council Ministerial Meeting, Brussels, Belgium;
India to host the Brics Summit.

JULY

1-3 July (Wednesday-Friday): Seafood Expo Bharat, Chennai Trade Centre, Chennai.

3-4 July (Friday-Saturday): Rail & Transit Expo (RailTrans), Bharat Mandapam, New Delhi

8-10 July (Wednesday-Friday): India Energy Storage Week, New Delhi.

14-17 July (Tuesday-Friday) Bharat Tex, New Delhi.

22-24 July (Wednesday-Friday): Rail & Metro Technology Conclave, Bharat Mandapam, New Delhi.

AUGUST

15 August (Saturday): Independence Day.

26 August (Wednesday): Prophet Mohammad’s Birthday.

SEPTEMBER

1-3 September (Tuesday-Thursday): India Energy Week, Dwarka, New Delhi.

8-11 September (Tuesday-Friday): Global Fintech Fest, Mumbai.

7-9 September (Monday-Wednesday): Bengaluru Space Expo, Bangalore International Exhibition Centre, Bengaluru.

7-9 September (Monday-Wednesday): IPHEX, Bharat Mandapam, New Delhi.

17-19 September (Thursday-Saturday): Semicon India Conference, Yashobhoomi, Delhi.

OCTOBER

2 October (Friday): Gandhi Jayanti (Mahatma Gandhi’s Birthday).

20 October (Tuesday): Dussehra.

NOVEMBER

24 November (Tuesday): Guru Nanak Jayanti.

DECEMBER

8-11 December (Tuesday-Thursday), Expand North Star, Dubai.

25 December (Friday): Christmas Day.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2H 2026:

Monsoon Session of Parliament is expected to be held in July/August in New Delhi (TBA);
Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting for the September cycle (TBA);
India Mobile Congress will likely be held in October in New Delhi (TBA).

JANUARY 2027

30 January-3 February (Saturday-Wednesday): Printpack India, India Expo Centre, Greater Noida (Delhi NCR).

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