Good afternoon, everyone. This weekend’s theme was: whiplash. The Strait of Hormuz opened and closed more times than we could track, with Iran opening the waterway early Friday, only to close it hours later due to what it said was a US breach of the truce (namely its blockade of Iranian ports). Two India-flagged tankers came under fire, prompting New Delhi to summon Tehran’s envoy for a rebuke.

Plus: India’s oil imports dropped significantly in March, even as refiners scooped up mns of Russian and Iranian barrels. Russian oil will remain a main feature of India’s imports this month on the back of an extended sanctions waiver by the US government.

While ships are under fire, the government of India has launched a new maritime ins. scheme to extend support to its shipping industry.

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POLICY WATCH — The Indian government is moving to set up an INR 129.8 bn (USD 1.4 bn) sovereign-backed maritime ins. pool to support shipping operations as geopolitical tensions and sanctions tighten access to global cover, according to the Press Information Bureau.

“A sovereign guarantee of approximately INR 1.2 tn will be created for maritime ins. It will cover all types of maritime risks, including machinery, cargo, and war,” Information and Broadcasting Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw said (watch, runtime: 3:24) after the cabinet meeting.

The details: The Bharat Maritime Ins. Pool will operate as a domestic risk-sharing mechanism for marine cover, including hull, cargo, and war-related risks. The pool will run for 10 years, with an option to extend by another five, and coverage will be issued by participating insurers with a combined underwriting capacity of about INR 9.5 bn (USD 103 mn).

The move follows a pullback in reins. support, with global players scaling back exposure or repricing risk as conflict-related uncertainty increases. This has reduced the availability of cover for Indian ships operating on high-risk routes, while pushing up war-risk premiums across key transit corridors.

Why it matters: The backstop shifts part of the risk to a domestic structure as global ins. capacity tightens, helping sustain India-linked shipping flows. This becomes critical as volatility across Gulf routes, including the Strait of Hormuz, raises costs and coverage risks for India-bound cargo.

ECONOMY — India is stepping into the new financial year from a position of relative strength, with GDP projected at 6.8-7.1% in FY 2027 despite global volatility, ANI News reports, citing SBI Research.

Macro stability holds for now: India is coming off 7.6% growth in FY 2026, providing a stronger macro buffer. Inflation is projected at 4.5% with a fiscal deficit of 4.5-4.6%, supported by a stable banking system. However, risks from climate shocks such as a potential El Niño and external trade pressures could weigh on growth.

Alternative capital destination? Rising uncertainty in Gulf financial hubs like Dubai and Abu Dhabi could redirect capital flows, positing India’s Gujarat International Finance Tec-City as an alternative, the report adds. Disruptions to Middle Eastern airspace may also boost India’s role as a transit hub, and may necessitate “investments in airport infrastructure, connectivity, and passenger experience.” The country’s largest bank is suggesting that war-driven risks could prompt global investors and the Indian diaspora to reassess their concentrated exposure to the UAE.

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The big story abroad

The US seized an Iranian cargo ship for allegedly attempting to breach its naval blockade, which President Donald Trump previously said will remain in full force until a peace agreement is signed. Tehran pledged to strike back and said it will not take part in a second round of ceasefire talks, upending Washington’s plans to kick off a fresh round of negotiations before the ceasefire expires tomorrow.

Oil markets jittered at the development, with Brent crude futures jumping over 5% to USD 94.90 / bbl. And we expect the rally that pushed the S&P 500 to fresh highs last week to reverse course when markets open later today as hopes of easing tensions unravel. US futures were broadly in the red this morning.

Seemingly undaunted by the turmoil, Asian markets were up in early trading this morning, with Japan’s Nikkei rising by around 1% and South Korea’s Kospi gaining around 1.3%.

Economists are warning that the conflict’s aftermath will surely harm the US economy, triggering long-lasting inflation, the Financial Times reports. “What we see is that short-term inflation expectations have moved up here in the US,” IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva told the FT.

And in the world of tech and sports, Chinese-made humanoid robots clinched a victory over their human competitors in a half-marathon race in Beijing yesterday. A synthetic marathoner made by Chinese smartphone brand Honor — a Huawei spinoff — managed to break the world record for the half-marathon, signaling vast improvements from last year’s trial in which most of the robots failed to complete.

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