Emirates NBD takes control of RBL Bank

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

THIS AFTERNOON: India Oil eyes Hormuz crude and LPG cargoes

Good morning, friends, and happy Friday. As shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz are officially reopening, the Indian Oil Corporation is moving quickly to charter vessels and restore its Gulf supply lines to pivot away from pricier alternative crude sources.

Dubai’s Emirates NBD has successfully closed a 60% stake acquisition in RBL Bank for USD 2.8 bn, sealing the largest foreign direct investment ever recorded in India’s banking sector.

Plus: New projections indicate the country could pull in up to USD 80 bn in foreign capital by the end of 2026, thanks to a slew of targeted measures by the Reserve Bank of India.

Returning to Hormuz

State-backed Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) has issued tenders to charter vessels for lifting crude oil and LPG from ports inside the Strait of Hormuz, Reuters reports.

Cargoes lined up from Qatar, UAE and Kuwait: IOC is seeking to lift LPG between 30 June and 4 July from Qatar’s Ras Laffan, Kuwait’s Mina Al Ahmadi, and the UAE’s Ruwais terminal. The refiner is also looking to charter a Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) to load crude from Kuwait's Mina Al Ahmadi terminal and a Suezmax tanker for crude cargoes from Saudi Arabia’s Ras Al Khafji port. A VLCC typically carries around 2 mn barrels of crude, while a Suezmax carries about 1 mn barrels.

Why it matters: By sending ultra-large crude and gas carriers back into the belly of the Gulf — after months of disruption and a blockaded Strait of Hormuz — India is quickly moving to restore its short-haul supply lines, putting a halt to pricier, alternative supplies from Africa and Latin America.

USD 80 bn foreign inflows

India could attract up to USD 80 bn in foreign capital by the end of 2026, following a series of measures announced by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to drive foreign investment, Citigroup’s India CEO K. Balasubramanian told Bloomberg.

The forecast is among the most optimistic projections yet for capital inflows as heightened global market volatility persists. The estimate comes after recent RBI measures to strengthen the INR and improve India’s appeal to global investors. These include tax exemptions for foreign investments in government bonds, incentives for overseas borrowing by state-owned firms and foreign-currency deposit support. Echoing the optimistic outlook, economists at ICICI Bank are projecting inflows to hit the upper bound of USD 80 bn over the coming months

INR, markets finally start to look up: The policy push has already triggered an upswing in investor sentiment. The INR rallied to a six-week high following the announcements, while domestic equities ticked upward on expectations of sustained foreign capital inflows.

Why it matters: The policy changes are creating fresh tailwinds for Indian assets and helping place the currency back on a stronger trajectory, Balasubramanian said.

Happening today

Reliance Industries’ 49th Annual General Meeting is taking place today, with Chairman Mukesh Ambani announcing papers for the listing of its telecom unit, Jio Platforms will be filed with the Securities and Exchange Board of India today. The IPO is Reliance’s most significant value-creation milestone this year, Ambani said, adding that it would position the listing as proof that India can build tech companies on a global scale. Senior executives of Reliance including scions of the Ambani family will outline the strategic objectives of one of India’s largest conglomerates.

The big story abroad

The Strait is open — for now. The US-Iran interim peace agreement took effect yesterday, with shipping beginning to return to the Strait of Hormuz after US Central Command formally lifted its blockade of Iranian ports and coastal areas. VP JD Vance confirmed the 60-day clock on the memorandum of understanding has started ticking — meaning the hard part, working out Iran's nuclear program, begins now.

And in tech and AI news, SpaceX is planning a USD 20 bn bond sale as soon as next week — days after raising USD 86 bn in the biggest IPO in history — to repay the bridge loan it took out when Musk merged xAI and X into the rocket company in March. Moody's handed it an investment-grade Baa1 rating on Thursday, with a caveat: the rating is constrained by “elevated execution and financial risks” tied to its AI build-out, which burned USD 6.4 bn in 2025 and is still cash-flow negative. The company closed Thursday at a USD 2.4 tn market cap — sixth largest in the world.

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Emirates NBD takes control of RBL Bank after securing 60% stake

Emirates NBD is now the majority owner of India’s RBL Bank, after getting a historic transaction over the line. The Dubai lender acquired a 60% stake in the Mumbai-based private-sector bank for USD 2.8 bn, closing the largest foreign direct investment ever made in India’s banking sector, it confirmed in a press release (pdf).

The acquisition marks the first time a foreign bank has acquired a majority stake in a profitable Indian lender — a barrier that held for decades, and that the Reserve Bank of India and India’s capital markets regulator SEBI both had to sign off on. Emirates NBD acquired its stake through a preferential share issue. Public shareholders, offered the chance to exit under India’s mandatory open offer rules, didn’t tender their shares (pdf), leaving Emirates NBD with just 60%, rather than the 74% it could’ve potentially bought.

Why it matters: The lender said the partnership will strengthen cross-border trade, investment and financial flows between India, the UAE and other regional markets. It institutionalizes the UAE-India capital corridor at the banking level — giving Dubai’s largest lender by assets a direct presence through more than 600 branches in a market of more than 1.4 bn people.

What’s next: Emirates NBD is consolidating its existing Indian branches into RBL Bank, and positioning itself on the board of RBL Bank, with a reshuffling that saw two resignations of existing board members at the Indian bank, and five new members from Emirates NBD: Group CEO Shayne Nelson, Group CFO Patrick Sullivan, Group Head of Strategy, Analytics, and Venture Capital Neeraj Makin, Group Chief Risk Officer Manoj Chawla, and Group Head of Retail Banking & Wealth Management Marwan Hadi.

UAE crude exports to India hit multi-year high

The UAE climbed to become India’s second-largest crude supplier in May, with shipments surging nearly 41% m-o-m to 942.5k bbl / d, surpassing pre-war levels and reaching a multi-year high, Reuters reports. India’s aggregate crude oil imports rose 15.4% m-o-m to 5.2 mn bpd in May, driven by higher purchases from the UAE, Russia, Venezuela and Angola as refiners sought to secure supplies amid disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.

Saudi Arabia ranked third among suppliers, while India also resumed purchases of Iraqi crude after a month-long gap. Russia remained India’s largest crude supplier, with imports rising about 20% m-o-m to 1.9 mn bbl / d.

Led by a Fujairah workaround: Throughout the friction, the UAE's Fujairah export hub served as a vital buffer. Gulf producers have already requested that Indian buyers prepare to lift their full and committed annual contract volumes the moment normal transit resumes — in an effort to lock down their market share.

Why it matters: Indian refiners are all set to cut back spot market purchases from Latin America and Africa if the Hormuz reopens following the interim US-Iran agreement. A reopening could reverse recent diversification efforts and redirect Indian refiners back towards lower-cost Middle Eastern supplies, including potentially Iranian crude, if sanctions are lifted.

India imports less gas, pays more

Meanwhile, India paid an estimated USD 353 mn extra for liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports during March and April as the war prompted buyers to replace cheaper Qatari supplies with more expensive US and spot-market cargoes, Financial Express reports. The higher spending came despite LNG imports declining 23% from 4.4 mn tonnes in January-February to 3.4 mn tonnes in March-April.

Qatar’s decline reshuffles supply mix: Qatar's LNG supplies to India collapsed from 1.06 mn tonnes in January to virtually zero by April, while US imports surged to a record 910k tonnes in May, making America India's largest LNG supplier.

Why it matters: The US aggressively seized the vacuum, scaling its market share from 5% in January to 41% by May to become India’s primary LNG supplier. But this came at a steep premium: US-linked spot cargoes cost USD 2-3 / mmbtu more than traditional Qatari contract prices. Elevated prices continue to pressure fertilizer producers, gas distributors and power generators, igniting broader concerns over inflation and competitiveness.

ONGC to build the country’s newest oil reserve

State-run Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) has been directed by the government to construct and fill India’s next strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) facility in Mangaluru along the eastern coast, at an estimated cost of INR 15 bn (USD 1.6 bn), Economic Times reports. The planned underground cavern will feature a storage capacity of 1.75 mn metric tonnes (mmt), expanding the country’s existing crude storage capacity by nearly one-third

India's limited emergency oil stockpiles were exposed during the war. India’s aggregate strategic storage capacity currently sits at 5.3 mmt (roughly 39 mn barrels), though actual physical stockpiles had dwindled to just 21 mn barrels by the end of 2025. This leaves India with a significantly thinner cushion compared to global peers — China held 1.4 bn barrels, the US had 413 mn and Japan held 263 mn barrels.

A larger strategic reserve would provide a buffer against future price spikes, shipping disruptions and geopolitical shocks while reducing reliance on spot-market purchases during crises.

NSE files for IPO, setting stage for one of India's largest listings

The National Stock Exchange of India (NSE), India’s largest bourse, has filed draft papers for its long awaited listing. The exchange has been pursuing a listing since 2016, but regulatory investigations and legal disputes delayed the process for nearly a decade.

A USD 55 bn valuation is within reach: Based on trading in the unlisted market, NSE is estimated to be worth around USD 55 bn. That milestone would instantly propel it into the ranks of India’s ten most valuable listed corporations, positioning it broadly shoulder-to-shoulder with global peers like the London Stock Exchange Group.

Offer details: The IPO will be structured as an offer for sale of 148.9 mn shares, comprising roughly a 6% equity stake in the company, as per an exchange filing. A high-profile cohort of institutional backers will trim their holdings, including state-owned lenders State Bank of India and Bank of Baroda, alongside major ins. companies, Singapore’s sovereign wealth fund Temasek, and the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board.

Retail investing powerhouse: NSE serves around 257 mn investor accounts and 130 mn unique investors, making it one of the world’s largest retail-focused exchanges. For FY 2026, it reported total income of INR 187 bn (USD 1.9 bn) and net income of INR 103 bn (USD 1 bn).

Why it matters: For GCC capital allocators, NSE offers a direct play on India’s capital markets. Unlike exchanges such as the New York Stock Exchange or Chicago Mercantile Exchange, which are primarily institution-driven, NSE is powered by a retail investor base of around 130 mn unique investors. That scale gives the exchange a dominant position in India’s capital markets ecosystem with highly predictable, transaction-fee-driven earnings.

Nisus Finance doubles income as Dubai assets surge 223% in FY 2026

India-listed alternative investment manager Nisus Finance more than doubled its total income in FY 2026, led by strong growth in its UAE operations and expanding assets under management (AUM), as per a press release. The company reported a total revenue of AED 54.24 mn (USD 14.78 mn) for the year ended 31 March, up 109.6% y-o-y. New income after tax rose 108% y-o-y to AED 26 mn (USD 7.1 mn).

Dubai assets fuel expansion: The firm’s AUM increased 67% y-o-y to AED 1 bn (USD 275.8 mn), while Dubai-focused AUM surged 223% to AED 583.2 mn (USD 158.9 mn). The growth came on the back of investments in income-generating residential assets and higher-yield opportunities across the emirate.

Why it matters: Despite disruptions caused by the war during 4Q, the company said its UAE portfolio recorded no impairments and continued to appreciate in value. Nisus aggressively expanded its Dubai investment footprint while vertically integrating an asset-heavy construction company back in India — acquiring a majority stake in construction firm NCCCL, expanding its urban infrastructure platform. The NCCCL, a Nisus subsidiary, launched UAE operations to serve as a wider GCC hub for construction, infrastructure, and real estate activities, with a phased expansion strategy focused on partnerships and cross-border projects.

SalamAir eyes expansion in India

Oman’s low-cost carrier SalamAir is eyeing a network expansion in India via Goa and Navi Mumbai routes, CEO Hamilton-Manns told Oman Daily Observer. The budget airline is also looking to expand its footprint deeper into the market, expressing strong interest in launching future services to Hyderabad, Nagpur, Guwahati, and Kolkata

India is a “powerhouse of growth” for the airline, he said, citing strong demand and the market’s familiarity with low-cost travel. SalamAir plans to expand its fleet to 18 aircrafts this year, although growth has been constrained by engine shortages that left around one-third of its fleet grounded.

Why it matters: While the airline is eager to unlock new destinations, its immediate operational priority will be to scale up flight frequencies on its existing Indian routes. Any meaningful capacity expansion remains strictly contingent on Muscat and New Delhi renegotiating their bilateral air service agreements which put a limit on seat quotas. As primary hubs become increasingly saturated, secondary Indian cities are emerging as the next frontier for Gulf carriers looking to capture untapped passenger demand along migrant labour and tourist corridors.

Mega IPOs open windows for SPACs

SPACs are back — and the mega-IPO frenzy is to thank. As blockbuster listings from the likes of SpaceX absorb the bulk of investor appetite and capital on US markets, shell companies are re-emerging as the practical alternative for firms that can't compete for attention at the top of the queue, Reuters reports.

By the numbers: SPAC issuances have been on the up since last year, when they started to recover from a post-2021 dip. So far, USD 36.9 bn worth of SPAC mergers have been announced through 44 agreements, up from USD 15 bn through 33 agreements at the same point the year before, according to Dealogic data.

BACKGROUND- SPACs helped push global IPOs to a record high in 2021, before a wave of underperformers struggled to deliver returns or find viable targets. The current revival is more selective — with sectors drawing interest this time including energy, crypto, defense, and critical minerals.

Nearly 360 SPACs are sitting on c. USD 56.8 bn in dry powder ready to deploy, per SPAC Research. Two big pending transactions illustrate the shift: Taiwan-based battery manufacturer ProLogium Technology is listing on the Nasdaq through a USD 3.8 bn SPAC merger, while the US’s power and lithium resource producer Controlled Thermal Resources agreed on a USD 4.7 bn merger.

SPACs can provide an alternative route, or “a quick side entrance” as Cerity Partners’ Michael Ashley Schulman said, for funds to take advantage of a buoyant market, as mega listings take up a sizable share of investor interest, appetite, and capital.

For the targets, as well as offering an easier access route to the already crowded IPO scene on US capital markets, acquisitions and mergers through shell companies offer more flexibility on terms and a guaranteed capital raise at close.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asian markets were in the green this morning, tracking a broader market rally in the wake of the US-Iran peace agreements’s signing. South Korea’s Kospi jumped 2.8% to break another record, with shares of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix reaching all-time highs, and Japan’s Nikkei rose 0.6%. China, Hong Kong and Taiwan markets are closed for a holiday.

Sensex	76,708	-0.9% (YTD: -10%)
NIFTY 50	23,971	-0.8% (YTD: -8.2%)
ADX	10,060	-0.5% (YTD: +9.5%)
DFM	6,186	-1.3% (YTD: +2.3%)
Tadawul	11,121	+0.06% (YTD: +6%)
EGX30	52,621	+1.1% (YTD: +25.8%)
Boursa Kuwait	8,732	-0.5% (YTD: +5%)
QSE	10,510	-0.6% (YTD: -2.3%)
S&P 500	7,500	+1% (YTD: +9.5%)
FTSE 100	10,382	-0.1% (YTD: +4.5%)
Euro Stoxx 50	6,325	+0.04% (YTD: +9.2%)
Brent crude	USD 79.4	-0.5%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 3.2	-0.8%
Gold	USD 4,165	-1.4%
BTC	USD 62,412	-2.6%

The values in the table above are listed according to the market position as of 3:30pm IST / 2pm GST.

Trump, Modi discuss trade and security at G7

US President Donald Trump met with Prime Minister Narendra Modi on the sidelines of the G7 Summit in France, with both leaders discussing trade, regional security and the future of bilateral ties. Trump said the two countries were working on closing a trade agreement.

Trade ties remain under strain: The meeting was the first between the two leaders since Trump imposed steep tariffs on India. Relations have since faced other headwinds: Washington's whiplash on India's purchases of Russian oil and differences over regional geopolitics. Despite the tensions, both have continued efforts to rebuild economic engagement.

Why it matters: Modi used the meeting to raise concerns over the safety of Indian seafarers working in the Strait of Hormuz following the deaths of three Indian sailors after recent US strikes on commercial vessels. The meeting is part of a renewed campaign to stabilize India-US ties after months of friction.

UK-India trade pack to kick off in July

The UK and India have agreed to bring their long-awaited FTA into force on 15 July after resolving concerns over the UK’s upcoming steel safeguard measures, which had delayed implementation, Reuters reports. The pact, inked last year, is expected to increase bilateral trade by USD 34.4 bn and boost UK GDP by USD 6.5 bn over the long term. The implementation follows talks between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer on the sidelines of the G7 Summit.

India-EU free trade pact heads for year-end signing

The EU and India are set to formally ink their long-awaited FTA by the end of 2026, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said after meeting Modi at the G7 Summit, Reuters reports. The agreement, finalized in January, will eliminate or reduce tariffs on 96.6% of goods traded between the two sides by value. Once signed, the agreement is expected to enter into force in 2027, opening greater market access across manufacturing, automobiles, chemicals, pharmaceuticals and consumer goods.

CALENDAR

18-21 June (Thursday-Sunday): Bharat Buildcon, Yashobhoomi, Dwarka, Delhi.

24-25 June (Wednesday-Thursday): India Homeland Security Expo, Bharat Mandapam, Pragati Maidan, New Delhi.

26 June (Friday): Muharram.

Signposted to happen sometime in 1H 2026:

Signing of India-Qatar FreeTrade Agreement (Details yet to be announced);
India-EU Trade and Technology Council Ministerial Meeting, Brussels, Belgium;
India to host the Brics Summit.

JULY

1-3 July (Wednesday-Friday): Seafood Expo Bharat, Chennai Trade Centre, Chennai.

3-4 July (Friday-Saturday): Rail & Transit Expo (RailTrans), Bharat Mandapam, New Delhi

3-4 July (Friday-Saturday): SOMS International Exhibition & Conference, Gandhinagar, Gujarat.

8-10 July (Wednesday-Friday): India Energy Storage Week, New Delhi.

14-17 July (Tuesday-Friday): Bharat Tex, New Delhi.

22-24 July (Wednesday-Friday): Rail & Metro Technology Conclave, Bharat Mandapam, New Delhi.

AUGUST

15 August (Saturday): Independence Day.

26 August (Wednesday): Prophet Mohammad’s Birthday.

SEPTEMBER

1-3 September (Tuesday-Thursday): India Energy Week, Dwarka, New Delhi.

1-6 September (Monday-Saturday): Dubai Fashion Week, Dubai Design District.

7 September (Sunday): Opec+ meet to discuss production policy for October.

7-9 September (Monday-Wednesday): iPHEX 2026 International Pharmaceutical Exhibition, Bharat Mandapam, New Delhi.

8-11 September (Tuesday-Friday): Global Fintech Fest, Mumbai.

9 September (Tuesday): Envision 2025, Atlantis, The Royal, Dubai.

17-19 September (Thursday-Saturday): Semicon India Conference, Yashobhoomi, Delhi.

OCTOBER

2 October (Friday): Gandhi Jayanti (Mahatma Gandhi’s Birthday).

20 October (Tuesday): Dussehra.

NOVEMBER

24 November (Tuesday): Guru Nanak Jayanti.

DECEMBER

8-11 December (Tuesday-Thursday): Expand North Star, Dubai.

25 December (Friday): Christmas Day.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2H 2026:

Monsoon Session of Parliament is expected to be held in July/August in New Delhi (TBA);
Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting for the September cycle (TBA);
India Mobile Congress will likely be held in October in New Delhi (TBA).

JANUARY 2027

30 January-3 February (Saturday-Wednesday): Printpack India, India Expo Centre, Greater Noida (Delhi NCR).

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Emirates NBD takes control of RBL Bank

Today at a glance

THIS AFTERNOON: India Oil eyes Hormuz crude and LPG cargoes

Related

Emirates NBD takes control of RBL Bank after securing 60% stake

Related

UAE crude exports to India hit multi-year high

Related

NSE files for IPO, setting stage for one of India's largest listings

Related

Nisus Finance doubles income as Dubai assets surge 223% in FY 2026

Related

SalamAir eyes expansion in India

Related

Mega IPOs open windows for SPACs

Related

Trump, Modi discuss trade and security at G7

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