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Monday, 15 Jun 2026

What We’re Tracking Today
The Big Story Today
Spotlight
Capital Markets
Planet Finance
Calendar

Oman India Fertilizer Company’s IPO targets USD 2.7 bn valuation

Today at a glance

1

THE BIG STORY TODAY

India-Oman fertilizer asset floats USD 678 mn Muscat listing.
2

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

US, Iran to sign peace agreement on Friday.
3

CAPITAL MARKETS

Indian equities rally as agreement cools oil prices.
4

SPOTLIGHT

Why Man Industries dropped USD 102 mn in Saudi Arabia.
5

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

Retail inflation climbs to 3.9% in May.
6

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

India restricts seafarer deployment in the Gulf.
7

PLANET FINANCE

Adobe’s 9% Friday collapse confirms the Halo rotation.

Monday, 15 Jun 2026

What We’re Tracking Today
The Big Story Today
Spotlight
Capital Markets
Planet Finance
Calendar
1

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

THIS AFTERNOON: India’s retail inflation climbs to 3.9% in May

Good morning, ladies and gents. We are kicking off the week with a sense of relief sweeping through the markets as the US and Iran look poised to ink a peace agreement that would finally reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The news has already sent oil prices tumbling and Indian equities surging.

In our big story today, we have the breakdown of Oman India Fertilizer Company’s listing on the Muscat Stock Exchange, which kicks off tomorrow. The JV between Indian and Omani state-run firms is eyeing a USD 2.7 bn valuation for its debut.

Plus: Pipe manufacturer Man Industries is doubling down on localization, dropping USD 102 mn to acquire a Saudi firm and secure a crucial manufacturing foothold in the Kingdom.

Let’s dive right in.

Inflation inches higher in May

India’s retail inflation rose to 3.9% in May, its highest reading since January, as per a Statistics Ministry press release. Higher food and fuel costs have begun to feed through to households following the war and a series of domestic fuel-price hikes.

Food pressures build: Food inflation accelerated to 4.7% in May from 4.2% a month earlier, while transport inflation climbed to 1.7% from a contraction of 0.01% in April, after state-run fuel retailers implemented four rounds of price increases in May. The Reserve Bank of India recently raised its FY 2027 inflation forecast to 5.1% from 4.6%, while keeping interest rates unchanged. Core inflation, which excludes food and fuel, remained relatively contained at around 3.9%.

Weathering an uneven monsoon: Inflationary pressures could intensify if El Niño conditions weaken the June-September monsoon, which supplies roughly 70% of India’s annual rainfall and remains critical to agricultural output.

Why it matters: With the INR down nearly 5% since the war began and monsoon risks looming, policymakers face growing pressure to contain inflation without undermining growth. Whenever India faces structural food inflation, the state’s default playbook is protectionism — banning or taxing exports of rice, wheat, and sugar to protect local consumers. With the GCC amounting to 21.8% of India’s total agri-exports in 2025 — worth about USD 11.8 bn — the region’s procurement teams could be expected to prepare for supply chain disruptions if India imposes export control measures.

Razorpay’s listing

Bengaluru-based payments company Razorpay has confidentially filed draft papers for an IPO with India’s market regulator, joining a growing list of tech startups seeking to tap public markets, Economic Times reports.

What we know so far: The proposed IPO size is pegged at a size between USD 500 and USD 700 mn, targeting a valuation of USD 5-6 bn. Founded in 2014, Razorpay is one of India’s largest fintech companies, providing payment gateway, merchant banking, and business-finance solutions to more than 10 mn businesses.

Gulf footprint: Backed by heavyweights, including GIC, Lightspeed, and Y Combinator, Razorpay has steadily built out its operations in the UAE. The company serves as a critical payment infrastructure bridge between India and the Middle East, catering to both local businesses and cross-border merchants.

Why it matters: Razorpay has aggressively scaled its high-margin cross-border products, particularly its export accounts. These tools allow Indian exporters to bypass traditional banking fees by opening virtual accounts that receive payments directly in GCC currencies, including the AED, SAR, and KWD. Consequently, the company’s profitability is increasingly tethered to mid-market trade flows along the India-MENA corridor. The late-stage fintech’s listing will be closely watched by Gulf SWFs who are among the most avid backers of India’s tech firms.

Sound smart: The confidential filing route allows companies to keep financial details and other disclosures private until closer to the launch of the share sale.

Seafarer deployment in the Gulf restricted

The Indian government has asked shipping companies and maritime recruitment agencies to restrict the deployment of seafarers to conflict zones in the Arabian Gulf, as per an advisory issued by the Ports Ministry. The safety directive follows a series of strikes on commercial vessels that left Indian crew members dead or injured.

Why it matters: Indian nationals account for roughly 15% of the global maritime workforce. Vessel masters operating in the Gulf, including the Strait of Hormuz, have been instructed to maintain heightened vigilance, monitor security advisories, and implement enhanced ship security procedures.

What has transpired: Just last week, three Indian seafarers were killed in a strike on the oil tanker MT Settebello, and two other Indian-crewed vessels were attacked the same week. India has placed its maritime agencies on high alert and is coordinating with the Navy, foreign missions, and shipping companies to support Indian seafarers.

The diplomatic response: “Such lethal actions against commercial shipping are not justified,” India’s External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar said while speaking with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio to register the government’s protest.

The big story abroad

Mark your calendars for Friday: The US and Iran will ink an agreement to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz on Friday — the agreement is “now complete,” according to US President Donald Trump.

While the details of the agreement remain unclear, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said it includes the “permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon.” Contrary to Trump’s statement, the Iranian side said the agreement calls for the reopening of Hormuz within 30 days.

The UK, France, Germany, and Italy said they’re ready to lift sanctions on Iran in light of Iran’s efforts to address its nuclear program. “Iran ‌must ⁠never acquire a nuclear weapon. We stand ready ​to work ​with ⁠the US, Iran, and ​the IAEA to ​this ⁠end,” they said in a joint statement.

Markets reacted as expected: After Trump’s call for the ships of the world to start their engines and “let the oil flow,” Brent fell almost 4% to USD 83.86. One LNG tanker is on its way to the strait after being stuck in the Gulf for months. We’ll be closely watching to see if it makes the trip safely.

Asian markets and US futures celebrated the news: Asia-Pacific equities jumped in early trading, with Japan’s Nikkei and South Korea’s Kospi hitting fresh highs on the back of the news and a semiconductor-led rally. Over in the US, stocks are set to open higher, with futures in the green.

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Circle your calendar

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays, and news triggers.

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2

THE BIG STORY TODAY

India-Oman fertilizer asset floats USD 678 mn Muscat listing

The Oman India Fertilizer Company (Omifco) is set to raise up to OMR 260.9 mn (USD 678 mn) through an IPO on the Muscat Stock Exchange, as per its prospectus. Subscription kicks off tomorrow and runs through 25 June, with trading expected to begin on 8 July. This will be Oman’s first listing since the outbreak of the US-Iran war.

Offer details: Omifco is offering 1.6 bn shares, equivalent to 25% of its total share capital, at a price range of USD 0.3-0.4 per share — valuing the fertilizer producer at up to OMR 1 bn (USD 2.7 bn). Institutional investors will receive 60% of the offering, while the rest is set aside for the retail investors.

Advisors: Bank Muscat and Société Générale will be global advisers on the issue, with Arqaam Capital and United Securities as joint bookrunners.

India-Oman corridor asset heads to market

The backstory: Established in 1998, Omifco is a joint venture in which Oman’s energy firm OQ owns a 50% stake, while Indian Farmers Fertilizer Cooperative and Krishak Bharati Cooperative each hold 25%. Between 2023 and 2025, India’s agrarian sector absorbed 71% of Omifco’s urea and 61% of its ammonia under long-term offtake agreements.

Why it matters: While the war has resulted in a near-total choke of the Strait of Hormuz, Omifco’s production facilities in Sur sit entirely outside the chokepoint on Oman’s eastern coastline. By supplying urea to one of the world’s largest importers through a long-standing bilateral partnership, the company maintained uninterrupted exports and capitalized on a four-year peak in global nitrogen prices.

Testing the war waters

Why the calculus holds: India’s 10-year offtake agreement with OQ Trading kicked off in February this year, with over half of Omifco's production flowing directly into a subsidized Indian government supply program. This locks in long-term cashflows for a company that already boasts a 40% net gain margin on its USD 802 mn revenue base.

Thawing a Gulf market freeze: While the war has led peer issuers across the Gulf to shelve listings, the Omifco IPO means exposure for investors to a key India-Oman industrial corridor asset at a time of spiking fertilizer costs and renewed focus on Gulf food-security supply chains. It is set to be an early test of regional equity-market sentiment in the aftermath of the war’s economic rut.

What’s next: Omifco is also evaluating a potential expansion that could significantly raise ammonia and urea production capacity, though no final investment decision has been made.

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3

SPOTLIGHT

Man Industries pivots to KSA localization with USD 102 mn NPC acquisition

India-based pipe manufacturer Man Industries is building Saudi Arabia into a key Gulf manufacturing base after completing its USD 102 mn (INR 10 bn) acquisition of Saudi Arabia-based National Pipe Company (NPC), as local content rules, import duties, and rising energy and water infrastructure demand change how Indian industrial companies serve the Gulf markets.

From exporters to local players: The acquisition signals a structural transition from exporting pipes out of India to building heavy industrial capacity inside the Kingdom, Managing Director of Man Industries Nikhil Mansukhani, tells EnterpriseAM. “We realized that if we wanted our share of the Saudi market, we needed to be present locally. We were no longer eligible for many tenders because we were not local. Local manufacturing has become a very important criterion in Saudi Arabia,” Mansukhani says.

Why Saudi? Man Industries is a regular supplier of line pipes to the Kingdom between 2015 and 2021. However, Saudi Aramco’s in-Kingdom value-added (IKTVA) requirements, changing localization frameworks, and a 15% import duty gradually eroded the competitiveness of direct exports from India.

The NPC’s advantage

A shortcut to Saudi approvals: Acquiring NPC gives Man Industries immediate manufacturing capability and a premium client roster that would otherwise take years to establish from scratch. Operating out of Dhahran and Dammam, NPC has an annual installed capacity of 430k metric tons (MT) of HSAW and LSAW pipes. Its existing customer base features heavyweights like Saudi Aramco, the Saudi Water Authority, the Saudi Water Partnership Company, the Water Transmission & Technologies Co., and Kuwait Oil Company.

“The biggest advantage is that NPC is already approved by Saudi Aramco,” Mansukhani says. “If we had built a new mill from scratch, we would first have had to spend around two years on construction and approvals. After that, we would need API certification, which can take six to eight months. Then we would have to conduct trials with Aramco and government clients before becoming an approved supplier.”

NPC is currently pushing through 60k tons of pipe fabrication for Aramco’s Zuluf field upgrade, with fresh orders and inquiries ongoing. Crucially, Man Industries also inherits NPC’s regulatory approvals across other key regional markets, including Oman, Qatar, Kuwait, Iraq, Abu Dhabi, and Dubai.

Order pipeline jumps: Backed by its Saudi footprint, Man Industries’ overall bid book has nearly doubled, jumping from its historical average of INR 100-130 bn to roughly INR 250 bn. The firm is already actively bidding on 8-10 major projects out of its new Saudi platform.

From pipes to coating

Before closing the NPC agreement, Man Industries had been drawing up plans for a greenfield pipe mill in the Kingdom. That capital expenditure will now be redirected toward a specialized greenfield coating and double-jointing facility, which is already under construction and slated to go live between December and January.

Why coating matters: Bare pipes and industrial coating are treated as entirely separate vendor categories under Saudi procurement protocols. “A company may be the lowest bidder for pipes but not for coating,” Mansukhani explains. NPC’s bare pipes are already approved, and the new coating facility will add another distinct revenue stream.

What comes next?

The company is eyeing a potential stainless-steel finishing facility in Saudi Arabia within 18 months. It is currently setting up 25k tons of extrusion capacity in India and plans to route material to the Kingdom to feed a planned finishing facility.

A Western export springboard: Saudi production could also help Man Industries serve markets where Indian exports face restrictions or quotas. “Saudi Arabia does not have the same restrictions or quotas in markets such as Europe and the US,” Mansukhani says.

The financial outlook: By FY 2028, Man Industries projects its Saudi business will generate an annual top line contribution of up to INR 40 bn, maintaining EBITDA margins of around 14-16%.

Saudi first, GCC later: While the Saudi asset gives Man Industries the flexibility to supply neighboring states like Jordan, Iraq, and Abu Dhabi, local Saudi demand is robust enough to fully absorb its output for the next three years. “We do not expect a practical need to go outside the Kingdom in a major way over the next three years,” Mansukhani says.

Oil and gas will remain the primary demand driver for the company in the Middle East, accounting for roughly 65-70% of regional demand, while large-scale water transmission infrastructure will make up the remaining 30-35%. Emerging segments like carbon capture and hydrogen infrastructure are also being monitored as long-term growth options.

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4

CAPITAL MARKETS

Relief for Indian equities as initial US-Iran peace agreement sends oil prices tumbling

Indian equities surged today following a broader global market rally after the US and Iran announced an initial peace agreement. The Nifty 50 climbed 1.45%, while the BSE Sensex added 1.54% as of 10:02am IST.

HDFC Bank, the heaviest-weighted stock on the benchmarks, jumped 2% to lead the gains. Meanwhile, infrastructure giant Larsen & Toubro — which has significant revenue exposure to the Middle East — gained 3.3%. The drop in crude prices also triggered a rally across oil marketing companies, airlines, tire manufacturers, and paint makers.

IN CONTEXT- The indices marked heavy losses since the beginning of the war — on Friday, Sensex was down 11.7% YTD and Nifty 10%. Foreign portfolio investors have offloaded a record USD 30.7 bn in domestic equities so far this year, making Indian equities the worst performing in Asia.

Why it matters for India: Lower oil prices provide a critical buffer for the world’s third-largest oil importer, easing the strain on inflation, the country’s trade deficit, and the currency. The INR gained 0.52% to reach 94.61 per USD, while the 10-year government bond yield slid to its lowest level since 25 March, according to Reuters.

“For India, the agreement brings immediate economic relief,” Ajay Srivastava of the Global Trade Research Initiative tells EnterpriseAM. The conflict had exposed India’s heavy reliance on the Middle East, which supplies roughly 50% of its crude oil, around 70% of its LPG, and nearly 90% of its LNG imports.

Easing macro pressures: The disruption of Gulf shipping had inflated India’s energy import bill, heightened inflation risks, weakened the currency, and forced refiners to scramble for alternative supplies from distant markets. “Reopening the Strait of Hormuz is expected to stabilize energy markets, ease pressure on oil and gas prices, strengthen the rupee, and improve India's growth outlook,” Srivastava says.

The broader strategic takeaway for India

“The United States did not embrace peace out of goodwill; it did so because the costs of war became too high,” Srivastava says, pointing to Iran’s ability to disrupt energy supplies and impose heavy economic and military costs.

“India should draw a clear lesson from this outcome, engage the United States as an equal partner, not a subordinate one. Whether in trade, technology, energy, or foreign policy, India must reject arrangements that undermine its interests. Strategic autonomy, economic strength, and negotiating from a position of confidence remain India’s best safeguards in dealing with any major power,” Srivastava argues.

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5

PLANET FINANCE

Adobe’s 9% Friday collapse confirms the Halo rotation

Adobe shares collapsed 9% to USD 198 on Friday, June 12 — down 37% YTD and 47% over the past twelve months — despite posting a record USD 6.62 bn in quarterly revenue. Multiple analyst downgrades followed the announcement that CFO Dan Durn would depart today, citing the leadership shuffle and a strategic shift toward ‘freemium’ offerings that Wall Street read as defensive.

What’s happening at Adobe isn’t an outlier. The market is repricing every asset where AI replacement is a credible thesis — and doing so even when revenue is at record levels, AI products are growing fast, and management is executing moves the analyst community spent two years asking for.

A month ago, we argued that the global equity market was splitting along AI-disruption lines, with the smart money rotating into heavy-asset, low-obsolescence (Halo) companies and away from the software, payments, and consumer platforms most vulnerable to AI replacement. Friday’s session was Halo arriving in real time. For GCC sovereign capital, the implications are immediate and quantifiable. The PIF 1Q 13F filing — which showed the fund had cut its US-listed book to four positions — looks increasingly like the smartest single capital allocation decision in the GCC complex this year.

Visa, Mastercard, and Amazon, the three names PIF exited ahead of Berkshire’s 1Q sale, were all priced as durable compounders six months ago. They are now priced as AI-disruption candidates. Mubadala, Adia, ADQ, and QIA still carry meaningful exposure across the software and payments cohort that Friday repriced. Every position in that cohort just took a real hit.

The Halo thesis argued that the rotation favored heavy assets — utilities, freight, energy, industrials — that AI cannot quickly replace. The May 19 NextEra-Dominion merger validated the heavy-asset side of the trade at the corporate-action level, while Friday’s Adobe selloff validates the disruptable side at the equity-market level. Both sides of the Halo split are now operating in real time, and the gap is widening every week.

Sensex

76,465

+1.2% (YTD: -10.2%)

NIFTY 50

23,922

+1.2% (YTD: -8.4%)

ADX

9,804

+2.7% (YTD: -1.8%)

DFM

5,954

+3.8% (YTD: -1.54%)

Tadawul

11,122

+0.1% (YTD: +6%)

EGX30

52,248

+0.4% (YTD: +24.9%)

Boursa Kuwait

8,781

+0.8% (YTD: +5.7%)

QSE

10,543

+0.7% (YTD: -2%)

S&P 500

7,431

+0.5% (YTD: +8.5%)

FTSE 100

10,495

+0.2% (YTD: +5.6%)

Euro Stoxx 50

6,259

+1.1% (YTD: +8%)

Brent crude

USD 82.9

-5.03%

Natural gas (Nymex)

USD 3.05

-2.5%

Gold

USD 4,363

+2.9%

BTC

USD 65,620

+1.6%

The values in the table above are listed according to the market position as of 3:30pm IST / 2pm GST.

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CALENDAR

15-17 June (Monday-Wednesday): Prime Minister Narendra Modi to attend G7 Summit in Evian, France.

18-21 June (Thursday-Sunday): Bharat Buildcon, Yashobhoomi, Dwarka, Delhi.

24-25 June (Wednesday-Thursday): India Homeland Security Expo, Bharat Mandapam, Pragati Maidan, New Delhi.

26 June (Friday): Muharram.

Signposted to happen sometime in 1H 2026:

JULY

1-3 July (Wednesday-Friday): Seafood Expo Bharat, Chennai Trade Centre, Chennai.

3-4 July (Friday-Saturday): Rail & Transit Expo (RailTrans), Bharat Mandapam, New Delhi

3-4 July (Friday-Saturday): SOMS International Exhibition & Conference, Gandhinagar, Gujarat.

8-10 July (Wednesday-Friday): India Energy Storage Week, New Delhi.

14-17 July (Tuesday-Friday): Bharat Tex, New Delhi.

22-24 July (Wednesday-Friday): Rail & Metro Technology Conclave, Bharat Mandapam, New Delhi.

AUGUST

15 August (Saturday): Independence Day.

26 August (Wednesday): Prophet Mohammad’s Birthday.

SEPTEMBER

1-3 September (Tuesday-Thursday): India Energy Week, Dwarka, New Delhi.

1-6 September (Monday-Saturday): Dubai Fashion Week, Dubai Design District.

7 September (Sunday): Opec+ meet to discuss production policy for October.

7-9 September (Monday-Wednesday): iPHEX 2026 International Pharmaceutical Exhibition, Bharat Mandapam, New Delhi.

8-11 September (Tuesday-Friday): Global Fintech Fest, Mumbai.

9 September (Tuesday): Envision 2025, Atlantis, The Royal, Dubai.

17-19 September (Thursday-Saturday): Semicon India Conference, Yashobhoomi, Delhi.

OCTOBER

2 October (Friday): Gandhi Jayanti (Mahatma Gandhi’s Birthday).

20 October (Tuesday): Dussehra.

NOVEMBER

24 November (Tuesday): Guru Nanak Jayanti.

DECEMBER

8-11 December (Tuesday-Thursday): Expand North Star, Dubai.

25 December (Friday): Christmas Day.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2H 2026:

  • Monsoon Session of Parliament is expected to be held in July/August in New Delhi (TBA);
  • Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting for the September cycle (TBA);
  • India Mobile Congress will likely be held in October in New Delhi (TBA).

JANUARY 2027

30 January-3 February (Saturday-Wednesday): Printpack India, India Expo Centre, Greater Noida (Delhi NCR).

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