Omifco prepares for landmark Muscat IPO

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

US proposes fresh tariff on Indian exports

Good afternoon, friends. We are at the midpoint of the week, and investment updates are dominating the narrative across today’s issue.

The big story today: Oman India Fertilizer Company is gearing up for a landmark IPO on the Muscat Stock Exchange. The joint venture is capitalizing on soaring global fertilizer prices, proving the resilience of the India-Oman supply chain as the Hormuz crisis continues.

Meanwhile, trade headwinds are gathering on another front. The US is floating a fresh 12.5% tariff hit on Indian exports, and New Delhi is tightening its grip on silver imports to curb arbitrage and ease pressure on the sliding INR.

Plus: Australia’s AirTrunk has secured the green light for a massive USD 21 bn data center hub in Mumbai, and Abu Dhabi's Adia has backed precision-cooling manufacturer KRN Heat Exchangers.

BUT FIRST- The latest war updates: Iran launched fresh attacks on Kuwait and Bahrain last night — some failed en route, and others were intercepted. In response, US forces launched “self-defense” strikes on Iran’s Qeshm Island.

More US tariffs?

The Office of the US Trade Representative (USTR) is floating a 12.5% additional duty on Indian goods following an investigation alleging the country’s failure to curb forced labor in the supply chain, Bloomberg reports.

India has denied USTR’s allegation that it failed to impose prohibitions on forced labor in goods exported to the US and has asked Washington to drop the probe. The proposal comes as US and Indian negotiators are in New Delhi working on a bilateral trade agreement, with New Delhi expected to push for relief from the investigation and lower tariffs compared to rival exporters.

Why it matters: The proposed 12.5% duty adds an export-side risk for India, while the Iran war pushes up oil and gas prices. The final impact will depend on the product list, exemptions, and whether India secures relief through trade talks.

Keep that silver away

India has tightened restrictions on silver imports, applying licensing requirements to silver grains, powder, and other forms containing 99.9% purity, as per a government order (pdf). This is the latest move in New Delhi’s efforts to curb non-essential imports and ease pressure on the sliding INR.

What’s changed: Importers will now require prior authorization from the Directorate General of Foreign Trade (DGFT) before bringing in the metal. This follows last month’s decision to place silver bars and semi-manufactured silver products under the ‘restricted’ category and to raise import duties on gold and silver to 15% from 6%.

A ballooning import bill? The crackdown comes after India spent a record USD 12 bn on silver imports in FY 2026, up from USD 4.8 bn last year. Imports surged 157% y-o-y to USD 411 mn in April alone. While silver is used in jewelry, coins, and industrial applications, such as solar panels and electronics, recent demand has been driven by investors. Record inflows into silver exchange-traded funds have amplified imports, raising concerns about the fallout on India's trade balance as energy prices continue to inflate the import bill.

Why it matters: India sources much of its silver from the UAE, the UK, and China. The latest restrictions add another layer of oversight for bullion traders and refiners operating along the India-Gulf corridor.

The UAE angle: While India raised silver import duties to 15%, it maintains a concessional 7% rate for UAE imports under the India-UAE CEPA. The wider duty gap has raised concerns that traders could reroute global silver shipments through Dubai to seek lower tariffs. By introducing licensing mandates, New Delhi is trying to curb arbitrage-driven imports and retain greater control over silver inflows.

All red for Indian stocks

Indian equities slipped again today amid foreign investor sell-off. Nifty 50 was down 0.89%, while the BSE Sensex fell 1.06% in early trading, putting both benchmarks on track for a fifth successive trading session.

What’s driving the decline: Renewed hostilities in the Gulf and stalled US-Iran peace talks are keeping crude prices elevated, raising inflation, currency, and growth risks for India, the world’s third-largest oil importer and consumer. Foreign investors have pulled a record USD 26.8 bn from Indian equities so far this year. IT stocks led the decline, with the Nifty IT index falling 4.3% after gaining 7% over the previous two sessions.

^^ We have more on declining Indian equity markets and the factors driving the sell-off in this afternoon’s Planet Finance.

Happening today

Venezuela’s Acting President Delcy Eloína Rodríguez Gómez begins a five-day visit to India today, putting energy ties back on the India-Venezuela agenda, according to the External Affairs Ministry. Rodríguez will meet with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and talks are expected to cover energy, trade, investment, pharma, healthcare, transportation, and renewable energy.

Hormuz hedge: The visit comes as India is buying more Venezuelan crude, while Gulf supplies remain exposed to the Strait of Hormuz disruption. India was the second-largest importer of Venezuelan oil in May, buying 427k bbl / d, behind only the US, Reuters reports.

The big story abroad

No single story is dominating the global front pages this afternoon — but among the stories making headlines:

#1- SpaceX will reportedly raise USD 75 bn in its highly-anticipated IPO, selling 555.6 mn shares at USD 135 a pop, unnamed sources told Reuters. These figures put the firm’s valuation at USD 1.75 tn.

#2- Microsoft launched its own AI offerings at its Build conference to compete with proprietary models, including coding assistants and reasoning models, which would lower costs and reliance on OpenAI products. The tech giant also unveiled Project Solara, a family of prototype devices designed to host AI agents that carry out complex tasks autonomously.

#3- Investors seem bullish and unafraid: Concerns over inflation and elevated asset prices are trumped by optimistic sentiments, as financial markets currently exhibit “more greed than there is fear,” Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon said. He added that so long as investors remain bullish, there is ample liquidity to absorb massive upcoming IPOs from companies like SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI.

#4- The UN General Assembly has elected its next head. Bangladeshi Foreign Minister Khalilur Rahman narrowly defeated Cyprus’ Andreas Kakouris to secure the presidency of the UN General Assembly.

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Oman India Fertilizer Company plans Muscat listing

India-Oman JV set to go public: Oman India Fertilizer Company (Omifco) plans to float 25% of its shares through an IPO on the Muscat Stock Exchange, marking Oman’s first listing of 2026, Arabian Business reports.

Offer details: The company is a joint venture between Omani and Indian state-run entities — energy firm OQ holds a 50% stake, while Indian Farmers Fertilizer Cooperative and Krishak Bharati Cooperative each own 25%. The listing will consist entirely of existing shares sold by the three shareholders and is slated for a July listing. Bank Muscat and Société Générale will be global coordinators on the issue.

War boosts fertilizer economics: Omifco operates two ammonia plants with an annual capacity of 1.1 mn tons and two urea plants with a capacity of 1.6 mn tons. The company expects revenue to rise 40% in the second quarter as global fertilizer prices climb amid disruptions to trade flows and supply chains following the Strait of Hormuz crisis, CEO Ahmed Al Marhoubi told the news outlet.

Why it matters: While the Iran war has resulted in a near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Omifco’s production facilities in Sur sit entirely outside the chokepoint on Oman’s eastern coastline. The company maintained uninterrupted exports, capitalizing on a four-year peak in global nitrogen prices.

An India-Oman corridor asset: Omifco sits at the heart of India’s fertilizer supply chain, supplying urea to one of the world’s largest importers through a long-standing bilateral partnership. Between 2023 and 2025, India’s agrarian sector absorbed 71% of Omifco’s urea and 61% of its ammonia under long-term offtake agreements.

What’s next: Omifco is also evaluating a potential expansion that could significantly increase ammonia and urea production capacity, though no final investment decision has been made.

Apparel Group’s Mumbai listing

Dubai-based Apparel Group is testing India’s IPO market for its local retail business. The fashion and lifestyle retailer has started preliminary discussions with banks about a possible Mumbai listing of Apparel Group India, Bloomberg reports, citing people familiar with the matter. The offer could launch later this year or in early 2027.

The India play: Apparel Group India gives the Dubai retailer exposure to India’s consumer and retail market through more than 300 stores across over 50 cities and more than 20 brands, including Victoria’s Secret, Aldo, Crocs, Charles & Keith, Tim Hortons, and Nike Littles. Timing will be the main test, with India’s IPO market cooling as companies delay listings amid Iran-war-linked volatility and foreign investor outflows from the equity market.

Adia backs KRN Heat Exchangers

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (Adia) has backed Rajasthan-based precision equipment manufacturer KRN Heat Exchangers’ qualified institutional placement, in which the firm raised INR 3.5 bn (USD 36.8 mn), as per an exchange filing.

The details: The firm allotted 3.3 mn shares at INR 1k apiece, nearly 5x its IPO price of INR 220 in October 2024. Adia acquired 236k shares — 7.2% of the placement — marking its first investment in the company. WhiteOak Capital emerged as the largest participant, accounting for 31.6% of the issue, followed by VQ FasterCap and ValueQuest.

Cooling infra warms up investors: Based in Rajasthan, KRN Heat manufactures fin-and-tube heat exchangers used in ACs, refrigeration, and industrial cooling systems — benefiting from rising demand for cooling equipment linked to data centers, manufacturing expansion, and climate-control infrastructure.

Why it matters: Gulf sovereign capital is eyeing specialized industrial and manufacturing assets linked to AI infrastructure. The latest investment fits within Adia’s push into the infrastructure layer underpinning the global AI buildout. The fund previously invested USD 500 mn in AlphaGen, a US power infrastructure portfolio of over 11 GW, specifically structured to support data centers, and took a stake in Landmark Dividend, a digital infrastructure real estate company with data centers across major US markets. For KRN, the capital raise buffs up its balance sheet and provides a cushion against volatility in key input costs, such as copper and aluminum, supporting future expansion without materially increasing leverage.

India’s economy holds steady despite Gulf shock

India’s macroeconomic engines are humming along, with factory output and exports holding their ground even as the ongoing Gulf energy shock casts a long shadow over the nation's import bill, subsidy burden, and trade balance.

Factory output beats expectations

India’s industrial output expanded 4.9% y-o-y in April, beating the 3.9% expected by economists polled by Reuters. Manufacturing led the print with 6.2% growth, supported by a 16% rise in capital goods output. Consumer durables grew 4.3%, consumer non-durables rose 2.8%, and electricity generation increased 4.9%, while mining contracted 5.1%.

Fiscal deficit lands on target

Closing the books: India’s FY 2026 (ended on 31 March) fiscal deficit came in at INR 15.19 tn (USD 159.9 bn), or 4.4% of GDP, in line with the government's revised estimate. Net tax receipts rose to INR 33 tn, and non-tax revenue increased to INR 6.8 tn.

Spending cuts: The government met the deficit target partly by cutting spending. Total expenditure was around INR 596.91 bn below the revised estimate, Business Standard reports. Revenue spending was cut by INR 266.36 bn, while capital expenditure was reduced by INR 330.55 bn.

The new fiscal year opened with a heavier run rate. April’s fiscal deficit reached 21.4% of the full-year target, compared with 11.9% in the same month last year. Economists flagged risks from higher fertilizer and LPG subsidies, lower excise-duty collections, corporate tax shortfalls, and weaker dividends from oil marketing companies.

Exports surge

Exports grew in double digits during April and May, though full May trade data is due on 15 June. April exports rose 13.78% to USD 43.56 bn, the highest monthly outbound shipment value in more than four years. The trade deficit widened to USD 28.38 bn as imports also rose.

Fuel exports drag: India’s outbound fuel shipments fell sharply in May as refiners kept more supply at home during the Iran war shock, Bloomberg reports, citing Kpler data. Shipments of diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel averaged about 878k bbl / d in May, down 31% y-o-y, as refinery maintenance, a gasoline export tax and disruptions to incoming supplies reduced exportable volumes.

LPG priority: India had imported about 90% of its LPG from the Middle East before the war, making cooking-gas supply a policy priority after Hormuz flows were disrupted. Refiners raised LPG output to a record 52k tons / d in May, 50% higher y-o-y, but that left fewer barrels available for gasoline and diesel exports.

The export push is now more closely tied to trade negotiations. India is targeting USD 1 tn in exports this year and USD 2 tn over the next five years, according to Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal.

Australia’s AirTrunk plans major India data center expansion

Australian data center major AirTrunk has secured approval for a land allotment in Maharashtra to build a 3 GW data center with an investment of USD 21 bn, as per an announcement by the state’s Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis on X.

The nitty-gritty: Backed by US investment major Blackstone, AirTrunk operates data centers across Hong Kong, Japan, Malaysia, and Singapore. The proposed plan captures growing demand for AI, cloud computing, and digital infrastructure in India — with Mumbai already accounting for half of India's data center capacity and priming itself as a regional data hub — through tax incentives and policy support for foreign operators.

Why it matters: US tech majors are expected to commit more than USD 630 bn to India this year for data and digital infrastructure projects. Reliance Industries and Adani Group have committed some USD 210 bn to AI and data infrastructure earlier this year. Together, this capital race to build out AI infrastructure is underpinning India’s next phase of digital growth. AirTrunk, too, is moving to lock up land and power allocations before domestic conglomerates begin to monopolize hyperscale cloud demand in the country.

Domestic players want a slice of the AI pie

New Delhi-based real estate developer Anant Raj is set to invest INR 250 bn (USD 2.6 bn) to expand data center and cloud services operations in Haryana under an agreement with the state government, Reuters reports. The developer is seeking to diversify beyond real estate and is considering a demerger of its digital infrastructure business.

The big picture: India's data-center market, valued at about USD 5.6 bn in 2025, is projected to more than double to USD 13.1 bn by 2034, as demand for cloud computing, AI, and data localization drives a new wave of infrastructure investment.

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India appoints new ambassador to Saudi Arabia

Vipul named India’s ambassador to Riyadh

India has appointed veteran diplomat Vipul (LinkedIn) as its next ambassador to Saudi Arabia, placing a seasoned Gulf hand in one of New Delhi’s most strategically important diplomatic postings, as per an External Affairs Ministry press release. Vipul currently serves as India’s ambassador to Qatar and is expected to assume his new role shortly. The appointment caps nearly a decade of MENA-focused assignments, including his time as India’s Consul General in Dubai from 2017 to 2020 and as Joint Secretary (Gulf) in the foreign ministry from 2020 to 2023. His diplomatic career has also included postings in Cairo, Colombo, and Geneva.

Nilesh Ved appointed to UAE-India Business Council

Nilesh Ved (LinkedIn) has been named the chairman of the UAE-India Business Council’s UAE Chapter, succeeding founding chairman Faizal Kottikollon, as per a press release. Ved is the founder and chairman of AppCorp Holding Global and the owner of Apparel Group, which operates more than 2.5k stores across 14 countries. The Dubai-based retail entrepreneur founded Apparel Group in 1996 and has built massive consumer businesses in the GCC spanning fashion, food and beverage, e-commerce, logistics, and real estate.

Urban Company winds down Saudi Arabia subsidiary

India-based home services platform Urban Company has wound down its Saudi Arabia step-down subsidiary after the Kingdom’s Commerce Ministry canceled its commercial registration, according to a stock exchange filing (pdf). The company said the dissolution process was voluntary and was first disclosed in November 2025.

Urban Company will continue its presence in KSA through its joint venture with Saudi Manpower Solutions Company, running the Yammak platform. The shift keeps the company in the market while moving the operating structure away from a wholly owned subsidiary model. “Yammak has been scaling well with a clear path to profitability, and we remain very excited by the progress so far,” CEO Abhiraj Singh Bhal said on X.

Muted AI exposure and war spell trouble for Indian equities as AI shakeout puts other EMs ahead

Foreign investment in Indian equities hit its lowest level in nearly ten years, with Bloomberg reporting that overseas holdings dipped to INR 7.3 tn at the start of June. The slide marks a sharp reversal for a market that spent years as one of the standout destinations in emerging markets, drawing investors in with its strong GDP growth, expanding middle class, and young demographic dividend. Two converging forces are now driving the retreat.

The US-Iran conflict has rattled global investor sentiment, but India is absorbing the shock more acutely than most. As the world's third-largest oil importer, India is directly exposed to the elevated oil prices triggered by the conflict. Higher energy costs feed quickly into inflation, widen the current account deficit, and put downward pressure on the INR, which has already fallen from around INR 90 to beyond INR 95 against the USD.

The resulting risk-off sentiment has accelerated foreign outflows that were already underway: India recorded USD 17 bn in outflows by late 2025 as US tariff pressures and weaker global sentiment began to bite, with overseas ownership of NSE-listed firms falling to under 17% — around a 15-year low.

The second headwind is structural and longer-term, but investors are pricing it in now. India's economic model has long relied on a large, skilled, English-speaking workforce to power its services and outsourcing sectors — but that is precisely the category of labour most exposed to automation in the current AI cycle. That could threaten a core pillar of India’s GDP, and — unlike Taiwan or South Korea — India has a limited presence in the semiconductor and AI infrastructure supply chains that stand to benefit most from the current technology wave.

Despite the foreign exodus, there’s still been activity. The IPO market closed 2025 with a record USD 22 bn raised across more than 200 approved listings. The caveat: 75% of allocations were absorbed by domestic institutions and retail investors.

Who's picking up India's slack? The capital rotating out of India is, in part, finding a home in markets better positioned for the AI era. Taiwan and South Korea both have deep semiconductor and AI infrastructure exposure that India lacks. Taiwan has been climbing toward India's spot as the fifth-largest global equity market by capitalization — driven largely by TSMC, which climbed more than 25% in April alone. South Korea's Kospi has recently hit a record high.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Japan’s Nikkei hit record highs in early trading, echoing gains felt across Wall Street. The benchmark was up over 2% this morning with gains across automakers and tech stocks fueling the rally. The Shanghai Composite recorded at more modest gains, while the Hang Seng was in the red, down 1.2%

Sensex	74,368	-0.3% (YTD: -12.7%)
NIFTY 50	23,430	-0.2% (YTD: -10.3%)
ADX	9,562	-0.6% (YTD: -4.3%)
DFM	5,673	-1.02% (YTD: -6.1%)
Tadawul	11,014	-0.01% (YTD: +5%)
EGX30	52,576	-0.6% (YTD: +25.6%)
Boursa Kuwait	8,657	-0.4% (YTD: +4.2%)
QSE	10,372	-0.3% (YTD: -3.6%)
S&P 500	7,609	+0.1% (YTD: +11.1%)
FTSE 100	10,351	-0.2% (YTD: +4.2%)
Euro Stoxx 50	6,086	-0.3% (YTD: +5.09%)
Brent crude	USD 98	+2.3%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 3.2	+1.9%
Gold	USD 4,476	-0.9%
BTC	USD 66,714	-3.7%

The values in the table above are listed according to the market position as of 3:30pm IST / 2pm GST.

CALENDAR

JUNE

15-17 June (Monday-Wednesday): Prime Minister Narendra Modi to attend G7 Summit in Evian, France.

18-21 June (Thursday-Sunday): Bharat Buildcon, Yashobhoomi, Dwarka, Delhi.

24-25 June (Wednesday-Thursday): India Homeland Security Expo, Bharat Mandapam, Pragati Maidan, New Delhi.

26 June (Friday): Muharram.

Signposted to happen sometime in 1H 2026:

Signing of India-Qatar FreeTrade Agreement (Details yet to be announced);
India-EU Trade and Technology Council Ministerial Meeting, Brussels, Belgium;
India to host the Brics Summit.

JULY

1-3 July (Wednesday-Friday): Seafood Expo Bharat, Chennai Trade Centre, Chennai.

3-4 July (Friday-Saturday): Rail & Transit Expo (RailTrans), Bharat Mandapam, New Delhi

3-4 July (Friday-Saturday): SOMS International Exhibition & Conference, Gandhinagar, Gujarat.

8-10 July (Wednesday-Friday): India Energy Storage Week, New Delhi.

14-17 July (Tuesday-Friday) Bharat Tex, New Delhi.

22-24 July (Wednesday-Friday): Rail & Metro Technology Conclave, Bharat Mandapam, New Delhi.

AUGUST

15 August (Saturday): Independence Day.

26 August (Wednesday): Prophet Mohammad’s Birthday.

SEPTEMBER

1-3 September (Tuesday-Thursday): India Energy Week, Dwarka, New Delhi.

1-6 September (Monday-Saturday): Dubai Fashion Week, Dubai Design District.

7 September (Sunday): Opec+ meet to discuss production policy for October.

7-9 September (Monday-Wednesday): iPHEX 2026 International Pharmaceutical Exhibition, Bharat Mandapam, New Delhi.

8-11 September (Tuesday-Friday): Global Fintech Fest, Mumbai.

9 September (Tuesday): Envision 2025, Atlantis, The Royal, Dubai.

17-19 September (Thursday-Saturday) : Semicon India Conference, Yashobhoomi, Delhi.

OCTOBER

2 October (Friday): Gandhi Jayanti (Mahatma Gandhi’s Birthday).

20 October (Tuesday): Dussehra.

NOVEMBER

24 November (Tuesday): Guru Nanak Jayanti.

DECEMBER

8-11 December (Tuesday-Thursday), Expand North Star, Dubai.

25 December (Friday): Christmas Day.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2H 2026:

Monsoon Session of Parliament is expected to be held in July/August in New Delhi (TBA);
Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting for the September cycle (TBA);
India Mobile Congress will likely be held in October in New Delhi (TBA).

JANUARY 2027

30 January-3 February (Saturday-Wednesday): Printpack India, India Expo Centre, Greater Noida (Delhi NCR).

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