THIS AFTERNOON: Adnic enters Gift City with reins. licence; India-Gulf trade falls up to 66% in March

Good afternoon, everyone. We celebrate the news this morning of an indefinite ceasefire extension between the US and Iran, after US President Donald Trump made the announcement hours before the ceasefire was set to expire. The extension gives the two nations more time to negotiate.

How indefinite are we talking? Trump said the ceasefire will be extended until Iran submits its proposal and “discussions are concluded, one way or the other.” Washington’s blockade will continue until an agreement is reached.

It remains unclear where Iran stands: In the absence of a response from Tehran’s top leadership, Iran’s Tasnim News Agency stated that Tehran never sought a ceasefire extension and reiterated threats to break the US blockade of its ports by force. An adviser to Iran’s lead negotiator dismissed Trump’s announcement as insignificant.

As expected, global oil prices retreated on the news, despite an initial uptick at the opening of Asian trading earlier this morning. Brent crude is currently down 0.4% to USD 98.09 / bbl.

Mixed market response: The MSCI Asia Pacific ex-Japan Index eased 0.14%, dropping from a seven-week high. Japan’s Nikkei gained 0.5%, and South Korea’s Kospi eased around 0.6% in early trading this morning. US stocks are set to open in the green, with futures recording gains across the board.

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FINANCE — Abu Dhabi National Ins. Company (Adnic) will set up a reins. branch in Gujarat International Finance Tec-City (Gift City) after receiving regulatory clearance, CNBC reports, citing company disclosures. The approval enables Adnic to provide reins. out of India’s International Financial Services Centre, placing it within the country’s offshore financial regime for cross-border business.

Why it matters: India is positioning Gift City as a base for offshore ins. and reins. activity. The entry of foreign players such as Adnic expands Emirati presence within that ecosystem while supporting deeper India-UAE trade and investment linkages.

BACKGROUND- India and the UAE have agreed to facilitate the setup of UAE companies in Gift City, with First Abu Dhabi Bank and DP World among early movers. Mashreq is also planning an expansion there, while Abu Dhabi Investment Authority secured an approval in 2024 to set up a local unit and launch a USD 4-5 bn fund.

TRADE — India’s trade flows with the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq dropped by up to 66% y-o-y in March in light of the war disrupting shipping routes, energy supplies, and regional demand, according to data from the Commerce and Industry Ministry.

By the numbers: Exports to the UAE fell 61.9% to USD 1.2 bn, while imports dropped 66.3% to USD 2.5 bn. Meanwhile, exports to the Kingdom declined 45.6%, while imports fell 37.3% to USD 2 bn. Imports from Iraq plunged 64.3%. The decline reflects logistical bottlenecks in the Strait of Hormuz, elevated freight and ins. costs, and weakened trade activity across the Gulf region. India’s total goods and services exports saw an aggregate 4.5% downturn, indicating a broader impact on trade momentum.

Why it matters: The GCC is India’s largest trading bloc, accounting for over 15% of the country's total global trade. A prolonged blockade of sea transit will lead trade volumes to drop further in the coming months while adding to macroeconomic pressures along the economic corridor. However, the bottleneck’s impact will be uneven among India’s Middle East partners — Oman, less affected by the Hormuz blockade, stands out to gain as its trade with India already increased by 112% y-o-y in March.

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Data point

INR 2.91 tn (USD 31.11 bn) — that’s the value of India’s pharma exports in FY 2026, representing a 2% y-o-y increase despite global headwinds, The Hindu reports, citing data from the Pharma Export Promotion Council of India.

A sharp downturn in March saw exports plunge 23.1% y-o-y to USD 2.83 bn. This sudden reversal was driven by regional conflict-related shipping disruptions and new US tariffs that hampered major trade routes.

The big story abroad

The global front pages are focused on US President Donald Trump’s announcement of an extended ceasefire between the US and Iran, which we dive into in the news well, above. Also making headlines this morning:

How did Warsh’s confirmation hearing go? Trump’s Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh affirmedthe Fed’s independence during his Senate confirmation hearing, stating that Trump has not attempted to “predetermine, commit, fix, or decide on any interest rate decision.” Warsh called for major reforms at the Fed, including a new framework for handling inflation, and took issue with the central bank’s “forward guidance” — the practice of signaling the future trajectory of rates.

And your daily dose of AI news: SpaceX has gained the “right to acquire” AI startup Cursor for USD 60 bn, agreeing to pay USD 10 bn if it does not proceed with the transaction. The potential acquisition of Cursor — which enables users to edit code with AI — is seen as a way for Elon Musk to catch up in the AI race ahead of SpaceX’s IPO.

Market watch

Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have withdrawn a record USD 18 bn (INR 1.68 tn) from Indian equities so far in 2026, with bulk of selling concentrated in March, when investors pulled out USD 11.8 bn (INR 1.1 tn) as the Iran war triggered a spike in oil prices and risk-averse market sentiment, Business Standard reports.

Market mirror the stress: The INR’s depreciation — down 3.5% this year — has further reduced returns for foreign investors. The Sensex has declined nearly 8% and the Nifty 7% y-o-y so far this year. A sustained FPI return is contingent on easing geopolitical tensions, lower oil prices, and a stabilizing currency and earnings.

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