Indian refiners are finally weaning off Russian crude with imports expected to drop by up to 24% month-on-month in February, Vaibhav Raghunandan, energy analyst at Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (Crea) told EnterpriseAM, citing Kpler data.

WHAT WE KNOW: The shift is driven less by US-led diplomatic pressure and more by sanctions which are finally affecting commercial viability of imports, stated Raghunandan, as EU bans on refined Russian crude and US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil are starting to impact Indian refinery choices.

India’s Russian oil inflows fell 12% m-o-m in January, even as the total crude imports rose 4%, as per an analysis by Crea. In January 2026, India remained Russia’s second-largest fossil buyer amounting to USD 2.6 bn indicating an active rebalancing of supply sources rather than weakening demand. Crude oil dominated the basket, accounting for roughly 80% of that value.

“There are at least seven crude shipments out at sea right now, destined for India, but it remains to be seen whether they will eventually be delivered,” Raghunandan said.

Jamnagar pulls the brakes: Reliance Industries’ private Jamnagar refinery in Gujarat had long been one of the largest Indian buyers of Russian crude after 2022, having a long term contract with Rosneft. However, the export-only refiner did not receive a single seaborne Russian shipment in January, as per Crea. Plus, it recently secured a US license to buy Venezuelan crude.

State owned Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited, which also exports refined fuels to Europe, has not taken Russian crude since November last year, fearing loss of access to high-value export markets once refiners are linked to sanctioned Russian feedstock.

India turns back to the Middle East: Suppliers in the MENA region, particularly Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait, accounted for a substantial portion of the offset. Imports from these three nations saw a 7% m-o-m increase in January (equating to 1 mn tonnes), raising their combined share of the total imports by one percentage point to 40%, Raghunandan said.

Indian buyers are opting for higher-priced MENA barrels, despite Russian Urals trading at a discount to Brent. The discount no longer compensates for compliance risks, financing constraints, ins. complications, and reduced access to premium export markets, Raghunandan opines.

Downstream impact: With European buyers wary of violating sanctions, EU imports of refined fuels from Indian refineries were effectively halved in January this year and are expected to fall further, as per Crea. In 2025, Europe accounted for a fifth of India’s refined product exports.

India remains Russia’s second-largest coal buyer after China. Coal accounted for USD 522 mn of India’s Russian fossil fuel imports in January. But oil is the pivot, as changes in crude sourcing carry far greater implications for trade balances, refinery margins, and geopolitics.

Looking ahead: Further sanctions by the US or Australia on fuels refined from Russian crude, and stronger EU and UK restrictions on shipping, could raise compliance risks and push Indian refiners toward alternative suppliers, said Raghunandan. This will allow MENA suppliers a larger share in India’s crude mix given the long-term purchase agreement, geographical proximity and lower shipping costs. Conversely, any easing of US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, combined with wider price discounts, could revive Indian appetite for Russian barrels, he added.

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