Good morning, ladies and gents. We have a packed issue this morning with developments cutting across the regional logistics sector, and an update on Opec+’s highly anticipated meeting on output cuts…

HAPPENING NOW-

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) Annual General meetingand World Air Transport Summit kicked off yesterday in Dubai, and will conclude tomorrow. Shortfalls in aircraft deliveries, restrictions on flight routes due to conflicts, disruptions to supply chains, fuel charges, and other constraints to meeting the surge in post-Covid travel demand will be the focus of discussions at the IATA meeting, an industry expert told The National on Friday. Airlines will also hold talks on how to meet net-zero 2050 goals, including access to sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), the outlet said.

Shortages are expected to continue in the short term: Supply chain problems, including aircraft delivery shortfalls, lack of spare parts, and personnel shortages that first became apparent during the pandemic are expected to continue for at least another two years, GE Aerospace CEO and Chairman Larry Culp told the National on Saturday ahead of the IATA event.

Emirates is “extremely exasperated” with delivery delays from Boeing, Emirates President Tim Clark told Bloomberg (watch, runtime: 18:35). Boeing will likely need some five years to get out of its current slump and won’t succeed in regaining market share across all aircraft variants, Clark said. The delay has prompted Emirates to expand the retrofitting of its Boeing 777 fleet, resulting in a cost increase from USD 2 bn to USD 3.5 bn.

Emirates is cautious about ordering more Airbus A350s due to engine performance concerns, he added. “It’s a great plane,” he said regarding the A350 model. “But you’ve got to get it somewhere where you can put your hand on your heart,” he said.

IATA wants governments to remove barriers to airlines repatriating revenues: IATA noted a 28% y-o-y decrease in funds blocked from repatriation by governments to USD 1.8 bn by the end of April, according to a statement. “The reduction in blocked funds is a positive development,” IATA Director General Willie Walsh said, adding that fund repatriation is protected by bilateral agreements and is necessary to carrier operations. Much of the improvement was attributed to Nigeria, which cleared obstacles to repatriating 98% of USD 850 mn in blocked funds. Egypt also cleared substantial funds for repatriation. Eight countries still account for 87% of blocked funds remaining, including Algeria at USD 286 mn, and Lebanon at USD 129 mn, IATA said.

Safety was also brought up: “Safety foundations need to be addressed. 42 states in Africa and 5 states in the Middle East are below the effective implementation of ICAO standards,” IATA’s Regional VP for Africa and Middle East Kamil Alawadhi said.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- Opec+ decided to extend crude oil production cuts during its meeting in Riyadh yesterday, it said in a statement. The alliance will keep in place current production cuts of 3.66 mn barrels per day (bbl / d) until the end of this September, before beginning to “phase out the cuts of 2.2 mn bbl / d over the course of a year from October 2024 to September 2025,” Reuters reports. The group is scheduled to meet again on Sunday, 1 December 2024.

The bottom line: “We are waiting for interest rates to come down and a better trajectory when it comes to economic growth … not pockets of growth here and there,” Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said.

The UAE has also been granted a higher production quota of 3.5 mn barrels per day in 2025, up from the current 2.9 mn. This came despite the group pushing the deadline for an independent assessment of its members’ production capacities to November 2025 from this June, with the figures to be used as guidance for 2026 reference production levels.

REMEMBER- The UAE has been hoping to increase its capacity, and is on track to hit its 5 mn barrels per day (bbl / d) oil capacity target — originally set for 2027 — by the end of 2025 or early 2026.

BACKGROUND- Brent crude prices have been falling “amid a fragile economic outlook in top consumer China and doubts about the pace of interest-rate reductions in major industrialized economies,” Bloomberg writes. Brent crude has fallen some 11% since early April, to trade at USD 81.11 a barrel.

IN CONTEXT- Opec+ has largely stuck to a total of 5.9 mn bbl / d worth of cuts, Reuters notes, in a bid to prop up prices against a backdrop of waning demand from China and higher US shale production.

The story grabbed ink in Reuters, AP, Bloomberg, and CNBC.

#2- PIF-owned Riyadh Air is looking to expand its partnership network and is set to close an agreement in the coming days with a major southeast Asian carrier, Bloomberg reports, citing people it says are familiar with the plan. Riyadh Air is also working towards securing agreements with an Indian long-haul flight carrier as well as a US airline, according to Bloomberg, which stopped short of naming the carriers Riyadh Air is speaking with.

#3- Dubai’s RTA unveils AED 16.8 bn land transport strategy: Dubai’s Roads and Transport Authority (RTA) has unveiled a new roadmap that looks to boost the land transport and logistics sector’s contribution to Dubai’s economy to AED 16.8 bn, increase technology adoption by 75%, cut carbon emissions by 30%, and improve operational efficiency by 10%, according to a statement. The authority has identified 17 projects in its pipeline that include digitization, a heavy freight services platform, construction equipment rental services, road freight data centers, and updates to trucking fleets.

#4- Kuwait awards road + infrastructure contracts: Kuwait’s Public Authority for HousingWelfare (PAHW) has awarded contracts worth some KWD 173.5 mn (USD 564 mn) for the construction of road and infrastructure works, Trade Arabia reports. The contracts will see the preparation of roadways and infrastructure for 13.8k residential units to be located in Sabah Al Ahmad City, south of Kuwait City, the outlet said. A KWD 93.7 contract was awarded to China State Construction Engineering Corporation, with a second going to Sinohydro Corporation, after both outfits emerged as the lowest bidders. The project will be completed by both firms within 900 days, Deputy Director General for Oversight and Information Systems Affairs Amina Abdul Karim Al Awadhi said.

ALSO- The Kuwait-Saudi High Steering Committee has given the green light for a feasibility study on the Kuwaiti-Saudi railway, Kuna reported on Thursday, citing statements by Kuwait’s Minister of Public Works and Minister of State for Municipal Affairs Noura Al Meshaan. The joint steering committee meets on an almost daily basis with teams managing the railroad project, Al Meshaan added.

#5- Morocco is lining up a tender for a floating LNG terminal at Nador West Med port this summer, Reuters reported on Friday, citing comments made by Moroccan energy ministry head of oil and gas Abdelghafour El Hadjaoui. Morocco is looking to close a financial agreement on the project in 2025, with construction, commissioning, and commercial operations due to begin in 2026, El Hadjaoui said. The terminal will connect to an existing pipeline that facilitates the import of 0.5 bn cubic meters of LNG per year from Spanish terminals, and which Morocco intends to connect to gas fields under development in the east and west of the country.

Background: We first got wind of the initiative in early April, amid reports that it will be integrated with the Maghreb Europe Gas (MEG) undersea pipeline carrying gas from Africa to Europe.

#6- AD Ports inked an MoU with the Economic Development Board of Madagascar to explore investments in the maritime, industry and logistics sectors in Madagascar, Wam reported on Thursday. The two sides will look at potential cooperation on economic cities and freezones, ports, marina and cruise port facilities, digitizing logistics and maritime services, developing the fisheries sector, and the development of a maritime academy.

#7- Deutsche Bahn narrows DB Schenker bidding pool to four: Deutsche Bahn has chosen Maersk, DSV, Saudi national shipping carrier Bahri, and CVC’s consortium with Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA) and GIC for the final round of bidding for its logistics subsidiary DB Schenker, Reuters reported last week, citing sources with knowledge of the matter. Final bids will be submitted in July, two sources said. Bids last week ranged from EUR 14 bn to EUR 15 bn, with proceeds from the sale earmarked for paying down the railway operator’s EUR 34 bn debt, the newswire said. A final agreement is expected to be inked this year, with the sale expected to be finalized next year. CVC tapped ADIA to join its bid for DB Schenker less than two weeks ago.

MARKET WATCH-

Oil prices remained steady this morning as investors mull over the decision by Opec+ to extend deep production cuts into 2025, Reuters reported on Friday. Brent crude futures for August ticked down 0.05% to USD 81.07 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures for July slipped 0.01% to USD 76.98 a barrel. "The communication of a surprisingly detailed default plan to unwind extra cuts makes it harder to maintain low production if the market turns out softer than bullish OPEC expectations," Goldman Sachs analysts told the newswire.

Baltic index gains, buoyed by capesize demand: The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk sea freight index — which tracks rates for the capesize, panamax, and supramax vessel segments — was up 0.8% at 1,815 points on Friday, rising on the back of boosted demand in the capesize segment and logging a monthly gain, Reuters reported on Saturday. Capesize rose 2.6% to 2,820 points, while the panamax subindex dipped 1.5% to 1,693 points. Meanwhile, the smaller supramax segment ticked down 0.6% at 1,278 points, the newswire said.

DATA POINTS-

Iraq’s oil exports in April amounted to 102.4 mn barrels, according to an oil ministry statement released last week. Exports from oil fields in central and southern Iraq amounted to 100.9 mn barrels, while exports from Qayyarah field reached some 1 mn barrels, and exports to Jordan hit 449k barrels, the statement said.

Oman’s airports saw a 12.3% y-o-y increase in aircraft movements to 36k in the first four months of 2024, Muscat Daily reported on Thursday, citing data from the National Centre for Statistics and Information (NCSI). Muscat International Airport saw a 12.4% increase at 32.5k international and domestic flights, while Salalah also saw aircraft movements bump up to 3.1k, the outlet said. Meanwhile, total passenger numbers gained 16.4% during the period to 4.9 mn passengers. Muscat International Airport witnessed a 16.8% y-o-y boost in passenger traffic to 4.4 mn passengers, with Salalah Airport and Sohar Airports also seeing passenger numbers tick up 9.9% and 295% at 429k and 22.4k, the outlet also said.

Qatari port authority (Mwani) handled 123.5k TEUs in May, up 30% y-o-y, according to a statement. The port operator also processed 213.5k tons of cargo, 10.6k roro units, and 58.3k heads of livestock during the period, up 158%, 71%, and 19%, the statement said. Meanwhile, the number of vessels calling at the port stood at 242, up 7% when compared to May last year.

PSA-

Qatar’s Transport Ministry has inaugurated a new marine vessel registration office at Ruwais, according to a statement released on Thursday. The office will offer essential services for the registration and the renewal of registrations for vessels. Offices offering similar services are available at Al Khor, Doha’s old port, and the ministry’s HQ, the statement also said.

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

Lebanon will host the East Med Maritime Conference on Thursday, 27 June in Beirut. The event will gather industry leaders to discuss the latest developments in shipping, maritime, and offshore industries to discuss industry innovations, alternative fuels, and decarbonizing emissions in the maritime sector and ports.

Turkey will host the ACI Europe Annual Congress on Tuesday, 2 July to Thursday, 4 July in Istanbul. The event will bring together 500 C-level airport executives, as well representatives from businesses engaged with airports, airlines, aircraft manufacturers, and other stakeholders. The event will highlight discussions on the current state of the airport industry, geopolitics, the Turkish market, resilience, sustainability, and the diversification of revenues.

Check out our full calendar at the bottom of this email for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events and news triggers.