Good morning, folks. We have a balanced read today as we head into the weekend, with exciting warehouse and aviation updates from Egypt and Iraq. We also have an update on DP World’s India pilot for electrified rail freight tech. Let’s get the ball rolling.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- HD Hyundai mulls Casablanca shipyard bid: South Korean shipbuilder HD Hyundai Heavy Industries is reportedly considering bidding for the rights to operate the Casablanca shipyard, South Korean news outlet Seoul Economic Daily reports. The move could see the company expand its operations to North Africa and allow it to secure more orders from European clients.

ICYMI- The state-run National Ports Agency launched a tender in April for companies to develop, equip, and operate the Casablanca shipyard for 30 years.

IN CONTEXT- Morocco is hoping to jumpstart a local shipbuilding and repair industry, with eyes on replicating its success in becoming the African continent’s largest auto exporter. The shipyard is also set to clinch some of the regional demand for ship maintenance and repair services, especially from saturated shipyards in the Mediterranean.

#2- Air Arabia expands operations after Wizz Air pull-out: UAE-based budget carrier Air Arabia Abu Dhabi — Wizz Air’s long-standing rival — is expanding its total operational capacity in 2025 by 40% y-o-y to address “rising demand for air travel to and from Abu Dhabi,” CEO Adel Al Ali said in a statement. The airline — a JV between Etihad and Air Arabia — added two Airbus A320s to its fleet, bringing its total to 12 aircraft with plans to add two more by year-end.

But it's “too early” to tell whether Air Arabia Abu Dhabi will absorb Wizz Air’s airport slots, even with its planned capacity expansion, CEO of Etihad Airways Antonoaldo Neves told The National. The Abu Dhabi budget airline still “requires airplanes […] and pilots and they need to study that,” Neves said.

Is the flagship carrier sweeping in too? Etihad Airways announced plans to launch several new routes to the Caucus, Central Asia, and KSA earlier this week. “These slots are not the same [as Wizz Air] because they are different flight times,” Neves said when asked if Etihad was taking over the slots. “These destinations were part of our 2030 plan,” he added.

ICYMI- Budget airline Wizz Air shuttered its Abu Dhabi operations, citing unpalatable costs amid engine issues, unfavorable weather conditions, and geopolitical turmoil. The decision to phase out Abu Dhabi flights — which made up 5% of Wizz Air operations — will take effect on 1 September.

#3- Fourth floating regasification plant incoming to Egypt: US-based energy infrastructure company New Fortress Energy(NFE) has deployed the Energos Winter floating storage and regasification unit (FSRU) following a five-year charter agreement with the Egyptian Natural Gas Holding Company (EGAS), according to a press release. The FRSU will join NFE’s Energos Eskimo in Damietta in August.

The more the merrier: Egypt’s two recently-acquired FSRUs began operations sequentially yesterday after their connection to the national grid was previously delayed. The 450 mcf/d Energos Winter will bring Egypt’s total FSRU-based capacity to 2.7 bcf/d.

As Egypt was awaiting more FSRUs, the country’s reliance on diesel and gasoline climbed, with imports rising 65% y-o-y to 370k bbl/d in the first half of July, Bloomberg reports citing data from analytics firm Vortexa. The current inflows have surpassed all previous monthly records dating back to 2016, underlining the country’s mounting energy pressures amid declining domestic gas output and limited LNG infrastructure.

Egypt’s demand was so high that volumes available for Northwest Europe decreased, with Egypt pulling Middle East and Russia-sourced diesel and gasoline supplies towards the Mediterranean, Vortexa senior market analyst Pamela Munger told Bloomberg.

#4- Iran seizes oil tanker over smuggling claims: Iran has reportedly intercepted a foreign oil tanker of undisclosed origin, destination, and volume, for illegally transporting 2 mn liters of fuel in the Sea of Oman and lacking proper documentation, Reuters reports, citing the Chief Justice of Hormozgan Province Mojtaba Ghahremani. A case was opened in the province’s Jask County to investigate the incident, and the tanker’s crew was arrested, Ghahremani said.

This isn’t the first time: The Iranian gov’t has been combating rampant smuggling of its heavily subsidized local fuel — with the low prices making for high margins for smugglers looking to sell to neighboring countries. Last July, Iran intercepted a Togo-flagged, UAE-managed tanker carrying 1.5k tons of marine gas oil on smuggling allegations off the coast of Iraq and was headed for Sharjah Port in the UAE.

#5- Donald Trump rattled markets and sent the greenback down nearly 1% for a time yesterday as he stepped up his campaign against Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell. US media reported that the US president had earlier this week brandished a letter firing Powell and asked the lawmakers he was meeting with whether he should send it.

BACKGROUND- Trump has waged a blunt campaign against Powell for months now, pressuring him to cut interest rates and suggesting he’s open to firing Powell if the chairman doesn’t come to heel.

Where things stand now: “We’re not planning on doing anything,” Trump said overnight. “I don’t rule out anything, but I think it’s highly unlikely, unless he has to leave for fraud, and it’s possible there’s fraud.”

Wait, fraud? Powell? The guy’s a straight-shooter’s straight-shooter, but that hasn’t stopped Republicans from trying to trump-up (pun intended) charges against him. Trump’s winged monkeys are angling to use an over-budget, USD 2.5 bn project to renovate the Fed’s HQ against Powell.

WHY IT MATTERS- The news raised fresh doubts about whether the Fed would, under the next Trump-appointed Fed boss, continue to set monetary policy independent of political interference. It's not a stretch to say the independence of the Fed is one of the cornerstones of the global financial system. An independent Fed can make politically unpopular decisions — to, say, control inflation — without pressure from elected officials seeking short-term gains in popularity. Over the long term, an independent Fed is better able to deliver price stability and drive economic growth — that’s fundamentally what preserves confidence in both US financial markets and the greenback: global investors know that (today, at least) monetary policy is being set for economic reasons, not political ones. Go deeper with the Wall Street Journal here.

Can Trump really fire Powell? Maybe. A law on the books since 1913 gives the president the power to fire the Fed chairman, but only for “cause” — and what constitutes “cause” is largely undefined.

We’re going to cross the Rubicon one sooner or later: Powell’s term is up in May 2026.

Go deeper: The news is all over global front pages this morning, with each of the following outlets running multiple stories and explainers: Associated Press | Reuters | Bloomberg | Financial Times | Wall Street Journal.

MARKET WATCH-

#1- Oil prices surged early this morning after data from the world’s top oil consumers showed a robust economic outlook, Reuters reports. Brent crude futures increased by USD 0.62 to reach USD 68.79 a barrel by 00.00 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures rose USD 0.31 to trade at USD 66.69 a barrel.

But oil demand growth for 2025 is projected to be the lowest since 2009, excluding pandemic years, with demand expected to grow by a modest 700k bbl/d in 2025 to reach 104.4 mn bbl/d, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA) monthly report.

The forecast follows a softer-than-expected demand in 2Q in 2025, where annual demand growth slowed to just 550k bbl/d, down from 1.1 mn in the first quarter. Demand is expected to jump by some 720k bbl/d in 2026.

Meanwhile, production in 2Q rose by some 950k bbl/d m-o-m in June to hit 105.6 mn bbl/d, driven largely by Saudi Arabia and other Opec+ producers. For the full year, world supply is expected to climb by 2.1 mn bbl/d, reaching 105.1 mn bbl/d. The trend is expected to persist into 2026, with another 1.3 mn bbl/d of growth projected — mostly from non-OPEC+ sources.

IN OTHER DATA FROM OUR REGION- UAE’s Crude output climbed to mn bbl/d by 2Q from 2.94 mn bbl/d in 1Q, reflecting a 50k bbl/d jump, according to Opec’s monthly oil report (pdf). Saudi Arabia showed a similar trajectory, moving from 8.9 mb/d to 9.2 mb/d over the same period. Total Opec production jumped from 26.8 mn bbl/d to 27.02 over the same period.

Forecast: The group expects oil demand growth to remain around 1.3 mn bbl/d in 2026, in line with last month’s expectations.

#2- Baltic index rises once again: The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk sea freight index — which tracks rates for the capesize, panamax, and supramax vessel segments — has increased 2.1% to 1,906 points on Wednesday, buoyed by gains from the bigger-sized vessels segement. The capesize index rose 4.3% to 2,642 points, while the panamax index was down 1.2% to 1,967 points. The smaller supramax index rose 2.2% to 1,315 points.

DATA POINT-

Suez Canal receipts are expected to reach USD 6.3 bn in the current fiscal year, according to data from the IMF’s country staff report (pdf). The canal’s returns are expected to continue recovery to reach USD 8.2 bn in FY 2026-27, bringing them back to roughly the same levels recorded during FY 2022-2023 before the start of Red Sea disruptions in December 2023 caused the reduction of foreign exchange inflows from the vital waterway by USD 6 bn in 2024.

REMEMBER- This recovery is contingent on continued calm in the essential maritime route — something that the Houthis have disrupted this month after they resumed attacks on ships in what they said was a response to Israel’s actions in Gaza.

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CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

Mozambique will host Intermodal Africa on Tuesday, 22 July and run till Thursday, 24 July in Beira. The forum will host over 300 senior government officials, industry leaders, academics, senior executives, and harbor masters in the ports, shipping, and logistics sector. Attendees and speakers will be coming from countries across the Middle East, Africa, and Europe.

Oman will host Transport Middle East on Monday, 1 September and run till Wednesday, 3 September in Salalah. The conference will host 35 international speakers and over 50 exhibitors from the maritime sector to discuss global transportation and logistics.

Saudi Arabia will host the Sustainable Maritime Industry Conference on 3-4 September at the Ritz-Carlton Hotel in Jeddah. The event is set to gather over 60 speakers and more than 3k participants to discuss maritime decarbonization, digital transformation, regulatory frameworks, capacity building, and sustainable practices.

Check out our full calendar at the bottom of this email for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events and news triggers.