Good morning, friends. The Hormuz blockade might be stopping tankers — or turning themaround — but energy players are still chasing bread. We could see a USD 25 bn Nigeria-Morocco gas pipeline agreement (aka the African Atlantic Gas Pipeline) signed this year. Egypt is also reportedly in talks with AD Ports to rent out warehouses for crude oil and refined products, with an agreement potentially closing before the end of 2Q.

On a less upbeat note: Pressure on Tehran is mounting after Washington decided not to renew a 30-day waiver of sanctions — set to lapse this Sunday — on Iranian oil at sea, Reuters reports. The waiver has allowed roughly 140 mn barrels of oil to reach global markets.

Watch this space

PORTS — AD Ports goes all-in on the Middle Corridor with Romania agreement: AD Ports Group signed a strategic agreement with Romania’s National Company Maritime Ports Administration to modernize the Port of Constanța, the Black Sea’s largest maritime hub, according to a statement. The agreement opens the door to joint work on port development, digitalization, and sustainability — spanning renewable energy, waste management, and emission cuts.

Why this matters: By expanding into Constanța, AD Ports is extending its presence along the Middle Corridor, building on recent investments across Central Asia and the Caucasus. The Black Sea port offers a potential link between these inland assets and European markets, supporting the development of an alternative east-west trade route.

Location, location, location: Constanța’s position on the Black Sea — and at the center of the Danube-Black Sea Canal — makes it a critical gateway between maritime routes and inland Europe. The port handled 88 mn tonnes of cargo and around 1 mn TEUs in 2025, cementing its role as a multimodal hub for trade flows, particularly grains moving out of Eastern Europe and Central Asia.

ENERGY — Arab Gulf oil producers can restore 50% of their shut capacity in just two weeks once the Strait of Hormuz reopens and can ramp that up to 80% just a month later, Bloomberg cites the International Energy Agency as saying in its last monthly oil report. The resumption would be contingent on companies mobilizing workers, contractors, and stabilizing supply chains.

The final 20%? That might take longer to restore, primarily due to reduced pressure in the fields and other technical constraints.

But it’s not so easy: Reopening Hormuz has become more complicated after the US naval blockade took effect earlier this week, pushing crude briefly past USD 100 / bbl and putting regional producers on high alert after Tehran threatened to retaliate against wider maritime infrastructure.

Market watch

Oil prices recorded a mixed bag this morning as supply risks persist with Hormuz still mostly shut, Reuters reports. Brent crude futures gained USD 0.40 to trade at USD 95.19 / bbl by 04.20 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell USD 0.23 to USD 91.05 / bbl.

The Baltic Index maintains upward trajectory: The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk index — which tracks rates for the capesize, panamax, and supramax vessel segments — rose 4.6% to 2,354 points on Tuesday. The capesize gained 6.8% to 3,671 points, while the panamax index increased 2% to 1,900. The smaller supramax was up 1.8% to 1,344 points.

Global oil demand is now expected to shrink by 80k bbl / d this year — a 730k bbl / d downgrade from last month’s outlook, as the disruption rips through consumption patterns, according to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) latest monthly report. The reversal comes after the IEA had already cut its 2026 growth estimate to 640k bbl / d last month — meaning the outlook has now swung from growth into outright decline.

The hit is front-loaded, with global oil demand falling by 800k bbl / d y-o-y in March, set to drop by 2.3 mn bbl / d in April, and projected for a 1.5 mn bbl / d drop in 2Q — marking the sharpest contraction since Covid-19.

On the logistically strained supply side: Global oil supply fell by 10.1 mn bbl / d in March to 97 mn bbl / d, as infrastructure attacks and tanker restrictions around Hormuz choked flows. Flows through the strait — normally some 20 mn bbl / d — have been reduced to just 3.8 mn bbl / d. The export loss exceeds 13 mn bbl / d, pushing cumulative supply losses to more than 360 mn barrels in March and a projected 440 mn in April.

Oil with no exit is piling up: With exports effectively blocked, crude and product storage started ballooning across the Middle East, with floating storage rising by 100 mn barrels and onshore stocks up by 20 mn barrels.

The watchdog’s base case assumes flows begin to normalize by midyear, but it also lays out a prolonged disruption scenario with deeper economic fallout. “In this case, energy markets and economies around the world need to brace for significant disruptions in the months to come,” the IEA said.

Opec is holding a calmer line: The group still forecasts global demand growing by 1.38 mnbbl / d this year, implying consumption of roughly 106.4 mn bbl / d, standing in contrast to the IEA’s call for a slight contraction to just under 105 mn bbl / d — a gap of around 1.5 mn bbl / d on next year’s outlook.

Data point

SAR 1.6 bn — that’s the net income recorded by Saudi Arabia’s nine listed transport companies in 2025, down 27.4% y-o-y after Flynas swung to a SAR 527 mn net loss from SAR 433.5 mn in net income a year earlier. The hit was largely due to Flynas booking SAR 1 bn in non-recurring IPO-related expenses, including an SAR 981.9 mn one-time employee share-based payment charge and SAR 101 mn in IPO fees.

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