Good morning, ladies and gents. We’re ending the week with a slight fizzle as the news cycle slows considerably, and flynas experiences a bit of a rough landing on Tadawul…

WATCH THIS SPACE-

[#1- Flynas’ shares dipped 3.4% on Tadawul debut yesterday to close at SAR 77.30 apiece, according to market data. The stock slid 13% intraday, with trading briefly halted twice. The company’s share will still be subject to the usual Tadawul debut rules — a 30% price fluctuation cap and a static 10% band over the first three sessions, followed by a 10% daily circuit breaker onwards.

Choppy airspace: The IPO marks the region’s first main market listing since the outbreak of the Israel-Iran conflict last week — a geopolitical shock that triggered a regional sell-off, severely denting investor sentiment. Aviation stocks were among the hardest hit due to widespread disruptions to commercial flight schedules. The muted debut suggests investor caution is creeping in, even for marquee names, as volatility clouds sentiment across the Gulf.

REFRESHER- Flynas priced its IPO at the top of the range it was guiding on — SAR 80 per share — after its institutional offering was 100x oversubscribed, booking SAR 409 bn in orders. The company took a 30% stake to market in a hybrid offering with an implied market cap of SAR 13.7 bn at listing. Proceeds will be split between funding its growth plans, selling shareholders, and the firm’s employee incentive program.

ADVISORS- Goldman Sachs Saudi Arabia, BSF Capital, and Morgan Stanley Saudi Arabia are joint financial advisors and underwriters. BSF Capital is also serving as lead manager. Bookrunners include Emirates NBD Capital KSA, Goldman Sachs Saudi Arabia, Al Rajhi Capital, BSF Capital, Citigroup Saudi Arabia, NAB Capital, and Morgan Stanley Saudi Arabia. Receiving agents include BSF Capital, Al Rajhi Capital, SNB Capital, and Riyad Capital, among others.

#2- Israel may restart smaller volumes of natural gas exports to Egypt and Jordan as early as today, but domestic needs will continue to take priority, Bloomberg quotes Israeli Energy Minister Eli Cohen as saying in a statement yesterday. Tel Aviv shuttered the Leviathan field earlier this week, as well as the Karish field, removing 800 mn cubic mcf/d from its national gas grid. Reduced gas flows from Israel not only mean an increased reliance on significantly more expensive LNG or Mazut imports, but also put a significant strain on the country’s efforts to keep the lights on ahead of high-demand summer months.

#3- Regional unrest halts Qatar LNG Hormuz traffic: Qatar has directed inbound LNG and petrochemical vessels to remain outside the Strait of Hormuz until they are cleared to load due to simmering tensions in the region, Bloomberg reports, citing an unnamed source. Vessels approaching the waterway are being redirected, turned around, or idling, according to Bloomberg’s ship-tracking data.

Signal disruption trouble: Two oil tankers collided in the Strait of Hormuz off the Emirati coast on Tuesday, with zero reported casualties and no resulting spillage. This came after upwards of 900 vessels in the Arabian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz reported disrupted signals over the past weekend, increasing the likelihood of collisions.

Turkey has also raised the security protocol of ships bound for Iran and the Strait of Hormuz to the maximum level, Anadolu Agency reports, citing a statement by Turkish Transport and Infrastructure Minister Abdulkadir Uraloğlu. “We have increased the security level to three within the scope of the International Ship and Port Facility Security Code so that ships can be prepared against security threats,” the statement said.

What does this mean? Stricter security measures will take place, including more thorough cargo searches and potential pauses in loading, unloading, and ship purchasing activities. Access to the ship may be limited to a single, controlled entry point, with entry granted only to authorized personnel. Port staff will direct the ship's crew, and entry/exit may be temporarily suspended as needed.

MARKET WATCH-

#1- Oil prices fell in early morning trading as Trump’s mixed messages on US involvement in the Israel-Iran conflict caused investors to take pause, Reuters reports. Brent crude futures dipped USD 0.37 to USD 76.33 a barrel by 01.10 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures for July shed USD 0.28 to trade at USD 74.86 a barrel. The more active WTI August contract dipped USD 0.21 to trade at USD 73.29 a barrel.

MEANWHILE- Brent crude’s premium to Middle Eastern benchmark Dubai widened above USD 3/bbl yesterday — its highest since September 2023 — amid fears of supply disruptions following the escalation of the conflict between Iran and Israel, Reuters reports, citing LSEG data and market sources. The Brent-Dubai Exchange Futures for Swaps (EFS) for August settled at a USD 3.33 premium, the newswire added, citing three oil brokers.

The EFS spread is also widening due to expectations of higher Opec exports, and the overnight jump in Brent Crude on Tuesday, LSEG senior oil analyst Emirl Jamil told the newswire.

Brent’s first-month futures contract is now trading at its highest premium to the six-month contract in nearly two years. This market structure — where near-term prices are higher than later prices, known as backwardation — reflects concerns about supply tightness.

Dubai crude has also gained ground, with prices reaching their highest premium in more than two months this week, while shipping costs to move oil from the Middle East to Asia have risen. Potential disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz, through which around 20% of the world’s seaborne oil passes, remains a key concern for market participants.

#2- Baltic index dips once again: The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk sea freight index — which tracks rates for the capesize, panamax, and supramax vessel segments — fell 4% 1,874 points on Wednesday. The capesize was down 6% to 3,442 points, while the panamax index slipped 2% to 1,378 points. The small supramax index inched up 4 points to settle at 949.

DATA POINT-

Dubai Commerce of Chamber members recorded AED 85.9 bn in exports and re-exports during 1Q 2025, representing 16.8% y-o-y growth, state news agency Wam reports. GCC countries accounted for 47.2% of total trade volume, valued at AED 40.5 bn.

The breakdown: Middle Eastern markets outside the GCC ranked second with a 29.1% share valued at AED 25 bn, followed by Africa at AED 9.1 bn, or 10.6%. The Asia-Pacific region contributed 9.4% (AED 8 bn), while Europe accounted for AED 2.4 bn (2.8%). North and Latin American markets represented less than 1% combined.

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CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

The UAE will host Middle East Rail from Tuesday, 24 June to Thursday, 25 June in Dubai. The conference at Dubai World Trade Center will host over 250 speakers and a multi-brand exhibition for transport solutions.

Mozambique will host Intermodal Africa from Tuesday, 22 July to Thursday, 24 July in Beira. The conference will host 35 speakers, to address challenges in global and regional maritime trade and investment.

Check out our full calendar at the bottom of this email for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events and news triggers.