Good morning, ladies and gents. It’s a busy start to the week in the regional logistics sector with updates piling up from every corner of our neck of the woods. Let’s dive right in.

HAPPENING TODAY-

The Electric Vehicle Innovation Summit will open its doors today in Abu Dhabi and run through to Wednesday. The event will see industry leaders come together to discuss sustainable mobility and tapping into groundbreaking advancements in electric vehicles while engaging with key decision-makers. Over in Riyadh, The Future Aviation Forum is kicking off today and will wrap on Wednesday. The event, organized by the General Authority of Civil Aviation, will see the Kingdom showcasing some USD 100 bn worth of investment options in the aviation and logistics sector at large.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- Rescue teams are searching for three Syrian crew members missing at sea from a cargo ship that sank off Romania’s Black Sea coast, Reuters reported on Saturday, citing a statement by the Romanian naval authority. The Mohammed Z, a Turkish-owned vessel sailing under the flag of Tanzania, was heading from Istanbul to Sulina, Romania, Marine Traffic reports. It is not yet clear what caused the vessel to sink.

Not the first incident: Another Turkish cargo ship sank in the Black Sea in late November after likely crashing into a breakwater off Eregli, killing one crewmember and leaving 11 missing.

#2- UAE’s Air Arabia is looking to expand its fleet size to 90 aircraft by year-end with more leased planes, CEO Adel Abdullah Ali told Gulf News on Thursday. The company’s current order book of 120 aircraft has been pushed from 4Q 2024 to 2H 2025 due to supply chain issues, leading the carrier to lease 10 airplanes last year and eight this year, he added. “So, we should be just over 90 airplanes by the end of 2024, which is within our target. In 2025, we will start receiving 120 orders in phases over five years,” Ali said.

Plans for the future: “Let us look at the geopolitical (issues) and let the world become a calmer place. Let us (hope) the supply chain sorts itself out and all the engines in today's world become more mature. If all those happen, and the business continues to grow, we will need (more planes), and we will order,” Ali said. Regarding whether the airline plans to acquire wide-body aircraft, Ali said “we continue to work on the 'If it's not broken, don't fix it' model. The business model is working… We don't feel a need to consider wide-body aircraft for now. What the future holds, I don’t know.”

#3- Saudi Arabia has plans to set up six new airports as well as nine additional terminals at existing airports as part of its ambitious aviation strategy, General Authority of Civil Aviation (Gaca) President Abdulaziz Al Duailej told Al Arabiya last week (watch, runtime: 5:00). The Gaca chief said the private sector will have a key role in implementing the aviation strategy, which will see the sector opening up to privatization. He said the strategy aims to bring the sector’s contribution to GDP to over SAR 8 bn by 2030.

The targets: Gaca aims to double air freight capacity and the design capacity for cargo warehouses to reach 4.5 mn tons of cargo. It also aims to increase passenger numbers from 100 mn pre-pandemic to 330 mn and expand air connectivity from about 100 to more than 250 destinations by the end of the decade.

ALSO- Mawani could ban imports from 20 carmakers based on a request by the Saudi Standards, Metrology, and Quality Organization citing the exporters failure to submit their 2024 supply plans on time, Argaam reported on Thursday, citing a Mawani circular. The report did not specify which carmakers could face a ban.

#4- UNDP estimates big Suez Canal losses if Gaza crisis continues: The UN Development Program (UNDP) estimates that the war in Gaza could cost Egypt’s economy between USD 5.6 bn and USD 19.8 bn — 1.6-5.2% of the country’s annual average GDP — throughout the current and upcoming fiscal years, depending on how far the conflict escalates, according to a recent report (pdf).

Suez Canal and tourism revenues are expected to take a big hit, with the UN body penciling in a loss of between USD 3.7 bn and USD 13.7 bn during the course of the two fiscal years. The UNDP warned that lower FX inflows coupled with a widening current account deficit would strain the country’s FX reserves and increase inflationary pressures.

The rationale: The report assesses the economic impact of the Gaza war across three possible scenarios, all backdated to February 2024. These are a low-intensity scenario in which there is little regional escalation and the war lasts six months, a medium-intensity scenario in which there is limited regional escalation and the war lasts nine months, and a high-intensity scenario in which there is more significant regional escalation and the war lasts 12 months.

Take it with a grain of salt: The report is based on information out until February 2024, meaning it doesn’t take into account the float of the EGP or the USD bns of funds secured nu Egypt from the Gulf and international partners since then.

#5- Iraq expects to halt gas imports by 2027 when domestic production is expected to meet the country’s needs, Iraqi parliamentarian Alaa Al Haidari told INA last week. The country awarded almost all of its 30 oil sites to foreign firms last week, spurring optimism that the country will be able to switch away from imports, Al Haidari said. Iraq imports some USD 5 bn worth of gas from Iran each year to meet shortages.

#6- Iran inked 21 contracts worth some USD 2.75 bn to develop “sea-based technologies” and promote maritime trade last week, IRNA reported. The contracts include the purchase of five vessels slated for use on the International North-South Transit Corridor (INSTC), the construction of five additional vessels, the establishment of a smart dry port at Zahedan, the purchase and construction of some 40k TEUs, the purchase and construction of 12 container ships, and the purchase and construction of five methanol carrying ships, IRNA said.

REMEMBER- Iran closed a USD 370 mn 10-year contract last week with India’s Indian Ports Global Limited (IPGL) to manage and develop Chabahar port, with the move seeing pushback from Washington.

DISRUPTION WATCH-

Global LNG trade has fragmented between the Atlantic and Pacific basins: Houthi-led attacks have closed the Red Sea to LNG shipments, forcing shippers to reroute around the southern tip of Africa in order to move LNG between the Atlantic and Pacific basins, limiting supplies and fragmenting the global LNG market, Bloomberg reported on Thursday. “At the moment, more than ever, you have cargo segmentation of the two basins, and it will be more challenging economically to move a cargo from one basin to another,” head of LNG trading at TotalEnergies, Patrick Dugas said. The new dynamics are forcing traders to look for buyers closer to where shipments are loaded, in a bid to save on transportations costs, especially as fuel costs rise leading up to winter, the outlet said.

A possible solution is to swap cargoes by transporting US LNG to Europe, and finding replacement suppliers to meet contractual obligations in Asia, Bloomberg writes. US and Qatar-based LNG producers have been mulling the tactic since February as a means to get around bottlenecks at the Suez and Panama canals.

MARKET WATCH-

#1-Oil hits highest prices since early May: Oil prices gained this morning as political instability looms upon news that Iran’s president has died in a helicopter crash and Saudi’s ruling family grapples with a health crisis, Reuters reports. Brent crude reached USD 84.08 a barrel, its biggest gain since May 10 while US West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) futures for June increased 1.1% to USD 80.01, its highest point since May 1, and the July contract was up to USD 83.75. June’s contract will expire tomorrow.

#2- Baltic index hits worst week in seven: The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk sea freight index was down 13.4% last week, its worst in seven on the back of weaker demand across vessel types, Reuters reported on Saturday. However, the index, — which tracks rates for the capesize, panamax, and supramax vessels — was up 1.49% to 1,844 points. The capesize subindex inched up 4.57% to 2,675 on Friday, but tumbled 18% for the week, while the panamax fell 1.08%, to 1,825, its lowest point since 17 April. The supramax index ticked down 20 points to 1,405.

#3- Drewry’s World Container Index (WCI) gained 11% to USD 3,5k per 40ft container for the week ending Thursday, up 104% y-o-y, maritime research and consultancy firm Drewry reported. The latest WCI index is also 147% greater than the average 2019 pre-pandemic rate of USD 1,420 per 40 ft container. Meanwhile, the average YTD composite index stands at USD 3,241, USD 524 above the USD 2,717 10-year average, Drewry added.

DATA POINTS-

#1- Iran’s oil production jumped by 50k barrels per day in April, hitting a five-year high of 3.3 mn bpd and exceeding the previous month’s 3.25 mn bpd produced, Mehr News Agency reported on Saturday, citing the International Energy Agency (IEA). The country’s current oil production remains 300k bpd below figures recorded prior to US sanctions. Total OPEC oil production amounted to 26.97 mn bpd for the month.

#2- Egypt’s General Authority of Red Sea Ports handled 704k tons of goods in April, an 11% increase y-o-y, according to a statement. Exports during the period stood at 500k tons, jumping 146% y-o-y, while imports totaled 204k tons. Safaga port handled 482k tons of goods, a 12% y-o-y rise, while the port of Suez handled 43k tons, an increase of 330% y-o-y.

#3- The MENA e-commerce sector saw a growth rate of 11.8% in 2023 hitting AED 106.5 bn, Wam reported on Friday, citing the fourth edition of the E-commerce in the Middle East and North Africa 2023 report by EZDubai. The value of the sector is expected to nearly double by 2028 to AED 183.6 bn. The UAE’s e-commerce market reached AED 27.5 bn in 2023, and is expected to surpass AED 48.8 bn by 2028.

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

Barbados will hostUNCTAD’sGlobal Supply Chain Forum from Tuesday, 21 May to Friday, 24 May in Bridgetown. UNCTAD is holding the event in collaboration with the Government of Barbados, which aims to evaluate the role global supply chains have in supporting economic growth, creating jobs, and reducing poverty. Global industry leaders, policymakers and experts will convene to discuss forthcoming issues and explore innovative solutions.

Oman will host the Comex Technology Show from Monday, 27 May to Saturday, 30 May in Muscat. The event will see representation from industry leaders and decision makers to showcase buyer potential in innovative technology, in transportation, logistics, energy and healthcare sectors.

Egypt will host ProPak MENA from Sunday, 26 May to Tuesday, 28 May in Cairo. The conference will see F&B manufacturing industry professionals network and discover the latest equipment and logistic solutions for processing and packaging.

The UAE will host the IATA Annual General Meeting and World Air Transport Summit from Sunday, 2 June to Tuesday, 4 June in Dubai. The event will bring together aviation industry players to showcase what can be achieved through supportive government policies and decisions. Airline leaders will make decisions during the event to formalize industry positions and set IATA’s strategic agenda.

Lebanon will host the East Med Maritime Conference on Thursday, 27 June in Beirut. The event will gather industry leaders to discuss the latest developments in shipping, maritime, and offshore industries to discuss industry innovations, alternative fuels, and decarbonizing emissions in the maritime sector and ports.

Check out our full calendar at the bottom of this email for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events and news triggers.