Good morning, nice people. We have a brisk read for you this morning. But first, Egypt's Transport Ministry is set to reject AD Ports' sweetened mandatory tender offer for ALCN, a senior government official tells us, even after the Emirati group raised its bid nearly 20% to EGP 27.47 per share.

Meanwhile, a trade route that's been dormant for five years is quietly switching back on. Saudi Arabia lifted its ban on Lebanese goods over the weekend — a move that won't move the needle on container volumes tomorrow, but signals something bigger about where the region's trade lanes are headed.

Plus: Mark your calendars for Friday. The US and Iran will ink an agreement to end the war and reopen Hormuz on Friday — the agreement is “now complete,” according to US President Donald Trump. However, contrary to Trump’s statement, the Iranian side said the agreement calls for the reopening of Hormuz within 30 days.

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Calming the waters

DP World is trying to reassure bond investors it can weather the war. The company’s management has been meeting local and international fund managers ahead of an EUR 750 mn bond maturing in September, Bloomberg reported last week, citing people familiar with the matter. The company has the money to repay it outright, but would prefer to refinance in the market if conditions allow.

It has numbers to support it: Jebel Ali volumes dropped 30% y-o-y in 1Q 2026, though that only captures one month of full Hormuz disruption. Fitch expects DP World to manage its USD 2.6 bn in 2026 maturities through a combination of capital markets access and available liquidity.

The long way around

Oil tanker traffic through the Suez Canal jumped 28% y-o-y in April to 529 tankers, pushing monthly waterway revenues up 27% to a two-year high of USD 419 mn as the effective closure of Hormuz forced more Gulf energy flows onto Red Sea routes. Overall canal traffic also rose 14% y-o-y to around 1.2k vessels.

Behind the bump: Saudi Arabia has leaned on Yanbu for crude exports through the Red Sea, while Jeddah and broader Saudi overland routes have become a workaround for some Gulf trade. Some tankers are still moving south past Bab El Mandeb, but part of the rerouting is also feeding northbound traffic through Egypt, giving Suez an upside after two years of Red Sea disruptions that have hammered crossings and cost Egypt an estimated USD 9 bn in lost revenue.

… but the return is fragile: “Most major liner operators have only recently started cautiously reintroducing some Suez transits, and any escalation could delay or reverse that process,” Antonella Teodoro, senior transport consultant at MDS Transmodal, tells EnterpriseAM after Yemen’s Houthis announced a renewed ban on Israeli-linked vessels’ navigation in the Red Sea.

Less is more?

Washington is tapping its emergency oil reserves again — offering energy companies up to 40 mn barrels of crude as a loan, with a 24% premium, in a bid to cool fuel prices while supply routes stay under pressure. The offer is part of Washington’s earlier pledge to release 172 mn reserve barrels, with about 133 mn barrels already loaned.

The US says the structure should help stabilize markets while rebuilding the reserve over time. Energy Secretary Chris Wright has said the premium barrels could add 35-40 mn barrels back to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) in 2026-2027.

The cushion has already thinned: Since the regional conflict began, US crude inventories — including strategic reserves — fell by nearly 79 mn barrels. Separately, US Energy Information Administration data shows the SPR itself fell from 415.4 mn barrels to 349.2 mn barrels.

Market watch

Oil prices hit a three-month low this morning — after the US and Iran announced a preliminary agreement to end the conflict and reopen Hormuz, Reuters reports. Brent crude futures slipped USD 4.08 to trade at USD 83.25 / bbl by 04.15 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) declined USD 4.35 to USD 80.53 / bbl.

The Baltic Index stops the bleeding: The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk index — which tracks rates for the capesize, panamax, and supramax vessel segments — remained steady at 2,729 points on Friday. The capesize index fell 0.8% to 4,107 points, while the panamax index rose 1.4% to 2,283 points. The smaller supramax index rose 0.6% at 1,642 points.

The Drewry World Container Index rose 3% to USD 3,549 per 40-ft container last week, according to the latest index readings. The lift came as transpacific and Asia-Europe rates moved higher, with Shanghai-New York up (7%) Shanghai-Los Angeles (3%), Shanghai-Rotterdam (5%), and Shanghai-Genoa (1%). East-West freight markets are firming as an early peak season, longer Red Sea-linked transit times, and earlier inventory restocking ahead of major June-July sales events push importers to book sooner, while Middle East tensions, higher bunker costs, and fuel surcharges keep rates under pressure.

Data point

47.1 — that’s Egypt’s PMI reading for May, up slightly from April’s 37-month low of 46.6 but still below the 50.0 growth threshold for a fifth consecutive month, S&P Global Market Intelligence's David Owen says in S&P Global’s latest report (pdf).The modest pickup in non-oil private-sector activity came alongside a sharp resurgence in pricing pressures, with selling-price inflation accelerating to its second-highest reading in the survey’s history. The jump confirms that the cost restraint seen in March and April was unsustainable, as businesses increasingly passed higher input costs on to customers, Owen says.

PSA

ANL is pushing Asia-Pacific rates higher: ANL — the CMA CGM-owned container line focused on Oceania trades — will raise rates on all dry and reefer cargo moving from Northeast Asia, Southeast Asia, the Indian subcontinent, the Middle East, and the Gulf to Fiji from 1 July — adding USD 300 per 20-ft container and USD 600 per 40-ft standard or high-cube container.

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