Good morning, nice people. We are kicking off February strong, with a brisk read led by solid IPO and financing updates from Egypt’s last-mile delivery sector.

What we know: Last-mile delivery outfit Bosta is said to be eying an IPO for 20-30% of its equity capital, in a move that could help it raise as much as EGP 8 bn. The move could mark the first last-mile listing on the EGX, and comes as Bosta invests in automation assets to increase productivity. PLUS: Last-mile delivery workers who want to go electric might soon have access to credit from Alexbank and Orascom.

Meanwhile, we have more on how shifting geopolitics are taking a toll on the maritime and aviation sectors. In Turkey, Besiktas Shipping is committing new ships to Asia routes as it pauses Russian voyages following strikes on its Mersin vessel off Senegal last year. Further west, Canada’s aviation giants may be in the mix for a fresh 50% tariff threat from the Trump administration.

The big logistics story abroad

Canada’s aviation industry could be the latest casualty in US President Donald Trump’s trade wars, after he threatened to impose a 50% tariff on all Canadian-made planes and decertify the Global Express jets produced by Canada’s Bombardier. The threats come as part of a larger effort to pressure Canada to speed up the certification of aircraft developed by US commercial jet producer Gulfstream.

What we know about the possible impact: The tariffs could hit Canada’s jet-maker Bombardier and potentially Airbus’ Canada-based production of the A220 model. Meanwhile, the decertification threat would not impact active plans, White House officials said.

REMEMBER- Trump has threatened Toronto with a 100% tariff in response to its push to deepen trade ties with China, accusing Prime Minister Mark Carney of turning Canada into a “drop-off” port for Chinese goods

Watch this space

AVIATION — Moroccan national carrier Royal Air Maroc (RAM) will lease 13 new Boeing 737-8 aircraft from Dubai Aerospace Enterprise (DAE), according to a press release published last week. Delivery is slated for 2027.

The rationale: The order comes as RAM capitalizes on leases to back its long-haul-focused expansion strategy amid industry-wide delivery delays and supply chain woes. The carrier — which plans to roll out nine new international destinations from Casablanca just this year — is forecasting that a third of its fleet will be acquired via leases by 2028.

LAST MILE — Alexbank and Orascom Investment Holding’s Blu EV are developing a new microfinancing model to move Egypt’s delivery fleet to electric, which they say can increase riders’ take-home pay by some 35%, according to a joint statement (pdf). The two signed an MoU for the program to provide simplified credit for electric motorcycles, specifically targeting those working in last-mile delivery and the gig economy.

Why it matters: The partnership addresses the primary friction point for commercial EV adoption — high upfront costs. By combining a 0% down payment with 36-month repayment plans and 48-hour credit approvals, the program lowers the barrier to entry for delivery riders and small business owners — who typically lack access to traditional bank credit — to make the move to electric that will ultimately save them money in the long run.

PORTS — CMA CGM expands its US port operations game: French shipping giant CMA CGM has formed a new US-based port venture — named United Ports — with investment firm Stonepeak, valued at some USD 10 bn, according to a statement published last week. The new JV will absorb 10 of CMA CGM’s major port terminals worldwide, spread across six countries — including New York’s Port Liberty, Los Angeles’ Fenix Marine, Brazil’s Santos, Spain’s Bilbao and Valencia, and India’s Nhava Sheva.

The details: CMA CGM will hold the majority share, retaining a 75% stake in the company, while Stonepeak is slated for a 25% stake, valued at USD 2.4 bn. The venture aims to boost investments in new terminals. Stonepeak could earmark an additional investment of up to USD 3.6 bn in funding for future projects. The agreement is still subject to regulatory approvals and is expected to be tied up in 2H 2026.

Background: The announcement comes just less than one year after the French shipping giant pledged a USD 20 bn push into US logistics infrastructure by the end of the decade. It also aligns with the Trump Administration’s latest push to revitalize its ports and shipping industries as part of its rising attention to China’s supremacy in the fields.

Market watch

Oil prices took a dip this morning on the heels of de-escalating US-Iran tensions, Reuters reports. Brent crude futures were down USD 2.81 to trade at USD 66.51 / bbl as of 03:52 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) decreased by USD 2.70 to USD 62.51 / bbl. Prior to this trading session, Brent was at its highest in six months, and the WTI was at a four-month high.

In context: The de-escalation comes after the Trump administration signaled it is open to a diplomatic solution with Iran, prompting Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey to work to broker a sitdown between the US and Iran that could take place this week in Ankara, Axios reported, citing sources it says are in the know.

From Opec+ land: The oil-producing cartel Opec+ decided to keep its planned oil production hikes on ice through March, chalking up the move to “seasonality.” Further cuts or hikes this year will depend on market conditions, with the next meeting slated for 1 March.

Playing it safe: The pause gives the producers space to gauge market conditions amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty. By delaying hikes despite healthy markets, Opec+ is also signaling it is more focused on keeping prices stable than they are on acquiring a bigger slice of the market share.

Opec+ expects global oil demand to rise by 1.39 mn bbl / d this year, while demand for its own crude will hold steady at 43 mn bbl / d. If Opec+ holds this rate through 2026, supply would sit some 170k bbl / d below demand.

Over in our region, Saudi Arabia is expected to price its flagship Arab Light crude at a markdown for March shipments to Asian buyers — the first such move since December 2020 — thanks to abundant supply, Reuters reports, citing a survey of six refining sources. The grade is expected to see a USD 0.50-0.85 cut per barrel, down from a February premium of USD 0.30 / bbl, marking the lowest level in over five years and a continuation of three consecutive months of declines. This would place Arab Light at a markdown of USD 0.20-0.55 / bbl against the Oman/Dubai average.

The Baltic Index goes higher: The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk sea freight index — which tracks rates for the capesize, panamax, and supramax vessel segments — surged 7.3% to 2,148 points on Friday, its highest since mid-December. The capesize jumped 12% to 3,507 points, while the panamax index rose 1.6% to 1,743. Meanwhile, the smaller supramax index added 5 points to hit 1,067.

The Drewry World Container Index decreased by 5% to USD 2,107 per 40-ft container last week, according to the latest index readings. The decline is driven by a drop across the transpacific and Asia-Europe rates, especially the Shanghai-New York (7%) and Shanghai-Los Angeles (4%) routes, after the easing of the Chinese New Year demand rush.

A further decline is expected over the next few weeks, according to Drewry. A decline is in line with forecasts of a supply glut in 2026 and 2027 that could drive a sharp dip in shipping prices, as the potential full return to the Suez Canal meets a record-breaking wave of new ship deliveries, shipowner association Bimco previously said in a report seen by EnterpriseAM.

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