Good morning, ladies and gents. We have a brisk but packed issue this morning — led by two stories about agreements that aren’t done yet but are moving fast. AGL wants to take Egytrans Nosco off the board — a full buyout, an EGX delisting, and a valuation north of EGP 2.76 bn, by our math. And over in the UAE’s Jafza, DP World just broke ground on a logistics center with Arcapita that won’t open until 2027.
Business as usual
Energy flows remain resilient: Middle Eastern oil and gas producers are continuing to load cargoes through the strait despite renewed attacks on commercial shipping and an exchange of strikes between the US and Iran over the weekend. The latest incidents briefly raised concerns over the durability of Washington and Tehran’s interim agreement, though both sides agreed to halt the latest hostilities and resume talks over the strategic waterway.
Even as traffic remains well below normal: Kpler data showed 29 tankers passed through the waterway on 24 June — the highest daily total since the conflict began — but still far below the pre-conflict average of around 125 daily sailings. However, exact volumes are difficult to verify as some vessels continue to go dark for security reasons while transiting the Gulf.
REMEMBER- The UAE and Kuwait both launched crude tenders last week, testing whether buyers are ready to return to the strait following the US-Iran interim agreement, while Saudi Arabia resumed loadings at Ras Tanura on the west coast.
Not everyone is confident: Pakistan launched an LNG tender over the weekend, pointing to the continued uncertainty over flows through Hormuz, while India’s state-owned refiners are planning to reduce their reliance on Middle Eastern crude following the war, with considerations on trimming long-term purchases from the Gulf in favor of more spot-market cargoes.
BACKGROUND- The move came after a series of attacks on commercial vessels, prompting the Joint Maritime Information Center to raise the threat level in the region. Pakistan has relied on the spot market after disruptions to cargoes from Qatar, though it frequently cancels tenders if Qatari supplies become available or if spot prices prove too high.
Why it matters: The continued movement of cargo suggests Gulf producers remain determined to keep exports flowing despite intermittent security incidents, while buyers — such as Pakistan — and shipowners remain cautious. India’s consideration suggests that importers may no longer treat the disruptions as a one-off event, and even as exports recover, buyers may be inclined to pay a growing premium for flexibility, redundancy, and supply security.
Price reshuffle
Adnoc is consulting refiners and traders on plans to change how it prices three of its key crude grades sold under long-term contracts, Bloomberg reports, citing people in the know. Under the proposal, the official selling prices for Upper Zakum, Das, and Umm Lulu would be priced as a differential to the Dubai benchmark for cargoes loading two months ahead, replacing the current methodology that prices them against flagship Murban futures. Adnoc has reportedly held discussions with customers in Singapore and Japan, though no implementation timeline has been set.
Moving to a Dubai-linked pricing formula would bring Adnoc’s secondary crude grades more in line with regional market conventions, making them easier for Asian refiners to compare with competing grades, like Oman or Arab Light, that are priced against Dubai-linked benchmarks.
Our take: The shift could also support the UAE’s strategy to expand spot trading and market larger crude volumes following its exit from Opec in May by aligning its pricing with the benchmark most widely used in the region.
A barrel short of bullish
Morgan Stanley cut its oil price forecasts for the second time in about two weeks, citing a faster-than-expected Hormuz traffic recovery, resilient US supply, and soft Chinese demand, Bloomberg reports. The bank now sees dated Brent averaging USD 75 / bbl in 3Q and 4Q — down USD 15 in 3Q and USD 5 in 4Q — with all four 2027 quarters also revised lower, and dated Brent seen at USD 70 by end-2027.
Why it matters: Brent futures fell about 30% this quarter as the US-Iran peace agreement opens the door to more tanker traffic through Hormuz. Morgan Stanley estimates that flows only need to recover to about 65% of pre-conflict levels to balance the market in 2027, suggesting prices still have room to fall. Goldman Sachs has also cut its outlook, and bearish signals like contango pricing — where future prices trade above spot — point to a market already pricing in a glut.
The bearish turn is broadening: The downgrade comes as analysts cut their 2026 oil price forecasts for the first time since the Iran war began, according to a Reuters poll. The survey lowered its average Brent forecast to USD 84.5 per barrel from USD 90.4 per barrel a month earlier. The shift reflects growing expectations that the market is heading back into surplus, with analysts expecting Opec to continue gradually raising production.
Market watch
Oil prices rose this morning as doubts over a US-Iran peace agreement raised supply concerns, Reuters reports. Brent crude futures gained USD 0.33 to USD 73.28 / bbl by 03.39 GMT, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) increased 0.34 to USD 69.84 / bbl.
The Baltic Index snaps losing streak: The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk index — which tracks rates for the capesize, panamax, and supramax vessel segments — rose 0.4% to 2,501 points on Tuesday, buoyed by bigger vessel segments. The capesize index increased 0.3% to 3,548 points, while the panamax index rose 1.4% to 2,154 points. The smaller supramax index slipped 0.1% at 1,666 points.
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