Good morning, nice people. The US-Iran war is once again dominating headlines after Iran attacked the UAE and the US sank Iranian boats crossing Hormuz — casting doubts about an already shaky ceasefire.
Trouble in Hormuz, again: An attack was reported on Adnoc’s (empty) Barakah tanker, which was attempting to pass through the strait. The tanker was safe with no reported injuries, but the UAE accused Iran of what it says was an unprovoked “terrorist attack” and demanded it halt all hostilities. Later, there were reports of a fire erupting at the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone, and the UAE said it intercepted three cruise missiles from Iran while a fourth fell into the sea.
Iran seems to be targeting every oil export route the UAE has. The Strait remains blocked, and now the Fujairah pipeline, which has been carrying out half of the UAE’s output since the war began, is likely compromised.
No strait, no problem…? Our big story of the day dives into Pakistan’s push to open a land-side workaround for Iran-bound cargo — routing shipments through Gwadar and overland corridors to bypass Hormuz.
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ENERGY — UAE exits another oil alliance: The UAE officially withdrew from the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (Oapec), according to a statement. The move follows the Emirates' surprise exit from Opec and Opec+ late last month.
Oapec? The Kuwait-headquartered alliance was founded in 1968 to foster cooperation between Arab oil-producing nations, focusing on technical research, joint ventures, and regional energy policy. The organization does not play a role in setting global oil prices and production quotas. The UAE was not a founding member.
TRADE — Gas fixes outweigh Hormuz risk: Global gas supplies could offset roughly twice the volumes lost to the Strait of Hormuz closure by tackling gas flaring and leaks. Around 110 bcm of LNG — some 20% of global LNG flows — passed through Hormuz last year. At the same time, the International Energy Agency estimates that cutting methane emissions could unlock about 100 bcm annually, with another 100 bcm from eliminating non-emergency flaring.
Stop losing gas before chasing more: Nearly 15 bcm could be made available quickly enough to offer some relief to gas markets if producers and importing countries move to abatement measures, the energy watchdog says. Those measures include plugging pipeline leaks, replacing defective equipment, and capturing gas rather than flaring it.
Our take: LNG stranded by the conflict cannot be rerouted at scale, because exports from Qatar and the UAE have no meaningful alternative route to global markets.
Market watch
Oil prices fell over 1% this morning after a 6% gain as the US moves in Hormuz signaled supply relief, Reuters reports. Brent crude futures declined USD 1.22 to trade at USD 113.22 / bbl by 03.23 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) slipped USD 2.02 to USD 104.40 / bbl.
The Baltic Index maintains its rising trajectory: The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk index — which tracks rates for the capesize, panamax, and supramax vessel segments — was up 0.6% to 2,686 points on Tuesday, buoyed by gains in the bigger vessel segments. The capesize rose 1% to o 2,670 points, while the panamax index increased 0.7% to 1,992. The smaller supramax slipped 0.6% to 1,525 points.
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