AGL targets full buyout of Egytrans Nosco at up to EGP 2.76 bn

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

TODAY: AGL moves to take full control of Egytrans Nosco

Good morning, ladies and gents. We have a brisk but packed issue this morning — led by two stories about agreements that aren’t done yet but are moving fast. AGL wants to take Egytrans Nosco off the board — a full buyout, an EGX delisting, and a valuation north of EGP 2.76 bn, by our math. And over in the UAE’s Jafza, DP World just broke ground on a logistics center with Arcapita that won’t open until 2027.

Business as usual

Energy flows remain resilient: Middle Eastern oil and gas producers are continuing to load cargoes through the strait despite renewed attacks on commercial shipping and an exchange of strikes between the US and Iran over the weekend. The latest incidents briefly raised concerns over the durability of Washington and Tehran’s interim agreement, though both sides agreed to halt the latest hostilities and resume talks over the strategic waterway.

Even as traffic remains well below normal: Kpler data showed 29 tankers passed through the waterway on 24 June — the highest daily total since the conflict began — but still far below the pre-conflict average of around 125 daily sailings. However, exact volumes are difficult to verify as some vessels continue to go dark for security reasons while transiting the Gulf.

REMEMBER- The UAE and Kuwait both launched crude tenders last week, testing whether buyers are ready to return to the strait following the US-Iran interim agreement, while Saudi Arabia resumed loadings at Ras Tanura on the west coast.

Not everyone is confident: Pakistan launched an LNG tender over the weekend, pointing to the continued uncertainty over flows through Hormuz, while India’s state-owned refiners are planning to reduce their reliance on Middle Eastern crude following the war, with considerations on trimming long-term purchases from the Gulf in favor of more spot-market cargoes.

BACKGROUND- The move came after a series of attacks on commercial vessels, prompting the Joint Maritime Information Center to raise the threat level in the region. Pakistan has relied on the spot market after disruptions to cargoes from Qatar, though it frequently cancels tenders if Qatari supplies become available or if spot prices prove too high.

Why it matters: The continued movement of cargo suggests Gulf producers remain determined to keep exports flowing despite intermittent security incidents, while buyers — such as Pakistan — and shipowners remain cautious. India’s consideration suggests that importers may no longer treat the disruptions as a one-off event, and even as exports recover, buyers may be inclined to pay a growing premium for flexibility, redundancy, and supply security.

Price reshuffle

Adnoc is consulting refiners and traders on plans to change how it prices three of its key crude grades sold under long-term contracts, Bloomberg reports, citing people in the know. Under the proposal, the official selling prices for Upper Zakum, Das, and Umm Lulu would be priced as a differential to the Dubai benchmark for cargoes loading two months ahead, replacing the current methodology that prices them against flagship Murban futures. Adnoc has reportedly held discussions with customers in Singapore and Japan, though no implementation timeline has been set.

Moving to a Dubai-linked pricing formula would bring Adnoc’s secondary crude grades more in line with regional market conventions, making them easier for Asian refiners to compare with competing grades, like Oman or Arab Light, that are priced against Dubai-linked benchmarks.

Our take: The shift could also support the UAE’s strategy to expand spot trading and market larger crude volumes following its exit from Opec in May by aligning its pricing with the benchmark most widely used in the region.

A barrel short of bullish

Morgan Stanley cut its oil price forecasts for the second time in about two weeks, citing a faster-than-expected Hormuz traffic recovery, resilient US supply, and soft Chinese demand, Bloomberg reports. The bank now sees dated Brent averaging USD 75 / bbl in 3Q and 4Q — down USD 15 in 3Q and USD 5 in 4Q — with all four 2027 quarters also revised lower, and dated Brent seen at USD 70 by end-2027.

Why it matters: Brent futures fell about 30% this quarter as the US-Iran peace agreement opens the door to more tanker traffic through Hormuz. Morgan Stanley estimates that flows only need to recover to about 65% of pre-conflict levels to balance the market in 2027, suggesting prices still have room to fall. Goldman Sachs has also cut its outlook, and bearish signals like contango pricing — where future prices trade above spot — point to a market already pricing in a glut.

The bearish turn is broadening: The downgrade comes as analysts cut their 2026 oil price forecasts for the first time since the Iran war began, according to a Reuters poll. The survey lowered its average Brent forecast to USD 84.5 per barrel from USD 90.4 per barrel a month earlier. The shift reflects growing expectations that the market is heading back into surplus, with analysts expecting Opec to continue gradually raising production.

Market watch

Oil prices rose this morning as doubts over a US-Iran peace agreement raised supply concerns, Reuters reports. Brent crude futures gained USD 0.33 to USD 73.28 / bbl by 03.39 GMT, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) increased 0.34 to USD 69.84 / bbl.

The Baltic Index snaps losing streak: The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk index — which tracks rates for the capesize, panamax, and supramax vessel segments — rose 0.4% to 2,501 points on Tuesday, buoyed by bigger vessel segments. The capesize index increased 0.3% to 3,548 points, while the panamax index rose 1.4% to 2,154 points. The smaller supramax index slipped 0.1% at 1,666 points.

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AGL bids to fully acquire and delist Egytrans Nosco

French logistics group Africa Global Logistics (AGL) submitted an indicative non-binding offer to acquire up to 100% of EGX-listed Egytrans Nosco — with a floor of 75%, according to a bourse disclosure (pdf). At a provisional range of EGP 11.25-12.25 per share, the high end of the offer would value the company at EGP 2.76 bn, by our math. The plan includes taking Egytrans Nosco off the EGX, with AGL pledging to keep key execs on for at least four years after the mandatory tender offer (MTO).

Here’s what the transaction hinges on: AGL needs Egytrans Nosco’s shareholders to sign off on the move before it can file for approval from the Financial Regulatory Authority (FRA) to launch an MTO. The company will also run a full due diligence sweep on Egytrans Nosco and will need to clear regulators in three jurisdictions — Egypt’s Competition Authority, the Comesa Competition and Consumer Commission, and Saudi Arabia’s General Authority for Competition.

Who sits at the cap table: Nosco-related parties hold 29.8% of the company, the National Investment Bank holds 18.3%, the Leheta family holds 8.7%, and the remaining 43.2% sits in freefloat. This means AGL’s 75% minimum execution threshold can’t be hit through freefloat tenders alone — it needs more than one of the three concentrated blocks to come along.

The premium: The upper end of the price range represents an 18.4% premium to Egytrans Nosco’s Monday close of EGP 10.35, its last price before AGL’s intentions were made public.

AGL is prepared to pay in foreign currency: AGL says it already has the liquidity on hand to fund the transaction, with a proof-of-funds letter ready to be submitted to the FRA as required. The company also reserved the option to settle the offer in USD or EUR rather than EGP, subject to approvals from the FRA and the Central Bank of Egypt.

Market Reax- Egytrans Nosco’s shares closed up 3.38% at 10.70 apiece yesterday on the news.

What’s up for grabs

About Egytrans Nosco: The integrated transport and project logistics operator was created last year through a reverse merger — the first of its kind on the EGX — between listed Egytrans (70.2% of shares) and Nosco (29.8%). The company’s core business — logistics services — has been growing roughly 50% per year, with the combined entity now managing some 72k sqm of storage capacity, CEO Abir Leheta told us back in December.

The corporate umbrella: Egytrans Nosco operates through a set of affiliates like Nosco, Egytrans Logistics Solutions, Egytrans Warehousing Solutions, Egytrans Depot Solutions, Wilhelmsen Port Services, Nafith Egypt, and Egytrans Arabia — some of which it inherited through the merger.

REMEMBER- The company entered Saudi Arabia in 2023 through a joint logistics venture with Links Investments and spent the past year digitalizing port logistics through two major truck-management concessions — a Nafith International partnership worth EGP 1 bn-plus at Ain Sokhna and an earlier EGP 250 mn project at West Port Said. These moves positioned the company squarely on the trucking bottleneck that absorbs over 90% of Egypt’s internal freight movement.

DP World, Lintara to build Grade A logistics facility in Jafza by 2027

Another Jafza warehouse breaks ground: DP World and Lintara Properties — Arcapita's real estate platform — broke ground on a 20k sqm build-to-suit logistics center in the Jebel Ali Freezone, according to a statement. Lintara is building the Grade A facility, while DP World is set to operate it as part of its regional supply chain network once construction finishes in 1Q 2027. No investment ticket has been disclosed.

The spec sheet is built for complexity, not just storage: The facility — designed to serve complex supply chain needs instead of simple cargo transfers — is set to feature a roughly 12-meter clear height, temperature-controlled zones, dedicated dangerous-goods storage, plus office and operational support space.

Lintara stays involved well past groundbreaking: The company will manage development until construction is complete before overseeing the asset in operation, part of Arcapita’s broader push into tenant-led logistics real estate across regional hubs.

IN CONTEXT- This is Lintara’s second Jafza warehouse announcement in three weeks. DSV's 30k sqm facility, also developed by Lintara, broke ground in Jafza last month, according to a separate statement.

Joe Joseph takes over as DHL’s CFO next year, succeeding Melanie Kreis

A new CFO at DHL Group: DHL Group appointed Joe Joseph as chief financial officer (CFO), effective 1 June 2027, according to a statement. Joseph — who succeeds Melanie Kreis — currently serves as CFO of DHL Express, a role he's held since 2014, after more than 28 years with the unit in finance leadership positions across the Middle East, Asia, and Europe.

AD Ports eyes green bunkering at Khalifa Port + dnata holds its ground at Schiphol for seven more years

Bunkering, but make it green

Bunkering ambitions at Khalifa Port: AD Ports Group and IRH Global Trading have signed an MoU to explore bunkering services and alternative marine fuels — including LNG, biofuels, and methanol — for vessels calling at Khalifa Port, according to a statement. The agreement also covers potential cooperation on fuel storage infrastructure, terminal facilities, and fuel sampling and testing capabilities.

None of it is binding: The MoU commits no capital, sets no capacity target, and gives no timeline. IRH is angling to extend its global energy trading platform into physical fuel supply, with Khalifa Port as the entry point.

Dnata locks in another seven years at Schiphol

Dnata has retained its ground handling license at Amsterdam Airport Schiphol, securing the hub for another seven years after a competitive public tender, as the airport moves into its next operational phase, according to a statement.

A decade-deep at Schiphol: The Dubai-based ground handler has served airlines at Schiphol for over a decade, supporting more than 20 passenger and cargo carriers with passenger, baggage, ramp, and cargo services. Its 1.2k local team handles around 500k tons of cargo and 16k flights annually.

Kazakhstan joins the race to build energy resilience

Kazakhstan’s one-pipeline problem: Kazakhstan is stepping up efforts to diversify its oil export routes after repeated disruptions to the Russian-backed Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) showed the risks of relying on a single corridor that carries around 80% of the country’s crude exports, according to a recent Financial Times film (watch, runtime 25:17). Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, attacks on infrastructure around the Black Sea export route have periodically disrupted Kazakh shipments, forcing producers to curb output and prompting Kazakhstan to accelerate investments in alternative logistics corridors.

Alternative routes are growing — but they’re still nowhere near replacing the CPC. Kazakhstan has started moving crude through the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline to the Mediterranean (1.4 mn tons), resumed exports to Germany through the Druzhba pipeline (1.5 mn tons), and continued exporting crude to China by pipeline (1.2 mn tons). Even combined, these routes — with a total of 4.1 mn tons — cannot match the roughly 60 mn tons of oil that move annually through the CPC, leaving the Russian corridor firmly at the center of Kazakhstan’s export system.

Hedging on logistics to reduce that dependence over time, Kazakhstan is expanding the Caspian port of Aktau to increase shipments across the Caspian Sea and to expand oil exports through the BTC route to 2.2 mn tons by 2026. Broader investments in the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route aim to raise freight volumes from 4.5 mn tons last year to 20 mn tons by 2030. Officials also want logistics’ contribution to rise from 6.5% to 9-10% over time.

There’s another problem: The Caspian Sea is shrinking. Sea levels have fallen roughly two meters over the past two decades, forcing Kazakhstan to dredge parts of the Aktau port to keep ships moving. Officials acknowledged that dredging alone won’t solve the problem, arguing that broader regional cooperation will be needed to manage the Caspian’s long-term environmental decline.

Why it matters: Kazakhstan remains heavily reliant on hydrocarbons despite years of diversification efforts. Oil production has increased fivefold since the country opened its upstream sector to foreign investors in the early 1990s, but dependence on a single export route has become a growing strategic vulnerability as the war in Ukraine increasingly spills into energy infrastructure.

Diversification, not divorce: Officials interviewed by the FT argue that oil will remain Kazakhstan’s dominant industry for at least the next two to three decades, while investments in manufacturing, logistics, and critical minerals are intended to create new sources of growth rather than a substitute for petroleum revenues.

Our take hasn’t changed — only the evidence has grown stronger: Kazakhstan’s scramble to reduce its reliance on the CPC is another reminder that energy logistics is no longer just about moving barrels along the cheapest route. Geopolitical shocks — from the war in Ukraine to attacks in the Red Sea and repeated tensions around Hormuz — are forcing producers to pay for redundancy, optionality, and resilience. That means investing in multiple export corridors, spare capacity, and alternative ports, even when they are more expensive, because the cost of having no alternative has become much higher than the cost of maintaining one.

Calendar

AUGUST

30 August-1 September (Sunday-Tuesday): Air Cargo Middle East, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

30 August-1 September (Sunday-Tuesday): Saudi Warehouse and Logistics Expo, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

SEPTEMBER

16-17 September (Wednesday-Thursday): Saudi Maritime & Logistics Congress, Dammam, Saudi Arabia.

22-24 September (Tuesday-Thursday): Seamless Middle East, Dubai, UAE.

28-30 September (Monday-Wednesday): Transport Logistics Middle East, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

OCTOBER

12-14 October (Monday-Wednesday): The Airport Show, Dubai, UAE.

21-22 October (Wednesday-Thursday): Global Ports Forum, Singapore.

26-29 (Monday-Thursday): Air Cargo Forum, Miami, US.

27-29 October (Tuesday-Thursday): Routes World, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

NOVEMBER

2-5 November (Monday-Thursday): ADIPEC Maritime and Logistics Exhibition and Conference, Abu Dhabi, UAE.

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