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A land-side workaround to Hormuz

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

TODAY: Pakistan tests land-side workaround to Hormuz constraints

Good morning, nice people. The US-Iran war is once again dominating headlines after Iran attacked the UAE and the US sank Iranian boats crossing Hormuz — casting doubts about an already shaky ceasefire.

Trouble in Hormuz, again: An attack was reported on Adnoc’s (empty) Barakah tanker, which was attempting to pass through the strait. The tanker was safe with no reported injuries, but the UAE accused Iran of what it says was an unprovoked “terrorist attack” and demanded it halt all hostilities. Later, there were reports of a fire erupting at the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone, and the UAE said it intercepted three cruise missiles from Iran while a fourth fell into the sea.

Iran seems to be targeting every oil export route the UAE has. The Strait remains blocked, and now the Fujairah pipeline, which has been carrying out half of the UAE’s output since the war began, is likely compromised.

No strait, no problem…? Our big story of the day dives into Pakistan’s push to open a land-side workaround for Iran-bound cargo — routing shipments through Gwadar and overland corridors to bypass Hormuz.


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ENERGY — UAE exits another oil alliance: The UAE officially withdrew from the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (Oapec), according to a statement. The move follows the Emirates' surprise exit from Opec and Opec+ late last month.

Oapec? The Kuwait-headquartered alliance was founded in 1968 to foster cooperation between Arab oil-producing nations, focusing on technical research, joint ventures, and regional energy policy. The organization does not play a role in setting global oil prices and production quotas. The UAE was not a founding member.


TRADE — Gas fixes outweigh Hormuz risk: Global gas supplies could offset roughly twice the volumes lost to the Strait of Hormuz closure by tackling gas flaring and leaks. Around 110 bcm of LNG — some 20% of global LNG flows — passed through Hormuz last year. At the same time, the International Energy Agency estimates that cutting methane emissions could unlock about 100 bcm annually, with another 100 bcm from eliminating non-emergency flaring.

Stop losing gas before chasing more: Nearly 15 bcm could be made available quickly enough to offer some relief to gas markets if producers and importing countries move to abatement measures, the energy watchdog says. Those measures include plugging pipeline leaks, replacing defective equipment, and capturing gas rather than flaring it.

Our take: LNG stranded by the conflict cannot be rerouted at scale, because exports from Qatar and the UAE have no meaningful alternative route to global markets.

Market watch

Oil prices fell over 1% this morning after a 6% gain as the US moves in Hormuz signaled supply relief, Reuters reports. Brent crude futures declined USD 1.22 to trade at USD 113.22 / bbl by 03.23 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) slipped USD 2.02 to USD 104.40 / bbl.


The Baltic Index maintains its rising trajectory: The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk index — which tracks rates for the capesize, panamax, and supramax vessel segments — was up 0.6% to 2,686 points on Tuesday, buoyed by gains in the bigger vessel segments. The capesize rose 1% to o 2,670 points, while the panamax index increased 0.7% to 1,992. The smaller supramax slipped 0.6% to 1,525 points.

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The Big Story Today

Pakistan opens a back road to Iran

A land-side workaround to Hormuz? Pakistan is positioning its ports as a land-side workaround for Iran-bound cargo as Hormuz constraints bite. The government issued a new order mapping out six transit corridors linking Karachi, Port Qasim, and Gwadar to Iran’s Gabd and Taftan border crossings, allowing third-country goods to move into Iran via Pakistan without import duties.

The route isn’t new — but it’s now operational: Islamabad has activated a 2008 Pakistan-Iran road transport framework covering passengers and goods — giving it a formal basis to move transit cargo across Pakistani territory to Iran.

Gwadar is emerging as the corridor’s release valve — where the Gabd border crossing sits two to three hours away, versus the 16-18 hours from Karachi, a gap that could potentially cut transport costs by 45-55%.

The cleaner model may be sea-to-road rather than pure trucking: Pakistani port officials are weighing the use of feeder vessels to move containers from Karachi to Gwadar — roughly 100 km from the Iranian border — instead of dispatching thousands of trucks along the longer overland route. The shift could save around USD 180k in transport costs.

Useful, but not a Hormuz replacement: “Pakistan’s six new corridors to Iran are a pressure valve, not a substitute for Hormuz. Pakistan has notified the six land routes to move Iran-bound cargo off its congested ports. They help clear a backlog, but are not designed to replace seaborne trade through Hormuz,” Wolfgang Lehmacher, former head of supply chain and transport industries at the World Economic Forum, tells EnterpriseAM.

An enable workaround? “Recent reporting framing this as Iran ‘replacing UAE ports’ probably overstates the shift — I’d say that this looks more like a politically enabled workaround under current constraints than a structural rerouting of established Gulf transhipment flows,” Antonella Teodoro, senior transport consultant at MDS Transmodel, tells EnterpriseAM.

Gwadar can help, but the ceiling is low: “Gwadar has just shown it can handle around 11k containers in a month — more than its entire 2025 total. That capacity is material for Iran-bound relief flows, but remains small compared with established Gulf hubs,” Lehmacher says.

Sanctions still cap the upside: Financial restrictions and limited trade channels keep flows constrained, even as transit opens. Essential goods can move under humanitarian exemptions, but currency access remains the chokepoint.

The constraint is still inland: “The Gwadar-Gabd corridor may offer a geographically efficient routing, but sanctions exposure and inland logistics constraints are likely to keep it niche rather than transformational at least in the near term,” Teodoro adds.

Why it matters: The new route gives Iran a land-based alternative as maritime routes remain constrained. With more than 3k Iran-bound containers stranded in Karachi since the blockade began, the success of this corridor hinges on how efficiently Pakistani customs can process new flows.

The risks are built in

No corridor without cover: Iran-bound cargo must be backed by an encashable bank guarantee equivalent to Pakistan’s applicable import levies — giving Islamabad a financial safeguard if goods are diverted into the local market instead of exiting into Iran.

No US sign-off? Islamabad appears to have opened the corridor without consulting the US — raising political risks as much as operational ones. By creating a land-side route for Iran amidst a US-backed maritime squeeze, Pakistan risks scrutiny if the corridor is seen as diluting pressure — including potential fallout for its banking sector’s access to correspondent networks.

Islamabad wants the corridor upside — but carefully: “Pakistan is taking a calculated risk: leveraging its position as a land corridor to ease Iran-bound trade while trying to stay within the bounds of its relationships with the US and the International Monetary Fund,” Lehmacher argues.

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Trade

Egypt’s summer supplies shored up

Egypt’s Oil Ministry is moving to ensure energy security for heavy manufacturers this summer, allocating five LNG cargoes per month to the industrial sector starting in June — up from just one previously, Al Arabiya reports, citing an unnamed government official.

The details: The shipments — which average 750k cbm and are valued at USD 300-350 mn — will insulate the export-critical sector from power cuts with 16 bcf of gas pumped monthly into the national grid. Over 65% of the supply is earmarked for fertilizer, petrochemical, and steel factories.

The Egyptian government is shifting the bill to the private sector. With domestic gas production dropping 50% from its 2021 peak, the country is relying on a 40-cargo LNG procurement plan, mostly from US suppliers, to keep the lights on and factories running this summer. The move will push our natural gas import bill up 26% to USD 10.7 bn in FY 2026/27. To offset the costs, the government hiked natural gas prices yesterday for energy-intensive sectors by USD 2 per mn British thermal units (Btu).

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Also on Our Radar

EgyptAir’s first 737 Max lands in Cairo

EgyptAir’s first 737 Max lands in Cairo

EgyptAir received its first Boeing 737-8 Max, kicking off an 18-aircraft strategic lease agreement with SMBC Aviation Capital, according to a statement from the flag carrier. EgyptAir says the new jets will cut fuel use and emissions by 20% compared to their predecessors and will serve short- and medium-haul routes, including Paris, Brussels, Istanbul, and Vienna.

It looks like the airline is also about to get a new Airbus A350-900, which AeroSignals said yesterday afternoon was on its way from Toulouse-Blagnac to Cairo.

The delivery is part of EgyptAir’s broader fleet modernization push: The carrier said in February it would add 12 aircraft this year, part of a wider push to integrate 34 new Airbus A350-900 and Boeing 737-8 Max jets into its fleet by 2031.

New shipping services hit Saudi ports

Jeddah Islamic Port and King Abdullah Port are now connected to major European hubs like Gdańsk and Antwerp, thanks to the addition of MSC’s shipping service Middle East Express, the Saudi Ports Authority (Mawani) stated. The service, which has a 16k-TEU handling capacity, also integrates a land transport link from King Abdullah Port to King Abdulaziz Port.

Jeddah Islamic Port also saw the addition of a new service by CMA CGM, Ocean Rise, which will connect the port to nine ports across Western Europe and Far East Asia. The service offers a capacity of around 3k TEUs.

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Logistics in the News

Spirit runs out of runway

War wasn’t the only source of turbulence for Spirit Airlines: Spirit Airlines — a trailblazer in the US budget travel scene — is liquidating after rescue talks fell apart, ending a 34-year run, according to the carrier’s statement (pdf). The airline abruptly shut down on Saturday, canceled all flights, closed customer service, and told passengers to stay away from airports, with refunds being issued automatically.

The airline was already broken

Spirit Airlines had already filed for bankruptcy twice in less than a year. It emerged from restructuring in March 2025, only to warn by August that weak leisure demand, excess domestic capacity, and dwindling liquidity had raised “substantial doubt” about its ability to continue operating.

This was not a one-shock collapse: “The demise of Spirit Airlines is better understood as the culmination of structural pressures rather than the result of a single external shock. The spike in fuel prices linked to tensions in the Middle East may have accelerated the timeline, but the airline was already operating with very limited margin for error,” Richard Maslen, head of analysis at CAPA - Centre for Aviation, tells EnterpriseAM.

The model didn’t fail in theory — it ran out of runway in the US market. “Its balance sheet was stretched, its growth options constrained, and its competitive position weakened following the collapse of its planned tie-up with JetBlue Airways. In that sense, the model itself did not fail — rather, it struggled to adapt to the specific cost, regulatory, and competitive dynamics of the US market,” Maslen adds.

Then the exit routes closed: A US government move to block the USD 3.8 bn JetBlue-Spirit merger in 2024 eliminated a key lifeline, arguing the agreement would hurt competition and raise fares. Spirit’s attempt to pivot upmarket — with bundled and more premium offerings — left it chasing customers already captured by larger carriers, without the scale or advantages to compete.

The aircraft stopped doing the work

Spirit’s low-cost machine was already losing flight hours: The carrier’s fleet utilization fell to an average of 9.9 hours a day in 2024, down from 11.1 hours in 2023 — with the drop mainly tied to Pratt & Whitney GTF engine issues.

The disruption forced the airline to shrink around the problem: By the end of 2024, Spirit operated 213 Airbus single-aisle aircraft, including 91 Airbus A320neo jets powered by the affected PW1100G-JM engines. Management acknowledged that airlines with more diversified fleets were better positioned to absorb those shocks. The fallout led Spirit to scale back, suspend, or exit service in multiple cities while idling roughly 170 pilots in September 2024 and another 300 in January 2025 to align with reduced capacity.

Compensation offered some relief — but not a solution: Spirit received USD 150.6 mn from Pratt & Whitney in 2024 for aircraft-on-ground days under an agreement covering unserviceable jets through year-end. But with inspections and engine removals expected to continue into at least 2026, the airline was left operating with a smaller, constrained fleet just as it attempted to emerge from Chapter 11 and restore profitability.

The fare model had no room for a fuel shock

The real bill came after the fare: Spirit built its economics on low, unbundled base fares, high fleet utilization, and paid extras — bags, seats, and other passenger-related fees — that turned the ticket into only the entry price.

That model works — until the planes slow down: The low-cost model customers are more price-sensitive, which makes it harder to push higher fuel and operating costs into fares without weakening demand. “This business model creates very small margins and requires stringent cost control to avoid the small [income] margin changing into a loss,” aviation analyst Hans Jørgen Elnaes tells EnterpriseAM.

So was Spirit the first aviation casualty of the Iran war? “Yes, it is, but keeping in mind Spirit’s longtime financial stress was also a major driver for it going out of business,” Elnaes says.

The conflict acted as an accelerant: Jet fuel prices surged sharply after the conflict began, forcing airlines to raise fares, cut capacity, and rethink marginal flying.

“In my view, the major reason behind Spirit Airlines being grounded or going bankrupt is the high jet fuel spot price,” Elnaes argues. “The extra fuel cost hit so hard on the cashflow reserves that without an imminent capital injection, Spirit was doomed. Keeping in mind, Spirit Airlines was not in any fuel hedge position, as is the market practice by US airlines.”

The stress test is not over: “High jet fuel prices over time are historically a major reason for airline bankruptcies. Fortunately, most airlines today are more financially robust than before the pandemic, but in my view, Spirit Airlines will not be the last airline to go out of business during 2026 due to the high jet fuel spot price,” Elnaes notes.

Why didn't Washington save it?

The rescue fell apart because the capital stack never aligned: The proposed USD 500 mn government lifeline would have given Washington a senior claim and warrants for a major stake in Spirit, but that structure needed creditor support. Some bondholders pushed back, unwilling to be pushed down the recovery ladder by a government-backed senior position, while a creditor-led counterproposal failed to secure approval.

Not a systemwide shock: “Unlike previous crises, this was not a systemic shock affecting the entire industry, but a company-specific deterioration. Policymakers likely judged that the market could absorb the capacity, limiting long-term disruption,” Maslen says.

The market had delivered its verdict: “If there was support for Spirit in the financial markets, capital would have been raised to save the airline, but not one cent surfaced from the financial market [or] competing airlines. A clear signal from the financial market that Spirit did not have a bright future as a company to invest in,” Elnaes argues.

Washington’s final response shifted from rescue to damage control: The US Department of Transportation coordinated with other airlines to rebook stranded passengers, cap or lower fares for affected customers, protect route access where possible, and connect Spirit workers with job windows.


MAY

12-14 May (Tuesday-Thursday): Aviation Energy Forum (AEF), Paris, France.

19-21 May (Tuesday-Thursday): Ground Handling Conference (IGHC), Cairo, Egypt.

19-21 May (Tuesday-Thursday): Terminal Operations Conference & Exhibition, Hamburg, Germany.

JUNE

2-4 June (Tuesday-Thursday): ProPak Mena, Cairo, Egypt.

4-5 June (Thursday-Friday): Supply Chain and Logistics Summit, Amsterdam, Netherlands.

6-8 June (Saturday-Monday): IATA World Air Transport Summit, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

10-11 June (Wednesday-Thursday): Black Sea Ports and Logistics, Istanbul, Turkey.

21-24 June (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Smart Logistics, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

22-23 June (Monday-Tuesday): Decarbonizing Shipping Forum, Rotterdam, Netherlands.

AUGUST

30 August-1 September (Sunday-Tuesday): Air Cargo Middle East, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

30 August-1 September (Sunday-Tuesday): Saudi Warehouse and Logistics Expo, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

SEPTEMBER

16-17 September (Wednesday-Thursday): Saudi Maritime & Logistics Congress, Dammam, Saudi Arabia.

22-24 September (Tuesday-Thursday): Seamless Middle East, Dubai, UAE.

28-30 September (Monday-Wednesday): Transport Logistics Middle East, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

OCTOBER

12-14 October (Monday-Wednesday): The Airport Show, Dubai, UAE.

21-22 October (Wednesday-Thursday): Global Ports Forum, Singapore.

26-29 (Monday-Thursday): Air Cargo Forum, Miami, US.

27-29 October (Tuesday-Thursday): Routes World, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

NOVEMBER

2-5 November (Monday-Thursday): ADIPEC Maritime and Logistics Exhibition and Conference, Abu Dhabi, UAE.

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