A massive Adnoc natgas push is coming to the US

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

TODAY: Adnoc doubles down on US natgas push

Good morning, friends. We have a balanced issue for you this morning — led by Adnoc’s plan to invest tens of bns of USD in the US to build its natural gas business. But first, you didn’t think the UAE’s decision to leave Opec was going to leave energy markets unscathed?

Early reactions split sharply between optimism and caution: US President Donald Trump believes the move will lower energy prices, Bloomberg reports. “It’s a good thing for getting the price of gas down, getting oil down, getting everything down,” Trump said. Russia’s Finance Minister made a similar argument, saying that the exit will prompt the oil cartel to boost production, which will bring down energy prices in the future.

Not everyone is convinced: Goldman Sachs predicts the exit will trigger greater upside risk to oil supply in the medium term, given that UAE crude production is set to reach 3.8 mn bbl / d by October 2026.

Markets, at least for now, appear to be siding with the more cautious camp. The global benchmark surpassed the USD 120 per barrel mark in the early hours of the morning, briefly hovering at around USD 122 — its highest level since 2022 — before easing. This followed reports of a prolonged US naval blockade of Iran.

Watch this space

PIPELINES — Morocco is lining up funding for the USD 25 bn Nigeria-Morocco gas pipeline, with the country’s National Office of Hydrocarbons and Mines gearing up for its first financing push since transitioning into a joint-stock company in February, Bloomberg reports. The structural shift grants the agency greater flexibility to structure partnerships and tap diverse funding pools. Details on the size, timing, and format of the planned raise are yet to be disclosed.

BACKGROUND- An intergovernmental agreement on the project — named the African Atlantic Gas Pipeline — is set to be signed this year. The 6.9k-km pipeline is designed as a phased, coast-hugging system with a capacity to pump 30 bcm annually. It will link 13 countries before reaching Morocco, where it integrates with the Maghreb-Europe Gas pipeline to facilitate exports directly into the EU via Spain.

Gas in the Mediterranean could be the next big thing — with competition for European demand heating up with countries like Algeria, which has a similar model, Egypt with its LNG processing model, and Libya with its “recovery” model.

ENERGY — Aramco will keep suspending LPG shipments from its Juaymah export facility through May as the site has yet to recover from the structural damage sustained in late February, Bloomberg reports, citing people it says are familiar with the matter. Repairs have reportedly been delayed, preventing a restart in exports even if regional shipping routes improve.

Why this matters: Juaymah handles about 3.5% of global waterborne LPG exports — making the outage a meaningful disruption in a niche but important fuel market. The supply squeeze has pushed LPG prices higher and forced buyers — particularly in Asia and India, where LPG is widely used for cooking — to seek alternatives.

TRADE — Starting tomorrow, exporters in Egypt and 52 other African nations will get zero-tariff access to the world’s second most populous country, which Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Lin Jian told reporters will encourage China-Africa trade and investment cooperation.

China is already one of Egypt’s largest trading partners. Chinese exports to Egypt hit nearly USD 17 bn in 2024, while Egyptian exports to China barely crossed the USD 1 bn mark. Now every African nation is getting the same treatment under this expanded program. Since late 2024, China has included any nation across the world classified by the UN as a least developed country under its zero-tariff regime, in addition to a set of extensive reciprocal trade agreements across Asia, Australasia, and Latin America that ensure zero-tariff access for most goods.

AVIATION — Kuwait Petroleum International wants to expand cooperation with Emirates National Oil Company (Enoc) to cover Sharjah International Airport through its subsidiary Q8 Aviation, Arab Times reports. The move builds on an existing foothold in Dubai, where Q8 Aviation already supplies fuel through its Enoc partnership.

BACKGROUND- Q8 Aviation partnered with Enoc for its entry into the UAE’s fuel sector, which saw challenges from already entrenched suppliers. The partnership opened the door for operations at Dubai International Airport with Royal Brunei Airlines and Al Maktoum International Airport with Air Baltic and Hainan Airlines, focusing on international flights.

Securing jet fuel is becoming a major concern for international airlines as of late. Global disruptions and rising demand drove jet fuel prices up 103% in March, a spike that consumers are expected to feel first through higher ticket costs.

Market watch

Oil prices climbed 7% this morning on reports of possible US military action against Iran — raising fears of further Middle East supply disruptions, Reuters reports. Brent crude futures for June rose USD 6.81 to trade at USD 124.84 / bbl by 05.27 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gained USD 2.76 to USD 109.64 / bbl.

The Baltic Index snaps losing streak: The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk index — which tracks rates for the capesize, panamax, and supramax vessel segments — fell 0.3% to 2,670 points on Wednesday. The capesize index declined 0.5% to 4,238 points, while the panamax index climbed 0.7% to 1,979. The smaller supramax slipped 0.5% to 1,534 points.

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PSA

MSC raises Far East–to–Europe and North Africa FAK rates: MSC will hike Freight All Kinds rates effective 15-31 May for cargo moving from all Far East ports to North Europe, the Mediterranean, North Africa, and the Black Sea. Forty-foot container rates are set at USD 4.5k–4.7k across Europe and the Black Sea, while North Africa remains the priciest leg, with rates reaching USD 6.9k (Algeria), USD 6.5k (Tunisia), USD 6.2k (Libya), and USD 5.5k (Casablanca).

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Adnoc goes long on US gas

Adnoc is lining up tens of bns of USD for its US gas push, with the state-backed giant building out a natural gas business in the US through its overseas investment arm XRG as regional disruptions reshape energy flows and pricing dynamics.

The strategy is to go vertical, with 29 agreements under review to stitch together a full-stack gas business, XRG’s Chief investment officer Nameer Siddiqui told the Financial Times.

In effect, it's a build-your-own LNG machine: The plan spans production, pipelines, processing, liquefaction, and potentially regasification and pipeline infrastructure to end-users in destination markets. The company is weighing controlled transactions, drilling JVs, and minority stakes, Siddiqui said.

The timing is doing some of the heavy lifting: Banks are stepping back from the US LNG market over fears of global oversupply, opening a lane for deep-pocketed Middle Eastern players willing to deploy capital, Director of Global Gas at Rapidan Energy Group Alex Munton told the salmon-colored paper.

Why this matters: US assets offer market access and a hedge against regional instability at a moment when Adnoc is building optionality into its portfolio. “The US is a market where we want to be bold,” Siddiqui noted, adding that “this is unwavering, although obviously we will only do that under the right return expectations.”

That portfolio is already planting flags in the US: XRG took an 11.7% stake in the first phase of NextDecade’s USD 18 bn Rio Grande LNG export facility in Texas back last year — marking its first direct investment in US gas infrastructure. The company also explored a USD 9 bn acquisition of US assets, including a 35% stake in ExxonMobil’s proposed low-carbon hydrogen facility, which is now on hold. Furthermore, it plans to establish a trading desk in the US and increase its US investments to USD 440 bn over the next decade.

On a short-term fix

Adnoc is offering buyers a workaround: Adnoc has told term customers they can pick up May cargoes — including Das and Upper Zakum — via alternative delivery points on a case-by-case basis. That includes ship-to-ship transfers off Fujairah and potentially Sohar.

The details matter: This means shipments are effectively pre-positioned beyond the chokepoint, though it’s unclear when or how those cargoes crossed the strait as transit remains constrained — despite an LNG vessel managing to sneak out this week. The UAE’s pipeline to Fujairah is mainly tied up moving Murban, leaving limited room for other grades.

The risk is reflected in pricing: Adnoc has set a flat May official selling price of USD 110 per barrel across Murban, Upper Zakum, and Das, up from USD 69 in April. The pricing gives buyers a steep premium for the grades that bake in disruption, risk, and rerouting costs as shipowners are still cautious around Fujairah, with buyers facing a mix of security and pricing premiums.

Aramex refinances

Aramex brings its debt back home: Logistics firm Aramex refinanced AED 815 mn of debt, rolling its USD and GBP loans into a single UAE-domiciled facility backed by local and international banks. The facility is structured as sustainability-linked, integrating accountability directly into the company’s financing approach.

A UAE-domiciled facility means the debt now sits under UAE law — with a local borrowing entity and a single regulatory and repayment structure — replacing a mix of offshore USD and GBP loans and reducing both complexity and multi-jurisdiction exposure. By pulling offshore obligations into a single domestic facility, the logistics provider aligns its capital structure more closely with its operational core — a move that acting CFO Lubna Shebli framed as both a cost optimization and a balance sheet upgrade.

BACKGROUND- Aramex is refinancing from a position of stability, after it ended last year with a debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 3.2x — a level where financing matters.

Chinese and Turkish bonanza in Egypt

Chinese and Turkish manufacturers continue to flock to Egypt despite regional fallout from the war in the Gulf and Lebanon.

Turkish manufacturers continue to cement their place in Egypt’s textile and packaging export strategy. New commitments and a long-term strategy for USD 800 mn in investments were announced this week, with the Suez Canal Economic Zone (SCZone) positioning the Qantara West Industrial Zone as a specialized Turkish enclave.

#1- Turkish industrial heavyweight Eroglu Holding plans to break ground on a landmark USD 400 mn cardboard project next year, according to a ministry statement. The group is planning a long-term investment strategy for expansion and aims to invest over USD 800 mn in Egypt as an export-oriented partner.

#2- A Turkish consortium comprising Yiltem Apparel and Dinamik Raus Tekstil will build a new USD 8 mn garment factory, according to a separate statement. The 21k-sqm facility will focus on high-tech garment production and specialized fabric dyeing, including organic and natural treatments. Some 90% of the factory’s 400k-piece annual capacity is earmarked for export to European markets.

Why this matters: Turkish manufacturing interest in Egypt is increasingly an important part of the Madbouly government’s plan to ramp up annual exports to USD 145 bn by 2030. Turkish FDI in Egypt — which Matta Beshay, a member of the Egyptian-Turkish Business Council, previously told EnterpriseAM had surpassed USD 3 bn across 1.7k companies — has been focused on export-oriented textile projects. This comes as Turkish investors look to lower production costs and as Egypt’s trade agreements provide preferential access to European, US, Arab, and African markets.

The China trade drive continues

A Chinese business delegation is proposing to build out a multi-bn-USD pipeline of projects in the SCZone, spanning Sokhna to the New Capital, according to a cabinet statement. The proposals include a smart container terminal, an FMCG and chemicals industrial zone, and an integrated trade city.

#1- Smart terminal: Jiangsu Province Ports Group and Shanghai Huanshi Logistics are mulling a USD 400 mn smart container terminal at Sokhna Port with a 2 mn TEU annual capacity.

#2- An industrial zone: Nanjing Hurricane Trading is pitching a 100k sqm FMCG and chemicals industrial zone, targeting 70% exports to European and African markets, alongside a bonded warehouse for re-exporting used Chinese machinery to Africa.

#3- Egypt’s Yiwu market: An unnamed player is proposing a USD 2 bn, 3 mn sqm integrated trade city, modeled after China’s Yiwu market and complete with a hotel, a school, and a hospital. The “Mini-Yiwu” development could serve as a permanent regional trade outpost, giving buyers from Africa, the Middle East, and Europe a centralized hub to source Chinese goods directly from Egyptian soil.

Why it matters: With 160+ Chinese firms already operating locally, the latest proposals to embed education, healthcare, and hospitality into trade hubs signal Beijing’s ambition to anchor itself across the entire supply chain. The expansion effectively cements Egypt as a permanent Belt and Road outpost between the Red Sea and the Mediterranean, supporting the Madbouly government’s USD 145 bn export target.

We went deep into the China-Egypt story last fall with HSBC Egypt CEO Todd Wilcox and HSBC China Deputy CEO Ed Weeks.

Super-sized Talabat center opens in Hassan Allam’s Yanmu

Talabat doubles down on Egypt

Talabat inaugurated the Middle East’s largest express commerce distribution center in Hassan Allam Utilities’ Yanmu East Logistics Park, according to an Egyptian cabinet statement. The 27k-sqm facility has capacity for up to 1 mn items per day. It supports Talabat Mart’s network across 12 cities — expandable to 17 — and includes 75k storage locations.

Tech’s doing the heavy lifting: The operation runs on real-time systems integrating inventory, retail, and supply chains, with in-house AI models forecasting demand, optimizing stock, and automating processes to minimize losses.

Egypt is doing more than hosting warehouses here: The local team powers 74% of Talabat’s shared services across eight markets and builds core platform features. Yanmu Logistics Park is a venture between Hassan Allam Logistics (backed by our friends at Hassan Allam Utilities as well as AP Moller Capital) and Agility. Talabat announced the center last year.

DAE posts solid 1Q earnings

Dubai Aerospace Enterprise (DAE) saw its net income rise 19.1% y-o-y to USD 102.2 mn in 1Q 2026, according to its latest financial release (pdf). The firm’s revenue rose 15% y-o-y to USD 455.5 mn over the quarter, driven by additional lease income from newly acquired aircraft, which was partially offset by a decline in engineering maintenance service revenue.

On the operations front: The company bought nine owned aircraft and sold 15 aircraft during the quarter and signed 65 lease agreements, extensions, and amendments. Its owned, managed, and committed fleet stood at 663 aircraft at the end of March.

A fertilizer shock is building in the Gulf

Fertilizer bottlenecks are turning into a supply shock: More than half of the Middle East’s urea output may have been lost since the Iran conflict began, as the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz stalls shipments and leaves product stranded in the Gulf, Bloomberg reports, citing CRU Group estimates of 55-60% halted output.

Why it matters well beyond the Gulf: Roughly 45% of the global urea trade comes from producers with manufacturing sites on the Gulf, supplying key markets including India, Europe, and Brazil. Bloomberg data also showed that 44 fertilizer vessels remain stuck in the Gulf, with almost half carrying urea.

Fertilizer markets are already repricing the risk — raising the prospect of higher crop input costs and, eventually, food prices. That means prolonged disruption can start weighing on yields through the wider agricultural input chain — not just through urea prices.

Energy shocks have amplified the pressure since natgas is the main input for nitrogen fertilizers. “Natural gas’ key role as a fertilizer input could hit agricultural producers, impacting food prices,” MENA Director at Horizon Engage Andrew G. Farrand previously told EnterpriseAM.

A major GCC fertilizer producer says it’s been navigating the disruption: Fertiglobe CEO Ahmed El Hoshy told The National the company had made “pretty abnormal movements of vessels” and was rerouting cargo from Algeria and Nigeria to Australia while using higher fertilizer prices to offset added logistics costs. “We’re trying our best to move the product out,” he said.

REMEMBER- Markets have already reacted: Prices for granular urea jumped by USD 60 per ton after the effective closure of the strait. In the US Gulf, spot for urea rose USD 60-80 from last week, with traders warning that increases could follow if disruptions persist.

The longer the disruption lasts, the harder the reset may be. CRU warned that producers could face further shutdowns if storage fills up, adding that fertilizer plant restarts “are not a switch,” suggesting that supply strains may outlast any eventual reopening of Hormuz.

Calendar

MAY

12-14 May (Tuesday-Thursday): Aviation Energy Forum (AEF), Paris, France.

19-21 May (Tuesday-Thursday): Ground Handling Conference (IGHC), Cairo, Egypt.

19-21 May (Tuesday-Thursday): Terminal Operations Conference & Exhibition, Hamburg, Germany.

JUNE

2-4 June (Tuesday-Thursday): ProPak Mena, Cairo, Egypt.

4-5 June (Thursday-Friday): Supply Chain and Logistics Summit, Amsterdam, Netherlands.

6-8 June (Saturday-Monday): IATA World Air Transport Summit, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

10-11 June (Wednesday-Thursday): Black Sea Ports and Logistics, Istanbul, Turkey.

21-24 June (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Smart Logistics, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

22-23 June (Monday-Tuesday): Decarbonizing Shipping Forum, Rotterdam, Netherlands.

AUGUST

30 August-1 September (Sunday-Tuesday): Air Cargo Middle East, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

30 August-1 September (Sunday-Tuesday): Saudi Warehouse and Logistics Expo, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

SEPTEMBER

16-17 September (Wednesday-Thursday): Saudi Maritime & Logistics Congress, Dammam, Saudi Arabia.

22-24 September (Tuesday-Thursday): Seamless Middle East, Dubai, UAE.

28-30 September (Monday-Wednesday): Transport Logistics Middle East, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

OCTOBER

12-14 October (Monday-Wednesday): The Airport Show, Dubai, UAE.

21-22 October (Wednesday-Thursday): Global Ports Forum, Singapore.

26-29 (Monday-Thursday): Air Cargo Forum, Miami, US.

27-29 October (Tuesday-Thursday): Routes World, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

NOVEMBER

2-5 November (Monday-Thursday): ADIPEC Maritime and Logistics Exhibition and Conference, Abu Dhabi, UAE.

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TODAY: Adnoc doubles down on US natgas push