A Saudi-backed ground push to reopen Bab Al Mandab could start within weeks

Saudi Arabia is preparing an offensive to take Bab Al Mandab back from the Houthis and get ships moving through the Red Sea's southern gate again. Yemeni troops would do the fighting under Saudi air cover, with a start date anywhere from next week to after the US midterms in early November, regional and Western officials told Reuters.

Why it matters: The Houthis pushed down the coast last month and took Bab Al Mandab, the southern entrance to the Red Sea and the route to the Suez Canal. Holding the strait gives the group leverage in any future talks, and Riyadh has decided it can't negotiate a new peace while they keep it, Western diplomats and a Gulf official said.

Expect a limited operation focused on the coast, a former US ambassador to the Kingdom says. Michael Ratney told Reuters he expects something far smaller than the Saudi-led campaign that set out to rout the Houthis a decade ago. Riyadh wants the group beaten, he said, but above all, it needs to recover the coastline around Bab Al Mandab and reopen it to shipping.

REMEMBER- Aramco has been leaning on Egypt to avoid Bab Al Mandab. Since the Houthi threats began in July, Aramco has offered extra spot cargoes from Sidi Kerir, shipping crude north from Yanbu to Ain Sokhna and across Egypt through Sumed. Saudi crude loaded at Sidi Kerir more than doubled to nearly 2.3 mn bbl / d in August, though Sumed can carry only about half of the 5 mn bbl / d of the East-West Pipeline delivered to the Red Sea for export.

And more crude is now reaching the Red Sea than that route can carry: Aramco is running the East-West Pipeline above 80% capacity, leaving about 4.5 mn bbl / d to export from the Red Sea, Bloomberg reports. Sumed tops out at 2.5 mn bbl / d.

The Houthis are still hitting Saudi energy and power sites: Smoke rose near an Aramco facility in Riyadh yesterday after it was hit in a Houthi missile and drone attack, Reuters reports. The Yemeni Coalition also said a Houthi strike on the Taibah distribution station in Madinah — which feeds the Prophet’s Mosque — took one power transformer offline without affecting the wider grid. The Houthis have denied this.

What’s next? The Makkah Defense Pact of Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan will hold an emergency meeting in Riyadh this week to weigh an Iranian proposal to engage the Houthis politically, Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar said. Iran has distanced itself from the Houthis and Iraqi militias, Dar said, adding that both Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi want the matter settled.