Etihad Airways is expanding its fleet and routes while the rest of Gulf aviation pulls back

Etihad is positioning for a rebound in Gulf aviation — and expanding accordingly. Abu Dhabi flag carrier Etihad Airways is flying 15% more than last year despite geopolitical disruption and rising costs, Chief Revenue and Commercial Officer Arik De told EnterpriseAM on the sidelines of Arabian Travel Market. The airline is now operating more summer capacity than the 10% y-o-y growth it had flagged in June, with aircraft load factors sitting at about 90%, according to De.

IN CONTEXT- It has been an unforgiving year for Gulf aviation. The Iran war forced airlines across the region to reroute, spiking fuel costs and grounding flights outright. The International Air Transport Association expects Middle Eastern carriers to post a combined loss this year, the only region forecast to be unprofitable in 2026. Emirates and Qatar Airways both pulled back summer capacity in response.

But does restoring flights mean the Gulf aviation machine is fully back to normal? Longer routings and slower aircraft turnarounds were still eating into aircraft productivity even as carriers rebuilt their schedules. That matters for hub carriers like Etihad, where lower frequencies or poorly timed arrivals can weaken entire connection banks even when headline seat capacity has recovered.

Etihad has kept its foot down: The Abu Dhabi carrier added more than 20 aircraft to its fleet this year, pushed ahead with new routes across Europe, Africa, and China, and is now targeting break-even for the full year — a goal first flagged by CEO Antonoaldo Neves earlier this year in an interview with CNBC. It also held rates this year, Neves told The National, with around 320 flights operating a day — a number it plans to increase by 25% by the end of next year to about 400 flights.

There is also some space opening around it: Capacity reductions elsewhere have created windows for Etihad to fill parts of the gap, Garth Lund, aviation consultant tells EnterpriseAM, pointing to smaller schedules from Emirates and Qatar Airways, Wizz Air Abu Dhabi’s exit, and delays among overseas carriers in restoring Gulf services. Etihad’s ability to move quickly is also helping it capitalize on those openings, he adds, with the airline continuing to announce new routes and capacity additions at a rapid pace.

And the growth story isn’t slowing: The carrier expects to take delivery of 15 new aircraft by December as part of its expansion plans, Neves told Asharq Business. It invests around USD 3.5 bn annually into its fleet and aims to break even in 2026, Neves said.

The carrier is already planning beyond the current rebound: In July, Etihad was reportedly in preliminary talks with Boeing and Airbus to secure aircraft delivery positions as early as 2029 and 2030. That follows a border effort to build around manufacturer bottlenecks — by tapping the secondary market for aircraft, bringing A380s back into service, weighing bulk purchases and locally stockpiling aircraft parts and rolling out a USD 1 bn retrofit program to keep more of its existing fleet flying.

The balance sheet is buying it room to move: The airline’s performance in recent years has left it with a stronger balance sheet and, De says, “good financial position to weather any short-term challenges.” It posted record earnings last year, with income after tax up 47% y-o-y to AED 2.6 bn and total revenue rising 21% to AED 30.7 bn.

That financial cushion matters when the strategy is long term. Etihad’s financial position gives it the ability to keep investing through near-term volatility rather than pulling back every time conditions deteriorate, Lund argues. That helps explain why the airline has continued adding aircraft and routes even as fuel costs, rerouting and regional disruption have put pressure on airline economics across the Gulf.

The disruption hasn’t changed the calculus: That also means none of its expansion plans have changed. “We're not shying away from any investment because we see a very strong vision for demand, not only in the UAE but also in the region,” De explains. “As long as we keep our focus and our head down, I think we'll achieve our goals faster... we tweak things around the edges — when things work better, we double down on it. When things don't work well, we don't have the ego, we just walk away from it,” he adds, referring to the airline’s vision for 2030.