TODAY: Can the Gulf avoid another fertilizer crisis, or is it out of options?

Good morning, nice people. Today’s issue puts the lens on the Gulf fertilizer trade — and specifically, on the buffers that got it through the last scare, which turn out to be pretty much spent. Storage is filling up faster than ships can clear it, Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea workaround is running into fresh pressure, and Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE — unlike Riyadh and Muscat — don’t really have an alternative.

Destination Sahel Issue III drops this week, and we’re diving into how the North Coast is adapting to a changing market.

Developers are recalibrating as buyer behavior shifts, luxury retail is carving out a bigger piece of Sahel’s economy, and the wellness and sports scene has become a summer destination on its own.

In this issue, we get into what’s actually changing on the ground, from how developers are adjusting their pitch to where to shop and how to stay active this season.

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War watch

A small cargo ship identified by Reuters as Egyptian-owned was attacked by Yemen’s Houthi militants in the Bab Al Mandab strait, according to the Yemeni Coast Guard Authority. Six crewmembers were reportedly killed and 11 injured, BBC reports. The ship’s crew comprised Pakistani and Indonesian nationals, the Yemeni authority said. The Houthis — who declared a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia late last month — have not claimed responsibility for the strike.

Taking back control

Syria will take back management of Tartous Port’s fourth commercial quay from Russia under a new MoU reorganizing Russia’s presence along the Syrian coast, state news agency Sana reports. The agreement, reached after 18 months of negotiations, will gradually transfer civilian facilities used by Russia — including the quay and facilities at Hmeimim Airport — to the Syrian civilian administration.

What the quay brings: The 630-meter berth can accommodate three large vessels at the same time, with loads of up to 55k tonnes. Bringing it under Syrian operation could ease pressure on the port’s other berths and reduce vessel waiting times. Its location beside the port’s RoRo terminal and nearby storage facilities also allows it to handle multiple cargo types — useful as demand for building materials and machinery picks up with Syria’s reconstruction efforts.

But control does not equal competitiveness. The quay will need upgrades before the added capacity translates into higher trade volumes or revenues, economists told the news agency. Tartous would first need lower operating costs, clearer investment contracts, and far better inland connectivity to compete. Syria will also need faster customs procedures and functioning trade finance payment and ins. channels.

Market watch

Oil prices increased this morning as Middle East tensions stoked supply fears, Reuters reports. Brent crude futures increased USD 0.72 to USD 89.63 / bbl by 00.53 GMT, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gained USD 0.71 to USD 83.91 / bbl.

The Baltic Index declines further: The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk index — which tracks rates for the capesize, panamax, and supramax vessel segments — was down 1.2% to 3,046 points on Tuesday. The capesize index declined 2% to 5,001 points, while the panamax inched up by 0.3% to 2,312 points. The smaller supramax slightly eased 0.2% to 1,600.

Data point

3.7 mn tons — that’s how many goods and minerals Saudi Arabia’s railway transported in 2Q 2026. The SAR North Train handled 3.3 mn tons, while the East Train moved 396k tons, with 47k TEUs transported across the rail network, Saudi Gazette reports.

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