Good morning, friends. Today’s issue leans tense, with an attack on an Adnoc vessel and a fresh fire at Aramco’s Jazan refinery. Neither is the type of settling news for trading routes, especially with Iran and Oman near an agreement on transit through Hormuz.

UAE authorities condemned an Iranian strike on an Adnoc-affiliated vessel in the Strait of Hormuz — the third such attack in a week, per Adnoc — rejecting any use of the waterway as “a tool of economic coercion or blackmail.” Adnoc itself had condemned “unprovoked attacks” a day earlier, Reuters reports. The strikes follow Adnoc’s reported return to dark-mode transiting through Hormuz, after an empty Adnoc L&S LNG carrier crossed the strait with its AIS switched off.

Jazan hit again: Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis claimed a drone strike on an Aramco refinery in the southwestern Saudi city of Jazan earlier today, with Saudi Arabia’s Energy Ministry confirming a fire at the facilities, Reuters reports. The Houthis said the attack was retaliation for Saudi drone incursions into Yemen’s Hajjah and Saada provinces.

The refinery was already carrying battle damage as Houthi missiles and drones struck it on 27 July, forcing Aramco to shut the plant and tightening its fallback map. Riyadh has leaned on western infrastructure to route energy away from Hormuz, but repeated attacks on Jazan and Yanbu are putting that Red Sea hedge under pressure, and ins’ers are already pulling back from some Saudi touchpoints.

MEANWHILE- Saudi Arabia’s PMI eases in July while holding its fourth straight month of expansion; Aramex, Agility, and Abu Dhabi Aviation deliver strong 2Q earnings; and Adnoc L&S bags 11 vessels to bolster its fleet. Let’s dive in.

Destination Sahel Issue III drops this week, and we’re diving into how the North Coast is adapting to a changing market.

Developers are recalibrating as buyer behavior shifts, luxury retail is carving out a bigger piece of Sahel’s economy, and the wellness and sports scene has become a summer destination on its own.

In this issue, we get into what’s actually changing on the ground, from how developers are adjusting their pitch to where to shop and how to stay active this season.

Coming straight to your inbox on Wednesday, 12 August.

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UAE eyes Japan’s AI infrastructure

The UAE is eyeing Japan’s largest data center. The UAE could invest as much as JPY 1 tn (c. USD 6.3 bn) in a 500 MW AI data center planned for Akita, northern Japan, with Mubadala expected to lead the investment, Bloomberg reports, citing people familiar with the matter. Suppliers and other companies setting up around the site could lift the total project cost to as much as JPY 2 tn, enough to make it Japan’s largest data center.

Why it matters: The move would fit a wider pattern of Gulf capital chasing AI infrastructure in markets positioned as a hedge against US-China tech tension. It also lines up with Japan’s own push, which has folded data centers into its strategic-sector planning and earmarked JPY 32.7 tn through 2035 to pull investment like this outside Tokyo and Osaka. Japanese companies are expected to handle construction and supporting infrastructure.

The bigger play: Akita would extend a UAE data center push that is already moving beyond the UAE. In Vietnam, G42 is leading a USD 1 bn buildout of three data centers. MGX, which raised nearly USD 50 bn in June to accelerate its global investment push, closed a USD 40 bn takeover of Aligned Data Centers alongside Blackrock’s Global Infrastructure Partners.

A temporary passage

A new route in the making? Iran and Oman are finalizing an agreement for a managed shipping corridor through the Strait of Hormuz that would run for two to four months and potentially longer, Bloomberg reports. Iranian officials stressed that the arrangement wouldn’t amount to a full reopening, which would still hinge on a change in US behavior. The joint statement formalizing the route is in its final drafting stage, and the White House hasn’t formally responded.

More of a formalization: Tehran and Muscat were already coordinating advance permissions for selected crossings in April, when Omani-owned tankers carrying Saudi and UAE crude were allowed to transit along routes close to Oman. Access was determined by vessel ownership, cargo, routing, and political alignment, leaving the strait neither fully closed nor commercially open.

Why it matters: Even under a short-term agreement, the strait would remain a managed risk corridor rather than a normal commercial lane. Mns of barrels have kept moving through the regional shuttle trade despite thin visible traffic, and some of that ferrying will likely persist even as owners weigh the risk of sailing back into the Gulf outright, meaning more oil can move without Washington and Tehran resolving the naval blockade or Iran’s nuclear program.

But Tehran is putting a much higher price on a full reopening. Iran says the strait will only reopen once Washington meets a broader set of conditions, including compensating Iran for US attacks, ending threats and aggression against Iran and its regional allies, lifting the naval blockade and sanctions, and freeing Iranian assets, Reuters reports.

UAE oil finds a way

The UAE turns Hormuz risk into market edge: Adnoc sold more than 130 mn barrels of crude across seven tenders since the start of June, equivalent to more than a month of Japanese crude demand, as the UAE moved more oil to global buyers than any other Gulf producer despite the strait’s risk, Bloomberg reports. Vortexa estimates the UAE was the only Middle Eastern producer to restore seaborne exports to pre-war levels over June and July, with most cargoes heading to Asian refiners.

The workaround runs on two tracks: Adnoc charters tankers at elevated rates to shuttle crude through Hormuz with their transponders switched off, then transfers the cargo to another vessel in the Gulf of Oman for the longer haul to buyers — a tactic we previously flagged as a possible bigger trend before. On land, the existing Habshan-Fujairah pipeline carries up to 1.8 mn bbl / d to Fujairah without the crude ever entering the strait.

Why it matters: The UAE’s workaround is helping stabilize supplies into Asia, where refiners can’t easily replace the medium-sour crude the Middle East typically produces. With Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea bypass now facing its own disruption from Houthi attacks, our take is that Asian buyers could become even more reliant on UAE crude.

That’s not all: A second, USD 3 bn pipeline linking Ruwais to Fujairah is due online in 2027, adding 1.5 mn bbl / d and lifting the UAE’s total bypass capacity to 3.3 mn bbl / d.

RSGT eyes Cape Town

RSGT has Cape Town in its sights. Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea Gateway Terminal is looking to secure a 25-year concession to take over and refurbish Duncan Dock Precinct at the Port of Cape Town — with bids due by 20 November, Bloomberg reports. The terminal’s current lease runs out next year, giving Transnet National Ports Authority an opening to bring in a new private operator to expand capacity and upgrade handling containers, dry bulk, and break bulk.

There is plenty to fix first: Cape Town landed at the bottom of the World Bank and S&P Global’s latest port-performance ranking, after persistent equipment shortages, vessel delays, and weather disruptions dragged on throughput. Transnet has been trying to claw back lost productivity with a predictive wind model and new digital cargo-planning tools.

This isn't RSGT's first port wager: The PIF-backed player runs Bangladesh’s Patenga Container Terminal under a 22-year concession, where a USD 170 mn upgrade lifted annual capacity to 600k TEUs. It has also signed an MoU to manage Djibouti’s Tadjourah Port for 20 years.

Market watch

Oil prices rose on Monday as uncertainty persisted over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, Reuters reports. Brent crude futures rose USD 0.84 to USD 84.39 / bbl by 04.24 GMT, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbed USD 0.60 to USD 78.77 / bbl.

Aramco also cut its Arab Light crude price for Asian buyers by USD 0.5 / bbl for September, dropping USD 2 below the regional benchmark and marking the fifth-lowest price set by Saudi Arabia since 2000, Bloomberg reports, citing a price list. Aramco also raised prices for its Arab Medium and Arab Heavy crude grades for Asia, although those barrels are mainly theoretical, as they are typically shipped through Hormuz, while cutting prices across all grades for buyers in the US, Northwest Europe, and the Mediterranean.

The final price paid by refiners may differ from the official price, with additional pipeline and logistics costs for supplies routed through Yanbu or Egypt’s Sidi Kerir. CEO Amin Nasser previously said that Aramco maintained crude exports at around 5 mn bbl / d, about 70% of normal levels.

The Baltic Index edges higher: The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk index — which tracks rates for the capesize, panamax, and supramax vessel segments — fell 0.2% to 3,057 points on Thursday. The capesize index dropped 6.6% to 5,052 points, while the panamax rose by 1.7% to 2,275 points. The smaller supramax eased 0.4% to 1,608 points.

The Drewry World Container Index rebounded 1% to USD 4,297 per 40-ft container last week, according to the latest index readings. Transpacific rates led the gain — Shanghai-Los Angeles rose 3% and Shanghai-New York 4% — while Asia-Europe lanes stayed weak, with Shanghai-Rotterdam unchanged and Shanghai-Genoa down 2%. Rates remain volatile as Middle East tensions, US tariffs, and Asian port congestion push carriers toward emergency fuel surcharges and blank sailings, with little relief in sight while the geopolitical and trade backdrop stays unsettled.

Data point

945 vessels — that’s how many ships called at Syria’s Latakia and Tartous ports in 1H 2026, handling nearly 8 mn tons of cargo, Syrian state news agency Sana reports. Tartous accounted for 551 vessel calls and almost 5 mn tons of cargo, while Latakia received 394 vessels and handled 2.9 mn tons.

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