Good morning, wonderful people. It's one of those good news-bad news mornings, so let's take the good news first while it lasts. The UAE is continuing building its way out of Hormuz's shadow — DP World has struck an agreement with the Fujairah Ports Authority to build two new deepwater terminals on the UAE's east coast — its clearest bet yet that the Gulf of Oman, not the strait, is where trade keeps moving.

Now, the less good news:The Houthis say they struck two Saudi oil tankers, the Encelia and the Layla, saying the vessels violated the embargo they declared on the Kingdom this week. SPA confirmed the Encelia was left ablaze at the bow after an assault in the Red Sea, with all crew safe. QatarEnergy is reportedly getting ready to extend force majeure on its LNG shipments through mid-October, Bloomberg reports.

EXCLUSIVE- We asked Lars Jensen, CEO of Vespucci Maritime: if Bab Al Mandab closes the way Hormuz has, is there any water left to sail through?

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Mubadala's aerospace shopping spree

Mubadala just tapped yet another firm to strengthen the UAE’s aviation stack. The Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund inked a framework agreement with Brazilian aircraft manufacturer Embraer that opens the door for expanded maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) operations, joint R&D, and a shot at tier-one supplier status for two of Mubadala’s aerospace units, according to a press release.

One unit fixes planes, the other could build them: Under the framework, Abu Dhabi MRO specialist Sanad — which already services more than 40 global airlines — could pick up MRO work on Embraer aircraft, with room to expand into the wider GCC and SAMENA markets. Al Ain-based Strata Manufacturing, whose workforce is 68% Emirati, gets a pathway toward tier-one supplier status on Embraer platforms, plus a role in joint R&D on composites, additive manufacturing, and high-temperature alloys.

The composite pitch is already on the table: Strata is also in talks to build advanced composite structures for Embraer's E2 family under a separate MoU signed the same day. The two sides will work through technical, commercial, and contractual milestones before any work package is confirmed.

Why it matters: Embraer, like its larger rivals, is narrowing its supplier base to fewer partners that can deliver end-to-end. Strata already has the resume: it was the first company in the Arab world to become a direct composite supplier to Boeing and later took on full assembly of 787 vertical fins.

More delights (countries) for Turkish Airlines

Turkish Airlines is eyeing potential investments in airlines, cargo companies, and maintenance and repair businesses across Asia, Europe, and Latin America, Chairman Murat Şeker told Bloomberg, with Asia and South America the likeliest destinations.

The logic is scale in freight and aftermarket services. Turkish Cargo already controls around 6.1% of the global air freight market, operates 28 dedicated freighters, and plans for double cargo volumes by 2033. Acquiring cargo and MRO business could add capacity, customers, and aftermarket revenues as the airline works to close its order for 150 Boeing 737 Max aircraft, with negotiations over CFM engines still the remaining hurdle.

Why it matters: A cargo-and-maintenance platform would deepen Turkish Airlines’ position against Gulf carriers, competing on freight and aircraft servicing rather than passenger networks alone.

Xeneta tears up its own forecast

Xeneta reversed its 2026 air freight outlook, now forecasting long-term air cargo rates to rise 5-15% for the full year, up from the 5-10% decline it projected in December, according to a press release. The reversal traces to the Middle East conflict, which stripped out 12% of global air cargo capacity overnight, holding supply growth to 1% y-o-y in 1H while demand grew 4%.

The imbalance pushed the global average of spot and long-term rates up 17% y-o-y over the half, with spot rates up around 40% y-o-y in May before starting to plateau. Xeneta expects pressure to ease in the second half as capacity returns and demand growth moderates, with full-year demand coming in near the upper end of its 2-3% range.

Why it matters: Shippers had budgeted for falling air freight rates this year and instead face a double-digit swing the other way, on long-term contracts many are negotiating now. Xeneta sees the market tilting back toward shippers in 2H if capacity continues to recover, but warns the turn isn't ensured — another geopolitical shock could undo it.

Market watch

Oil prices jumped to a six-week high this morning Red Sea disruption fears, Reuters reports. Brent crude futures gained USD 2.2 to USD 96.27 / bbl by 03.27 GMT, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) increased USD 1.65 to USD 88.48 / bbl.

The Baltic Index snaps losing streak: The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk index — which tracks rates for the capesize, panamax, and supramax vessel segments — was up 1.7% to 2,715 points on Wednesday. The capesize index gained 4.7% to 4,114 points, while the panamax slipped 2.8% to 2,120 points. The smaller supramax edged down 0.9% to 1,715 points.

PSA

CMA CGM will impose an emergency fuel surcharge from 1 August, charging USD 150 per TEU for dry containers and USD 165 for reefers on all long-haul headhaul shipments, according to a statement. Long-haul backhauls and intra-regional trades will face surcharges of USD 75 and USD 90 per TEU. The fee — introduced after renewed fighting around Hormuz pushed fuel prices higher — will remain in place until further notice.

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