Airlines reassess Saudi airspace risk after Houthi strike on Abha airport

Houthi ballistic missiles and drones targeted Saudi Arabia’s Abha International Airport on Monday, the first direct attack on Saudi territory since the truce froze the Yemen war in 2022. Coalition spokesperson Turki Al Malki said air defenses dealt with ballistic missiles launched toward the southern region, and no casualties were reported. Houthi military spokesperson Yahya Saree declared the “de-escalation phase” over and warned the strikes “will not go unanswered or unpunished.”

What set this off? Yemen’s internationally recognized government said it cratered the Sanaa airport runway to stop an Iranian aircraft from landing, after failing to persuade the Houthi delegation returning from Ayatollah Khamenei's funeral in Tehran to fly home on national carrier Yemenia instead, Agence France-Presse reports.

Flights were grounded within hours: At least 10 departures from Abha were canceled yesterday, including five Saudia services and two Flyadeal flights, while Flydubai canceled its Abha and Najran services after diverting an Abha-bound flight to Taif. Egypt’s Air Cairo has also canceled all flights to and from Abha after the closure of Abha International Airport yesterday.

Containment is the base case — for now: The immediate impact should remain contained if the attack proves isolated, with heightened security, temporary disruption at Abha, and tactical rerouting around southern Saudi airspace more likely than a nationwide closure, Wouter Dewulf, professor of air transport management and economics at the University of Antwerp, tells EnterpriseAM.

It’s not just missiles airlines are pricing in now: The attack will force carriers to reassess their exposure not only to a direct strike, but also to interceptions, falling debris, and possible misidentification, Dewulf says. Although striking an aircraft at cruising altitude would require sophisticated capabilities, some airlines may still avoid southern or western Saudi Arabia or extend suspensions as a precaution, he adds.

Carriers are boxed in: “KLM is already looking at alternative routings for flights from India, which shows how challenging the situation has become. European airlines are already avoiding several corridors through Ukraine, Iran, Iraq, Yemen, and Russia, so the remaining alternatives are limited and often involve longer flight times and higher fuel costs,” Dewulf argues.

Escalation is the thing to watch: A single attack followed by de-escalation would likely mean only temporary rerouting, Dewulf says, but repeated strikes, a Saudi retaliation, or attacks closer to Jeddah, Riyadh, Dammam, or the main Gulf aviation corridors could turn a localized disruption into a much wider regional airspace shock, he adds.