TODAY: BlueFive backs CargoX expansion + Ascom board advances Ostool buyout

Good morning, ladies and gents. We're ending the week with two moves worth watching. First up, BlueFive Capital is doubling down on the future of last-mile operations, leading a USD 250 mn raise for autonomous delivery startup CargoX. Meanwhile, Ascom is edging closer to taking control of Raya’s Ostool — an agreement that could bring the logistics player full circle, back under Qalaa Holdings.

Adnoc braces for tougher flows

UAE’s oil giant Adnoc resumed naphtha exports using a different route through Oman’s Sohar port, driving prices down to their lowest levels since the start of the war, traders told Reuters. The alternative route opens up a way to ship exports to Asia and comes as Adnoc pushes to develop similar routes that bypass the Strait of Hormuz.

The route has eased price pressures as well: Prices for naphtha delivery in the second half of July dipped to USD 788 per ton in Asia, down from USD 1.3k in March for a region which is heavily dependent on Gulf imports. Adnoc had been holding on to around 1 mn tons per month of naphtha since April on account of the Hormuz disruption.

Adnoc is also offering up barrels in a spot tender, Reuters reports elsewhere. Up to 2 mn barrels of Upper Zakum, Das, and Umm Lulu crude are available per customer.

Our take: Spot tenders are usually used to clear surplus barrels, which are likely sitting due to the blockade. Still, some Adnoc LNG tankers have passed through the strait with their tracking systems off.

Timing is of the essence: This comes as Philippe Khoury, Adnoc’s executive vice president for sales and trading, says he sees August as a potential tipping point for oil prices if demand increases and the Iran war keeps Hormuz flows below pre-war levels, Reuters reports. Economies have been absorbing the supply shock by reducing demand, keeping prices around USD 100 / bbl, but that buffer will be tested if demand rises in August with no resolution to the crisis, he said.

IN CONTEXT- Recovery has a long tail: Global oil flows could take at least four months afterthe war ends to recover to 80% of pre-conflict levels, while a full return to normal Hormuz volumes may not come before 1Q or 2Q 2027, Adnoc CEO Sultan Al Jaber also stated.

Beyond the chokepoint

Adnoc is also now planning on building a multi-fuel pipeline to hedge against future disruptions to shipping through Hormuz, the Financial Times reports, citing comments Khoury made at a conference.

The plan: The pipeline will be able to export refined oil products, including gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel. Khoury didn’t specify a timeline or an exact location for the pipeline, but Adnoc has increasingly been looking to the UAE’s east coast to develop export alternatives to complement its existing Habshan-Fujairah pipeline.

The grain game

Egypt’s Supply Ministry is in technical talks with Russian agricultural firms to establish a grain storage and distribution hub in the Suez Canal Economic Zone (SCZone), Supply Minister Sherif Farouk told Hapi, adding that a Russian firm has already dispatched a technical delegation to evaluate one of the ministry’s logistics zones, with feasibility studies on potential sites still underway.

The talks are the latest move in a playbook the Egyptian government has been running with Russia, Ukraine, and Brazil — positioning Egyptian ports as a regional food supply-chain hub for the Middle East and Africa. The ambition is real, but so are the headwinds: as we examined, grain storage and re-export is an ultra-low-margin, freight-sensitive business. Experts say processing capacity and value-added exports may be the more compelling play.

The quieter way through Hormuz

The US is moving from public escort to lower-profile passage support in Hormuz — with ships reportedly switching off AIS, keeping close to Oman’s southern coast, and relying on US forces to intervene if the passage is challenged.

The loud version failed first: Project Freedom was rolled out in early May as a named effort to guide stranded vessels through Hormuz. The move was framed as humanitarian for ships running low on supplies.

What changed? The new version appears to be coordinated without branding. Centcom has denied restarting formal escort, but the latest signals point to support when a transit is threatened, with US forces shooting down Iranian drones aimed at civilian mariners.

Market watch

Oil prices edged lower this morning as diplomatic and political efforts fueled hopes of a broader regional truce, Reuters reports. Brent crude futures fell USD 0.67 to trade at USD 97.14 / bbl by 00.15 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was down USD 0.62 to USD 95.04 / bbl.

The Baltic Index maintains its downward trajectory: The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk index — which tracks rates for the capesize, panamax, and supramax vessel segments — fell 2.5% to 3,124 points on Wednesday. The capesize index decreased 3.8% to 5,253 points, while the panamax index was down 31 points to 2,290 points. The smaller supramax index was up 6 points to 1,583 points.

PSA

MSC rolls out new PSS: MSC will apply a peak season surcharge (PSS) from 1 July on two outbound Europe trades, adding USD 200 per TEU for cargo moving from the North West Continent, ScanBaltic, West Mediterranean, and Adriatic regions to the United States, Canada, and Mexico. In addition, these exports will be subject to a surcharge of USD 250 per 20-ft container and USD 400 per 40-ft container, applicable to both dry and reefer boxes.

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