Can the workaround hold if the boxes are drifting?

Cargo moved — but containers didn’t stay where they needed to. Shipping lines rerouted flows through the UAE’s Khor Fakkan, Oman’s Sohar and Salalah, and Jeddah, then moved boxes onward via feeder vessels, trucking, and rail. The workarounds eased the immediate challenge of bypassing disrupted chokepoints, but it created a second problem: container imbalances, with equipment increasingly displaced from optimal positions.

The earlier phase wasn’t really about efficiency so much as access — Gulf ports were being tested on whether they could be reached at all. But a hub only functions if it remains embedded in the network. Once carriers started repricing war risk and reconfiguring their service strings, the question shifted — it was no longer about how or where to move cargo, but whether the network would continue routing containers through the same ports in a normal flow.

Disruption is cascading across the network… “Congestion in the Middle East has already shifted into key Asian transshipment hubs, including Singapore, Port Klang, and Tanjung Pelepas, which are also vital for feeding goods toward the US,” Xeneta chief analyst Peter Sand explained. As of last month, congestion at Port Klang stood at 50%, while Colombo stood at 45.5%, Tanjung Pelepas at 36.8%, and Singapore at 36%.

…and it’s playing out across full port rotations. By mid-March, services linking Gulf and Indian ports within the same rotation were already accumulating delays at multiple points along the string. “I would say the imbalance should be across Indian gateways and key Asian transshipment hubs, where equipment cycles are expected to be distorted,” Antonella Teodoro, senior transport consultant at MDS Transmodal, tells EnterpriseAM.

India is where the strain becomes visible

The strain is feeding into Indian ports: Shipments originally bound for Middle East markets are being pushed back into India under end of voyage arrangements — forcing exporters to retrieve cargo from container freight station facilities rather than standard delivery channels. At the same time, containers from other origins bound for the Gulf are being discharged at Indian gateways instead — adding pressure at major terminals, including Nhava Sheva and Mundra.

The numbers speak for themselves: An estimated 15k-18k containers have been caught up in the spillover, with cargo flows through affected Indian ports facing delays of around three to five days as congestion builds.

The bigger risk lies in equipment flows: India’s export hubs heavily depend on empty containers returning from Middle East ports — a loop now under pressure as Gulf access remains restricted. By mid-April, a 40-45% shortfall in empty containers was projected across both port and inland depots.

The pressure doesn’t stop at the quayside: “Export-heavy markets with less control over equipment pools are most likely to feel it most — particularly those dependent on timely repositioning rather than large domestic container stocks. Smaller carriers and feeder operators are also more exposed, as they have less flexibility to absorb delays or reposition empty containers efficiently. Inland logistics chains are another pressure point, where delays in box availability are starting to ripple beyond the ports themselves,” Teodoro argues.

There’s no snapback to normal

Ceasefire on paper? Hapag-Lloyd announced on 8 April that it would continue avoiding Hormuz for the time being, while Maersk’s updates still center on exceptional empty-return measures rather than a return to normal box circulation.

The reason is structural — carriers have already committed substantial costs into alternative routings through Khor Fakkan, Sohar, and Jeddah. The conflict has displaced 250k TEUs of weekly container shipping capacity.

Carriers are rewiring their networks

Short-term workarounds are giving way to deeper network changes: “We’re seeing a transition from ad hoc solutions — feedering, land bridges, and temporary port swaps — to more structural adjustments. As the crisis persists, we will see more network recalibration, including adjusted port rotations, more deliberate use of transshipment hubs, and tighter equipment management strategies. That said, a degree of tactical flexibility remains: the system is far from being stable, and carriers are still balancing efficiency against resilience,” Teodoro says.

The system is adapting — unevenly

Despite the disruption, volumes are finding new pathways. Maersk maintained in late March its land-bridge network through Jeddah, Salalah, Sohar, and Khor Fakkan was absorbing roughly the same 35k containers a week, broadly in line with pre-disruption Gulf flows, with Jeddah volumes up 40% since the conflict began.

AD Ports has scaled that demand, with more than 54k TEUs handled this week through Fujairah Terminals and Khor Fakkan. It moved more than 22k containers by land, carried 18k TEUs across a feeder network backed by 24 vessels on eight services, and added more than 100 charter flights.

Ws are beginning to rise: “The clearest beneficiaries are transshipment hubs and operators able to absorb additional relay volumes, particularly those with strong feeder connectivity and available capacity. Some ports in India and Southeast Asia can benefit from increased throughput linked to rerouted cargo. Feeder operators with flexible deployment can also see upside. More broadly, any corridor that offers reliability (even at higher cost) can gain share in the current environment,” she adds.

Flexibility is coming at a cost

Alternative Gulf routes offered flexibility — but not balance. Ports outside Hormuz — such as Khor Fakkan and Fujairah — do not have the scale to replace key hubs such as Jebel Ali or Khalifa Port on their own, even as Red Sea hubs like Jeddah and Sokhna absorb spillover traffic.

On the ground, that imbalance is translating into cost and time. Containers are spending more time in intermediate nodes, and less time returning to export markets where they are needed. One timber shipment from Austria to Qatar that would normally have moved through Jebel Ali was instead diverted to Khor Fakkan, trucked to Abu Dhabi, and reloaded onto feeder vessels for Doha — adding about USD 3.6k per container and potentially as much as USD 5k — with delivery stretching out by another one to two months.

Does North Africa have an opening?

North African ports may be seeing incremental gains, but the center of gravity remains farther east. “We can expect increased activity in parts of North Africa, but I wouldn’t characterize it as a structural shift yet. The workaround remains largely concentrated along the Indian Subcontinent, with North African ports acting more as opportunistic or marginal relief valves rather than core redistribution hubs. That said, if disruption persists, their role could deepen, particularly where they offer proximity advantages and available capacity,” Teodoro says.

Tanger Med is one early signal: The Moroccan port is already preparing for apossible rise in vessel calls as major carriers — including Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, and CMA CGM — reroute around Africa to avoid the Suez canal and wider Middle East disruption.