TODAY: Egypt’s wheat storage gets EU funding + PMI season is here

Good morning, folks. It's a very sluggish news cycle as we hit Ramadan’s first hump day, but this morning yields the latest on Egypt’s wheat storage activities and PMI readings from around the region. First, it’s official…

THE BIG LOGISTICS STORY- Trump’s Canada and Mexico tariffs land: Trump officially slapped 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico starting today, effectively leaving no further room for talks. The levies — initially postponed for negotiations — largely aim to pressure both countries on the alleged issues of border security and fentanyl trafficking and to force Canada and Mexico to shift their manufacturing to the US. Canadian Foreign Minister Melanie Joly warned that Ottawa is “ready” to hit back with retaliatory measures.

China isn’t off the hook either: Trump signed off on doubling tariffs on Chinese imports to 20%. The White House justified the move by accusing Beijing of failing to curb illicit fentanyl shipments to the US. The directive goes into force today.

Retaliation is set: Chinese imports of US agricultural products are expected to drop further in 2025 as Beijing prepares to impose reactive measures against the tariffs. US agricultural exports to China have already been on the decline, dropping 14% y-o-y in 2024 to USD 29.95 bn.

MARKET REAX- The S&P 500 slid around 1.8%, marking its worst day since December and wiping out its year to date gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled 1.5% and the Nasdaq fell 2.6%, as fears over US economic fallout materialized. Tech stocks also slid, with Nvidia tumbling over 8%.

The story made headlines in the international press: Reuters | The Associated Press | Bloomberg | Financial Times | The Washington Post | The New York Times | Axios | The Guardian | CNN | BBC | CNBC

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- China eyes Algeria for EV production: China’s SFE GROUP has pitched to the Algerian government a plan to set up an EV production facility in the 150-hectare Horchaia Industrial Zone in Naama Province, Algeria, according to a statement issued last week. The project’s plan is still in a preliminary phase, with final approvals and procedural sign-offs still pending. We still don’t have a timeline or an investment ticket.

The plant’s production will target both domestic sales and exports to African and European markets, with an annual production ranging between 50k and 200k EVs per year.

About Horchaia zone: The Horchaia Industrial Zone consists of 151 land plots in the Naama province, and has seen investments from paper pulp manufacturer General Emballages for aDZD 37 bn (c. 274.4 mn) plant. Algerian Iron and Steel Company and Chinese public conglomerates SDM and CAMCE were also exploring a possible iron ore conversion project in the zone.

ALSO- Algeria is already exporting EV chargers: Algeria’s state-owned Sonelgaz subsidiary, SAEG, has started exporting EV charging stations to Italy and Libya back in September, delivering 433 units under the first phase of its contracts with both countries. SAEG has also signed multiple agreements to supply its locally assembled charging stations to other European and Middle Eastern markets.

#2- Airbus’ output and deliveries bumped in February, delivering between 35 and 39 aircraft, Bloomberg reports, citing data by aviation market analysis outfit Cirium Ascend. With subpar delivery rate of 25 jets in January, February figures bring the aviation giant’s deliveries to about 59-64 deliveries this year, the slowest production rate for the planemaker since 2021. The company delivered 79 jets in January and February of 2024.

A turbulent takeoff for 2025: Airbus’ deliveries eased in January, dropping what was estimated at the time to be a 26% y-o-y dip, on the back of an engine shortage. This followed an agreement with engine supplier CFM to accelerate some delayed deliveries originally scheduled for December.

REMEMBER: Airbus set a target of 820 commercial aircraft deliveries for 2025. For the A350 aircraft, the company has set a target rate of 12 aircraft in 2028 and will adjust the entry-into-service of the A350 freighter variant — now expected in 2H 2027 rather than 2026.

MARKET WATCH-

#1- Oil prices fell this morning on news that Opec+ is going ahead with the planned supply hikes in April, Reuters reports. Brent crude futures decreased by USD 0.49 to USD 71.13 a barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell by USD 0.26 to USD 68.11 a barrel by 07.20 GMT.

What Opec+ is saying: Opec+ cited “healthy market fundamentals” and a “positive outlook” for its decision, but kept the door open for future changes in policy, saying the increase may be paused or reversed depending on market conditions, according to a statement. “This flexibility will allow the group to continue to support oil market stability,” the statement said.

The UAE is getting its production hike: The UAE is set to see a higher production quota of 3.5 mn barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, up from the current 2.9 mn, after the oil cartel agreed to raise its production quota last year.

ALSO- Kazakhstan exceeds its Opec+ quota: Kazakhstan reportedly bumped crude oil and gas condensate production 13% m-o-m in February to around 2.1 mn bpd, surpassing its Opec-mandated limit of around 1.5 mn bpd, sources familiar with the matter told Reuters.

Opec+’s crude production is already on the rise, reaching 27.4 mn bpd in February, an increase of 240k bpd, its highest since December 2023, Bloomberg reports. The UAE raised its output by 70k bpd — which Bloomberg claims is 400k bpd over an agreed limit — as shipments to Japan and China rose. Iraq and Venezuela also drove the uptick in production.

MEANWHILE- Saudi Arabia and Algeria cut LPG prices for March: Saudi Aramco and Algeria’s Sonatrach lowered the official selling prices for liquefied petroleum gas for March by 0.9%-3.2% compared to February on the back of lower oil prices and weaker global demand, traders told Reuters. Aramco's March price for propane was cut by USD 615 per metric ton, while butane prices were down to USD 605 per metric ton.

#2- Baltic index maintains upwards trend: The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk sea freight index — which tracks rates for the capesize, panamax, and supramax vessel segments — was up47points to 1,276 on Monday. The capesize gained by 162 points to 1,980, while the panamax index was down 18 points to 1,045. The smaller supramax index dropped 8 points to 887.

PSA-

#1- Hapag-Lloyd raises select FAK rates: Shipping giant Hapag-Lloyd will hike its Freight-All-Kinds (FAK) rate for vessels departing from Western Mediterranean ports and bound for the South American West Coast, Central America, and the Caribbean starting 1 April 2025, according to a statement. The rate will increase to EUR 200 for 20’ containers and EUR 300 for 40’ containers, affecting standard containers, reefers, high cube (HC) and special containers.

#2- Foreign trucks must secure the required local permits to transport goods within Saudi Arabia, Saudi’s Transport General Authority said in a post on X. Failing to adhere to this will subject companies or individuals contracting the trucks to fines ranging from SAR 10k to SAR 5 mn. Additional penalties include temporary truck seizure, deportation of non-Saudi drivers operating without a license, and truck confiscation for repeat offenses.

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CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

The UAE will host the Gulf Ship Finance Forum on Thursday, 10 April in Dubai. The forum will host shipping and finance executives from around the region and the world to host presentations, interviews and panel discussions on ownership, management, chartering, legal and trading in shipping.

The UAE will host the CargoIS Forum on Monday, 14 April in Dubai. The event will discuss industry insights and strategies from leading logistics players, including Emirates SkyCargo and Lufthansa Cargo.

The UAE will host the IATA World Cargo Symposium from Tuesday, 15 April to Thursday, 17 April in Dubai. The event will host sessions, specialized streams, workshops and summits related to technology, security, customs, cargo operations and sustainability for over 1.4k industry leaders.

Check out our full calendar at the bottom of this email for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events and news triggers.