KSA, Kuwait and Egypt non-oil private sectors continue growth at a slower pace

How KSA + Kuwait + Egypt’s non-oil private sectors fared in February: Purchasing manager indices (PMI) tracking non-energy sectors in the three countries saw strong — albeit slower — reading across the board, all holding above the 50.0 mark threshold.

REMEMBER- The all-important 50.0 mark is the threshold separating contraction from growth. Anything above 50 denotes expansion, while anything below indicates contraction.

First up, Saudi Arabia: Non-oil business activity in the Kingdom continued robust expansion in February on the back of strong customer sales and increased levels of business activity, according to Riyad Bank Saudi Arabia PMI (pdf). The headline figure came in at 58.4 in February, dipping down from the over decade-high reading of 60.5 in January as new business growth cooled slightly.

The new orders subindex fell to a reading of 65.4 in February, down from 71.1 in January, according to data seen by Reuters. Non-oil firms continued to highlight strong growth in new order volumes, with some 35% reporting an increase in sales in February, compared to just 5% reporting a decline. The rise in demand was partly driven by global markets, as new export business increased sharply, while some companies reported attracting customers through price promotions.

Firms continued to increase their inventory — albeit at a slower pace, with purchasing seeing a slowdown in February. This was attributed to many firms having already accumulated inventory in previous months, Riyad Bank Chief Economist Naif Al Ghaith said.

Input price inflation continued to rise during the month, which was driven by higher material prices and wages. However, the rate of inflation eased slightly in February to its lowest level in four months. Despite higher input costs, the month saw a modest rise in output prices due to competitive pricing pressures.

Employment rose at its fastest pace in well over a year hitting its second-highest level in over 10 years. This comes as firms look to expand their operational capacity to prepare for growth opportunities.

Optimism remains high: Business confidence in Saudi Arabia reached their highest level in 15 months, as businesses conveyed optimism over economic growth and government initiatives that could help support their development and expansion.

In Egypt, non-oil business activity continued to rise for the second month running — but at a slower pace, “marking the first back-to-back improvement in business conditions in over four years,” according to S&P Global Egypt PMI (pdf). Egypt’s headline figure dipped to 50.1 in February from a 50-month-high of 50.7 in January. Last month’s figure represented the index’s highest level for Egypt since November 2020, and marked only the second time the country's non-oil activity has hit expansion territory during this period.

There’s been no better start to our year: “Coupled with January's upturn, the data reflects the best opening two months of the year in the survey's history,” S&P Global Senior Economist David Owen said.

Input cost pressures “remained relatively soft” compared to what was seen in 2024, which indicates that “inflation is likely to continue its downward trend, in the near-term at least,” Owen said. While some respondents cited increased cost pressures to a stronger USD, this was partly offset by a decline in staff costs. However, cost pressures were more felt in the manufacturing and construction sectors. Meanwhile, selling prices rose at a gradual rate in February, as businesses looked to “limit the pass-through of higher cost burdens to clients.”

Employment decreased for the third time in four months, as businesses faced challenges in retaining staff and hiring more workers, representing another “mixed” outing for the employment market.

Overall business sentiment in Egypt remains subdued: Firms’ expectations for overall business activity over the next 12 months dropped to their lowest since last November, with just 5% of businesses surveyed showing positivity towards future output trends. “Economic and geopolitical risks continue to loom large, contributing to another month of subdued expectations for the year ahead," according to Owen.

Meanwhile, in Kuwait: Non-oil activity continued to expand at a slower pace in February, as output and new orders increased again while overall rates of business expansion eased, according to S&P Global’s PMI (pdf). The country’s headline reading fell to 51.6 in February, down from 53.4 in January, still holding above the 50.0 mark for healthy growth.

New orders rose solidly during the month in response to advertising and price discounting, but the pace of expansion softened from January’s reading. New export orders were up in February, but saw their slowest increase in a year-and-a-half. Meanwhile, Kuwaiti non-oil companies lowered their purchasing activity throughout the month, in what was the first such marginal reduction seen in “close to three years.”

Output also increased at a steady rate, but at its slowest pace since last October. This was also linked to “successful marketing across a variety of different channels,” as well as competitive pricing.

Input costs saw a sharp increase despite inflation easing at the beginning of the year. Businesses lowered their selling prices for the second time in three months which may cause concern if input costs continue to rise. "Alongside successful advertising, growth was again predicated on the offer of discounts to customers, and it remains to be seen how sustainable this will be for firms in the face of sharply rising input costs,” S&P Global Market Intelligence’s Economics Director Andrew Harker said.

Employment was down for the first time in six months, but the dip was only a “marginal” one. However, the reduction in employment coming in tandem with rising new orders contributed to another increase in backlogs — the fifth such increase in as many months.

The outlook does bode well: Business confidence eased to a five-month low in Kuwait, but still remained higher than the series average.