KSA and UAE non-oil private sector activity softens in June while Egypt experiences growth

How Egypt + Saudi + Egypt’s non-oil private sectors performed in June: Purchasing manager indices (PMI) tracking non-energy sectors in the three countries told a mixed tale in June. Saudi Arabia and the UAE’s held above the 50.0 mark threshold, but softening demand underpinned growth in both countries. Egypt saw a growth in its headline PMI, supported by stable demand prospects, new orders, and purchases.

REMEMBER- The all-important 50.0 mark is the threshold separating contraction from growth. Anything above 50 denotes expansion, while anything below indicates contraction.

First up, Saudi Arabia: Non-oil business activity in the Kingdom maintained a steady growth rate in June, as output levels grew despite a drop in new orders, input purchases, and employment, according to Riyad Bank Saudi Arabia PMI (pdf). The headline reading dipped to 55.0 in June, from 56.4 in May, recording its lowest reading in over two years.

New order intakes fell to their lowest level in some 2.5-years, as demand softened in the Kingdom. Intake rates were partially buoyed by a strong boost to export sales, which jumped up at the fastest rate recorded this year. June saw businesses’ reduce their purchasing activity, following a period of unparalleled inventory expansion in recent months, resulting in purchases growing at its weakest level since September 2021.

Output increased on the back of existing order books, cutting down backlog volumes in the Kingdom’s non-oil sector. Businesses reported a rise in their employment numbers, yet rates were “only modest and milder than in May”, tapered by wage pressures forcing constraints onto operational costs. Delivery speed continued to improve. Inflation declined, yet, overall input costs increased at their quickest pace in the last four months.

Optimistic despite the slowdown: “Looking at the second quarter as a whole, the growth figures for Q2 still indicate a positive outlook for non-oil GDP in Saudi Arabia, with expectations of growth exceeding 3%,” Riyad Bank Chief Economist Naif Al-Ghaith is quoted as saying in the report.

Over in the UAE: Non-oil business activity grew at a slower pace in June due to recovery from disruptions from April’s floods and persistent supply chain pressure from the Red Sea crisis impacting output growth, backlogs, and input prices, according to S&P Global’s PMI (pdf). The country’s headline reading slipped to 54.6 in June, from 55.3 in May, hitting its lowest point in some 16 months.

Output growth softened across the non-oil private sector, with businesses citing competitive pressures as the reason for slow inclines. Backlogs continued to spike upwards at the end of 2Q, pulled up by solid demand and weighed down by limited capacity due to the lasting effects of floods and the Red Sea disruptions.

ICYMI - Business growth came in at its slowest pace in 14 months back in May, as new order volumes slowed and consumer demand eased amid business disruptions caused by the flooding in April.

Purchasing expenses were high: Inflation rates rose, modestly, to its highest level in almost two years, causing non-oil companies to experience a spike in input costs during June. Businesses linked the rising prices to growing shipping fees, overheads, and raw material costs. Output prices subsequently grew, for the second month in a row, to balance out input cost increases.

The silver lining: Demand rose across the UAE, hand-in-hand with an increase to new orders. With a swell of new work recorded in June, edging up to its highest level since 1Q. Businesses also saw export volumes tick upwards. As a result, output forecasts were sustained and purchasing activity was propelled forward.

And good news from Egypt: Egyptian non-oil business saw order volumes rise for the first time in three years supported by an easing of price pressures and stabilizing economic conditions, according to S&P Global’s Egypt PMI (pdf). Egypt’s headline purchasing managers’ index edged up to 49.9 in June, from 49.6 in May, settling marginally below the 50.0 mark and reaching its highest level in three years.

New orders increased in June, with more firms reporting a growth in demand for the first time since late 2021. Manufacturing and service sectors recorded an increase in new orders, while construction and wholesale & retail sectors reported declines. The upturn in sales and a jump in new export orders are attributed to an advancement in international and domestic conditions. Input purchases also grew in June, supported by the rising demand.

Output rates dropped at their softest level in almost three years, with price pressures “remaining much cooler,” said S&P Senior Economist David Owen. Suggesting that if we continue to see increased sales and purchases in the second half of the year, “firms should have the motivation and need to expand their output.”

Inflationary pressures on firms dropped in 2Q: Input costs jumped up, amid rising material prices, causing firms’ to modestly boost their output charges. Yet, input price inflation rates still remain significantly slower than Q1, a symptom of easing Egypt’s FX crisis.

Employment rates steadied, with some businesses opting to expand their workforce as new orders poured in. Nevertheless, many companies continued to report layoffs and non-replacement for those made redundant.

Sentiment remained upbeat in KSA + UAE: Saudi Arabia’s PMI underscores a promising outlook, Al-Ghaith says, with improving market conditions propelling market confidence. Firms in the UAE are also optimistic, banking on strong demand prospects to boost their input purchase volumes.

But Egypt is still iffy: Over in Egypt, confidence took a dip as businesses’ remain doubtful about future activity and economic prospects although “businesses appear to be heading on the road to recovery,” Owen said.

Stay tuned for our coverage of Kuwait, Lebanon and Qatar’s indices next week.