KSA’s non-oil private sector witnessed steady growth in April while UAE experienced a dip

How KSA + UAE’s PMI performed in April: Purchasing manager indices (PMI) tracking non-energy sectors in Saudi Arabia and the UAE saw both countries holding above the 50.0 mark threshold separating contraction from growth. Saudi remained in expansion with steady growth amid favorable market conditions, while the UAE also remained in expansion — albeit at a slower pace due to the disruptions caused by the storm — which saw upwards of 2k flights canceled, and 115 diverted.

Refresher: The all-important 50.0 mark is the threshold separating contraction from growth. Anything over 50 denotes expansion and anything below indicates contraction.

First up, Saudi Arabia: Non-oil business activity in the Kingdom maintained a steady growth rate in April, thanks to favorable market conditions including consistently high levels of demand, growth in customer base, new investments, and heightened competition, according to the Riyad Bank Saudi Arabia PMI (pdf) released on Sunday. The headline purchasing managers’ index remained unchanged m-o-m at 57.0, remaining firmly above the 50 threshold.

PMI figures are a good omen for non-oil growth: “This uptrend hints at an anticipated spike in the non-oil GDP, likely exceeding the 4.5% [growth] mark for this year,” Riyadh Bank Chief Economist Naif Al Ghaith said.

Output + new orders driving growth, despite rising at a slower m-o-m pace: The output subindex inched down to 61.9 last month, down from 62.2 in March, while the sub-index for new orders followed a similar trend, retreating to 61 last month, down from 64, according to Reuters. Firms allocated greater volume of raw materials and other items needed for output into inventories with stocks of purchases increasing at a survey-record rate.

Purchasing price inflation eased in April,as input costs grew at their slowest rate since July2023. Output prices, however, inched up for the sixth month in a row — “albeit only marginally — with firms looking to provide competitive pricing. Non-oil private sector firms were more cautious with their pricing in April — providing disc. to customers in a bid to boost competitiveness.

Inventories surged at a “survey-record” clip, as firms upped their purchasing activity in anticipation of stronger sales. “Noteworthy is the surge in new orders and inventory expansion, indicative of a proactive response to mounting demand within the market,” Al Ghaith said.

The wholesale & retail sectors recorded record-high growth in output, supported by “competitive pricing, promotional activity, investment and expanding client bases, particularly in the domestic market.”

Meanwhile, vendor performance improved at the weakest rate in eight months in April despite faster delivery times. The rise in new orders and output saw backlogs build up for the first time in three months, and at the fastest rate of accumulation in 4.5 years, as capacity pressures became more apparent.

Employment levels fell for the first time in over two years in April, on the back of higher costs and tighter cashflows, although workers saw an uptick in their salaries. “This strategy aims to bolster productivity and ensure the retention of skilled workers within the expanding economy,” Al Ghaith said.

Over in the UAE, non-oil business activity grew at a slower pace in April due to disruptions from the storm, which impacted business operations and sales, according to S&P Global’s PMI (pdf). The index dipped to 55.3 in April, down from 56.9 in March, remaining well above the 50.0 threshold, although it came in lower than the post-pandemic peak seen in February.

Business growth came in at its slowest pace in 14 months, as new order volumes slowed and consumer demand eased amid business disruptions caused by the flooding, as well as high workloads, which also led to a significant increase in backlogs. The considerable pile up in backlogs is linked to temporary business disruption and elevated pressure on operating capacity, S&P Global Market Intelligence Economics Director Tim Moore said.

Purchasing expenses were high: April saw a spike in purchasing and staff costs driven by increased raw material prices and efforts to offset employees’ higher living expenses. Meanwhile, companies slashed prices to boost sales amid stiff competition, resulting in a marginal decrease in average prices.

Companies were cautious about their inventories, with stocks of purchases expanding at its slowest rate since March 2022. Supplier performance also saw minimal improvement, partly due to transportation disruptions caused by the flooding during the month.

Staffing levels only grew modestly: While companies saw a continued increase in employment levels on the back of new projects and strong demand — which maintained a two-year stretch of jobs being created — the pace of employment growth was mild due to reported high costs. “Pressure on operating margins remained a challenge, as price discounting continued despite faster rises in purchasing costs and salary payments,” Moore said.

Sentiment remained upbeat for the two: The UAE had some respite as business sentiment remained strong as companies noted “buoyant market conditions and strong sales pipelines, as well as a swift recovery from weather-related business disruptions.” As for the Kingdom, the PMI underscores a promising outlook, as the sustained expansion coupled with market dynamics underscores a favorable environment for continued economic prosperity and stability, Al Ghaith commented.

Stay tuned for our coverage of Qatar and Kuwait’s indices tomorrow, with Egypt and Lebanon’s reports to follow on Thursday.