Will Saudi spending eat its oil windfall?

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

Cabinet ties land-transfer registration to settling White Land fees

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Today we take a look at the Kingdom’s fiscal outlook and the evolving sports investment landscape. Forecasters remain split on whether Saudi Arabia's revenue cushion from oil export rerouting will be absorbed by capital and defense spending, leaving the final deficit call uncertain. Meanwhile, Al Shabab’s prime Riyadh real estate has added layers of complexity to its privatization, overshadowing its sporting value and postponing its inclusion in the state's club sale program.

No fees, no exit for idle landowners

Unpaid White Land fees now block transfers: Saudi Arabia will not register any property transaction that transfers ownership of land subject to the White Land and Vacant Real Estate Fees Law until applicable fees are settled, according to a Cabinet decision. The measure closes off the option of selling covered land without first clearing what’s owed on it, Municipalities and Housing Minister Majid Al Hogail said on X.

Why it matters: The White Land tax exists to push idle plots into development, but it only works if owners actually pay it. Tying documentation to settlement gives the levy teeth. An owner can no longer offload undeveloped land and pass the unpaid fees down the chain. It also plugs a collection gap for the state at a time when the fiscal backdrop is tightening, and reinforces the wider policy of forcing underused land into the housing supply, the same logic behind the expanded White Land tax and the government’s land-for-development model with private builders.

Aramco offers crude outside Hormuz

Aramco has offered additional crude oil cargoes for September loading outside the Strait of Hormuz, Reuters reported, citing four unnamed sources, after selling at least 4 mn barrels to Chinese buyers this month.

The details: Aramco has offered Arab Medium and Arab Heavy crude to Asian buyers for a second straight week, with cargoes available through ship-to-ship transfers off Fujairah in the UAE or Sohar in Oman, both outside the Strait. Bids were due Wednesday.

IN CONTEXT- Aramco is routing crude around both of the region’s threatened chokepoints as attacks disrupt shipping. Tankers carrying Saudi crude have switched off trackers and transferred cargoes off Sohar for delivery to China, while two Asian refiners recently shifted September loadings from Yanbu to Egypt’s Sidi Kerir amid Houthi threats in the Red Sea. Sidi Kerir exports more than doubled to around 2.3 mn bbl/d in August from about 1 mn bbl/d in July, with Saudi barrels driving most of the increase.

A new cover

Ladun Investment will begin trading on the main market on Monday, 31 August, with daily share price fluctuation limits set at 10%, following its transfer from the Nomu-Parallel Market, according to a Tadawul statement. The company received Tadawul’s approval earlier this month after resubmitting its application to move to the main market last month, having put the transfer on hold late last year.

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The big story abroad

Meta and Nvidia are taking up prime real estate on the business press’ front pages this morning, for two very different reasons. Facebook owner Meta is set to pay USD 18 bn in settlements to US states over the next decade to resolve lawsuits accusing it of designing Facebook and Instagram to to encourage compulsive use of social media among young users. Meanwhile, Nvidia forecasts a 70% y-o-y jump in sales of AI chips next year, after reporting USD 96.2 bn in revenues and USD 108 bn in sales for the quarter ending in July, beating Wall Street expectations.

On the geopolitical front, Iran and Oman are said to be finalizing an agreement on controlling movement in the Strait of Hormuz, while Russian President Vladimir Putin is reportedly planning an escalation of attacks on Ukraine as negotiations for a peace agreement reach a dead end.

Meanwhile, flash floods on the border of Nepal and China have killed at least 160 people and left hundreds missing, with search and rescue efforts still underway.

Forecasters agree Saudi dodged the export squeeze, they split on whether spending eats the gains

Deficit forecasts for the Kingdom split on spending, not revenue. By rerouting 60-70% of its oil exports through the East-West pipeline, Saudi Arabia sidestepped the export chokehold that hit Gulf neighbors with no way around Hormuz. Where the deficit lands from here turns on how much of that revenue cushion gets absorbed by capital and defense spending, and the forecasters don't agree on that call.

The split is stark. Fitch Solutions’ BMI expects the fiscal deficit to widen to 5.9% of GDP this year as higher capital spending eats the revenue gains. Moody's reads it the other way. In its July outlook (pdf) it named Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi the only two Gulf exporters whose fiscal balance improves through the conflict, on the view that higher oil prices “more than offset lower production volumes.” Both agree the revenue position held. They diverge on whether spending swallows the benefit.

S&P sits closer to Moody's on the mechanism. Hydrocarbon revenues aren't what's moving the regional picture, Ralf Wiegert, head of MENA economics at S&P Global Market Intelligence, tells EnterpriseAM, since expected changes in oil prices and production volumes “are likely to offset one another.” What pushed Gulf deficits wider, on his read, was the emergency spending that inflated public expenditure across the region through 1H 2026. As that unwinds, balances recover.

Where we sit regionally: Saudi lands mid-pack among Gulf exporters — wider than Qatar (out from 0.9% to 4.5% after strikes on its LNG plants) but inside Iraq (5.1% to 6.2%), and well clear of Kuwait, the GCC's widest at anywhere from 18.9% to 25.5% of GDP depending on which BMI assessment you read. The four countries Moody's flags as most exposed — Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, and Iraq — have no way around the Strait, while Oman, the other reroute winner, flips to a 2.1% surplus.

Zooming out

The regional deficit widens before it recovers. BMI expects the Gulf's aggregate deficit to reach 6.2% of GDP this year before narrowing to 4.3% in 2027 as revenues recover, having raised its 2026 estimate from 5.7% after cutting its Brent assumption to USD 84 a barrel from USD 88. S&P is more optimistic, seeing the ratio narrow to 2.0% in 2027 from 3.4% in 2026.

The swing factor is the conflict, not crude. S&P's baseline assumes the Gulf conflict eases enough over 12-18 months, short of full resolution, for shipping to resume through Hormuz and Bab Al-Mandab, unwinding the emergency spending that drove up public expenditure through 1H 2026. Moody's frames the upside the same way — a return to a stable outlook rests on durable de-escalation, a sustained Hormuz reopening, and a faster-than-expected recovery in trade, production, tourism, and investor confidence.

But an improving balance isn't an all-clear. Moody's calls the crisis a test of the Gulf's diversification model, warning that prolonged security concerns could dull the region's pull on capital, talent, and tourism, pressuring non-oil growth long after the deficit figures recover.

Al Shabab’s real estate value makes it an attractive, but more complicated, investment case

Al Shabab’s real estate appeal outweighed its sporting value, postponing its inclusion in the privatisation program. The football club was left out of the privatisation lists and restructuring plans despite investor demand, as some bids focused more on the real estate value of its site than on developing the club as a sports business, giving it a different proposition from other clubs in the program, Al Eqtisadiyah reports, citing a Sports Ministry statement.

REMEMBER- The Sports Ministry opened bidding on five clubs back in June, including Al Riyadh, Al Fateh, Abha, Al Tai, and Al Shoulla, following the Public Investment Fund’s offloading of 70% of Al Hilal to Prince Alwaleed bin Talal’s Kingdom Holding Company at an SAR 1.4 bn a couple of months earlier. It also began transferring the 25% stakes held by nonprofit foundations in Al Ittihad, Al Ahli, Al Hilal, and Al Nassr to PIF.

The club has a prime location, as it occupies a 91.3 sqm site on King Fahd road, one of Riyadh’s main arteries and close to major developments including King Abdullah Financial District and The Avenues Riyadh. The location and size made the club’s valuation a mix of football, real estate and urban development.

“The value of the land could exceed the market value of some major sports clubs,” Indicators Real Estate Valuation’s director Hamdan Al Mutairi said, describing the site as a “rare real estate icon” due to its position on a major commercial corridor and proximity to high-profile projects.

The appraisal process needs to involve several factors: The market value requires an accredited property valuation and would depend not only on the site itself, but also on zoning, permitted uses, ownership structure and obligations linked to the existing sports facilities, Al Saedan Real Estate’s board member Nawf Ibrahim bin Saeedan said. The valuation should also account for its brand, fan base, commercial rights, contracts, and academies.

The site could even support a mixed-use investment model, combining sports facilities with offices, hotels, residential units, retail and entertainment, provided regulations and the privatization terms allow it, Bin Saeedan added. This would generate generate income from the site throughout the day rather than relying mainly on sports revenues.

The overlap between football and real estate is well established globally: Manchester City turned the area surrounding its stadium into sports, commercial, education, and entertainment facilities alongside wider urban development, sports economist Talal Almaghrabi said. Meanwhile, Chelsea involved the location of its Stamford Bridge stadium in investment discussions, including land ownership and future development projects.

This high value, however, could itself be a reason for delaying the sale rather than accelerating it, Almaghrabi mentioned. A club with a high-value property asset creates a more complex investment case, requiring the state to weigh an investor’s ability to run the football operation and unlock sustainable value from its assets while preserving its sporting role. That could make the most suitable investor not necessarily the one with the strongest sports credentials, but one able to combine sports with real estate and urban development.

Looking ahead, investors will need clarity on the land’s legal status and ownership before making their decision. This includes whether it forms part of the assets being offered, available usufruct and development rights, planning requirements and approved projects in the surrounding area, with these factors helping investors determine the site’s worth over the next 10 or 20 years as riyadh’s development plans progress, Almaghrabi added.

MIS scales its Humain data center contract fivefold, BinDawood taps SAR 542 mn for Estonia dairy acquisition

MIS's Humain contract balloons

MIS is scaling up its AI data center contract with Humain fivefold. Al Moammar Information Systems received an award letter increasing the project's capacity to 250 MW from 50 MW, per a Tadawul filing. The added scope covers 200 MW of new data centers, built in phases, taking the total contract value above 689% of the company's 2025 revenue.

REMEMBER- The original contract, signed in March, was valued at more than 155% of MIS's 2024 revenue.

Market reax: MIS shares hit a record high on the news, with shares up 87% this year. The expanded contract now sits close to the company's entire SAR 9.75 bn market cap. The surge has lifted founders Ibrahim and Khalid Al Moammar, who hold just over 50%, to a combined fortune of about USD 1.4 bn, according to Bloomberg.

BinDawood finds financing for Estonia dairy buy

BinDawood Holding has secured a SAR 542 mn Sharia-compliant Murabaha facility from Banque Saudi Fransi and Gulf International Bank to fund its purchase of dairy assets from Estonia's AS E-Piim Tootmine, the company said. The financing runs three to five years, with no bank guarantees provided.

What it's buying: BinDawood agreed to acquire the Estonian dairy plant for around EUR 135.25 mn through its wholly owned subsidiary JUUST & JUBN OÜ. The plant processes 1.1 mn kg of milk a day and accounts for about 15% of Estonia's cheese market.

REMEMBER- BinDawood has spent around SAR 1.8 bn on acquisitions since 2022, expanding beyond grocery retail into food manufacturing, including three Jeddah factories and UAE-based Wonder Bakery. It plans to invest up to SAR 1.5 bn more over the next two to three years, mainly in Saudi Arabia.

MENA VC funds sit on USD 1.5 bn as deployment lags

MENA-focused venture funds are sitting on an estimated USD 1.45 bn in dry powder — capital committed but not yet deployed — according to a Magnitt report seen by EnterpriseAM. That's 88% of the USD 1.64 bn raised across 17 funds since 2024, or put another way, nearly nine of every ten USD committed to the funds raised since 2024 is still on the sidelines.

The pile reflects how early these funds are. Venture funds typically deploy over five to seven years, and 10 of the 17 identified funds have committed less than 10% of their target, leaving more than 90% available. Of the USD 1.64 bn committed, only USD 197 mn had been deployed by 1H 2026.

What has gone out has concentrated in the established markets. Saudi Arabia drew the largest share across all three launch years, ahead of the UAE and Egypt. Of the USD 60 mn that 2026-launched funds deployed in 1H, USD 33 mn went to Saudi startups and USD 7 mn to the UAE, with USD 20 mn spread across other MENA markets.

The largest funds skew toward the UAE. BECO Capital's Booster Growth Fund I leads at USD 250 mn in target size over the 2024-1H 2026 period, followed by Shorooq Partners' Late Stage Growth Fund at USD 200 mn and Oman's Jasoor Fund at USD 180 mn. Four of the 17 funds carry an explicit AI mandate.

The largest individual funds skew toward the UAE, however. BECO Capital's Booster Growth Fund I leads at USD 250 mn in target size across the 2024-1H 2026 period, followed by Shorooq Partners' Late Stage Growth Fund at USD 200 mn and Oman's Jasoor Fund at USD 180 mn. Four of the 17 funds carry an explicit AI mandate.

The pool has grown fast. Six active funds in 2024 held a combined USD 572 mn, only USD 42 mn of it deployed. By 2025, the cumulative count reached 14 funds targeting USD 1.28 bn, 89% still undeployed. Three more funds in 1H 2026 added USD 370 mn, all of it dry powder, taking the combined target above USD 1.6 bn.

Don’t read the 2026 funds as war-proof, though. Magnitt cautions that the three funds added this year, despite the US-Iran war and the Houthi threats, likely reflect fundraising processes started before the conflict. On its assumed six-to-nine-month transmission lag, Magnitt sees the war's real effect on new fund formation surfacing in 2H 2026 and early 2027.

Why it matters: A USD 1.45 bn pool sounds like a cushion, but dry powder only counts once it's deployed. Whether it meets the region's funding needs depends on pace, mandates, risk appetite, and how well the capital matches founders' stage and geography, and on whether the war chokes off the next wave of fundraising before this one is spent.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asian markets are trading mixed this morning, with the Shanghai Composite up 0.2%, Japan’s Nikkei nearly flat, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng down 0.2%. Meanwhile, Wall Street futures are blinking green on positive earnings from Nvidia.

TASI	11,260	+0.25% (YTD: +7.3%)
MSCI Tadawul 30	1,519	+0.42% (YTD: +9.5%)
NomuC	21,824	+0.9% (YTD: -6.3%)
USD : SAR (SAMA)	USD 3.75 Sell	USD 3.75 Buy
Interest rates	4.25% repo	3.75% reverse repo
EGX30	55,107	-0.3% (YTD: +31.7%)
ADX	10,036	-0.3% (YTD: +0.4%)
DFM	5.867	+0.6% (YTD: -3%)
S&P 500	7,676	-0.0% (YTD: +12.1%)
FTSE 100	10,878	-0.1% (YTD: +9.5%)
Euro Stoxx 50	6,471	+0.2% (YTD: +11.7%)
Brent crude	USD 87.69	-0.2%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 2.87	+1.1%
Gold	USD 4,679	+0.6%
BTC	USD 78,414	-0.3% (YTD: -11.6%)
Sukuk/bond market index	908	+0.5% (YTD: -1.2%)
S&P MENA bond & sukuk	151.4	+0.05% (YTD: -0.32%)
VIX (Volatility Index)	15.2	-1.6% (YTD: +1.7%)

THE CLOSING BELL: TADAWUL-

The TASI was up 0.25% yesterday on turnover of SAR 5.7 bn. The index is up 7.3% YTD.

In the green: Enaya (+10.0%), Amana Ins. (+10.0%), and Fipco (+5.5%).

In the red: Baan (-4.1%), Petro Rabigh (-3.6%), and Marafiq (-3.5%).

THE CLOSING BELL: NOMU-

The NomuC was up 0.9% yesterday on turnover of SAR 25.9 mn. The index is down 6.3x% YTD.

In the green: Alashghal Almoysra (+12.3%), Itmam (+9.6%), ana Mobi Industry (+8.0%).

In the red: DRC (-12.8%), Arabi Start (-9.5%), and Dar Almarkabah (-8.7%).

CORPORATE ACTIONS-

Acwa Power’s shareholders approved the distribution of SAR 352.6 mn in dividends for 2025, equivalent to 0.46 SAR per share, according to a Tadawul disclosure. The distribution date is set for 9 September.

CALENDAR

AUGUST

30 August-1 September (Sunday-Tuesday): Saudi Paper and Packaging Expo, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

31 August-3 September (Monday-Thursday): Leap Tech Conference, Riyadh Exhibition & Convention Center - Malham.

SEPTEMBER

8-10 September (Tuesday-Thursday): The WTM Spotlight Riyadh, Riyadh Front Exhibition & Conference Center (RFECC), Riyadh.

15-17 September (Tuesday-Thursday) The Global AI Summit, King Abdulaziz International Convention Center, Riyadh.

23 September (Wednesday): Saudi National Day.

28 September-1 October (Monday-Thursday): The International Conference on Theory and Practice of Electronic Governance (ICEGOV), Prince Sultan University, Riyadh.

OCTOBER

25-26 October (Sunday-Monday): The Global Proptech Summit, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

26-28 October (Monday-Wednesday): ACHEMA Middle East, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

26-29 October (Monday-Thursday): The Future Investment Initiative, King Abdulaziz International Conference Center, Riyadh.

28-29 October (Wednesday-Thursday): Procurement and Supply Chain Futures Forum, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

28-29 October (Wednesday-Thursday): Real Estate Supply Chain Forum, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

30 October-1 November (Friday-Sunday): The New Global Sport Conference, Sofitel Hotel & Convention Centre, Riyadh.

NOVEMBER

11-12 November (Wednesday-Thursday): Aluminum Arabia, The Arena, Riyadh.

16-19 November (Monday-Thursday): Cityscape Global, Riyadh Exhibition and Convention Centre (Malham), Riyadh.

29 November-1 December (Sunday-Tuesday): The UN Trade and Development Global Supply Chain Forum, Riyadh.

29 November-1 December (Sunday-Tuesday): The Global Logistics Forum, King Abdulaziz International Convention Centre, Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2026:

2H: Sabic’s USD 6.4 bn Fujian project in China to start production;
November: The Esports Nations Cup, Riyadh;
The World Economic Forum’s Global Collaboration and Growth Meeting, Jeddah;

2027

FEBRUARY

1-3 February (Monday-Wednesday): Energy Regulators Regional Association annual conference, Riyadh.

MARCH

21-25 March (Sunday-Thursday):The World Water Forum, Riyadh.

22–24 March (Monday-Wednesday): Capital Markets Forum, Four Seasons Hotel, Riyadh

APRIL

26-29 April (Monday-Thursday): World Energy Congress, Riyadh.

JUNE

1-3 June (Tuesday-Thursday): The Saudi Entertainment and Amusement Expo, Riyadh Front Exhibition and Conference Center.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2027:

The Ocean Race finishes in Amaala on the Red Sea;
Riyadh-Kudmi transmission line to be completed;
Aero Middle East and Sand & Fun takes place in Thumamah Airport, Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2Q 2027:

The Hail Region Water Networks Project is expected to be completed.

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