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Tuesday, 14 Apr 2026

What We’re Tracking Today
The Big Story Today
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US blockade of Iranian ports puts Gulf maritime hubs on high alert

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Today at a glance

1

LOGISTICS

Can the blockade squeeze Iran without shutting the Strait?
2

CONSTRUCTION

New rules clear path for Egyptian contractors to join Saudi housing and utilities market.
3

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

Opec+ output drops 20% in March with Saudi and Iraq leading declines.
4

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

Saudi’s China-bound crude halved for May.
5

ALSO ON OUR RADAR

Saudi Arabia Railways rolls out Gulf-to-inland freight corridors.
6

MOVES

Aljazira Takaful appoints Abdulrahman bin Saleh Alobrah as CEO.
7

PLANET FINANCE

Wall Street built a tool to short private credit.

Tuesday, 14 Apr 2026

What We’re Tracking Today
The Big Story Today
Construction
Moves
Also On Our Radar
Planet Finance
Calendar
1

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

Opec+ March output slides

Good morning, friends. The good news is: the ceasefire is continuing to hold, though ongoing drone attacks on Bahrain are sparking concerns that some proxies in the war are not giving up.

On the Hormuz front, the US military said it will begin blocking all maritime traffic entering and leaving Iranian ports as of yesterday, as US forces also began setting conditions for mine clearance in Hormuz over the weekend. US warships are reportedly already moving through the waterway as part of their operation and the military says it’s working to secure safe passage for commercial shipping. We have more on this in today’s big story, below.

WEATHER- Rain, rinse, repeat: Most of the Kingdom is in for moderate to heavy thunderstorms, rain, and strong winds today, with the most intense activity expected over Asir, Jazan, and Makkah.

  • Riyadh: 29°C high / 19°C low;
  • Jeddah: 34°C high / 22°C low;
  • Makkah: 35°C high / 23°C low;
  • Dammam: 30°C high / 19°C low.

Watch this space

OIL — Opec+ output slipped nearly 20% in March: Opec+ crude output averaged 35.06 mn bbl / d in March, down 7.7 mn bbl / d m-o-m — nearly 20% — with Iraq and Saudi Arabia seeing the largest declines, as flows remain constrained, according to its latest monthly oil report (pdf). Iraq output fell 61% m-o-m to 1.63 mn bbl / d, while Saudi production dropped 23% to 7.8 mn bbl / d.

Cutting the quarter, keeping the year intact: The group cut its forecast for global oil demand in the second quarter by 500k bbl / d to average 105.07 mn bbl / d. Still, the 2026 demand growth forecast was left unchanged at 1.38 mn bbl /d.

That leaves the market reading conflicting signals: While demand expectations are easing on paper, actual supply remains tight due to logistics and geopolitics rather than deliberate cuts. At the same time, planned Opec+ output boosts of 206k bbl / d for May — with Saudi Arabia alone contributing 62k bbl / d — risk being largely nominal as key nations remain unable to raise production amid the US-Iran conflict, adding another mismatch between paper balances and market realities.

LOGISTICS — Saudi crude flows to China are being cut in half next month, with the Kingdom set to ship some 20 mn barrels to its biggest buyer in May, down from roughly 40 mn barrels allocated for April, Bloomberg reports, citing traders.

IN CONTEXT- Aramco hiked Asia-bound Arab Light crude by USD 17 / bbl for May deliveries, bringing the total premium to an unprecedented USD 19.50 over the Oman-Dubai benchmark, while also limiting Asian refiners to Arab Light loadings only via Red Sea ports.

China started leaning on inventories instead of paying up, giving state refiners the green light to tap commercial crude stockpiles, with analysts estimating drawdowns of up to 1 mn bbl / d through April-June.

ECONOMY — The GCC’s real GDP grew 5.2% y-o-y in 3Q 2025 to USD 474 bn , according to the latest data from the GCC Statistical Centre (pdf). Meanwhile, nominal GDP — which is not adjusted for inflation — grew 2.2%.

Growth was broad-based across the bloc: All GCC economies recorded positive real GDP growth during the quarter, with the UAE leading the pack with 6.8% growth. It was followed by Saudi Arabia and Kuwait at 4.8% each, Bahrain at 4.0%, Qatar at 2.9%, and Oman at 2.0%.

Diversification is advancing — but oil remains key: While hydrocarbons remain the cornerstone of the regional economy — accounting for 22.0% of nominal GDP — non-oil sectors are assuming an increasingly prominent role in the output structure. Manufacturing contributed 12.4%, followed by wholesale and retail trade at 9.7%, and construction at 8.4%. Other key contributors included public administration and defense (7.5%), financial and ins. activities (7.0%), and real estate (5.8%).

REMEMBER- The GCC is very likely to see growth slashed this year due to the repercussions of the war, with Oxford Economics forecasting 2.6% growth, down 1.8 percentage points from its earlier forecast, citing “lower oil production, exports, tourism, and domestic demand.”

DEBT — Pakistan turns to Saudi Arabia, China to repay UAE loan: Pakistan is in talks with Saudi Arabia and China to secure more than USD 3.5 bn in loans and investments to cover a USD 3 bn repayment due to the UAE, Bloomberg reports, citing people familiar with the matter.

Pakistan’s bind: The move comes after Islamabad failed to roll over the loan for the first time in seven years, leaving it with a month-end repayment deadline and adding pressure on foreign exchange reserves of about USD 16 bn — enough for roughly three months of imports. The UAE reportedly pushed for a short rollover of under a year, which Pakistan rejected.

Why KSA and China? The Kingdom has been stepping up engagement with Pakistan lately, including the recent delivery of Pakistani fighter jets under our mutual defense pact and an agreement to set up an economic cooperation framework in October. Meanwhile, China remains Pakistan’s largest creditor, with over USD 25 bn in debt and ongoing Belt and Road-linked financing.

Data point

SAR 12.6 bn — that’s where expatriate remittances in the Kingdom stood in February, down 2% y-o-y to a 15-month low, the Saudi Gazette reported, citing data from the Saudi Central Bank. On a monthly basis, expat remittances dropped 6% (SAR 768 mn) from January. Remittances by Saudis abroad also declined 22% y-o-y to SAR 4.86 bn during the month.

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The big story abroad

Goldman Sachs has made headlines today after its financial results for 1Q beat expectations. The US investment bank’s bottomline rose 19% y-o-y to USD 5.6 bn — driven by strong dealmaking and record-setting equities revenues. That said, the firm's fixed income revenue dropped 10% to USD 4 bn, missing StreetAccount’s estimates set by a substantial USD 910 mn. The company attributed the slump to significantly lower returns in interest rate products, mortgages, and credit.

Also on Wall Street: Asset management giant BlackRock has upgraded its forecast for US equities, citing the limited broader impact of the conflict in Iran as key drivers for a positive market outlook. The firm raised its outlook from a notch to overweight from neutral, arguing that there is "tangible evidence of actions” that will lead to a resumption of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. BlackRock singled out earnings in the tech sector as especially likely to shield stateside equities from fallout of the regional war.

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2

THE BIG STORY TODAY

US blockade of Iranian ports puts Gulf maritime hubs on high alert — and pushes Brent past USD 100

Washington’s move to choke off Iranian maritime traffic is sending shockwaves across markets, pushing crude past USD 100 a barrel and putting regional operators on high alert after Tehran threatened to retaliate against wider maritime infrastructure.

The action: The US military said it started blocking all maritime traffic entering and leaving Iranian ports on the Gulf and Gulf of Oman yesterday, following collapsed talks in Islamabad.

The lane remains open for the Kingdom (for now): The blockade does not apply to vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz to non-Iranian destinations. To keep the corridor viable for regional crude exports, US warships started mine-clearance operations, and Washington expanded war-risk support for transiting ships to USD 40 bn days before the blockade order.

The contained US-Iran standoff is threatening to spill over. Tehran is warning that if its port access is cut off, “no port in the Gulf or Gulf of Oman would be secure.” The threat abruptly elevates the physical risk profile for eastern seaboard facilities and regional shipping lanes the Kingdom has been working hard to keep on

The oil equation

Brent crude is already up 8% to cross the USD 100/bbl threshold, as traders price in the loss of Iranian barrels and the heightened risk premium in a corridor that normally carries a fifth of global oil and gas.

The immediate question is whether Riyadh will step in to cool the market — and how much of a premium it can command. A full blockade theoretically removes roughly 2 mn bbl / d of Iranian crude from global markets. “Reduced access to Iranian medium-sour barrels could tighten availability of similar grades, leading to stronger premiums” for Saudi, Iraqi, and UAE crude, Kpler’s Manager of Modelling and Refining Sumit Ritolia told the Times of India.

While Iran entered the conflict with a 180 mn-barrel floating cushion, any sustained squeeze shifts the pressure onto Opec+ and Saudi’s estimated 3.1 mn bpd of spare capacity.

BUT- The escalation risk is massive. The blockade forces Riyadh to balance the upside of higher premiums against the existential threat to regional infrastructure. If the standoff spirals and the wider strait is compromised, up to 12 mn bpd of global supply could be at risk, Onyx Capital Group Managing Director Jorge Montepeque told Bloomberg Television.

Are we seeing denial in oil markets: Montepeque notes that traders haven't fully priced in a complete shutdown because the prospect is simply “too crazy.”

How sustainable is an Iranian blockade? Not much, given the prospect of environmental threats, the danger to US vessels enacting the blockade, and allies saying no to the whole thing. “Trump wants a quick fix. The reality is, this mission is difficult to execute alone and likely unsustainable over the medium to long term,” Dana Stroul, a former senior Pentagon official, told the Guardian.

AND- Beijing is the clearest external pressure point. China is the primary buyer of Iranian crude, and wartime shipping patterns indicate China-linked cargoes had still been getting through. If the blockade holds, it will test Beijing's willingness to intervene to secure its energy supply.

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3

CONSTRUCTION

Saudi sets new entry rules for Egyptian contractors

Saudi Arabia launched new qualification rules for Egyptian contractors to bring in fresh expertise for a wave of construction and utility projects, Egyptian Federation for Construction and Building Contractors (EFCBC) board member Shams El-Din Youssef tells EnterpriseAM. The National Housing Company (NHC) has formally notified the EFCBC of the changes, Youssef said.

The new entry criteria: The updated rules target companies with no prior presence in Saudi Arabia but meet certain benchmarks. To qualify, firms must:

  • Be classified as first-tier contractors by the Egyptian Federation for Construction and Building Contractors;
  • Not be previously registered with Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Investment;
  • Show at least EGP 90 mn in annual revenues over the past five years;
  • Have a minimum of 15 years’ experience.

Saudi Arabia is looking to tap Egyptian contractors for a SAR 200 bn pipeline of housing, utilities, and healthcare projects. Saudi officials met with Egyptian firms to build on earlier discussions with the NHC and to discuss sourcing expertise.

What KSA offers: EFCBC head Mohamed Sami Saad previously told us the federation sees the Kingdom as large, stable, and welcoming to Egyptian construction companies.

What’s next? So far, 25 Egyptian firms have made the cut and qualified for registration with the NHC. The next steps involve a series of virtual meetings to hash out the details. Meanwhile, the federation is working with Saudi authorities to reopen the qualification window soon and get even more Egyptian companies cleared to participate.

Why it matters: The new entry rules are a pragmatic response to address a capacity gap in the Kingdom’s construction sector. As homeownership surpasses 66% in 2025 toward a 70% target by 2030, housing needs are accelerating, with Riyadh alone expected to require over 305k new homes by 2034. Domestic contractors are already tied up with gigaprojects like Diriyah, prompting the NHC to open a faster track for Egyptian firms to help bridge the gap and deliver projects on schedule.

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4

MOVES

Aljazira Takaful appoints Abdulrahman bin Saleh Alobrah as CEO

Aljazira Takaful Taawuni has tapped Abdulrahman bin Saleh Alobrah (LinkedIn) as CEO, effective 13 April, according to a disclosure to Tadawul. Alobrah has previously served as CEO at Saudi Arabian Cooperative Ins. Company (Saico), Alahli Takaful Company, and as Deputy CEO and Chief Operating Officer at Arabian Shield Cooperative Ins.

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5

ALSO ON OUR RADAR

Saudi Arabia Railways rolls out Gulf-to-inland freight corridors

SAR opens five freight routes from Gulf ports

SAR launches new Gulf port routes: Saudi Arabia Railways launched five new freight logistics routes linking Arabian Gulf ports to the Kingdom’s central and northern logistics spine, extending to Red Sea ports and northern neighboring markets. The routes are expected to cut transit times, reduce truck traffic on Saudi roads, and support national supply chains across sectors, including petrochemicals and mining.

Our take: The routes support the Logistics Corridors Initiative launched in mid-March, which connects Red Sea ports to overland routes serving GCC markets. The setup enables Asia-Europe cargo to move via inland corridors, helping offset higher rerouting and ins. costs amid regional instability.

RCRC launches auctions for five Riyadh Metro stations

The Royal Commission for Riyadh City (RCRC) has opened an international investment auction for the naming rights of five Riyadh Metro stations, according to a statement. Local and international players have until Sunday, 10 May to submit bids for 10-year long-term contracts covering the following locations: Al-Murooj, An-Nuzhah, King Fahd District 1, Al-Rabi, and Jarir District.

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6

PLANET FINANCE

The Medium Short

If there was ever a warning sign that private credit is in trouble, this is the strongest one yet: Wall Street just built a tool to short it.

What’s happening? S&P Global is teaming up with a syndicate of major banks, including JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley, to launch the S&P CDX Financials Index, a new credit-default swap benchmark that is set to begin trading on Monday.

The index tracks 25 North American financial institutions, but the main attraction is that some 12% of the gauge is tied to private debt funds managed by sector heavyweights like Apollo Global Management, Ares Management, and Blackstone.

SOUND SMART- A credit-default swap (CDS) is a financial derivative that functions like an ins. policy against the risk of a borrower failing to pay off their debt. If you buy a CDS on an entity and that entity defaults, the seller of the swap pays you out. Historically, these derivatives have offered protection against the risk of a bond issuer, such as a corporation, a bank, or a sovereign government, failing to repay its creditors. The new index allows investors to purchase ins. against defaults by the index's members, meaning the value of the index will rise if market sentiment sours on these specific firms.

If this sounds familiar, it should: CDSs were the notorious financial instruments at the center of the 2008 financial crisis, used famously by traders to bet against the housing market in The Big Short. Back then, they were used to insure subprime mortgage-backed securities. When the housing market collapsed, institutions that had sold massive amounts of these swaps — like AIG — couldn't cover the resulting payouts, triggering systemic global contagion.

Why it matters: The private credit market has exploded into a massive industry, valued anywhere from USD 1.8 tn to over USD 3 tn. Betting against it has historically been a clunky and costly headache for traders. This new derivative gives hedge funds a rapid mechanism to profit from a potential sector downturn, while allowing major banks to hedge the massive loans they've made to private credit managers.

The timing is no accident: Private credit funds are facing their toughest stress test since the period following the 2008 financial crisis. Retail investors are increasingly trying to pull their capital amid a spate of defaults, alongside growing fears that the AI boom will upend the software companies these funds heavily rely on for returns.

Custom-made: Writing the CDS directly on business development companies (BDCs) — a specific type of private credit fund — offers a direct line to short the sector rather than relying on proxy wagers, S&P Dow Jones Indices' Nicholas Godec told Bloomberg.

Pundits are seeing attraction: “Private credit has grown fast and there's a lot of financial exposure arising in different ways so there is a real demand for this product,” Barclays head of credit strategy Dominique Toublan told the Wall Street Journal.

The glaring omission? Blue Owl Capital. The private credit giant was initially slated for inclusion but was quietly scrubbed from the final roster following feedback from market players. Market participants warned that Blue Owl has been under so much recent stress that keeping it in would make the broader index “too idiosyncratic” right out of the gate, Godec told Bloomberg.

What comes next: Expect immediate trading volume from the bears. Heavy hitters like Boaz Weinstein's Saba Capital actively advocated for the creation of this exact product.

A roster of major lenders — including Bank of America, Barclays, Deutsche Bank, and Goldman Sachs — are slated to begin selling the derivatives to clients very soon.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Despite the US’ ongoing blockade on Iran, Asian markets are rallying across the board. Japan’s Nikkei is seeing gains of around 2.5% in early trading, while South Korea’s Kospi is up around 3.2%. Meanwhile, US futures are largely trading flat.

TASI

11,427

+1.0% (YTD: +8.9%)

MSCI Tadawul 30

1,547

+1.4% (YTD: +11.5%)

NomuC

22,933

+0.6% (YTD: -1.6%)

USD : SAR (SAMA)

USD 3.75 Sell

USD 3.75 Buy

Interest rates

4.25% repo

3.75% reverse repo

EGX30

49,079

+1.0% (YTD: +17.3%)

ADX

9,786

-0.5% (YTD: -2.1%)

DFM

5,668

-0.8% (YTD: -6.3%)

S&P 500

6,863

+0.7% (YTD: +0.6%)

FTSE 100

10,583

-0.2% (YTD: +6.6%)

Euro Stoxx 50

5,905

-0.4% (YTD: +1.9%)

Brent crude

USD 99.36

+4.4%

Natural gas (Nymex)

USD 2.62

-0.0%

Gold

USD 4,771

+0.1%

BTC

USD 73,262

+2.8% (YTD: -16.4%)

Sukuk/bond market index

1,031

+0.1% (YTD: +23.5%)

S&P MENA bond & sukuk

151

+0.3% (YTD: +6.2%)

VIX (Fear gauge)

19.12

-0.6% (YTD: +27.9%)

THE CLOSING BELL: TADAWUL-

The TASI rose 1.0% yesterday on turnover of SAR 6.7 bn. The index is up 8.9% YTD.

In the green: Solutions (+10.0%), Wafrah (+5.3%), and Almoosa Health (+5.0%).

In the red: Saudi Public Transport (-4.0%), Raydan Food (-3.4%), and Batic (-3.1%).

THE CLOSING BELL: NOMU-

The NomuC rose 0.6% yesterday on turnover of around SAR 20 mn. The index is down 1.6% YTD.

In the green: Naseej for Technology (+9.1%), Alhasoob (+8.3%), and National Signage Industrial (+8.2%).

In the red: Osool and Bakheet Investment (-16.6%), Natural Gas Distribution (-9.8%), and Leaf Global Environmental Services (-8.8%).

CORPORATE ACTIONS-

Solutions by STC’s board recommended doubling its capital to SAR 2.4 bn from SAR 1.2 bn via a bonus shares issuance, it said in a Tadawul disclosure. Funded from retained earnings, shareholders will receive one share at no charge for each share held, subject to shareholder and regulatory approvals.

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CALENDAR

APRIL

20-22 April (Monday-Wednesday): Sports Investment Forum (SIF), Riyadh.

20-22 April (Monday-Wednesday): Future Aviation Forum, Riyadh.

MAY

3-9 May (Sunday-Sunday): The Global Sustainability Expo, The Arena Riyadh Venue.

19-21 May (Tuesday-Thursday): The Saudi Entertainment and Amusement Expo, Riyadh Front Exhibition and Conference Center.

24-28 May (Sunday-Thursday): Eid Al Adha holiday.

JUNE

15-17 June (Monday-Wednesday): Aluminum Arabia, The Arena, Riyadh.

21-24 June (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Food Exhibition and Conference, Riyadh Front Expo.

21-24 June (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Print & Pack, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

21-24 June (Sunday-Wednesday): Riyadh International Industry Week, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

21-24 June (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Plastics & Petrochem, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

21-24 June (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Smart Logistics, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

22-24 June (Monday-Wednesday): The Future Hospitality Summit, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

JULY

6 July-23 August (Monday-Sunday): Esports World Cup, Riyadh.

AUGUST

31 August-3 Sep (Monday-Thursday): Leap Tech Conference, Riyadh Exhibition & Convention Center - Malham.

SEPTEMBER

9-10 September (Wednesday-Thursday): Procurement and Supply Chain Futures Forum, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

9-10 September (Wednesday-Thursday): Real Estate Supply Chain Forum, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

15-17 September (Tuesday-Thursday) The Global AI Summit, King Abdulaziz International Convention Center, Riyadh.

23 September (Wednesday): Saudi National Day.

OCTOBER

12-15 October (Monday-Thursday): World Energy Congress, Riyadh.

26-28 October (Monday-Wednesday): ACHEMA Middle East, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

NOVEMBER

24-28 November (Tuesday-Saturday): Aero Middle East and Sand & Fun, Thumamah Airport, Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2026:

Signposted to happen sometime in 2027:

  • The World Water Forum takes place in Riyadh;
  • The Ocean Race finishes in Amaala on the Red Sea;
  • Riyadh-Kudmi transmission line to be completed;
  • Capital Markets Forum takes place in March in Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2Q 2027:

  • The Hail Region Water Networks Project is expected to be completed.
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