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UK-GCC trade agreement finalized

1

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

Crude exports dip to record lows

Good morning, all. We have another busy issue to wrap up the week, led by the landmark trade agreement between the Gulf and the UK, which is said to add bns to the UK economy every year.

** A QUICK PROGRAMMING NOTE- EnterpriseAM Saudi is taking a publication holiday and will be back in your inboxes on Sunday, 31 May.

Watch this space

OIL — Saudi Arabia’s crude oil exports dropped to a record low of 5 mn bbl / d in March, down 2.3 mn bbl / d, according to Jodi data. Refinery crude throughput dropped by 746k bbl / d to 2.3 mn bbl / d. Crude production also fell by 3.9 mn bbl / d to a record low of 7 mn bbl / d. Meanwhile, direct crude burn also increased by 82k bbl / d to 330k bbl / d.

The culprit is hardly a surprise: Flows passing through the Strait of Hormuz were completely disrupted when the conflict erupted in early March. Ramping up exports via the East-West pipeline and using inventories stored abroad “should have helped the Kingdom to recover exports later in the month,” UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo told Reuters.

REMEMBER- Opec and the IEA both cut their 2026 global oil demand growth outlooks amid the war’s economic fallout. Opec now expects demand growth of 1.2 mn bbl / d in 2026, down from 1.4 mn bbl / d previously. The IEA, meanwhile, flipped from forecasting a surplus to projecting a 1.8 mn bbl / d supply deficit in 2026.


AVIATION — Tickets for Riyadh Air’s Riyadh-London route are now up for sale. The airline is introducing its first commercial Boeing 787-9 Dreamliners starting 1 July, after flying the route using its technical spare “Jamila” aircraft since October 2025, according to a press release.

Part of a wider plan: The airline had plans to expand to 100 cities by 2030 and add two destinations every two months. The official summer rollout comes as analysts question whether Riyadh Air’s ambitious plans are viable amid regional turbulence that is still affecting the wider aviation industry in the Gulf and beyond.

Sports

Esports hosting honors shift from Riyadh to Paris: This year’s Esports World Cup (EWC) tournament will be hosted in Paris instead of Riyadh due to the “current regional situation,” according to a statement by the annual sporting event.

Why this matters: By shifting to Paris, the Esports World Cup is dealing a major blow to the Kingdom’s PIF-backed gaming strategy, which is important for diversification efforts under Vision 2030 and for expanding Saudi Arabia’s cultural footprint. Last year’s EWC hit viewership records, drawing 750 mn global viewers.

What about the Esports Nations Cup? The statement did not comment on the status of the Esports Nations Cup (ENC) — last we heard, the biennial tournament is set to debut in Riyadh this November.

Data point

10.2% — that’s how much the Kingdom’s Operating Revenues Index rose y-o-y in March, according to Gastat’s Short-Term Business Indicators report (pdf). The annual increase was driven mainly by gains in mining and quarrying (25.5%), financial and ins. activities (17.6%), wholesale and retail trade and motor vehicle repair (4.6%), construction (4.8%), and manufacturing (4%). The only sector to contract was professional, scientific, and technical activities, which fell by 0.8%.

ALSO- The Employees Compensation Index jumped 10% y-o-y. Meanwhile, issued building permits dropped 0.7% y-o-y, even as construction compensation rose 7.9% annually.

PSA

Traffic on Othman bin Affan Road will be temporarily diverted starting today, with three main lanes active in each direction, as the development of the axis’ intersection with King Salman Road commences, SPA reports.

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***

The big story abroad

We’re inching closer to what will be the largest IPO ever after SpaceX filed publicly late last night. Now the world is sitting tight in anticipation of the rocket maker’s imminent Nasdaq debut. We dive into the full story and what it means for the Gulf in this morning’s Planet Finance, below.

The return of monetary tightening? The latest meeting minutes from the Federal Reserve indicate the central bank’s willingness to raise interest rates if inflation maintains its growth trajectory above 2%. Prior to this development, CME Group data showed interest rate futures markets pricing in a nearly 50% chance of at least one quarter point rate hike in 2026.

Meanwhile, in the tech world: Nvidia announced USD 80 bn in stock buybacks and an increase in its dividend payout yesterday, after 1Q sales grew 85% y-o-y to USD 81.6 bn, surpassing expectations.

More on the Warner Bros. buyout: To finance Paramount’s takeover of Warner Bros. Discovery, Bank of America and Citigroup are gauging investor appetite for a massive debt package. Early talks indicate a mix of around USD 30 bn in high-grade bonds, USD 12 bn in junk bonds, and USD 7.5 bn in loans.

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2

TRADE

Signed, sealed, and delivered

GCC, UK ink landmark trade pact: The GCC and UK have reached a trade agreement, according to a statement from the GCC and another from the UK government, bringing to an end negotiations that have stretched for years across multiple administrations. The pact makes the UK the first G7 country to ink such an agreement with the bloc.

Inside the agreement: The two sides agreed to remove duties on roughly GBP 580 mn worth of UK exports to the GCC annually, to speed up customs procedures (48 hours and six hours for perishables), and facilitate business activity between the two sides. The statement also pointed to more investment and industrial collaboration.

Why it matters: The agreement is welcome news for a struggling UK economy — adding around GBP 3.7 bn a year to its economy — while for the GCC it’s another notch in the region’s economic and trade diversification belt.

The agreement spans “trade in goods and services, financial services, digital trade, investment protection, government procurement, telecommunications, and the movement of natural persons,” Gulf Cooperation Council Secretary General Jasem Albudaiwi said.

AND- Data is a big part of it: In a first, UK firms will be able to store and process data outside the region, with the statement saying that the move will “save businesses money on setting up costly data centres in the Gulf.”

BACKGROUND- Talks have been ongoing for around four years now, with reports of an imminent agreement going as far back as 2024.

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IPO WATCH

Making an entrance

Dar Albalad's debut breaks post-war IPO ice: Shares in IT services firm Dar Albalad for Business Solutions surged 28.21% on their first trading day on Tadawul yesterday, closing at SAR 12.50 against the SAR 9.75 offer price, making it the best-performing stock on the main market yesterday.

The increase comfortably cleared the 30% daily fluctuation limit applied to new listings on day one, and signaled that investor appetite for Saudi equities has survived the Iran war intact.

ICYMI- Dar Albalad floated 21 mn shares, or 30% of its capital, raising SAR 205 mn at the top of its guiding range, valuing the company at some SAR 682 mn. The institutional book-build was 66.6x oversubscribed, while the retail tranche pulled in SAR 231 mn in orders from more than 90k retail subscribers.

Why this matters: This was the first listing in the GCC since the start of the Iran war, and bankers had flagged it as a litmus test for regional sentiment. The surge on its first day should make life easier for the next issuer in the queue.

Next up: Contractor Mutlaq Al Ghowairi is lining up an IPO that’s expected to raise some SAR 3bn, a much bigger test of how deep that regional appetite actually runs. Institutional bookbuilding is scheduled to start on 31 May.

A little bit about Dar Albalad: The company started in 2001 as a one-man IT shop in Riyadh, founded by Ibrahim Bin Salamah — a former vice chairman and MD at Sabic. It has spent the last 25 years building out IT managed services, consulting, and business solutions for banks, insurers, brokerages, and government bodies. In January 2025, it picked up GSC Solutions (formerly Global Specialty Chemicals), a Dammam-based industrial chemicals outfit, giving it a second leg in industrial services. Headcount sits north of 850, with branches in three Saudi regions in addition to footprints in Bahrain and Qatar.

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DISPUTE WATCH

Cenomi Retail officials charged with stock manipulation

The Capital Market Authority is taking 17 people to criminal court over alleged manipulation of Cenomi Retail's share price. The regulator referred the suspects — a mix of current and former board members, an unnamed CEO, several finance managers, and members of the audit team at the company's former external auditor — to the Public Prosecution, which has now filed a penal case before the Committee for Resolution of Securities Disputes (CRSD), a CMA statement said yesterday.

The charge? Creating a “false and misleading impression” about the value of Cenomi Retail’s shares. The report also flagged suspected misuse of company funds and management powers against the company’s own interests, allegedly to benefit individuals personally or companies in which they held a stake. Some board members and the acting CEO are also being pursued for suspected breaches of the Companies Law, on top of Capital Market Law violations.

The CMA isn't naming names yet. The General Secretariat of the CRSD said it will publish the identities of those found in violation once the committee issues final rulings. Investors who can prove they were harmed will be able to file compensation claims through the CRSD, provided they first lodge a complaint with the CMA.

Cenomi Retail had no public comment on the referral as of this writing. The stock closed yesterday’s session down 2.3% at SAR 12.52, taking its year-to-date losses to roughly 34.6%.

Two years in survival mode: Cenomi Retail, formerly Fawaz Abdulaziz Alhokair & Co., runs more than 800 stores across eight countries and holds franchise rights for brands including Zara under a long-running agreement with Inditex. But the business has been in deep restructuring since 2024, when accumulated losses crossed SAR 1.55 bn in the first quarter alone — equivalent to more than 135% of capital at the time. The board responded with a plan to offload non-core brands in waves, shutter hundreds of stores, and try to deleverage the balance sheet through divestment proceeds.

The Al-Futtaim rescue. The Alhokair founding family agreed in July 2025 to sell their 49.95% stake to UAE conglomerate Al Futtaim Retail for roughly SAR 2.52 bn (around USD 666 mn), at SAR 44 per share. The agreement came with a SAR 1.35 bn shareholder loan from Al-Futtaim to shore up working capital. In September, Cenomi Retail signed a further SAR 1.6 bn credit facility with Emirates NBD Saudi Arabia, backed by an Al Futtaim corporate guarantee. Al-Futtaim is now the company's largest shareholder and a related party in its financings.

The numbers haven't fully turned. Net losses widened to SAR 505.5 mn in2025, with accumulated losses crossing SAR 2.1 bn. The first quarter of this year saw the company swing to a net loss of SAR 47.3 mn from a SAR 1.8 mn net income a year earlier. CEO Salim Fakhouri pointed to softer Ramadan trading and regional geopolitical pressures. The company is in the process of rebranding to AFG International, with the shareholder vote on the name change held earlier this year.

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INFRASTRUCTURE

The frontline security issue

Civilian digital infrastructure is becoming a frontline security issue, with governments, telecom operators, and media organizations warning that cyberattacks, AI-driven misinformation, and service disruptions are now capable of triggering full-scale civilian crises, that was the main takeaway from a webinar hosted by the Digital Cooperation Organization (DCO), attended by EnterpriseAM.

Digital systems are no longer viewed as backend technology layers, but as core national infrastructure underpinning healthcare, banking, emergency response, communications, and public trust. “When hospitals lose access to digital ecosystems, emergency alerts are manipulated, or when civilians cannot access banking, civil records, or travel information, the impact is no longer merely technical,” said Syed Shah, technical publications director at the DCO. “It becomes a civilian crisis affecting trust, security, and continuity of essential services,” he added.

The emerging risks span a broad spectrum, from AI-driven misinformation campaigns and soft cyberattacks aimed at undermining trust and social cohesion, to more severe attacks that can cause physical harm by targeting utilities, hospitals and other critical infrastructure systems, according to a DCO report seen by EnterpriseAM. They also include traditional physical disruptions that can destabilize civilian digital services and broader economic activity — such as supply chain blockades and attacks on submarine cables, which carry roughly 95% of global data traffic, as well as data centers and telecom infrastructure.

IN CONTEXT- The discussion comes as the Iran conflict’s early strikes on digital infrastructure in the UAE and Bahrain, along with maritime disruptions and GPS jamming, have underscored the vulnerability of regional digital and cloud infrastructure.

Governments in fortify mode

Keeping it running: Government priorities are moving from digital expansion toward ensuring continuity during crises. “The focus today is shifting from digital transformation to digital resilience,” said the Digital Government Authority’s Salman Alghliga. He added that governments now need unified governance frameworks covering cybersecurity, disaster recovery, data governance, and business continuity, supported by regular stress testing and crisis simulations.

The private sector’s growing cyber burden

More users, more data, more ways in: Telecom operators and digital service providers are facing growing pressure to secure expanding volumes of customer data as AI tools and digital financial services scale, said Salman Tariq, head of HCC Security and Business Continuity at Jazz World in Pakistan.

Defending the digital floodgates: Companies are now investing heavily in cybersecurity infrastructure, emergency response systems, and AI governance as businesses develop new AI-powered products and services. “The public needs to know that their data, their financial information, is secure,” Tariq said.

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DEBT WATCH

Alinma Bank, Dar Al Arkan tap USD debt markets

Private sector companies and domestic banks are tapping into international funding to keep the wheel turning, as Alinma Bank and Dar Al Arkan take further steps in their USD debt offerings.

#1- Dar Al Arkan closed a USD 600 mn sukuk issuance, locking in long-term capital for its project pipeline. The five-year notes carry a 7.25% annual return, with the final order book peaking at SAR 5.61 bn (USD 1.5 bn). The notes are listed on the London Stock Exchange and Nasdaq Dubai.

ADVISORS- The company tapped Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank, Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank PJSC, Al Rayan Investment, Arqaam Capital, Dubai Islamic Bank, Emirates NBD Capital, First Abu Dhabi Bank, JP Morgan, Mashreq, Sharjah Islamic Bank, Standard Chartered Bank, and Warba Bank as joint lead managers and bookrunners.


#2- Alinma Bank is also kicking off a USD-denominated sustainable AT1 sukuk issuance, with a minimum subscription of USD 200k callable after 5.5 years. The final pricing and size are still subject to market conditions. This issuance follows an SAR-denominated issuance made earlier this month under an existing SAR 5 bn program.

ADVISORS-The bank tapped Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank, Alinma Capital, Arqaam Capital, ASB Capital, Citi, DBS Bank, Emirates NBD Capital, First Abu Dhabi Bank, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Mashreq, Standard Chartered, and Warba Bank as joint lead managers.

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EARNINGS WATCH

Etihad GO Telecom rides wholesale surge to stronger earnings

Wholesale growth and the consolidation of its IT arm powered Etihad GO Telecom to a strong full-year performance. The company posted a 17.7% y-o-y increase in net income to SAR 259 mn in FY 2025-26, while revenue climbed 31.2% y-o-y to SAR 1.9 bn, it said in a Tadawul filing.

Behind the numbers: Wholesale revenue surged 65% y-o-y, adding SAR 314 mn, while B2B revenue rose 11% on higher sales from government and private-sector projects. Results also benefited from consolidating a full 12 months of subsidiary Ejad Tech’s revenue, which contributed SAR 139 mn during the year.

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MOVES

Gulf General Cooperative Ins. appoints acting CEO

Gulf General Cooperative Ins. (GGI) appointed Mohammed Alghamdi as acting CEO, according to a Tadawul disclosure. Alghamdi, who currently serves as the insurer’s sales and marketing director, brings over 15 years of experience in retail, corporate, and bancassurance in the Kingdom’s ins. sector.

Leadership shuffle amid turnaround push: The appointment comes as GGI pushes ahead with a restructuring plan after signing a binding share subscription agreement with BlueFive Capital. The agreement will give BlueFive a 42% stake through a capital reduction and increase designed to absorb most of the insurer’s accumulated losses, which reached 91% of share capital in 1Q 2026.

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ALSO ON OUR RADAR

SAB goes solo on SAR 6.4 bn AlBawani financing

Saudi Awwal Bank (SAB) signed a SAR 6.4 bn bilateral financing agreement with PIF-backed Albawani, according to a press release.

Why this matters: A corporate facility of this size would typically be syndicated across several banks to spread risk exposure. SAB taking the full financing onto its balance sheet signals the bank is leaning further into big-ticket corporate lending tied to the construction pipeline, where Albawani is involved in a number of big projects including Diriyah, Seven, and Aramco Stadium.

Part of a pattern: Last year, the bank extended a SAR 2 bn loan to Saudi Binladin Group for King Fahd Sports City.

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PLANET FINANCE

The Aramco-sized question

The largest IPO in history is here: SpaceX filed its prospectus with the Securities and Exchange Commission last night setting the stage for it to kick off the global roadshow on 4 June. Pricing is expected as early as 11 June, with a listing on Nasdaq 12 June at a target valuation of USD 1.75 tn, targeting USD 70-75 bn in proceeds. The previous record was Saudi Aramco’s USD 29.4 bn listing in 2019, and SpaceX is on track to clear that by more than 2x.

The Gulf is positioned on every side of this trade — as investor, as competitor, and as the reference point against which SpaceX is being priced. Mubadala has historic exposure through the Vision Fund, and multiple GCC family offices have ridden the secondary market valuation ladder from USD 100 bn in 2021 to USD 1.25 tn after the February xAI merger to USD 1.75 tn at IPO. PIF has been a SpaceX equity holder since 2021.

What does the prospectus tell us? SpaceX incurred around USD 4.3 bn in losses in 1Q 2026, bringing in revenues of USD 4.7 bn in the same period. During 1Q 2025, net losses amounted to USD 528 mn along with revenues of around USD 4 bn. The filing also places the par value of Class A common stock at USD 0.001 per share.

Elon Musk remains comfortably in charge, with his ownership of some Class A shares and most Class B shares giving the world’s richest man 85.1% of the voting power. The filling clarifies that Musk will remain at the wheel following the IPO.

The Polymarket consensus puts the closing market cap above USD 2 tn at 47% probability. For the GCC LPs who entered at single-digit-bn valuations, the listing is a generational liquidity event — paper gains crystallize on Day One, and the secondary-sale lockup expires September or October.

PIF recently cut its international allocation target from 30% to 20% in April under its 2026/2030 strategy. If SpaceX IPOs with USD 70-75 bn in proceeds, this could give GCC SWFs a sudden distributable capital injection at exactly the moment the strategic direction is redirected home, instead of outward.

Aramco’s 2019 IPO was the largest in history because it was a sovereign listing — Saudi Arabia going public, in effect, with Aramco as the vehicle. SpaceX is the opposite: a private-sector listing whose physical infrastructure (Starlink ground stations, Starbase, defense contracts) is increasingly a foreign-policy instrument.

The comparison matters because every major US listing for the next 18 months — OpenAI at USD 852 bn, Anthropic at USD 900 bn+, the rest of the AI infrastructure pipeline — will be measured against SpaceX. The Gulf capital markets ecosystem that built itself around the 2019 listing now has to compete with a US ecosystem that has decisively reclaimed mega-cap listing primacy.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asian markets are up in early trading this morning, with Japan’s Nikkei and South Korea’s Kospi rebounding strongly from earlier losses. Stronger-than-expected 1Q Nvidia earnings and vessels making their way through Hormuz fueled the rally.

TASI

10,986

0.0% (YTD: +4.7%)

MSCI Tadawul 30

1,469

0.0% (YTD: +5.9%)

NomuC

22,780

+0.2% (YTD: -2.2%)

USD : SAR (SAMA)

USD 3.75 Sell

USD 3.75 Buy

Interest rates

4.25% repo

3.75% reverse repo

EGX30

51,937

-1.6% (YTD: +24.2%)

ADX

9,598

-0.5% (YTD: -4.0%)

DFM

5,627

-0.6% (YTD: -7.0%)

S&P 500

7,433

+1.1% (YTD: +8.6%)

FTSE 100

10,432

+1.0% (YTD: +5.0%)

Euro Stoxx 50

5,976

+2.1% (YTD: +3.1%)

Brent crude

USD 105.78

+0.8%

Natural gas (Nymex)

USD 3.04

+1.0%

Gold

USD 4,551

+0.4%

BTC

USD 77,583

+1.1% (YTD: -11.4%)

Sukuk/bond market index

908.05

-0.2% (YTD: -1.2%)

S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk

149.64

-0.2% (YTD: -1.5%)

VIX (Volatility Index)

17.44

-3.4% (YTD: +16.7%)

THE CLOSING BELL: TADAWUL-

The TASI was flat yesterday on turnover of SAR 5.3 bn. The index is up 4.7% YTD.

In the green: Dar Albalad (+28.2%), Kingdom Holding (+6.3%), and Savola Group (+6.2%).

In the red: Tasheel (-8.1%), Tadco (-4.8%), and Enaya (-4.1%).

THE CLOSING BELL: NOMU-

The NomuC rose 0.2% yesterday on turnover of SAR 18.1 mn. The index is down 2.2% YTD.

In the green: Asas Makeen (+10.4%), Ratio (+8.9%), and Alnaqool (+8.4%).

In the red: Albattal Factory (-10.9%), Service Equipment (-9.3%), and National Building and Marketing (-6.4%).

CORPORATE ACTIONS-

Banque Saudi Fransi (BSF) shareholders approved a SAR 1.3 bn dividend distribution for 2H 2025 at SAR 0.52 per share, according to a press release (pdf). The distribution brings BSF’s total dividend payout for the full year to some SAR 2.7 bn, or SAR 1.07 per share.


MAY

24-28 May (Sunday-Thursday): Eid Al Adha holiday.

JUNE

15-17 June (Monday-Wednesday): Aluminum Arabia, The Arena, Riyadh.

21-24 June (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Food Exhibition and Conference, Riyadh Front Expo.

21-24 June (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Print & Pack, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

21-24 June (Sunday-Wednesday): Riyadh International Industry Week, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

21-24 June (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Plastics & Petrochem, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

21-24 June (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Smart Logistics, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

22-24 June (Monday-Wednesday): The Future Hospitality Summit, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

AUGUST

30 August-1 September (Sunday-Tuesday): The Saudi Entertainment and Amusement Expo, Riyadh Front Exhibition and Conference Center.

31 August-3 September (Monday-Thursday): Leap Tech Conference, Riyadh Exhibition & Convention Center - Malham.

SEPTEMBER

8-10 September (Tuesday-Thursday): The WTM Spotlight Riyadh, Riyadh Front Exhibition & Conference Center (RFECC), Riyadh

15-17 September (Tuesday-Thursday) The Global AI Summit, King Abdulaziz International Convention Center, Riyadh.

23 September (Wednesday): Saudi National Day.

28 September-1 October (Monday-Thursday): The International Conference on Theory and Practice of Electronic Governance (ICEGOV), Prince Sultan University, Riyadh.

OCTOBER

12-15 October (Monday-Thursday): World Energy Congress, Riyadh.

26-28 October (Monday-Wednesday): ACHEMA Middle East, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

28-29 October (Wednesday-Thursday): Procurement and Supply Chain Futures Forum, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

28-29 October (Wednesday-Thursday): Real Estate Supply Chain Forum, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

NOVEMBER

25-29 November (Wednesday-Sunday): Aero Middle East and Sand & Fun, Thumamah Airport, Riyadh.

16-19 November (Monday-Thursday): Cityscape Global, Riyadh Exhibition and Convention Centre (Malham), Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2026:

Signposted to happen sometime in 2027:

  • The World Water Forum takes place in Riyadh;
  • The Ocean Race finishes in Amaala on the Red Sea;
  • Riyadh-Kudmi transmission line to be completed;
  • Capital Markets Forum takes place in March in Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2Q 2027:

  • The Hail Region Water Networks Project is expected to be completed.

2027

FEBRUARY

1-3 February (Monday-Wednesday): Energy Regulators Regional Association annual conference, Riyadh.

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