Trump is visiting the Gulf in a high-stakes trip. PLUS: Aramco sees mixed results in 1Q

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

THIS MORNING: Flynas to announce its IPO price range today

Good morning, ladies and gents. We have a meaty issue for you today, ahead of Trump’s gulf tour tomorrow which will see him visit the Kingdom, Qatar and UAE. Agreements in investment, oil, defense, AI infrastructure, and nuclear power, are all in the cards, and we have the rundown of what to expect in the news well, below

Also in today’s issue: We unpack Aramco’s results in the first quarter, the latest industrial production data from Gastat, as well as updates from Specialized Medical Company’s Tadawul IPO, Saudi National Bank’s AT1 sukuk issuance, and an avalanche of first quarter earnings. Let’s dive in.

HAPPENING TODAY-

The four-day Riyadh International Industry Week launches today at the Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center. The Middle East’s largest industrial gathering will bring together over 16k industry leaders, featuring four trade shows covering plastics & petrochemicals, print & packaging, smart logistics, and smart manufacturing, alongside an expert-led summit, fostering networking, partnerships, and innovation.

The Saudi Giga Projects Summit is live at The Venue in Riyadh, offering in-depth updates on the Kingdom’s giga developments. The three-day Meed-organized event will cover construction progress, sector-wide prospects, and emerging technologies, offering a spotlight on key projects. More than 40 speakers, 150 company representatives, and 600 attendees will explore trends in supply chains, advanced manufacturing, and demand outlooks through a series of conferences, workshops, meetings, and closed receptions.

The 2025 Saudi Food Show kicks off today at the Riyadh Front Exhibition and Conference Centre, running through Wednesday, 14 May. Sponsored by the Industry Minister, the event brings together leading global food and beverage brands to showcase their latest products.

WEATHER- It just isn’t letting up, with more forecasts of thunderstorms, hail, and strong winds in Asir, Al-Baha, and Makkah, while thunderclouds hang over Madinah, Riyadh, Jazan, and Najran. Dust storms are expected in Qassim, Hail, Tabuk, Al-Jawf, the Northern Borders, and the Eastern Region.

Riyadh is expected to see a high of 42°C and a low of 28°C today, while Jeddah’s mercury will go as high as 33°C and as low as 27°C. Makkah will see a 45°C high and 28°C low.

PSAs-

#1- Businesses subject to excise tax must submit their March and April tax returns by 25 May through the Zakat, Tax, and Customs Authority (Zatca) website, according to a statement. Missing the deadline will apply a 5% late penalty on the unpaid tax for every 30 days of delay. Excise tax is imposed on products associated with health risks, including soft and energy drinks, and tobacco products.

#2- Employers and support workers have been given a six-month grace period to rectify the status of workers previously reported as absent, the Human Resources Ministry said in a statement. The initiative, processed through the Musaned platform, enables service transfers to new employers via automated procedures and excludes workers who became absent after the announcement.

IPO WATCH-

Budget carrier Flynas is due to announce its IPO indicative price range today, kicking off institutional bookbuilding through to Sunday, 18 May. The PIF-backed firm is taking a 30% stake to Tadawul’s main market in a hybrid offering of new and existing shares, with proceeds set to be split between funding fleet expansion, and partially cashing out selling shareholders.

Flynas is poised to become the region’s first airline to IPO in nearly two decades, and only the third carrier to list after Air Arabia and Jazeera Airways went public in the early-2000s. The low-cost airline, which secured regulatory approval last month, is now on track to beat Abu Dhabi’s Etihad Airways to market, after shelving plans for a 2018 listing.

ALSO HAPPENING TODAY- United Carton Industries’s two-day retail subscription window opens today, offering individual investors up to 20% of the 12 mn on offer at SAR 50 apiece. The packaging manufacturer is floating a 30% stake in a SAR 600 mn secondary offering.

DATA POINTS-

#1- The Kingdom’s current account balance fell y-o-y to a deficit of SAR 27.8 bn in 4Q 2024, down from a surplus of SAR 11.5 bn in the same quarter of the previous year, the report reads. However, the deficit narrowed slightly on a quarterly basis, down from a deficit of SAR 32.5 bn in the previous quarter.

Oil exports are dropping in tandem with a rise in non-oil exports: Oil exports are estimated to hit some SAR 195.9 bn during 4Q 2024, down 0.6% from the previous quarter, and down 13.3% on a y-o-y basis. Meanwhile, non-oil exports are projected to come in at SAR 80.4 bn during 4Q, up 2% on a quarterly basis, and by 16.9% y-o-y.

#2- The National Housing Company (NHC) sold over 16k housing units worth nearly SAR 15 bn during the first four months of 2025, a 101% increase from the same period last year, CEO Mohammad Albuty told Al Arabiya.

On recent real estate reforms, Al-Batty noted that lifting the land freeze north of Riyadh, along with plans to build 10k-40k housing units each year at prices below SAR 1.5k per sqm, will significantly increase housing supply. He added that amendments to the white land tax system will help mobilize idle land and redirect capital toward high-value sectors.

#3- Record public bus passengers in 1Q 2025 came at 23 mn across 15 cities, a 34% q-o-q growth, according to a post on X from the Transport General Authority (TGA). Riyadh buses carried over 15 mn passengers followed by Makkah (3 mn passengers) and Madinah (1.3 mn passengers).

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THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

Cooldown is the key word today in the global press, with some of the biggest armed (and trade) conflicts inching closer towards a resolution.

The White House is saying the two-day talks in Switzerland yielded a trade “deal” with China, with additional details to be announced today. Chinese officials aresaying the two sides reached an “important consensus” in Geneva, and are set to hold an economic dialogue forum.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he’s hoping to meet Vladimir Putin personally in Turkey on Thursday, following a televised statement by the Russian President that saw him call for the first direct talks between the two countries since early 2022 in Istanbul. The statement came after EU officials have joined Ukraine in pressuring for a 30-day ceasefire.

CLOSER TO HOME- Hamas announced yesterday it will release the last living US national held in Gaza, Edan Alexander, as part of efforts to secure a ceasefire, with sources expecting the release within 48 hours. Trump hailed the step on Truth Social as a necessary step to “end this brutal conflict.”

What to expect from Trump’s Gulf visit this week

US President Donald Trump will land in the Gulf tomorrow in a bid to drum up investment and expand trade with our part of the world. Agreements in investment, oil, defense, AI infrastructure, and nuclear power, are all in the cards when Trump starts his tour in Saudi Arabia tomorrow before heading on to the UAE and Qatar.

The swing through the region is set to see “a huge number of investment and trade [agreements] happening,” Arab News’ Faisal Abbas told CNBC, stressing that injections of capital should be a two-way street. A potential lifting of the 10% tariff on aluminum and steel could also be on the agenda, CNBC reported elsewhere. Gulf officials are actively looking to tie fresh investment and big purchases of US goods to preferential tariff treatment for exports from our region.

Sound familiar? The visit is basically a re-run of Trump’s first official international trip as president in 2017. Expect to hear talk of a USD 1 tn visit. White House officials appear to have quietly seeded to US media the idea that Trump will extract trade and investment pledges worth a combined USD 1 tn.

Expect tech and AI to be in sharp relief this week, with Elon Musk, Mark Zuckerberg, and OpenAI CEO Sam Altman among those expected to attend the investment summit in Riyadh on Tuesday, the New York Post reports. Representatives from BlackRock, Alphabet, and IBM will also be there.

Gulf leaders want to see regulatory approval for investments in the US put on the fast track. The US is planning to develop a fast-track process for screening FDI, with the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar reportedly in discussions to be included in the initiative.

ICYMI- Both Saudi Arabia and the UAE have pledged to invest heavily in the US to the tune of USD 600 bn for Saudi, and USD 1.4 tn for the UAE. The plan for the visit is to seal those investment agreements, with Trump saying a “tremendous amount of jobs will be created in those two or three days,” according to Reuters.

The itinerary:

Trump is expected in Riyadh tomorrow (Tuesday, 13 May), where he’ll meet with Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohamed bin Salman.
The Saudi-US Investment Forum will take place the same day, and it’s unclear whether Trump will be in attendance before heading to Qatar the same day;
On Wednesday, he lands in the UAE to wrap up the trip. Secretary of State Marco Rubio will then fly on to Turkey for a NATO meeting.

REMEMBER- The Trump administration is reportedly planning to ease the Biden administration’s restrictions on exports of advanced AI chips, introduced in January and set to take effect on May 15. The tiered system — which divided countries into three tiers that were allowed to receive unlimited, capped, or no exports — will reportedly be cancelled, and likely replaced with new, “simpler” rules aiming at handing the US more control over chips abroad.

IN CONTEXT: Did Washington just reach a trade agreement with China? Senior White House officials released a statement shared on X overnight headlined “US announces China trade deal in Geneva,” but stopped short of offering details, saying they would be released later today. The swing through the Gulf has largely been positioned in Washington as part of the White House’s drive to diversify trade ties away from China as Trump’s trade war brews.

Don’t expect Saudi to recognize Israel on Trump’s swing through the region. The US administration hopes to negotiate an expansion of the so-called Abraham Accords that Trump brokered in his first term, but pundits see no chance of that happening unless Israel winds down its war on Gaza. Bloomberg, CNBC, CNN, and Reuters have more. Riyadh has previously tied the issue to Tel Aviv giving Palestine a clear path to statehood.

Is Trump going to meet Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas? That’s the contention in at least one Israeli media outlet, which cites an unnamed Israeli source as saying bin Salman is brokering a sit-down between Trump and Abbas. The same report contends Trump could meet with Syrian leader Ahmed Al-Sharaa and Lebanon’s Joseph Aoun. Sources in the Palestinian Authority — cited by Haaretz — denied the report, saying that Abbas is in Russia and there are no plans he will head to Riyadh.

Riyadh is keen to make progress on a long-in-the-works defense and security cooperation pact that it has been working on since the Biden administration. The previous administration directly linked the pact to Riyadh’s recognition of Israel, wanted Saudi to be clear that it would limit the use of Chinese AI technology, and was seeking a promise that KSA would continue to demand USD payment for oil and not start accepting China’s RMB. Riyadh, in turn, wants US help building out a domestic nuclear power industry seen as critical to its energy diversification drive.

The UAE and the US have become closer allies over the past few years. The UAE is investing big in US tech and energy over the next decade following UAE National Security Advisor Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan’s visit to the US earlier this year. State AI investor MGX has already invested USD 2 bn into Binance using a Trump-linked stablecoin, and joining the AI Infrastructure Partnership, a platform it co-founded alongside Blackrock and Microsoft, which now also includes Nvidia and Elon Musk’s xAI. Meanwhile, Adnoc’s new investment arm XRG is pledging bns of investments in the US’ energy sector, including through USD 9 bn worth of acquisitions of natural gas assets.

What’s a Trump visit without a little bit of controversy? Western media is making plenty of hay about:

Trump’s plan to name the Gulf of Arabia the … Gulf of Arabia on US maps, where it’s presently referred to as the “Persian Gulf.” (Hardly a controversial notion in our part of the world).
Qatar is gifting The Donald a Boeing 747 that’s worth about USD 400 mn new. Trump will have the jet retrofitted to be used as Air Force One — and plans to take it into retirement with him for his personal use.

Aramco sees mixed 1Q results as performance dividend plunges

Saudi Aramco reported a 4.6% y-o-y drop in net income to SAR 97.54 bn (USD 26 bn) in 1Q 2024, according to both an earnings release (pdf) and Tadawul disclosure.

Better than expected: The result, weighed down by weaker oil prices amid global economic uncertainty, still exceeded analyst estimates by some SAR 3.4 bn, according to Asharq Business. Armaco’s net income also outperformed other rivals like BP (-50% y-o-y) and Shell (-28% y-o-y), according to the Financial Times.

Revenue missed the mark: Revenue inched up 0.9% y-o-y to SAR 405.7 bn (USD 108.2 bn), supported by higher volumes of gas, refined and chemical products, and traded crude oil, though lower prices weighed on performance. However, revenue came in slightly below expectations of SAR 409.74 bn for the quarter.

The first taste of the new dividend policy: Aramco’s board approved a SAR 80.1 bn (USD 21.4 bn) dividend for 1Q 2025, at SAR 0.3312 per share. This includes a base dividend of SAR 79.3 bn (USD 21.1 bn) at SAR 0.3278 per share and a performance-linked dividend of SAR 0.82 bn (USD 0.22 bn) at SAR 0.0034 per share. The payout will be distributed on 29 May.

REMEMBER- Aramco slashed its total 2025 dividend policy by about a third to USD 85.4 bn down from USD 124.2 bn, citing financial pressures from high payouts and lower oil prices.

Dividends breakup: Total dividend payout dropped 31.1% from USD 31 bn a year earlier due to the reduced performance component. The sharp 98% y-o-y drop in the performance-linked dividend reflects tighter free cash flow — down 15.8% y-o-y to USD 19.2 bn — as lower oil prices and rising costs weighed on Aramco’s financial flexibility, Reuters reports. Meanwhile, the base dividend saw a modest 4.2% y-o-y uptick, according to CNBC.

What the pundits said: “The sharp fall in the oil price makes the financing outlook for both the fiscal shortfall and Vision 2030 significantly more challenging,” Malik told Reuters. She added that weaker Aramco profits were already reflected in a wider budget deficit for the first quarter.

Tariffs and Opec hikes haven’t hit the numbers yet: The impact of Trump's April tariffs and Opec+’s decision to boost oil output by 411k barrels per day were not reflected in Aramco's first-quarter results. With April’s oil prices sliding to their lowest level in four years at USD 60 a barrel, both Aramco and the government are likely to face further challenges, despite the increase in production.

Market reax: Aramco’s shares inched up 0.64% to SAR 25, despite a 10.9% decline year-to-date.

Steady as she goes: CEO Amin Nasser described Aramco’s financial performance as “robust,” crediting the company’s operational resilience and low-cost advantage amid global economic uncertainty and softer oil prices. He reaffirmed Aramco’s long-term growth strategy across upstream, downstream, and new energy sectors, including gas, hydrogen, and carbon capture.

Looking ahead: Aramco has capital investments of USD 52-58 bn slated for 2025, with Nasser expecting the launch of the Jafurah gas field to take place later in the year, along with expanding LNG and petrochemical projects.

Aramco expects global oil demand to surpass last year’s “historic” levels, Asharq Business quotes CFO Ziad Al Murshed as saying. Aramco has 3 mn barrels per day of spare capacity in its back pocket — with each mn capable of adding SAR 43 bn to annual income, Al Murshed told Al Ekhbariya.

Industrial production up 2% y-o-y in March

The industrial production index (IPI) rose 2% y-o-y in March, continuing its growth trajectory supported by an increase in manufacturing activity and water supply, sewage, and waste management, according to preliminary data (pdf) by the General Authority for Statistics (Gastat).

The main drivers: The increase in the IPI was largely due to a 5.1% rise in manufacturing activity, despite a slight 0.2% dip in mining and quarrying.

The mining and quarrying activity sub-index decreased by 0.2% y-o-y during the month, due to a marginal slowdown in oil production to 8.96 mn barrels per day (bbl/d), down from 8.97 mn bbl/d in March 2024.

The manufacturing sub-index was up 5.1% y-o-y, primarily driven by growth in the manufacturing of chemical products (14.3%) and food products (6.9%).

MEANWHILE- The non-oil activities index rose 5.6% y-o-y in March, while the oil activities index increased by 0.5%.

IN CONTEXT- Non-oil business activity in the Kingdom slowed its expansion slightly in March. The seasonally adjusted headline figure came in at 58.1 in March, dipping down from February’s reading of 58.4, as new business growth continued to increase, albeit at its slowest rate since October 2024.

Utilities showed mixed performance: The sub-index for electricity, gas, steam, and air conditioning supply activity decreased 0.9% on an annual basis (down 7.7% m-o-m), while the sub-index for water supply, sewerage, and waste management and remediation activities increased by 15% y-o-y (up 3.7% m-o-m).

SMC sets IPO price range at SAR 24-25 per share

Specialized Medical Company (SMC)’s institutional offering sold out within hours of opening yesterday, with demand clearing the book across the full price range, Bloomberg reports, citing terms it has seen. The private healthcare provider is guiding on a price range of SAR 24-25 per share for its main market IPO, which will see it put a a 30% stake on offer in a secondary share sale, it said in a statement (pdf).

Proceeds + market cap: At the top of the range, the IPO could raise up to SAR 1.9 bn (USD 500 mn) for selling shareholders, giving the Riyadh-based private healthcare provider a market cap of SAR 6.3 bn (USD 1.7 bn) at listing.

The IPO is poised to be the second-largest on the main market so far this year — landing between Umm Al Qura for Development’s SAR 2 bn IPO in March and Almoosa Health’s SAR 1.7 bn debut in January.

What’s next: Institutions have until Thursday, 15 May to submit their bids, during which they can book up to 12.5 mn shares each, with the minimum limit set at 100k. The bookbuilding process will gauge institutional appetite within that range, with the final price set to be determined after the window closes later this week. A two-day retail subscription window will open on Wednesday, 28 May, for 20% of the shares on offer provided there is sufficient demand with the final allocation slated for Wednesday, 4 June.

ADVISORS- Our friends at EFG Hermes are quarterbacking the transaction as joint financial advisors, underwriters, and bookrunners, alongside SNB Capital. SNB Capital is also serving as lead manager, with White & Case providing counsel to the issuer. Receiving agents include Al Rajhi Capital, BSF Capital, Alinma Investment, and Riyad Capital, among others.

OTHER IPOs IN THE PIPELINE-

Flynas is taking a 30% stake to market, and is set to announce the price range today;
United Carton Industries’ IPO two-day retail subscription window opens today;
Companies that have yet to move to the step beyond receiving CMA approval include: Ejada Systems, Marketing Home Group, Sport Clubs Company, and Dar Al Majed ;
Companies that tapped banks for potential IPOs include: The PIF’s Saudi Global Ports, Tabreed District Cooling, Medical procurement firm Nupco, Riyad Capital, and BNPL platform Tabby ;
Al Othaim Investment’s CEO said the company plans to offer a 30% on Tadawul this year;
F&B players Barns, Half Million, Deemah and Hashi Bashi are said to be sounding out banks for potential debuts on the main market;
Almosafer is preparing for a public listing on Tadawul by late 2025 or early 2026;
PIF-backed CloudKitchens is reportedly eyeing an IPO in the Kingdom or the UAE (or both).

SNB extends SAR 5.8 bn facility to Areeb Capital, launches AT1 sukuk issuance

Real estate financing form Areeb Capital secured a SAR 5.8 bn Shariah-compliant facility from the Saudi National Bank (SNB) to support the expansion of its real estate investment portfolio, it said in a post on LinkedIn. No further details were immediately available.

ICYMI- Areeb purchased a 32 mn sqm plot in Dammam for SAR 12 bn to develop a multi-use project last September, which was one of the Eastern Province’s largest real estate acquisitions.

ALSO FROM SNB- The bank kicked off an SAR-denominated additionaltier-one (AT1) sukuk issuance yesterday, it said in a filing to Tadawul. The offer amount and price are subject to market conditions. Eligible investors have until year-end to subscribe to a minimum of SAR 1 mn worth of sukuk.

SOUND SMART- Additional AT1 sukuk are Shariah-compliant bonds that banks issue to boost their capital. This type of sukuk doesn’t have a set maturity date — meaning they can last forever unless the bank decides to buy them back.

ADVISORS- SNB Capital is acting as the sole bookrunner, lead arranger, and lead manager on the transaction.

Net foreign assets in the banking sector reach SAR 1.51 tn in 1Q 2025

Net foreign assets in the Kingdom’s banking sector fell by just under 0.5% in 1Q 2025, reaching a surplus of SAR 1.51 tn by the end of March, according to the Saudi Central Bank’s (Sama) latest monthly statistical bulletin (pdf). On a monthly basis, the figure recorded at the end of March represented the first monthly rise in Saudi banks’ net foreign assets in eight months — however, the figure still remains the second lowest recorded in the last twelve months, representing a decrease of just over 9% y-o-y.

The monthly rise was driven by a jump in Sama’s foreign assets, which rose to just under SAR 1.62 tn by the end of the month, making up the bulk of the sector’s external position. This offset a continued decline in commercial banks’ foreign assets, which fell to a SAR 104.1 bn deficit, down from a deficit of SAR 52.5 bn in February.

MEANWHILE- Bank credit across all segments increased by 16.3% y-o-y to SAR 3.10 tn by the end of March. Personal loans once again accounted for the lion’s share of all credit handed out by local banks during the month, followed by corporate credit to the real estate sector, and financial and ins. activities.

Residential mortgages financed by banks also reached just under SAR 27.8 bn during 1Q 2025, up 25.6% y-o-y, with a total of nearly 36.3k contracts. This includes SAR 17.4 bn for houses, SAR 9 bn for apartments, and SAR 1.3 bn for land contracts.

ALSO- Broad money supply (M3) grew 8.2% y-o-y to SAR 3.05 tn by the end of 1Q 2025. Demand deposits (47.8%) topped the list of currency supply components, followed by time and savings deposits (35.2%), other quasi-cash deposits (8.7%), and banknotes in circulation outside banks (8.2%). Meanwhile, total liabilities reached SAR 5.33 tn, clocking a 7.2% y-o-y increase.

SOUND SMART- M3 is the broadest measure of money supply in a given economy. It includes cash, current accounts, and other money that can be quickly mobilized (what econ-nerds call M2) as well as large time deposits, institutional money market funds, short-term repurchase agreements, and larger liquid funds.

On the investment front: Government bonds rose for the ninth consecutive month to SAR 612.6 bn, up 11.2% y-o-y, representing 73.8% of total public sector liabilities. At the same time, bank credit to public institutions increased to SAR 217.3 bn in 1Q 2025, up 38% from the same period of the previous year.

An avalanche of earnings featuring Care, Seera Group Holding, and more

CARE-

Our friends at National Medical Care saw net income rise 5% y-o-y to SAR 85.4 mn in 1Q 2025, supported by operational efficiencies and reversals in expected credit losses, according to an earnings release (pdf).

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Revenue grew 29.1% y-o-y to SAR 385.3 mn during the quarter, driven by a 37% rise in patients volume and the full integration of recently acquired Al Salam Hospital, in addition to the contributions from partners GOSI, the Health Ministry, and Prince Sultan Military Medical city. The growth managed to offset the expected negative impact of the Ramadan season on patients volume.

Care by numbers: Patient count increased 37% y-o-y to 227.2k in 1Q, pushed up by a rising number of inpatients and outpatients as well as the full integration of new branches. Meanwhile, capacity has risen 24% to some 1.2k beds — Al Salam Hospital added 100 beds — while occupancy rate rose by 15.9 percentage points y-o-y to 80.9% during the quarter.

SEERA GROUP HOLDING-

Homegrown travel giant Seera Group Holding saw its net income fall 13.1% y-o-y to SAR 53 mn in 1Q 2025, which included a temporary gain from Almosafer’s Hajj & Umrah business and losses from Portman acquisition, it said in an earnings release (pdf). Adjusted earnings fell 8% y-o-y, mainly due to Portman’s weaker performance, though the company expects improvements as operational synergies take effect.

MEANWHILE- Revenue inched up 2.4% y-o-y to SAR 1.1 bn, driven by growth across hospitality (up 11% y-o-y), Portman (up 8% y-o-y), and Lumi (up 7% y-o-y), with Almosafer posting a modest 1% y-o-y uptick.

ABDULLAH AL OTHAIM MARKETS-

Abdullah Al Othaim Markets posted a 33.9% y-o-y drop in net income to SAR 76.4 mn in 1Q 2025, as profit margins came under pressure from intensive Ramadan marketing, a SAR 9.5 mn rise in lease financing costs, and a SAR 3.8 mn increase in borrowing expenses, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul. However, revenue was up 3.1% y-o-y to SAR 3.13 bn, supported by higher sales from both existing and new stores.

ALSO- The company’s BoD nodded to a SAR 99 mn dividend distribution for 1Q 2025 at SAR 0.11 per share, with payouts scheduled for 25 June, it said in a separate disclosure to Tadawul.

SAUDI CHEMICAL-

Saudi Chemical Co. saw its net income decrease by 9.9% y-o-y to SAR 82.3 mn in 1Q 2025, weighed down by an increase in finance costs, revaluation for derivative financial instruments, and higher zakat and tax provisions, according to a disclosure to Tadawul. Meanwhile, revenue slid slightly by 0.1% y-o-y to SAR 1.64 bn, due to a decrease in sales volumes.

AL-RAJHI TAKAFUL-

Al-Rajhi Company for Cooperative Ins. (Al Rajhi Takaful) reported a 18.5% y-o-y fall in net income to SAR 90.8 mn in 1Q 2025, attributed to lower ins. service results and a decline in total investment income, according to a disclosure to Tadawul. Meanwhile, ins. revenues decreased 7.4% y-o-y to SAR 1.21 bn due to lower business volume.

ALMUNAJEM FOODS CO.

Almunajem Foods Co. reported a 64.9% y-o-y decrease in net income to SAR 40 mn in 1Q 2025, burdened by a 31.9% decrease in gross profit, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul. Revenue declined by 0.2% y-o-y to SAR 901.5 mn on account of lower selling prices for red and white meat, despite increased sales volumes across most categories.

DALLAH HEALTHCARE-

Dallah Healthcare Co. recorded a 30.4% y-o-y rise in net income to SAR 155.6 mn in 1Q 2025, pushed up by a non-recurring gain of SAR 51 mn from an in-kind contribution of lands to a real estate fund, according to a disclosure to Tadawul. Likewise, revenue rose by 6.2% y-o-y to SAR 832.8 mn on the back of increased operational capacity and patient numbers.

WALAA COOPERATIVE INS-

Walaa Cooperative Ins. Co. turned red with a net loss of SAR 67.9 mn y-o-y in 1Q 2025, due to higher net ins. service losses by the medical and motor segments, according to disclosure to Tadawul. However, the property, energy, and P&C other segments pushed ins. revenues up by 2.8% y-o-y to SAR 788.2 mn.

JABAL OMAR DEVELOPMENT CO.-

Jabal Omar Development Co. posted a 4,973% jump in net income higher y-o-y amounting to SAR 945.9 mn in 1Q 2025, mainly due to the recognition of other income generated by a SAR 918 mn land sale, according to a disclosure to Tadawul. Meanwhile, revenue grew by 26.1% y-o-y to SAR 747.7 mn, fed by a 54% rise in hotel revenues related to the Ramadan season and the launch of new hotel towers.

SAUDI GROUND SERVICES-

Saudi Ground Services Co. (SGS) reported a 37.2% y-o-y increase in net income to SAR 97.6 mn in 1Q 2025, supported by lower revenue costs and higher gross and operating profits, according to a disclosure to Tadawul. Revenue inched up at a small pace by 2.8% y-o-y to SAR 671.5 mn, impacted by a rise in both domestic and international flight operations during Ramadan season.

UMM AL QURA FOR DEVELOPMENT-

Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction Co. saw a significant jump in net income y-o-y to SAR 159.7 mn in 1Q 2025, according to an earnings release (pdf). The increase was attributed to land sales pushing up revenue by 172.2% y-o-y to SAR 501.9 mn.

Ardco exits Tanal JV, transfers 69.4% stake to Sumou Holding

M&A WATCH-

#1- Riyadh Development Company (Ardco) exited the JV Tanal for Development and Real Estate Investment, after signing a waiver agreement to transfer its capital share (69.4%) to Sumou Holding, according to a disclosure to Tadawul. In exchange, Ardco retrieved its share in Tanal’s capital (SAR 69.4k) in addition to SAR 20.8k in statutory reserves after collecting some SAR 819 mn in profits during the partnership.

About Tanal for Development and Real Estate Development: The JV was established with a capital of SAR 100k in 2019 as a Special Purpose Vehicle to invest in the infrastructure development of a 3 mn sqm land plot in Al Rimal district in Riyadh.

#2- Intelligent Oud (iOud) signed a six-month, non-binding MoU with Afaq Food Fund to acquire Thannah Trading via a share swap on Saturday, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul. The Nomu-listed fragrance manufacturer and the Afaq Financial Company managed investment fund agreed to tap Amwal Financial as a financial advisor and lead manager for a transaction that aims to expand the presence of iOud in the hospitality sector. No further details of the acquisition were disclosed.

DISPUTE WATCH-

Al Baha files for SAR 100 mn recovery against ex-board members: Al Baha Investment and Development has filed a SAR 100 mn compensation claim with the Capital Market Authority and the Securities Disputes Resolution Committee against former board members who served between February 2010 and February 2013, over a disputed asset sale that led to financial losses and a stock suspension for Al Baha, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul. The recovery includes the reversal of a SAR 84 mn provision and SAR 16 mn in damages. Legal outcomes remain uncertain at this time.

DATA-

Saudi Statistician program re-launched for second edition, the General Authority for Statistics (Gastat) said in a statement. The initiative aims to fund talented Saudis for higher studies in statistics, applied statistics, and data science at top international universities. Accepted candidates will have basic training in statistical programming and personal and technical skills then undergo a job rotation before moving on to academic scholarships.

What are investors doing to hedge against fresh shocks?

After a bumpy April, markets are looking steadier, though derivatives strategists aren’t convinced the calm will hold, Bloomberg writes. Many believe the broader trend of low volatility will continue, thanks to consistent option-selling by income-generating ETFs — though brief intraday shocks like the one triggered by April’s tariff announcement are expected to remain part of the landscape.

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Hedging in a two-speed market: With markets in this split state — largely stable but still prone to sudden jolts — investors are weighing two very different hedging approaches. Some are sticking with short-term trades that make money from sharp intraday swings, while others are shifting to longer-dated contracts in anticipation of a more drawn-out downturn. “While we can’t entirely rule out a sudden equity market shock, we expect a more gradual repricing driven by weaker forward guidance — in essence, a low-volatility bear market,” Antoine Bracq, head of advisory at Lighthouse Canton, told Bloomberg.

Traders are adjusting to the “Trump put”: Adding to the complexity is the growing view that future tariff-related headlines may carry less punch, given that US President Donald Trump has shown a tendency to soften his tone quickly when markets react negatively — particularly when the bond market starts flashing warning signs. Bracq says shorting futures might be the most effective hedge in theory, but timing such trades is tricky. “Because of this, we see a more practical approach in exploiting the current levels of implied volatility.”

Some hedge funds are turning to less traditional tools, like volatility knock-out (VKO) puts. These over-the-counter instrument provides protection against downward moves but expire worthless if realized volatility crosses a certain threshold. VKOs are around 40-50% cheaper than standard puts, but they offer little to no protection in the event of a panic-driven selloff.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asian markets are all in the green in early trading this morning, following the news of a trade deal between the US and China. Japan’s Nikkei is up 0.2%, the Shanghai Composite is looking at gains of 0.8%, the Hang Seng is up 1.5%, and the Kospi is up 0.6%.

TASI	11,347	-0.2% (YTD: -5.7%)
MSCI Tadawul 30	1,452	0.0% (YTD: -3.8%)
NomuC	27,423	-1.8% (YTD: -12.9%)
USD : SAR (SAMA)	USD 3.75 Sell	USD 3.75 Buy
Interest rates	5.0% repo	4.5% reverse repo
EGX30	31,428	-1.1% (YTD: +5.7%)
ADX	9,626	-0.1% (YTD: +2.2%)
DFM	5,313	0.0% (YTD: +3.0%)
S&P 500	5,660	-0.1% (YTD: -3.8%)
FTSE 100	8,555	+0.3% (YTD: +4.7%)
Euro Stoxx 50	5,310	+0.4% (YTD: +8.6%)
Brent crude	USD 63.91	+1.7%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 3.80	+5.7%
Gold	USD 3,344	+1.2%
BTC	USD 104,154	+0.4% (YTD: +11.5%)
Sukuk/bond market index	914.67	+0.4% (YTD: +1.4%)
S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk	143.41	-0.1% (YTD: +2.5%)
VIX (Fear gauge)	21.90	-2.6% (YTD: +26.2%)

THE CLOSING BELL: TADAWUL-

The TASI fell 0.2% yesterday on turnover of SAR 3.3 bn. The index is down 5.7% YTD.

In the green: SHL (+8.7%), Sico Saudi Reit (+6.5%) and Care (+4.9%).

In the red: MESC (-8.3%), Cenomi Retail (-6.6%) and Chemical (-6.5%).

THE CLOSING BELL: NOMU-

The NomuC fell 1.8% yesterday on turnover of SAR 61.0 mn. The index is down 12.9% YTD.

In the green: NBM (+8.2%), Tharwah (+7.4%) and CMCER (+7.1%).

In the red: Balady (-30.0%), Future Care (-12.3%) and Osool And Bakheet (-8.5%).

CORPORATE ACTIONS-

Jarir Marketing Company’s BoD approved a SAR 228 mn dividend payout for 1Q 2025 at SAR 0.19 per share, with distribution set for May 21, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul.

CALENDAR

MAY

Second week of May: World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) Global Awards 2025 announces finalists.

11-13 May (Sunday-Tuesday): Future Hospitality Summit, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah, Riyadh.

12-14 May (Monday-Wednesday): 2025 Saudi Giga projects Summit, Riyadh.

12-14 May (Monday-Wednesday): Saudi Food Show 2025, Riyadh Front Exhibition and Conference Centre, Riyadh.

12-15 May (Monday-Thursday): Riyadh International Industry Week, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

26-29 May (Monday-Thursday): Hawyia Auctions Nomu IPO offering period.

23 May (Friday): Guns N’ Roses Show, Riyadh.

29 May (Thursday): 2024-2025 academic year ends.

30 May (Friday) King’s Cup final (Al-Ittihad vs Al-Qadisiyah), Al-Inma Stadium, King Abdullah Sports City, Jeddah.

JUNE

4-9 June (Wednesday-Monday): Hajj.

6-10 June (Friday-Tuesday): Eid Al Adha.

17-18 June (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting and Summary of Economic Projections.

24-25 June (Tuesday-Wednesday): Tech-ecO-System Summit (ToSS), Riyadh.

30 June (Monday): Cancellation of Fines and Exemption of Financial Penalties Initiative by the Zakat, Tax and Customs Authority (Zatca) deadline.

JULY

July (Second week): World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) Global Awards 2025 awards ceremony, Geneva.

7 July-24 August (Monday-Sunday): Esports World Cup, Riyadh.

29-30 July (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting.

31 July (Thursday): Deadline for companies with SAR 2.5 mn or more in 2022/2023 revenues to integrate e-invoicing solutions with Fatoora.

AUGUST

7 July-24 August (Monday-Sunday): Esports World Cup, Riyadh.

5-17 August (Tuesday-Sunday): 2025 Fiba Asia Cup, Jeddah.

SEPTEMBER

15-17 September (Monday-Wednesday): Money 20/20 Middle East, Riyadh.

17-18 September (Wednesday-Thursday): US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting and Summary of Economic Projections.

23 September (Tuesday): Saudi National Day.

OCTOBER

1-3 October (Wednesday-Friday): Saudi Green Building Forum, Riyadh.

7-8 October (Tuesday-Wednesday): Global EV & Mobility Technology (GEMTECH) Forum, Riyadh.

17 October (Friday): Saudization for private healthcare roles enters its second phase.

22-23 October (Wednesday-Thursday): Private Capital Forum, Riyadh.

25-27 December (Saturday-Monday): The Fortune Global Forum 2025, Riyadh.

28-29 October (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting.

NOVEMBER

3-9 November (Monday- Sunday): WTA Tour Finals, Riyadh.

23-26 November (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Food Exhibition and Conference, Riyadh.

24-26 November (Monday-Wednesday) The World Advanced Manufacturing & Logistics Saudi Expo, Riyadh.

27-30 November (Thursday-Sunday): World Rally Championship Saudi Arabia 2025, Jeddah.

30 November (Sunday): Zatca 21st E-invocing integration wave deadline.

DECEMBER

1-4 December (Monday-Thursday): International Conference on Nuclear and Radiological Emergencies, Riyadh.

1-4 December (Monday-Thursday): 61st ISOCARP World Planning Congress, Riyadh.

9-10 December (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Open Market Committee meeting and Summary of Economic Projections.

31 December (Wednesday): Zatca 22st E-invoicing integration wave deadline.

2026

UN Trade and Development Global Supply Chain Forum to take place in Saudi Arabia.

8-12 February (Sunday-Thursday): World Defense Show, Riyadh.

26-29 October (Monday-Thursday): World Energy Congress, Riyadh.

2027

The World Water Forum takes place in Riyadh.

The Ocean Race finishes in Amaala on the Red Sea.

Riyadh-Kudmi transmission line to be completed.

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