Testing the waters

1

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

War leaves agreements in limbo as Gulf investors weigh risk

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. It’s a relatively slow Monday morning, with the exception of Dar Al Balad looking to test the waters and market appetite with its small-cap IPO. The company’s books are now opening, defying the prevailing logic that the 2Q window for new listings in regional markets is effectively closed.

Meet EnterpriseAM MENA+, our new flagship newsletter covering the flows of capital, people, and ideas across the Middle East — and beyond it.

MENA+ covers AI and tech — and geopolitics, the war for talent, which BSD is on top (and who's gunning for them), the changing energy economy, new corridors to India and China, and much, much more.

What’s with the “+” in MENA+? We think one of the most powerful stories in the region is the *export* of ideas and capital not just to neighboring regions (Asia, the Stans) but to international financial centers. MENA countries are jockeying for position in the new global economy now taking shape, and we’re going to shape that conversation.

Tap or click here to get your own copy delivered to your inbox every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday at 12pm UAE | 11am KSA | 11am Egypt.

Watch this space

M&A WATCH — Paramount-Skydance takeover of Warner Bros. moves forward: Warner Bros. Discovery shareholders greenlit the company’s USD 110 bn merger with Paramount-Skydance last week, according to a statement. The shareholder approval did not extend to the executive pay structures that could see Warner Bros. CEO David Zaslav land USD 887 mn when the agreement closes.

IN CONTEXT- The merger was reportedly backed by some USD 24 bn in commitments from the Public Investment Fund and other GCC sovereign wealth funds that are anchoring the capital-intensive takeover. However, the pen hasn’t been put to paper yet.

Data point

USD 106 bn — that’s the value of Gulf-backed transactions across North America and Europe currently in limbo since the war forced investors in the region to revisit their strategies, according to Pitchbook data cited by the Financial Times.

Rising defense spending and energy disruption risks are pushing governments to prioritize “domestic investment, defense industrial capacity, and food security” over assets like venture capital or entertainment, says Ana Nacvalovaite, SWFs specialist at Oxford University’s Kellogg College.

Still, the mega-M&A is not dead: High-profile transactions like the USD 110 bn Paramount-Skydance and the USD 55 bn Electronic Arts takeovers reportedly remain on track.

IN CONTEXT- Six of the world’s 10 heftiest SWFs are based in our part of the world, controlling nearly USD 5 tn in assets. Even marginal shifts in their allocation can filter through to global M&A pipelines that depend on their anchor investments.

Sports

The WWE Night of Champions will take place in Riyadh on 27 June as planned, Wrestling Inc reports, citing a company announcement. The show continues WWE’s partnership with the Kingdom after the Night of Champions 2025 in Riyadh.

ALSO- Riyadh will host WrestleMania 43 in 2027 as part of the Riyadh Season, marking the first time WWE’s biggest show will be held outside North America. The event will be organized in collaboration with the General Entertainment Authority.

***You’re reading EnterpriseAM Saudi, your essential daily roundup of business, economics, and must-read news about Saudi, delivered straight to your inbox. We’re out Sunday through Thursday by 7am Riyadh time.

EnterpriseAM Saudi is available without charge thanks to the generous support of our friends at Tas’heel and Hassan Allam Properties.

Want to send us a story idea, request coverage, ask for a correction, or otherwise get in touch? Reach out to us on saudi@enterpriseAM.com.

DID YOU KNOW that we also cover Egypt, the UAE, the MENA logistics industry, and the MENA <> India corridor?

Were you forwarded this email? Tap or click here to get your own copy of EnterpriseAM Saudi delivered every weekday.
***

The big story abroad

While the latest developments from yesterday’s shooting at the White House correspondents’ dinner are dominating the front pages, a few other stories have caught our attention:

Our daily update on ceasefire negotiations: After the latest round of discussions between the US and Iran fell through, US President Donald Trump appears to have left the ball in Tehran’s court, saying Iran can reach out by phone to continue negotiations.

And in markets: Bullish sentiment over AI appears to have pushed equities to record highs. Since the outbreak of the regional war, 82 stocks, most of which are tied to the AI boom, have posted gains above 10%, which the Wall Street Journal attributed to investor confidence in data-center construction and infrastructure providers like Nvidia.

And speaking of AI: According to new reports, AI may end up costing businesses more than human labor, with computing costs exceeding salaries in some cases. Firms like Uber are seeing AI costs skyrocket, with some estimates placing global IT spending at USD 6.3 tn in 2026 — a 13% y-o-y jump.

In the (shrinking?) world of human achievement, Kenyan athlete Sabastian Sawe made history yesterday as the first runner to ever finish a competitive marathon in under two hours.

Circle your calendar

The Esports Nations Cup is being held in Riyadh from 2-29 November. The tournament — considered the largest national-team event in the sector’s history — will see 32 nations compete in League of Legends for a USD 1.5 bn prize, alongside other games.

Testing the waters

Dar Al Balad is challenging the prevailing view that 1H 2026 is a write-off for IPOs. The IT services outfit is kicking off the bookbuilding process for its small-cap IPO on Tadawul’s main market, guiding on a narrow price range of SAR 9.25-9.75 per share, according to a bourse filing (pdf). The seller, Dar Al Balad Commercial Company, is offloading a 30% stake (equivalent to 21 mn shares).

Proceeds + market cap: The offering, which consists entirely of secondary shares, will see the firm raise up to SAR 204.75 mn in proceeds — slightly below earlier expectations of a USD 75 mn IPO (SAR 281.31 mn) — valuing the company at SAR 682.5 mn at listing by our math.

The move makes Dar Al Balad the first regional issuer to brave a war-clouded market, despite the predominant sentiment being that fresh paper would only be seen in the back half of the year. Senior investment banker Mustafa Fahim recently told EnterpriseAM that most issuers are retreating to 2H to avoid the valuation haircut caused by spiked risk premiums. Ubhar Capital research head Tahir Abbas also told us that the risk of pulled or weak IPOs is still real even post-ceasefire.

What to watch: If book-building clears at the top of the range by its 30 April close, it will signal that other IPO-hopefuls can still safely tap Saudi markets even in times of geopolitical uncertainty.

REFRESHER- Dar Al Balad received CMA approval in December and is likely racing to list before its six-month approval window expires in June. The company, founded by former Sabic vice chairman Ibrahim Bin Salamah, reported a 2025 revenue of SAR 315 mn (up 30%) and net income of SAR 51 mn.

ADVISORS- AlJazira Capital is quarterbacking the transaction as financial advisor, lead manager, and underwriter. It is also acting as joint bookrunner alongside Emirates NBD. Baker McKenzie is counsel.

Still in the lead

Saudi Arabia remained the GCC’s biggest debt issuer in 1Q 2026, raising USD 32.54 bn across 42 issuances, according to the Kuwait Financial Center’s (Markaz) fixed income report for the quarter. The Kingdom’s tally was up 3.1% y-o-y during the quarter and accounted for 59.1% of the USD 55.04 bn raised across 95 transactions in the region during the quarter.

Across the region, government issuances accounted for the largest share of transactions (37.2%), raising USD 20.46 bn from 12 issuances. Coming in a close second is issuances from the financial sector, with 64 issuances worth a combined USD 19.45 bn. Despite accounting for 35.3% of total issuances, that value dropped 14.0% y-o-y. Energy followed at USD 5.52 bn from six issuances (a 10.0% share), while all other sectors together accounted for 17.5% of issuances during the quarter.

The quarter was dominated by short-term issuances, which accounted for 41.8% of total volume at USD 23.01 bn from 58 transactions. Mid-term issuances (5-10 years) followed with USD 17.24 bn across 21 transactions, accounting for 31.3% of the total. Long-term paper carrying tenors of 10-30 years trailed with 16.4% of the volume, bringing in USD 9.0 bn from five issuances, and a single ultra-long bond (30+ years) raised USD 1 bn. Perpetuals also gained ground in both size and count, rising to USD 4.79 bn across 10 issuances.

Large-cap issuances of USD 1 bn or more dominated the GCC primary market during the quarter, accounting for nearly two-thirds of total issuance volume at USD 33.33 bn from 20 transactions. Mid-sized issuances between USD 500 mn and USD 1 bn followed at USD 15.37 bn from 24 issuances. The most active slice by count was again the sub-USD 100 mn category, where 31 smaller transactions raised a combined USD 1 bn.

Petro Rabigh ends loss streak

Earnings season is in full swing, with Petro Rabigh, Yanbu National Petrochemical, Saudi Kayan Petrochemical, and more out with their 1Q 2026 earnings.

Petro Rabigh

Petro Rabigh swung into the black for the first time in four years, posting a net income of SAR 1.5 bn in 1Q 2026 compared to a SAR 691 mn loss a year earlier, it said in a Tadawul disclosure. The firm’s revenue rose 32.4% y-o-y to SAR 14.9 bn during the quarter. The turnaround was driven by higher sales of refined and petrochemical products and a late-quarter uplift in refined product prices amid tighter supply-demand conditions and market volatility. Lower financing costs further supported the results.

The company’s accumulated losses also fell below the 20% threshold to 14.8% of share capital, or SAR 2.5 bn, following a capital reduction, according to a separate disclosure. Share capital was cut to SAR 16.7 bn from SAR 22 bn, with the nominal value of Class A ordinary shares reduced to SAR 6.85 from SAR 10, resulting in a SAR 5.3 bn write-off to partially offset accumulated losses.

Yansab

Yanbu National Petrochemical Co. (Yansab) recorded an 18.2% y-o-y drop in net income to SAR 11.2 mn in 1Q 2026, well below Bloomberg analyst expectations of SAR 42.6 mn. Weaker product pricing, lower sales volumes, and scheduled plant maintenance shutdowns underpinned the decline. Revenue also fell 12.7% y-o-y to SAR 1.3 bn over the same period.

Saudi Kayan

Saudi Kayan Petrochemical saw its net loss narrow 20.1% y-o-y in 1Q 2026 to SAR 614.6 mn, driven by lower raw material costs and reduced general and administrative expenses. Meanwhile, revenue declined 27.8% y-o-y to SAR 1.5 bn, weighed down by a dip in prices and lower sales volumes.

Sadafco

Saudia Dairy and Foodstuff Co.’s (Sadafco) net income fell around 35% y-o-y in 1Q 2026 to SAR 82 mn, it said in a Tadawul disclosure. Management attributed the drop to higher raw material and fuel costs and rising inflation. Its topline dropped around 2.6% y-o-y to SAR 737.6 mn for the same period, owing to a decline in sales stemming from price corrections.

Arabian Cement

Arabian Cement Company’s net income rose 153.8% y-o-y in 1Q 2026 to SAR 59.9 mn, thanks to higher selling and export volumes and lower depreciation costs, according to a Tadawul disclosure. Meanwhile, revenues rose around 5% y-o-y to SAR 250.2 mn in the same period.

Bank Albilad is getting a new CEO

Bank Albilad tapped Bashaar Al Qunaibit as its new CEO, effective 1 June, according to a Tadawul filing. Al Qunaibit will take over from Abdulaziz Al Onaizan (LinkedIn), who is stepping down to take on another unspecified role at the bank. Al Qunaibit brings more than 25 years of financial and banking experience, most recently serving as Bank Albilad’s senior executive vice president of business.

Hassan Allam + AlBawani to work on USD 490 mn Museum of Contemporary Art

Hassan Allam, AlBawani JV lands USD 490 mn contract for museum in Diriyah

A JV between Hassan Allam Construction Saudi Arabia and AlBawani Holding Company landed a USD 490 mn contract for the construction of the Saudi Arabia Museum of Contemporary Art, according to a statement (pdf). The museum will be built in Diriyah. No details were provided on the timeline for the project.

Al Ramz, SNB Capital to roll out SAR 650 mn Riyadh real estate fund

Al Ramz Real Estate Company and SNB Capital agreed to establish a shariah-compliant real estate investment fund with a target size of SAR 650 mn, according to a Tadawul disclosure. The fund will be used to develop the Ramz Al Raed residential project in Riyadh’s Al Raed district, with SNB Capital serving as fund manager and Al Ramz as unitholder, developer, and marketer.

Alinma Bank eyes AT1 sukuk to strengthen capital base

Alinma Bank plans to issue SAR-denominated additional tier 1 (AT1) capital sukuk under its SAR 5 bn AT1 sukuk program to strengthen its capital base, according to a Tadawul disclosure. The size and timing of the issuance remain subject to market conditions.

ADVISORS- Alinma Capital and HSBC Saudi Arabia were appointed as joint lead managers for the potential private placement.

Not another 2008

Point: Private credit funds are under pressure from higher borrowing costs and transparency concerns.

Counter-point: These funds’ conservative leverage and distinct capital structure provide a buffer that limits the risk of a systemic collapse. At least that’s what Amit Seru, senior fellow at the Hoover Institution and professor of finance at Stanford’s Graduate School of Business argues in a piece for the Financial Times. Seru’s core thesis is that the asset class isn’t what’s going to set off a 2008-style financial crisis.

Private credit funds’ conservatively structured leverage ratio and equity absorption cushion losses, Seru argues. Banking leverage is around 8-to-1, or roughly 12 cents of equity per USD of assets, while private credit has an average ratio of 1.25-to-1. Roughly 65-80 cents of every USD of assets is funded by equity rather than debt for funds that borrow from banks. This means losses are absorbed by long-term equity investors first, making funds more resilient in downturns.

This asset class also holds a strategic advantage by locking in investor capital for long durations. This structure aligns liabilities with the span of underlying loans and reduces the risk of forced liquidation. Meanwhile, banks fund long-term assets with short-term liabilities that can be withdrawn on demand, creating maturity mismatches and fueling financial crises.

Bank ties and investor withdrawals aren’t major threats

Concerns about bank linkages are also overstated: Private credit funds typically only use bank credit lines for short-term needs, such as managing the timing of capital calls, Seru notes. The Federal Reserve even modeled a severe stress scenario in which private credit funds face distress and fully draw down these lines — even then, major banks remain well capitalized.

Rising investor withdrawals are less of a distress sign than a financial safety measure. Investors have rushed to redeem their capital amid transparency and AI-related risks, pushing multiple firms to cap withdrawals and avoid selling illiquid loans at steep reductions. These measures don’t mean that the sector is facing a crisis, but rather a precaution designed to slash losses and protect valuable assets.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asian markets hit record highs in early trading this morning, led by Japan’s Nikkei, which gained around 1.5%, and South Korea’s Kospi, which was up over 2.0%. US futures are set to open mixed later today, with futures swinging between gains and losses.

TASI	11,122	+0.1% (YTD: +6.0%)
MSCI Tadawul 30	1,490	+0.1% (YTD: +7.4%)
NomuC	22,795	-0.3% (YTD: -2.2%)
USD : SAR (SAMA)	USD 3.75 Sell	USD 3.75 Buy
Interest rates	4.25% repo	3.75% reverse repo
EGX30	52,421	+0.1% (YTD: +25.3%)
ADX	9,789	+0.4% (YTD: -2.0%)
DFM	5,854	+0.7% (YTD: -3.2%)
S&P 500	7,165	+0.8% (YTD: +4.5%)
FTSE 100	10,379	-0.8% (YTD: +4.3%)
Euro Stoxx 50	5,883	-0.2% (YTD: +0.6%)
Brent crude	USD 105.33	+0.3%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 2.52	-3.5%
Gold	USD 4,741	+0.4%
BTC	USD 78,422	+1.0% (YTD: -10.5%)
Sukuk/bond market index	916.78	-0.5% (YTD: -0.3%)
S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk	151.77	-0.1% (YTD: -0.1%)
VIX (Volatility Index)	18.71	-3.1% (YTD: +29.0%)

THE CLOSING BELL: TADAWUL-

The TASI rose 0.1% yesterday on turnover of SAR 3.6 bn. The index is up 6.0% YTD.

In the green: Petro Rabigh (+10.0%), Yansab (+7.0%), and Alujain (+5.7%).

In the red: Baan (-7.6%), Saudi Darb (-4.4%), and National Agricultural Development (-4.3%).

THE CLOSING BELL: NOMU-

The NomuC fell 0.3% yesterday on turnover of SAR 22.8 mn. The index is down 2.2% YTD.

In the green: Mayar (+8.8%), Munawla (+8.5%), and Rawasi (+8.2%).

In the red: Mulkia (-9.4%), NGDC (-9.3%), and Adeer (-4.9%).

CALENDAR

MAY

3-9 May (Sunday-Sunday): The Global Sustainability Expo, The Arena Riyadh Venue.

19-21 May (Tuesday-Thursday): The Saudi Entertainment and Amusement Expo, Riyadh Front Exhibition and Conference Center.

24-28 May (Sunday-Thursday): Eid Al Adha holiday.

JUNE

15-17 June (Monday-Wednesday): Aluminum Arabia, The Arena, Riyadh.

21-24 June (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Food Exhibition and Conference, Riyadh Front Expo.

21-24 June (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Print & Pack, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

21-24 June (Sunday-Wednesday): Riyadh International Industry Week, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

21-24 June (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Plastics & Petrochem, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

21-24 June (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Smart Logistics, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

22-24 June (Monday-Wednesday): The Future Hospitality Summit, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

JULY

6 July-23 August (Monday-Sunday): Esports World Cup, Riyadh.

AUGUST

31 August-3 Sep (Monday-Thursday): Leap Tech Conference, Riyadh Exhibition & Convention Center - Malham.

SEPTEMBER

9-10 September (Wednesday-Thursday): Procurement and Supply Chain Futures Forum, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

9-10 September (Wednesday-Thursday): Real Estate Supply Chain Forum, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

15-17 September (Tuesday-Thursday) The Global AI Summit, King Abdulaziz International Convention Center, Riyadh.

23 September (Wednesday): Saudi National Day.

OCTOBER

12-15 October (Monday-Thursday): World Energy Congress, Riyadh.

26-28 October (Monday-Wednesday): ACHEMA Middle East, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

NOVEMBER

24-28 November (Tuesday-Saturday): Aero Middle East and Sand & Fun, Thumamah Airport, Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2026:

2H: Sabic’s USD 6.4 bn Fujian project in China to start production;
September: Saudi Paper and Packaging Expo, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center;
November: The UN Trade and Development Global Supply Chain Forum to take place in Saudi Arabia;
November: The Esports Nations Cup, Riyadh;
The World Economic Forum’s Global Collaboration and Growth Meeting, Jeddah;
SkyMove Air Cargo MENA, Riyadh;
The Intervision international music competition will take place in Saudi Arabia.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2027:

The World Water Forum takes place in Riyadh;
The Ocean Race finishes in Amaala on the Red Sea;
Riyadh-Kudmi transmission line to be completed;
Capital Markets Forum takes place in March in Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2Q 2027:

The Hail Region Water Networks Project is expected to be completed.

Sections

About

Privacy & Support

Get EnterpriseAM daily

Testing the waters

An independent publication supported by

Today at a glance

War leaves agreements in limbo as Gulf investors weigh risk