Tadawul’s eyes are on China

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

PayTabs to buy Amazon’s MENA payments arm for USD +100mn

Good morning, friends. A Saudi property buyer sat down this year, opened four apps, read more disclosure than any buyer in this market has ever had access to, and found the decision harder than it was five years ago. Hold onto that thought — it explains our biggest stories of the day.

The buyer’s problem is that the data got better at the unit level, while the biggest questions just moved up a level. In a market being built masterplan-first, an apartment is a derivative of a plan. Our conversation with Holo KSA’s Shabab Al Qarni is about that gap and what digitization has to fix next.

Now apply the same test to ins. numbers. A 13% rise in the sector’s bottom line reads as a market getting better at its job. One level down, the five largest went nowhere and nearly all the improvement came from the 19 below them losing less than last year.

Tadawul’s China push asks for the same reading. The list is broad — equities, debt, cross-listings, capital raising — and lists of intentions are cheap. What makes this different from what came before is the kind of tie it builds. An ETF link is passive exposure; it can be unwound on any Tuesday afternoon. A Chinese company listing in Riyadh has filed, committed, and taken on obligations it can’t easily reverse. One of those is a relationship — the other is a position.

Happening today

The Seredo Expo for Real Estate Development and Ownership opened yesterday and wraps up tomorrow at the Jeddah Superdome, TradeArabia reports. The event will showcase real estate projects and new technology, along with workshops and panels on market trends and challenges.

Happening tomorrow

Subscription for the September round of the government’s retail sukuk program Sah closes tomorrow at 3pm after kicking off yesterday, the National Debt Management Center said on X. The instruments carry a 4.8% fixed annual return over a one-year maturity. The minimum subscription amount per investor is set at SAR 1k, with maximum subscriptions capped at SAR 200k.

PayTabs eyes Amazon’s MENA payments arm

Saudi payments firm PayTabs is reportedly buying Amazon out of the regional payments game. The group has agreed to take over Amazon Payment Services’ operations across MENA for north of USD 100 mn, CNN Business Arabic reports, citing people familiar with the matter. The combined operation would process more than SAR 150 bn a year across payment processing, switching, and transfers.

The read: In a market that’s still a patchwork of separate providers, the consolidation play gives PayTabs a ready-made book of Amazon merchants rather than one it has to secure account by account.

WeRide wagers on Riyadh

WeRide plans to raise the number of robotaxis operating in Saudi Arabia by the end of the decade to 7k-10k, with the Chinese company looking to hit 100 vehicles in Riyadh by year-end, WeRide Head of International and CFO Jennifer Li told Agbi. The company is planning for exponential growth and is moving beyond its current airport operation with Uber and local partner Ai Driver. WeRide plans to extend its Riyadh service into Olaya and launch a separate project next year in Qiddiya.

REMEMBER- WeRide has autonomous buses operating in AlUla and has introduced Robosweeper autonomous street-cleaning vehicles. The sweepers have since been withdrawn for upgrades to cope with the GCC’s high levels of dust and sand.

Data point

USD 407 mn — that’s what Saudi football clubs spent on international transfers in the summer 2026 window, the lowest level since 2023 and a 26.3% y-o-y drop, Asharq Business reports, citing a FIFA transfer report. Saudi clubs ranked seventh globally in international transfer spending, ahead of Portugal (USD 301 mn) and Belgium (USD 258 mn), but well behind England, which led with USD 3.02 bn. On the sell side, Saudi clubs booked a record USD 105 mn in player-sale revenue, up 4% from 2025.

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The big story abroad

Geopolitics takes top billing today. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party has vaulted into first place in Saxony-Anhalt’s regional elections, marking a notable setback for the country’s established parties. Although the AfD secured 44% of the vote in this historic victory, it fell short of the absolute majority required to become the first far-right party to govern a German state since the 1930s.

Ins. cycle ending? An influx of capital into property and casualty ins. is driving down premiums, forcing the ins. industry to brace for a downturn. Meanwhile, high prices combined with low natural disaster losses have pushed payouts to their lowest point since 2006, driving record income for insurers. Industry executives warn of an imminent market downturn as insurers and reinsurers gather in Monaco to begin annual price negotiations for 2027.

China’s next state-level capital injection: Beijing is shoring up capital across its financial system by enacting a USD 54 bn capital injection into public banks and insurers, with the country’s largest life insurer — China Life Ins. — snapping up USD 5.2 bn. The move coincides with persistently low interest rates that squeeze profitability across the ins. sector, leaving many small and mid-size carriers with weakening solvency ratios.

Tadawul wants Chinese money in Saudi equities, debt, and listings

Tadawul is going after Chinese capital across equities, debt, cross-listings, and capital raising, moving past the exchange-traded fund links that have defined the relationship so far, the exchange group said in a press release. The next phase will connect Chinese investors to Saudi issuers, open new funding sources for local companies, and pull Chinese firms into listing in the Kingdom.

ETFs were the proof of concept: Saudi-tracking ETFs were launched in Shanghai and Shenzhen in 2024, while the Kingdom listed ETFs tracking Chinese securities traded in Hong Kong, said CEO of Saudi Exchange Mohammed Al Rumaih.

The caps are the ceiling. Foreign investors remain limited to holding 10% of any listed company and 49% in aggregate on a SAR 9.44 tn (USD 2.5 tn) stock market. Morgan Stanley puts c. USD 4.3 bn of passive inflows on a move to 75% — and that money arrives mechanically, whether or not anyone actually wants the stock. “Increasing the ownership limit has the technical consequence of increasing the weights of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index and others, which should at least drive some passive inflows, as we have seen from similar ownership limit hikes in other Gulf states, even if actual foreign ownership (and indeed freefloat) ratios remain far lower,” Justin Alexander, GCC economist and director of Khalij Economics, tells EnterpriseAM.

REMEMBER- Earlier this year, the main market was opened to all foreign investor categories, scrapping the Qualified Foreign Investor framework and swap agreements.

Saudi ins. income climbs as smaller players narrow losses –Moody’s

Listed Saudi ins. providers’ net income attributable to shareholders rose 13% to around SAR 1.5 bn in 1H 2026, but the increase came entirely from the bottom of the market. Aggregate losses at the 19 ins. providers outside the top five narrowed to around SAR 100 mn from some SAR 300 mn, while the five largest earned a combined SAR 1.6 bn, broadly unchanged y-o-y, according to Moody’s Ratings (pdf). Ins. revenue across the 24 listed insurers climbed 14% to nearly SAR 38.5 bn.

Motor and medical are still doing the work: Growth in the two compulsory lines drove the revenue increase, while investment income excluding unit-linked results jumped 17% to SAR 1.4 bn. That follows sector growth in 2025, when gross written premiums rose 10.7% to SAR 84.3 bn, according to the Ins. Authority.

Half the market is still in the red: Twelve of the 24 listed insurers reported higher net income in 1H, while nine remained loss-making. Walaa is the clearest turnaround, swinging to SAR 43 mn in net income from a SAR 117 mn loss a year earlier.

Scale still rules the market: Tawuniya, Bupa Arabia, Al Rajhi Takaful, Medgulf and Wataniya accounted for around 77% of insurance revenue at the end of the first half, with Tawuniya and Bupa Arabia alone representing roughly 59%. Medgulf posted the strongest improvement among the top five, while lower earnings at Tawuniya offset gains elsewhere in the group. Also, all five insurers reported y-o-y growth in investment income, while nine of the remaining 19 posted declines.

Capital is moving the other way from earnings: Sector-wide equity rose 7.4% to around SAR 28 bn by June, largely reflecting retained earnings, capital injections, and balance-sheet expansion among larger insurers. Several smaller companies reported double-digit declines in shareholders’ equity — the same firms whose narrowing losses account for the sector’s profit growth.

REMEMBER- National Ins. Sector Strategy targets nearly doubling the size of the industry to SAR 150 bn by 2030, while raising its contribution to non-oil GDP to 3.6%, but the regulatory clock is ticking. From January 2027, insurers will move to a risk-based capital and economic-solvency framework. Moody’s expects the new regime to put additional pressure on weaker players, potentially accelerating consolidation and M&A across the sector.

Holo’s Shabab Al Qarni on technology and the changing Saudi property journey

Saudi property buyers are now looking beyond just the unit and are increasingly shopping for a masterplan. As Saudi Arabia builds out its smart cities and pushes the property transaction chain online, the questions a buyer needs answered before they sign have gotten considerably harder. Shabab Al Qarni (LinkedIn), general manager of Holo KSA, talks to us about how the definition of a good location is shifting, why more information hasn’t made buying any simpler, and what the next phase of digitization has to fix.

EnterpriseAM: How is smart-city development reshaping demand in the Saudi real estate market?

Shabab Al Qarni: Smart-city development is changing how buyers assess real estate in Saudi Arabia. The question is no longer just where a property is located, but what is being built around it — and how that location will evolve over time.

Infrastructure, mobility, connectivity, and access to services are becoming increasingly important in determining a property's long-term value and suitability. Buyers are therefore looking beyond the individual unit and considering the wider ecosystem they are buying into.

From where we sit at Holo, that makes access to information increasingly important. Buyers need a clearer picture of both the property itself and the development taking shape around it to make more informed decisions.

E: How are the priorities of Saudi property buyers changing as those cities come online?

SAQ: Price and location will always matter, but the definition of a good location is becoming broader. As the Kingdom develops more connected communities and invests in infrastructure and quality of life, buyers are increasingly looking beyond the property itself to the wider community — its accessibility, services, connectivity, amenities, and development potential.

Property decisions are therefore becoming more informed and complex. The question used to be “Can I afford this property?” Now, it’s: “Is this the right property and community for me?”

That’s where technology can play an important role. Nobody needs more information at this point — they need help working out which parts of it matter. That's the opportunity we're building for at Holo: getting a buyer through a more complicated market and still leaving them sure about the decision.

E: From search to ownership — how is technology changing the buying experience in the Kingdom?

SAQ: The market is digitizing fast. REGA has licensed 71 electronic real estate platforms, and its own ecosystem — the Real Estate Registry, Aqari, the Geospatial Real Estate Portal — has moved property information, registration and transactions online.

But digitizing individual steps only gets you so far. Searching, reading a community, comparing options, dealing with a developer, closing — to a buyer, these still feel like five separate processes. The job is to join them up, not to move each one onto a screen and call it progress.

The next phase of this will be judged on how much friction it strips out while keeping the human guidance people want when they're making the biggest financial decision of their lives. The Saudi buyer is more digital and better informed than they were five years ago. The businesses that win won't be the ones that digitized a transaction — they'll be the ones that helped someone make a better decision.

The Saudi-US nuclear deal has a back door

The Saudi-US nuclear agreement’s back door: Riyadh could end up enriching uranium to nearly 20% under the civil nuclear agreement it struck with the Trump administration, the Wall Street Journal reports. Under the terms of the agreement, Riyadh and Washington have up to two years to study the project’s economics and put proliferation safeguards in place. If approved, US companies could build a facility to enrich to 5%, with further consultations potentially lifting that to nearly 20%.

IN CONTEXT- The agreement signed last July covers nuclear inspection and monitoring arrangements, but was never meant to include the “gold standard” commitment to forgo uranium enrichment and spent-fuel reprocessing — two key steps to prevent the development of nuclear weapons. Critics say the agreement’s safeguards fall short of the International Atomic Energy Agency’s Additional Protocol, which gives inspectors broader authority to verify potentially undeclared nuclear activities.

The politics are far from clean-cut: Prince Mohammed bin Salman pledged in 2018 that the Kingdom would pursue a nuclear weapon if Iran got one. And just one day after signing the nuclear agreement, US President Donald Trump bolted on a condition that could unravel the whole thing: The agreement “will be approved, but is totally subject to Saudi Arabia joining the very respected and successful Abraham Accords,” he said on Truth Social, adding there would be “no enrichment.”

Congress also appears to have limited room to intervene. The agreement will take effect after 90 legislative days unless lawmakers pass a joint resolution of disapproval with a majority sufficient to override a presidential veto.

Aqar takes early stake in Syria’s Doushesh

Aqar backs Syrian classifieds platform

Saudi real estate platform Aqar has signed an MoU to invest up to USD 480k in Syrian classifieds company Doushesh, the Syrian firm said on Instagram. The investment will come through a Simple Agreement for Future Equity, released in tranches as Doushesh hits agreed growth milestones, and is aimed at expanding its classifieds platform and building out digital infrastructure for Syria's real estate and classifieds sectors.

It's a small check, but it fits a much larger pattern. Saudi capital has been flowing into Syrian reconstruction across energy, aviation, telecoms, and real estate. This is the private-sector, early-stage end of that push, with a Saudi platform taking a stake in Syrian digital infrastructure rather than a state-backed megaproject. The milestone-linked SAFE structure keeps Aqar's exposure small while giving it an option on a market that's only just opening to Gulf investment.

Al Rajhi Bank raises USD 600 mn sukuk

Al Rajhi Bank has raised USD 600 mn through Tier 2 social trust certificates, according to a Tadawul filing. The 10.5-year sukuk, callable after 5.25 years, carries a 6.232% annual return, with settlement due on 10 September. The certificates will be listed on the London Stock Exchange’s International Securities Market. The “social” label means the proceeds will go toward eligible social financing under the bank’s framework.

Dar AlBalad is shopping for AI capability

Dar Al Balad Business Solutions (DBS) has signed a non-binding MoU to explore buying up to 100% of two UAE-based AI firms — Clouding Computer Systems (DWC) and Clouding Intelligence Computer Systems — the company said in a Tadawul disclosure. This is a six-month MoU for due diligence, with no price tag or financial obligation if DBS walks away.

What DBS would be buying is expertise rather than scale: The target bills itself as one of the region’s leading players in enterprise agentic AI and field-deployment engineering. It was the first in the Middle East to take Salesforce’s Agentforce Partner of the Year award and has built its own agentic AI product, Empathy Studio.

DBS has been busy on the balance sheet lately, lining up a SAR 20 mn facility with Emirates NBD in August, following a matching SAR 20 mn line from SNB in June.

Serbian visa waiver

Saudi Arabia and Serbia have signed an agreement mutually exempting holders of diplomatic, special, and service passports from short-stay visa requirements, per a foreign ministry statement. Deputy Foreign Minister Waleed Al-Khuraiji signed the agreement with his Serbian counterpart Marko Djuric in Belgrade, where the two also discussed strengthening bilateral ties. Djuric said his country is also looking to further expand trade ties with the Kingdom, boost exports of Serbian products and benefit from Saudi expertise in science and technology.

EM debt fares well amid US Treasury selloff

Emerging-market bonds are shrugging off a selloff that's sent developed-market yields to multi-year highs. The US 30-year Treasury has climbed to its highest level since 2007, yet EM issuers have kept coming to market and buyers have kept showing up, Bloomberg reports. Where investors once demanded a steep premium for EM risk, several things are narrowing that gap.

“EMs are the new DMs,” Gavekal Research’s Udith Sikand says, pointing out failings on the latter’s part to keep a lid on inflation in recent years.

Two forces are doing the work: EM policymakers have gotten the basics right — inflation targeting, fiscal discipline, reserve buffers. And Washington's own fiscal picture is eroding the comparison: a shakier outlook for benchmark Treasuries makes EM paper look relatively less risky than it used to. A Treasury buyback program is meant to ease Washington's own ballooning debt-servicing bill, but hasn't fully calmed the market.

Persistently high energy prices on the back of the Hormuz disruption have kept inflation and yields high, particularly in developed markets, with September’s inflation reading from the Fed expected to register over a percentage point higher than targets. Other developed markets are also reluctant to make the unpopular move of reducing budget deficits that ballooned during the pandemic, Standard Bank’s Steven Barrow said.

The proof: EM local-currency bonds are up 3.5% this year against a 1.7% decline for developed-market equivalents. Pakistan’s recent junk bond sale raised a record USD 3 bn, seeing orders of nearly USD 6 bn following a ratings upgrade. The paper’s risk premium tightened by roughly 25 bps amid a tightening spread in response to rising Treasury yields. JPMorgan Chase’s gauge of EM bond premiums over the US also held steady. Plus: Uruguay central bank chief Guillermo Tolosa points to rising appetite for local-currency debt over USD paper — a shift already visible in Africa's local-currency debt boom.

Closer to home, the story is messier — and more exposed than “resilient.” Long-dated Gulf sovereign bonds have fallen to multi-month lows since the war escalated, as regional risk stacks on top of the global Treasury selloff. A Saudi 30-year bond has dropped 8.5% in price, pushing its yield to a 16-month high of 6.2%; comparable Qatari and Omani 30-year paper are down 10.3% and 6.9%, with Qatar hit hardest as Iran's near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz has gutted Gulf seaborne gas exports, AGBI reported recently. Credit spreads over Treasuries have held up better than those price moves suggest — but Mashreq Capital's Amol Shitole argues that's not reassurance: spreads should be 25-50 bps wider than they are, he says, given the risk still on the table. Saudi paper carries an extra burden of its own: heavy issuance from the government, Aramco, and PIF has created a supply-driven repricing on its long-dated bonds specifically, on top of the war and the Treasury selloff.

What’s next: The Fed's 16 September rate decision will move Treasury yields broadly. For Gulf bondholders specifically, Franklin Templeton's Mohieddine Kronfol says events in the Strait of Hormuz — and each government's own funding calendar — will matter just as much.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asian markets mostly rose earlier today, with South Korea’s Kospi gaining around 2.8% and Japan’s Nikkei rising around 2%, even as attention returned to escalating regional tensions following reciprocal military strikes between the US and Iran.

TASI	11,069	+0.3% (YTD: +5.5%)
MSCI Tadawul 30	1,488	+0.4% (YTD: +7.3%)
NomuC	21,739	-0.2% (YTD: -6.7%)
USD : SAR (SAMA)	USD 3.75 Sell	USD 3.75 Buy
Interest rates	4.25% repo	3.75% reverse repo
EGX30	56,676	+0.7% (YTD: +35.5%)
ADX	9,977	+0.5% (YTD: -0.2%)
DFM	5,885	+0.7% (YTD: -2.7%)
S&P 500	7,719	-0.4% (YTD: -12.8%)
FTSE 100	10,831	+0.0% (YTD: +9.1%)
Euro Stoxx 50	6,393	+0.2% (YTD: +10.3%)
Brent crude	USD 96.77	+0.5%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 2.95	-0.9%
Gold	USD 4,467	-0.2%
BTC	USD 79,648	-0.2% (YTD: -9.1%)
Sukuk/bond market index	902.99	-0.6% (YTD: -1.8%)
S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk	150.68	-0.1% (YTD: -0.8%)
VIX (Fear gauge)	14.53	+1.5% (YTD: -2.8%)

THE CLOSING BELL: TADAWUL-

The TASI rose 0.3% yesterday on turnover of SAR 2.97 bn. The index is up 5.5% YTD.

In the green: Saudi Arabia Refineries (+7.4%), Banan Real Estate (+4.2%), and Wafrah (+3.2%).

In the red: Ladun Investment (-5.9%), Armah Sports (-2.9%), and Naseej International Trading (-2.8%).

THE CLOSING BELL: NOMU-

The NomuC fell 0.2% yesterday on turnover of SAR 15.7 mn. The index is down 6.7% YTD.

In the green: Basma Adeem Medical (+6.4%), Multi Business Group (+6.3%), and Arabian Plastic Industrial (+6.2%).

In the red: Al Fakhera (-25.6%), Riyal Investment and Development (-9.2%), and Aljouf Mineral Water Bottling (-9.1%).

CORPORATE ACTIONS-

Saudi Fisheries’ shareholders will vote on 27 September on a 500% capital increase through a SAR 334.9 mn rights issue, according to a Tadawul disclosure. The increase would take the company’s capital to SAR 401.8 mn, issuing 33.49 mn new shares, with proceeds funding its operational plans.

CALENDAR

SEPTEMBER

8-10 September (Tuesday-Thursday): The WTM Spotlight Riyadh, Riyadh Front Exhibition & Conference Center (RFECC), Riyadh.

9 September (Wednesday): CyberHero x Riyadh, Riyadh.

14-17 September (Monday-Thursday) The fourth Unesco Global Forum on the Ethics of AI (GFEAI), The Ritz-Carlton, Riyadh.

15-17 September (Tuesday-Thursday) The Global AI Summit, King Abdulaziz International Convention Center, Riyadh.

23 September (Wednesday): Saudi National Day.

28 September-1 October (Monday-Thursday): The International Conference on Theory and Practice of Electronic Governance (ICEGOV), Prince Sultan University, Riyadh.

OCTOBER

25-26 October (Sunday-Monday): The Global Proptech Summit, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

26-28 October (Monday-Wednesday): ACHEMA Middle East, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

26-29 October (Monday-Thursday): The Future Investment Initiative, King Abdulaziz International Conference Center, Riyadh.

28-29 October (Wednesday-Thursday): Procurement and Supply Chain Futures Forum, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

28-29 October (Wednesday-Thursday): Real Estate Supply Chain Forum, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

30 October-1 November (Friday-Sunday): The New Global Sport Conference, Sofitel Hotel & Convention Centre, Riyadh.

NOVEMBER

11-12 November (Wednesday-Thursday): Aluminum Arabia, The Arena, Riyadh.

16-19 November (Monday-Thursday): Cityscape Global, Riyadh Exhibition and Convention Centre (Malham), Riyadh.

29 November-1 December (Sunday-Tuesday): The UN Trade and Development Global Supply Chain Forum, Riyadh.

29 November-1 December (Sunday-Tuesday): The Global Logistics Forum, King Abdulaziz International Convention Centre, Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2026:

2H: Sabic’s USD 6.4 bn Fujian project in China to start production;
November: The Esports Nations Cup, Riyadh;
The World Economic Forum’s Global Collaboration and Growth Meeting, Jeddah;

2027

FEBRUARY

1-3 February (Monday-Wednesday): Energy Regulators Regional Association annual conference, Riyadh.

MARCH

21-25 March (Sunday-Thursday):The World Water Forum, Riyadh.

22–24 March (Monday-Wednesday): Capital Markets Forum, Four Seasons Hotel, Riyadh

APRIL

26-29 April (Monday-Thursday): World Energy Congress, Riyadh.

JUNE

1-3 June (Tuesday-Thursday): The Saudi Entertainment and Amusement Expo, Riyadh Front Exhibition and Conference Center.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2027:

The Ocean Race finishes in Amaala on the Red Sea;
Riyadh-Kudmi transmission line to be completed;
Aero Middle East and Sand & Fun takes place in Thumamah Airport, Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2Q 2027:

The Hail Region Water Networks Project is expected to be completed.

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