Saudi growth forecast cut as oil transit fears mount

1

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

Sabic is eyeing a stake of up to 50% in a Chinese advanced materials project

Good morning, friends. Geography is doing Saudi Arabia a favor this year. A Reuters poll of economists has the Kingdom as one of just two Gulf economies still growing in 2026. The East-West pipeline moves Saudi crude to the Red Sea and clean around the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint whose near-closure is pulling most of our neighbors into contraction.

The regional picture is grim, and getting more so. BMI has now pushed the MENA recovery out to 2027, seeing the region contract 0.7% this year before a 6.5% rebound the next — but nearly all of that bounce-back rests on oil exports, which in turn rests on Hormuz reopening.

Sabic deepens its China play

Sabic is eyeing a stake of up to 50% in a Chinese advanced materials project. The company signed a project development agreement with China’s Rongsheng Petrochemical to jointly develop the Jintang New Materials Project in Zhoushan, Zhejiang Province, according to a press release. Under the agreement, Sabic is evaluating an equity investment of up to 50% in Rongsheng New Materials, the subsidiary carrying out the project, with the agreement setting a framework toward a potential final investment decision. No investment figure was disclosed.

Why it matters: Sabic has been restructuring before re-expanding. The company sold its European units in January in a SAR 3.6 bn divestment, then returned to black in 1Q with a net income of SAR 13.2 mn after a SAR 1.2 bn loss a year earlier. A potential 50% stake in a Chinese downstream subsidiary suggests the international strategy is back on, focusing eastward rather than westward.

US, Saudi wrap nuclear talks

The Kingdom’s clearest path yet to domestic uranium enrichment is sitting unsigned on Trump’s desk. A US-Saudi civil nuclear accord that would let Riyadh enrich uranium on its own soil was fully negotiated back in October but is now stalled, awaiting President Donald Trump’s signature, CNN reports, citing draft documents and sources familiar with the talks.

Why this matters: Over in the UAE, domestic enrichment was the line Abu Dhabi agreed not to cross. The UAE’s 2009 “123 agreement” — the template Washington calls the nonproliferation gold standard — traded away enrichment and reprocessing in exchange for US technology and full IAEA oversight via the Additional Protocol. The draft Saudi agreement does neither, as it permits a degree of domestic enrichment and swaps standardized IAEA inspection for a bilateral US-Saudi safeguards arrangement, per a waiver the administration sent Congress and a May State Department letter reviewed by CNN.

What’s holding it up? Politics. Two sources told the news outlet the Iran war has made the signature awkward, given Washington justified that campaign as stopping Tehran’s own enrichment. The administration is also wary of a bipartisan disapproval resolution on Capitol Hill, where the enrichment provision and the lighter IAEA regime have already drawn concern. The accord is yet to go to Congress for the review federal law requires once it’s signed.

Ladun takes another go at Tadawul

Ladun is taking another run at Tadawul’s main market. The Nomu-listed investment company has submitted its application to transfer to the Tadawul main market, according to a filing to the exchange, targeting completion in 3Q.

REMEMBER- Ladun hit the brakes on its move to TASI late last year, less than a month after it submitted the request due to incomplete regulatory requirements.

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The big story abroad

International dailies are calmer than usual today, with the latest updates in the regional war leading the news cycle.

The US military launched another round of airstrikes against Iranian targets yesterday, marking its ninth consecutive night of strikes, the US Central Command said. The latest salvo follows the deaths of three US servicemembers this week in Jordan and Iraq.

Taiwan’s semiconductor giant TSMC is pouring another USD 100 bn into expanding its Arizona facilities, citing surging, multi-year demand for AI hardware. A major supplier of chipmaker Nvidia, TSMC reported record 2Q results last week and has not ruled out the possibility of issuing new bonds should market conditions prove favorable, its CFO Wendell Huang said.

Spain brought home its second-ever World Cup trophy after triumphing 1-0 over Argentina. The New Jersey showdown proved a stalemate until substitute Ferran ​Torres secured the winning goal in extra time.

Meanwhile at the box office, Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey brought in USD 264 mn globally in its opening weekend — the director’s highest-grossing debut so far. The film — the first ever to be shot entirely on Imax cameras — flaunts an all-star cast and garnered widespread critical acclaim.

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2

ECONOMY

Saudi growth downgraded, but still outruns GCC, economists say

Saudi Arabia is poised to be one of just two Gulf economies to grow this year, a Reuters poll of economists found, as the Kingdom’s East-West pipeline moves crude to the Red Sea and around the Strait of Hormuz — the chokepoint whose near-closure is dragging most of our neighbors into contraction.

Even so, the Kingdom’s growth forecast was cut to 1.4% from the 2.6% economists expected three months ago, coming in below the IMF’s revised 1.7% projection, itself down from 3.1% in April. Oman, the only other GCC economy projected to expand this year, saw its growth forecast upgraded to 3.1% from 2.2%, thanks to its primary export terminal sitting safely outside Hormuz.

But the near-term picture is far from settled. Estimates for Saudi growth this year run from a 4.3% contraction to a 4.1% expansion, a spread wide enough that Bank Audi group chief economist Marwan Barakat cautioned against taking any Gulf forecast at face value right now.

REMEMBER- The East-West pipeline already carries up to 7 mn bbl / d, roughly 2 mn bbl / d to domestic refineries and the remainder for exports. The Kingdom is weighing an expansion in preliminary talks with neighbors including Kuwait, Bahrain, and Qatar about adding 1-2 mn bbl / d, with a separate line for refined products also on the table.

Looking further: The economists expect a sharp 2027 rebound, with Saudi at 6.0% growth, but only if tensions ease and Hormuz shipping normalizes over the next six to 12 months.

Zooming out

Geography is drawing the line between who stays afloat in the Gulf. Kuwait and Qatar, both fully dependent on Hormuz, took the sharpest downgrades, each now seen contracting 8.1%, down from 4.4% and 6.0% in April. Bahrain is forecast to shrink 5.1% and the UAE 0.5%.

The problem for GCC producers isn’t the oil price — it’s the ability to ship. Crude has climbed nearly 20% this month to about USD 85 a barrel, but higher prices aren’t offsetting lost export volumes, costlier freight, and weaker investor confidence from the heightened risk.

Why it matters: The region’s diversification agendas are exposed to the same disruption. The tourism, logistics, finance, technology, and real estate sectors that Riyadh, Abu Dhabi, and Doha have pitched as a buffer against oil-price swings are vulnerable to grounded airspace, weaker travel demand, and delayed shipments. The larger risk may be less about another escalation than businesses permanently pricing in a higher geopolitical risk premium, Oxford Economics lead economist Akanksha Samdani said.

3

EARNINGS WATCH

Mobily’s net income brushes off regional jitters in 2Q

Mobily up in 2Q: Mobily’s net income rose 8.6% y-o-y in 2Q to SAR 901 mn, with revenues jumping 5.2% y-o-y to SAR 5.08 bn, according to an earnings statement (pdf). The increase is driven by growth across all segments with a healthier subscriber base, alongside a 7.7% y-o-y rise in EBITDA to SAR 2 bn in 2Q.

The quarterly read is more modest: Against 1Q 2026, net income grew 2.4%, and revenue edged up just 0.8% driven by the expansion of the consumer segment throughout the Hajj season and a robust wholesale segment bolstered by strategic partnerships with regional and global players.

The dividends: The company will distribute SAR 1.07 bn in dividends for 1H at SAR 1.4 per share, according to a Tadawul disclosure. Shareholders will receive the payout on 19 August.

4

MOVES

Shams names Majed Al Otaibi as new CEO

Tourism Enterprise Company (Shams) appointed Majed bin Nawwar Al Otaibi as CEO, effective 17 July, according to a Tadawul filing. Al Otaibi succeeds Abdullah bin Omar Al Suwailem, whose contract ended by mutual agreement.

Al Otaibi brings over 25 years of experience across investment and asset management, having held senior leadership roles in banking and investment firms where he led investment strategies and governance initiatives. He also holds a master’s degree in economics from Ohio University.

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ALSO ON OUR RADAR

Riyadh Air lands in Madrid, Ades expands Nigeria footprint

Riyadh Air is expanding its Spanish network: Saudi’s new national carrier launched its first flights to Madrid on Friday, just three days after inaugurating seasonal flights to Malaga, it said in a press release. Flight RX0531 — operated by Boeing 787-9 Dreamliner — landed at Adolfo Suarez Madrid-Barajas Airport on Friday morning, becoming the first scheduled nonstop service between Riyadh and the Spanish capital.

ALSO- Riyadh Air signed an MoU with Air Europa to explore a broader commercial partnership linking both airlines’ networks through Madrid. The agreement, subject to regulatory approvals, covers codesharing, loyalty program integration, cargo cooperation, and digital initiatives, giving passengers easier access to destinations across Spain, southern Europe, and Latin America.

REMEMBER- Riyadh Air plans to add one Boeing 787-9 monthly and launch two new destinations every two months, aiming for 100 cities by 2030.

Ades expands Nigeria footprint

Ades secured a SAR 375.3 mn contract for the Shelf Drilling Odyssey jackup rig from Nigeria’s Seplat Energy, according to a disclosure (pdf). The two-year contract includes two one-year extension options, with operations expected to begin in 1Q 2027.

REMEMBER- The company is expanding its presence in Nigeria after landing a SAR 180.7 mn, one-year contract from Belbop Nigeria for its Main Pass IV standard jack-up rig in May. It previously partnered with Seplat Energy to provide offshore drilling services in Nigeria under a SAR 347.6 mn contract in the same month, following a separate agreement that took place in April to deploy rigs for West African Exploration Company.

Think closes MENA’s largest AI-infrastructure pre-seed

Riyadh-based AI infrastructure startup Think raised over USD 8 mn in a pre-seeding round co-led by Raed Ventures and Wa’ed Ventures, with participation from Dhahran Techno Valley’s venture capital arm and strategic angels, according to a press release. The funding will be used to scale the firm’s manufacturing and product development, starting domestically and stretching across the GCC and key international markets over the next 18 months.

Think? Founded in 2025 by Ahmed Al Sharif and Ammar Enaya, the company builds integrated AI infrastructure that aims to maximize GPU utilization, cut token costs, and simplify enterprise AI deployment.

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PLANET FINANCE

MENA economy to shrink in 2026 before 6.5% rebound -BMI

BMI has pushed MENA recovery into 2027, projecting the region’s economy will contract in 2026 before rebounding next year. The Fitch Solutions research house said in a webinar attended by EnterpriseAM that it now sees regional GDP contracting 0.7% this year, then rebounding 6.5% in 2027, with almost all of that recovery resting on oil exports, which in turn depend on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

The downgrade tracks a stickier Hormuz and a shift into what BMI calls “messy negotiations.” Washington has reimposed its naval blockade on Iranian ports, and Tehran has moved to shut the strait, through which roughly a fifth of the world’s seaborne oil and LNG normally passes. BMI has put its full-year oil forecast under review and lifted its working range for Brent to USD 80-95 a barrel in 2H 2026, up from the USD 70-80 it had penciled in under its “constructive” scenario. A sustained break above USD 90 would start to embed supply-shortage fears, BMI analysts said.

Even a diplomatic breakthrough buys months, not weeks. BMI expects a one-month test period, followed by at least six to 12 weeks of sustained calm, before tanker traffic returns to levels shippers consider commercially normal. Meanwhile, broader cargo vessels are expected to lag further behind.

What to watch: Oil market sentiment above all and the shape of any Hormuz charge. BMI expects Iran to push for fees on vessels using the strait but rates the chance of a permanent transit toll being widely accepted as low. More plausible is a services-fee structure tied to navigation, traffic management, and environmental protection — the Malacca Strait model — with Oman steering the GCC that way. One wrinkle they flagged is a US security-services fee on ships it escorts could end up normalizing Iran’s own demand for a fee.

The breakdown

The divide comes down to one thing: whether a country can get its exports out through an alternative to Hormuz, with the biggest pain concentrated in economies most dependent on the waterway.

In the contraction zone: Iraq’s economy is expected to shrink 8.5% as collapsing oil exports open a USD 30 bn fiscal gap, Qatar is expected to contract 7.2% as LNG exports remain stranded, and Kuwait is projected to fall by 8.1% as both oil and non-oil activity weaken. Bahrain is in the most vulnerable position, with BMI forecasting the deficit to widen to 8.5% of GDP and debt to exceed 150% as sectors accounting for about 85% of output come under pressure.

Countries with alternative export routes are projected to fare better. Saudi Arabia’s GDP is expected to grow around 1% in 2026 before accelerating to 6.8% in 2027, supported by its Red Sea export corridor and public investment — though disruption to that route from Yemen remains a key risk. Oman is expected to lead the GCC with 3.1% growth thanks to exports through Mina Al Fahl, which bypasses Hormuz, before moderating to 1.7% next year. Further afield, Egypt’s growth is tipped to hover near 5% as portfolio inflows recover, while Morocco is projected to stay above 4% on stronger agriculture and auto exports.

The UAE falls somewhere in between. While it has rerouted some crude exports through Fujairah, weakness in the non-oil economy is projected to leave growth broadly flat this year, which would mark its weakest performance since the pandemic. However, growth is expected to rebound by 11% in 2027 as oil output and trade recover. Like most of BMI’s 2027 forecasts, this recovery assumes Hormuz reopens, since a prolonged disruption would require another revision.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asia-Pacific markets fell sharply in early trading this morning as escalating regional tensions pushed Brent crude prices up and cautious investors sat tight awaiting the upcoming wave of tech earnings. Japan’s Nikkei led regional losses, falling over 4%, and South Korea’s Kospi dropped 3.1%. Wall Street is set to open the first trading day of the week in the red, with major US index futures trading down.

TASI

10,717

0.0% (YTD: +2.2%)

MSCI Tadawul 30

1,430

+0.1% (YTD: +3.1%)

NomuC

22,156

-0.4% (YTD: -4.9%)

USD : SAR (SAMA)

USD 3.75 Sell

USD 3.75 Buy

Interest rates

4.25% repo

3.75% reverse repo

EGX30

52,560

-0.7% (YTD: +25.7%)

ADX

9,782

0.0% (YTD: -1.6%)

DFM

5,814

-1.4% (YTD: -3.9%)

S&P 500

7,458

-1.0% (YTD: +8.9%)

FTSE 100

10,600

+0.3% (YTD: +6.7%)

Euro Stoxx 50

6,231

-0.8% (YTD: +7.5%)

Brent crude

USD 88.10

+4.6%

Natural gas (Nymex)

USD 2.91

+1.9%

Gold

USD 4,019

+0.7%

BTC

USD 64,376

-0.6% (YTD: -26.6%)

Sukuk/bond market index

911.02

+0.1% (YTD: -0.9%)

S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk

151.44

+0.1% (YTD: -0.3%)

VIX (Volatility Index)

18.77

+12.2% (YTD: +25.6%)

THE CLOSING BELL: TADAWUL-

The TASI was flat yesterday on turnover of SAR 2.4 bn. The index is up 2.2% YTD.

In the green: Knowledge Economic City (+10.0%), Enaya (+6.9%), and Almasane Alkobra (+4.9%).

In the red: Rasan (-3.6%), Smasco (-3.4%), and Thimar Development (-3.3%).

THE CLOSING BELL: NOMU-

The NomuC fell 0.4% yesterday on turnover of SAR 13.6 mn. The index is down 4.9% YTD.

In the green: Rimath (+7.7%), Tam Development (+7.6%), and Taqat (+5.0%).

In the red: AICTEC (-10.2%), Knowledge Tower (-8.7%), and Al Kuzama (-8.3%).


AUGUST

30 August-1 September (Sunday-Tuesday): Saudi Paper and Packaging Expo, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

31 August-3 September (Monday-Thursday): Leap Tech Conference, Riyadh Exhibition & Convention Center - Malham.

SEPTEMBER

8-10 September (Tuesday-Thursday): The WTM Spotlight Riyadh, Riyadh Front Exhibition & Conference Center (RFECC), Riyadh.

15-17 September (Tuesday-Thursday) The Global AI Summit, King Abdulaziz International Convention Center, Riyadh.

23 September (Wednesday): Saudi National Day.

28 September-1 October (Monday-Thursday): The International Conference on Theory and Practice of Electronic Governance (ICEGOV), Prince Sultan University, Riyadh.

OCTOBER

25-26 October (Sunday-Monday): The Global Proptech Summit, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

26-28 October (Monday-Wednesday): ACHEMA Middle East, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

26-29 October (Monday-Thursday): The Future Investment Initiative, King Abdulaziz International Conference Center, Riyadh.

28-29 October (Wednesday-Thursday): Procurement and Supply Chain Futures Forum, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

28-29 October (Wednesday-Thursday): Real Estate Supply Chain Forum, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

30 October-1 November (Friday-Sunday): The New Global Sport Conference, Sofitel Hotel & Convention Centre, Riyadh.

NOVEMBER

11-12 November (Wednesday-Thursday): Aluminum Arabia, The Arena, Riyadh.

16-19 November (Monday-Thursday): Cityscape Global, Riyadh Exhibition and Convention Centre (Malham), Riyadh.

29 November-1 December (Sunday-Tuesday): The UN Trade and Development Global Supply Chain Forum, Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2026:

2027

FEBRUARY

1-3 February (Monday-Wednesday): Energy Regulators Regional Association annual conference, Riyadh.

MARCH

21-25 March (Sunday-Thursday):The World Water Forum, Riyadh.

22–24 March (Monday-Wednesday): Capital Markets Forum, Four Seasons Hotel, Riyadh

APRIL

26-29 April (Monday-Thursday): World Energy Congress, Riyadh.

JUNE

1-3 June (Tuesday-Thursday): The Saudi Entertainment and Amusement Expo, Riyadh Front Exhibition and Conference Center.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2027:

  • The Ocean Race finishes in Amaala on the Red Sea;
  • Riyadh-Kudmi transmission line to be completed;
  • Aero Middle East and Sand & Fun takes place in Thumamah Airport, Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2Q 2027:

  • The Hail Region Water Networks Project is expected to be completed.
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