Room on the pipe

1

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

THIS MORNING: Egypt pledges support to Saudi in war against Houthis + mulls joining Makkah pact

Good morning, everyone. The WPC dealmaking hasn’t stopped: Spark landed China’s Dalipal Holdings for a steel pipe plant and Acwa Power is eyeing 4.5 GW of Mongolian renewables to power China. Desert Technologies and EnerVenue are betting on storage, with a pilot due in 1Q 2027, and the Kingdom has inked four energy MoUs, from Mongolia to Mauritius.

Tensions put Saudi energy security in the spotlight: The escalating conflict has made the world more aware of the Kingdom’s role in keeping energy flowing, even though security fears kept some senior oil executives away from the WPC Energy Congress in Riyadh, WPC Energy’s Ivan Marten tells EnterpriseAM.

Saudization is moving up the ladder: Saudis now hold more than half of high-skill private-sector jobs, according to the National Labor Observatory’s quarterly report, even as mid-skill roles lag behind.

War watch

Egypt says it will back Riyadh “without any reservation” and is ready to offer any kind of support to Saudi Arabia in its war with the Houthis, Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty told Bloomberg when asked about the possibility of Egyptian military support. Cairo is also mulling joining the regional Makkah defense agreement, which he said is “under serious consideration from the Egyptian side.”

Two’s company, three’s a crowd? Israel is reportedly looking for a way in with Saudi Arabia, offering to join the campaign against the Houthis, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly using US mediators to ask for Saudi approval, Haaretz reports, citing diplomatic sources. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is unlikely to accept the offer, the Israeli newspaper says.

REMEMBER- The US made its civil nuclear cooperation agreement with Saudi Arabia conditional on Riyadh joining the Abraham Accords and establishing official ties with Tel Aviv. Saudi Arabia previously maintained its refusal to recognize Israel and establish diplomatic relations without an “irreversible and time-bound path” to the creation of a Palestinian state, which the Netanyahu government has ruled out.

Energy facilities remain a central target in the conflict. An Aramco administrative building in Dhahran was targeted yesterday, causing a limited fire but no fatalities or injuries, SPA reports. Meanwhile, the Saudi-led coalition said it had neutralized assets used by the Houthis to conduct military operations, including Al Sabaha fuel depot station in Sanaa, underground fuel depots, and docks used for transporting and unloading fuel in Hodeidah, Sanaa, and Dhamar.

The coalition also intercepted two cruise missiles, whose debris injured four people and caused limited damage to 15 homes in Riyadh. In addition, it intercepted ballistic missiles launched toward Haradh and Dhahran as well as a drone launched at the capital.

The impact of escalation is increasing: Saudi international inbound and outbound air cargo capacity fell 33% over 72 hours to 7,292 tonnes, down 3,537 tonnes from the same period a week earlier, The Loadstar reports, citing Rotate data. Departures were also canceled, while the General Authority of Civil Aviation extended the suspension of operations at King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh to complete a safety inspection, according to SPA.

The WPC roundup

Among the agreements that were signed at the WPC Energy Congress in Riyadh:

  • King Salman Energy Park (SPARK) signed a 25-year land lease with China’s Dalipal Holdings for a manufacturing facility of more than 1 mn sqm to produce seamless steel pipes used in oil and gas wells, drilling, and hydrogen applications. The project is expected to draw USD 2.1 bn in total investment, including USD 600 mn in its first phase, building on an MoU signed in November 2024.
  • Acwa Power signed an MoU with Mongolia’s Sunstep Power to explore developing 4.5 GW of renewable power generation in Mongolia for export to China, backed by a 500 MWh battery storage system. The agreement also covers transmission infrastructure and potential exports to other markets.
  • Energy storage: Saudi Arabia’s Desert Technologies signed an MoU with US-based EnerVenueto explore deploying energy storage systems in the Kingdom. The companies plan to launch a 215 kWh pilot in 1Q 2027, targeting data centers, telecommunications, mining, oil and gas, and microgrids.
  • Cross-border cooperation: Saudi Arabia signed four MoUs with Mongolia, Tanzania, Cyprus and Mauritius to expand the cooperation across the energy sector, SPA reported. The agreements span oil and gas, refining, petrochemicals, electricity interconnection, renewable energy, LNG, clean hydrogen, transport infrastructure, and digital technologies.

Gas on the throttle

Aramco plans to commission up to seven major gas facilities by 2027, Executive Vice President of Gas Abdulkarim Al Ghamdi said at the WPC Energy Congress, according to Upstream. He touted the move as the largest gas expansion in the region and in Aramco’s history.

Jafurah is the centerpiece: The USD 100 bn-plus unconventional Jafurah gas development anchors the program, with its first two phases among the facilities due by 2027, alongside the Tanajib gas plant and the Fadhili expansion, per Upstream.

Why it matters: Aramco is racing to raise sales gas production by 80% from 2021 levels by 2030, a target it lifted last year from 60%. Expanding domestic gas lets the Kingdom burn less crude in power generation, freeing more for export, industry, and petrochemicals.

Picking up the tab

Egnyte covered the cost of replicating some customers’ data to other compliant sites after regional disruption affected data centers, the company told EnterpriseAM. The content-collaboration platform is used by delivery teams on giga-projects including Diriyah and Qiddiya.

REMEMBER- Drone strikes knocked AWS data centers offline in the UAE and Bahrain in March, during a wave of Iranian missile attacks across the GCC, taking down banks, apps and government services, and pushing customers onto backups in other jurisdictions. The episode recast data centers as wartime targets on par with energy infrastructure and put a damper on the Gulf’s pitch as a secure home for AI compute.

What they said: “In some cases, funding was an issue, so we covered the cost of replicating their data to other compliant sites,” COO Stan Hansen said. “We needed their approval to proceed, but we took on the cost.” MENA Managing Director Mohammad Alfaour said customers, some of them prospects at the time, had approached the company to strengthen resilience across their datasets, and that Egnyte accelerated those deployments at its own expense.

The arrangement is a stopgap. Hansen said Egnyte does not intend to carry the cost indefinitely, and that a longer-term fix would become part of each customer’s broader data strategy.

Why it matters: The giga-projects run on sprawling joint ventures that need a single, compliant place to share files. Egnyte, in Saudi Arabia for more than eight years, keeps client data in a Dammam data center for residency in the Kingdom, with Azure Middle East covering the UAE and a Doha facility for Qatar, Alfaour said. On site — the Qiddiya racetrack and Diriyah’s Opera House among them — it gives delivery teams a common data environment and can hold data locally where bandwidth is thin.

What’s next: Hansen said Egnyte has held discussions with government bodies, Saudi Aramco and PIF, and is adapting to demand for “bring-your-own-model” as locally developed Arabic LLMs emerge.


The gas crunch gave Egypt every reason to speed up its energy transition, and the question now is who builds it and who pays for it. Power Trip, our four-part signature series, turns this week to the transition and the private developers now building much of Egypt’s new power. Issue II looks at how the deals behind these projects work, who is lending to them, and why the country is building a nuclear plant at El Dabaa alongside its solar and wind farms. We also look at whether the regional crisis has finally pushed industry toward renewables, and at the factories Egypt is counting on to build its own panels, batteries, and turbines.

Tap here to subscribe to the Egypt edition and get Power Trip delivered straight to your inbox.

***

You’re reading EnterpriseAM Saudi, your essential daily roundup of business, economics, and must-read news about Saudi, delivered straight to your inbox. We’re out Sunday through Thursday by 7am Riyadh time.

EnterpriseAM Saudi is available without charge thanks to the generous support of our friends at Tas’heel and Hassan Allam Properties.

Want to send us a story idea, request coverage, ask for a correction, or otherwise get in touch? Reach out to us on [email protected].

DID YOU KNOW that we also cover MENA+, Egypt, the UAE, and the MENA logistics industry?

Were you forwarded this email? Tap or click here to get your own copy of EnterpriseAM Saudi delivered every weekday.

***


The Gulf’s sovereign funds and largest companies are committing billions to AI infrastructure at home and to AI companies in the US and beyond. EnterpriseAM AI + Innovation reports on where that capital goes, who controls it and what it is actually buying.

Every Tuesday and Thursday, we also cover the startups and established firms across MENA putting AI to work, and how it is changing jobs, education and the way business runs.

It’s sharp, analytical and skeptical journalism that ignores hype and is laser-focused on informing our readers, not pleasing our sources.

Sign up here to be among the first to get it straight to your inbox.

The big story abroad

US authorities arrested a Saudi OpenAI employee for allegedly planting a recording device at the company's San Francisco headquarters. A security team found the device hidden in toilet paper behind a TV in an executive meeting room at its headquarters on 30 September. OpenAI fired the employee and said it found no sign that customer data, source code, or model weights had been stolen.

The US Treasury Department fined Bank of America more than USD 1 bn for violating anti-money laundering and sanctions laws and failing to report over USD 5 bn in suspicious activity. This included “suspicious transactions indicative of Chinese Money Laundering Networks, fraud, and potential trade-based money laundering with a substantial nexus to the southwest border,” the Treasury Department said.

Google released its flagship AI model Gemini 4 Argon to developers and businesses worldwide. The model is billed as particularly effective at complex, multi-step work across coding, finance, legal affairs, cybersecurity, and scientific research.

This publication is proudly sponsored by

Easier life with Tasheel
The Luxury of Certainty
2

INFRASTRUCTURE

East-West pipeline could become shared Gulf export infrastructure as Kuwait eyes joining

Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline is on its way to becoming shared Gulf export infrastructure. Kuwait is in talks to join a proposed Saudi line running to the Red Sea so that it could serve both countries, Deputy CEO for Planning and Innovation at Kuwait Oil Company Mohammed Al Abduljaleel tells EnterpriseAM. “Currently, there is coordination with the Kingdom to find or build a new oil pipeline from east to west, to the Red Sea,” he says.

Why the Kingdom holds the route: Saudi Arabia was pumping 5.8 mn bbl / d through the 1,200 km pipeline this month, against a capacity of 7 mn bbl / d, carrying exports to Yanbu around the Strait of Hormuz. It plans to lift overland transport capacity to 10 mn bbl / d within two to three years. Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said Monday the pipeline had already delivered benefits exceeding its construction cost. It kept Aramco exporting through the period when shipments from other Gulf producers, Kuwait among them, stopped.

What it’s worth to Kuwait: Production is running at 2 mn bbl / d of crude, down from 2.6 mn bbl / d before the crisis, Al Abduljaleel told us. That’s a fall of roughly 23%, with what remains split between domestic refineries and exports.

The other option is Fujairah: Kuwait is separately studying access to a pipeline route through the UAE to Fujairah, which also sits outside the strait.

Both are early: Neither route has reached feasibility-study stage, leaving costs and capacity estimates undetermined. Al Abduljaleel says Kuwait would pursue the projects as long-term investments regardless of whether regional tensions ease, with most crude continuing to move through existing Gulf ports under normal conditions.

The investment bill: Kuwait plans to invest KWD 20-22 bn (USD 65-72 bn) over five years to expand oil production capacity and develop infrastructure, Al Abduljaleel says. Financing options under consideration include bond sales, local bank loans, export credit agency funding and deals involving existing infrastructure assets. Al Abduljaleel pointed to Project Shaheen, which would raise funds by leasing KOC’s existing pipelines to investors, including Blackstone and Brookfield, and leasing them back. Those proceeds would fund domestic production and infrastructure rather than the export routes through Saudi Arabia or the UAE.

Storage closer to buyers: Kuwait is also weighing new oil storage facilities in Asia to keep supplies closer to major buyers during disruptions, after earlier arrangements near Japan and South Korea proved to be limited in scale, Al Abduljaleel said. “Given the situation we went through, having oil and petroleum-product storage facilities near markets is one of the necessary solutions.” No budget or timeline has been set.

The 2030 target holds: Kuwait’s plan to reach 4 mn bbl / d of capacity by 2030 could slip, though the goal itself is unchanged. “The strategic goal has not been affected. The plans remain as they are,” he says.

Where the market sits: Russell Hardy, CEO of Vitol, one of the world’s largest independent oil traders, warned that crude could hit USD 200 / bbl if Middle East supply disruptions worsen, according to Reuters, even as some 14 mn bbl / d of crude and refined products continue to leave the region, helping contain prices. “We are still far from that figure. But the continuation of this crisis and delays in finding solutions are putting pressure on markets,” Al Abduljaleel says.

3

ENERGY

Regional tensions sharpen global focus on Saudi Arabia’s energy-security role, WPC’s Marten says

Escalating regional tensions have heightened global awareness of Saudi Arabia's role in energy security, even as security concerns prevented some senior oil executives from attending the World Petroleum Council's first energy congress in Riyadh, Ivan Marten, Executive Committee Member at WPC Energy, tells EnterpriseAM. The event brought attention to the importance of reliable energy supplies and how Saudi Arabia fits into that view, he says.

“Now we are all in the news and we are understanding why this is important and why energy security is important, and we should care about this,” he says.

The backdrop: Riyadh is hosting the WPC Energy Congress for the first time this week, bringing together energy ministers, oil and gas executives, and industry representatives to discuss energy security, investment, infrastructure and emerging technologies. Saudi Arabia was selected to host the event because of its position as a major oil and gas producer, its investments across different energy sources and its role in maintaining market stability, Marten said.

But not everyone made it: Chief executives from ExxonMobil, TotalEnergies, Shell and BP canceled plans to attend the congress. “I think they had personal circumstances, they had also security concerns or policies within their companies,” Marten said, without identifying specific companies that had imposed travel restrictions on its people. The Energy Ministry helped international delegations with transportation and logistical arrangements as organizers navigated the disruption, Marten said.

The congress comes amid regional military escalation that has disrupted air travel and raised concerns about the safety of international visitors. Riyadh's King Khalid International Airport has been targeted three times within a week, while the UK has advised against all but essential travel to Riyadh and other parts of Saudi Arabia.

The disruption has also affected preparations for the Future Investment Initiative, scheduled to take place later this month in Riyadh. Some international firms have reduced delegations or restricted travel, while FII organizers have said the summit will proceed with comprehensive security measures.

The forum nevertheless attracted substantial industry participation, with a full exhibition hall, extensive business activity and ministerial delegations attending at different levels of representation, he added.

Companies used the gathering to meet potential partners, engage with governments and regulators, and discuss investment requirements, new technologies and energy infrastructure, Marten said. He singled out infrastructure investment as a subject that had received insufficient attention in previous industry discussions. Marten did not provide an attendance figure or a tally of agreements signed during the event.

4

ECONOMY

Saudi private sector grows to 13.6 mn, with Saudization concentrated at the top

Saudi Arabia’s private-sector workforce is growing, and the Saudization gains are landing in its higher-skill jobs. Private-sector employment rose 7% y-o-y to 13.6 mn at the end of 2Q, with Saudi nationals up 8.2% to 2.689 mn, or 19.8% of the total, according to the National Labor Observatory’s quarterly report (pdf). That outpaced the 6.8% growth in non-Saudis, who now number 10.9 mn. The government separately employs 1.1 mn, 96.8% of them Saudi.

The Saudi gains cluster near the top of the skill ladder. High-skill Saudization rose to 51% from 47% since 2Q 2023, as high-skill Saudi employment climbed 35% to 1.6 mn. Saudis now hold 92% of clerical jobs and 64% of managerial ones. Mid-skill employment grew just 82k to 1 mn, and Saudization there has held at 23%.

The base of the workforce remains overwhelmingly expat: 5.7 mn non-Saudis work in elementary occupations, against 57k Saudis.

Pay tracks the same divide. The average Saudi private-sector wage rose 5.4% y-o-y to SAR 9.5k, roughly 3.5x the SAR 2.7k non-Saudi average. Some 87.7% of non-Saudis earn under SAR 4k a month, while 68.1% of Saudis sit in the SAR 4-8k band. Pay also rises with firm size, from SAR 5.4k at micro-enterprises to SAR 12.1k at large ones.

The inflow is feeding that shift. Saudi entrants to the private sector reached 563k in 2Q, up 30% y-o-y, against 411k exits, for a net gain of about 152k. First-time entrants hit 130k, a 69% jump, with returnees making up the other 433k. High-skill entrants rose 68% to 74k and mid-skill entrants 73% to 55k. Large firms took the most hires at 230k, followed by micro-enterprises at 141k.

Finance leads on localization. Finance and ins. posted the highest Saudization at 84%, or 89k of 106k workers, ahead of mining and quarrying (70%) and ICT (59%). By growth, real estate expanded fastest at 29.3% y-o-y, followed by ICT at 28.4%, while health and social work was nearly flat at 0.3%.

Micro firms grew fastest; large firms employ the most Saudis. Micro-enterprises added workers fastest, up 14.1% y-o-y to 4.798 mn, followed by small firms at 6.0%. Large firms grew just 2.9%, but they employ 1.242 mn Saudis, 46% of the Saudi private-sector workforce.

Regionally, Riyadh dominates, the south grows fastest: Riyadh employs 6.2 mn private-sector workers and holds 46.4% of the Kingdom’s Saudi private-sector workers, ahead of the Eastern Province (2.6 mn) and Makkah (2.3 mn). By pace, Najran grew fastest at 45.7% y-o-y, followed by Hail (13.7%) and Qassim (11.5%). Al-Baha, the Northern Borders, and Al-Jouf have the smallest workforces.

Saudi women are gaining faster than men. Saudi women in the private sector grew 9.9% y-o-y to 1.1 mn, outpacing the 7.0% rise among men to 1.6 mn. Women now make up 42% of the Saudi private-sector workforce and hold 33% of Saudi senior-management roles. Saudi men, however, still out-earn Saudi women in the sector, at SAR 11.5k against SAR 6.7k. Non-Saudi women grew fastest of all, up 16.7% to 523k.

5

ALSO ON OUR RADAR

Salic Consolidates grain operations with full takeover of National Grain Company

Taking full control

Salic is taking full ownership of the National Grain Company and moving it under its subsidiary, the National Grain Supply (Sabil), after acquiring the remaining 50% stake, it said in a statement.

The bigger picture: The transfer ties Salic’s domestic and international investments together to strengthen food security. In July, the companyintegrated Continental Farmers Group with Olam Agri to boost its international sourcing.

REFRESHER- PIF-backed Salic launched Sabil last year, to oversee grain storage and supply operations, deepen collaboration with the private sector, and facilitate growth in the agri-food sector across the Kingdom.

Humain and Napster to launch Arabic-first AI agents

Napster taps Humain to build Arabic-native digital employees for the MENA region: The US-based AI company partnered with PIF’s tech arm to roll out Arabic-first AI agents to public and private sector clients across the region, according to a press release. The partnership will pair Humain IQ, its AI services platform, and Humain Voice with Napster’s video presence, Large Persona Model technology, and multimodal agent infrastructure to integrate Arabic-first language and speech capabilities into embodied AI experiences.

What will actually change: Napster will access three Humain capabilities through secure APIs. Allam, Humain’s proprietary large language model, handles text generation, summarization, and function calling. Humain Voice ASR Real Time transcribes Arabic speech to text, and Humain Voice TTS Real Time converts text to natural speech across multiple Arabic dialects. Napster will roll these out first to its existing clients in Saudi Arabia and the wider Middle East.

Why it matters: The API model lets other tech firms embed Humain’s models in their own platforms, which the two companies pitch as a route to wider international use of the Kingdom’s AI. It also meets demand for AI agents that work in Arabic by default, giving local companies a ready workforce tool.

SAR orders 10 Swiss trains

Saudi Arabia Railways (SAR) exercised its option to buy 10 more intercity passenger trains from Stadler for USD 361 mn (CHF 300 mn), the Swiss manufacturer said in a statement. The order builds on SAR’s 2024 Stadler contract for 10 trains. Each train can carry 320 passengers.

The trains will run on the East-West line connecting Riyadh, Hofuf, Abqaiq, and Dammam. Production will take place mainly in Switzerland, with passenger service expected to begin in 2H 2029.

REMEMBER- SAR lined up financing for those trains last month, bringing in Swiss Export Risk Ins. (SERV) alongside KfW IPEX-Bank, Commerzbank, and UBS Switzerland to fund the purchase.

Riyadh Metro expansion

The Royal Commission for Riyadh City has contracted Siemens and Alstom to manufacture 94 trains for the Riyadh Metro, expanding its fleet to 277 from 183, SPA reports. Deliveries are due to begin in batches in 2028, and the expansion is expected to raise passenger capacity by 57%. The contracts, worth more than USD 5 bn, cover train manufacturing, systems and equipment, maintenance, training, and technical and operational services.

Expanding restaurant financing

Funding Souq has taken an investment from Foodics to expand SME lending to restaurants that use Foodics’ technology platform, according to a press release. The tie-up will use restaurant sales and performance data to assess creditworthiness and tailor financing to each business. Foodics plans to deploy USD 100 mn through its Capital 2.0 restaurant financing product in the first year, and Funding Souq aims to facilitate USD 1 bn in SME financing over the next three years.

6

PLANET FINANCE

IMF slashes MENA growth as Hormuz closure disrupts oil and shipping

Growth in the Middle East and North Africa is set to contract 3.8% in 2026 before rebounding next year to an 8.0% clip, as the Gulf war disrupts hydrocarbon production, shipping, and economic activity, according to the IMF’s October 2026 World Economic Outlook (pdf). The Fund cut its 2026 MENA growth forecast by 4.8 percentage points from April, while raising its 2027 projection by 3.1 points.

The IMF updated its forecasts almost at the last minute to reflect higher oil prices, IMF Deputy Director of Research Petya Koeva Brooks said at the WEO press briefing in Bangkok. Risks remain tilted to the downside, particularly for Gulf exporters, where the shock is also spilling into non-oil activity.

What’s driving the downturn? The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted a route that carried around 20 mn barrels of oil daily before the war — roughly a quarter of global maritime oil trade. Infrastructure damage, shipping restrictions, and higher freight and ins. costs have curtailed exports and weighed on tourism and transport.

Refinery outages and damage in the Gulf and Russia have removed an estimated 20% of internationally traded refined oil product supply, leaving prices 70-95% above prewar levels. Diesel and gasoline face particularly severe pressures.

Gulf economies face steep contractions: Oil exporters in the IMF's broader Middle East and Central Asia grouping are expected to shrink 3.8% this year before growing 7.4% in 2027. Higher oil prices are not enough to offset lost production and exports.

Kuwait’s economy is forecast to contract 16.7% in 2026 before rebounding 17.1% next year. Iraq is expected to shrink 16.0% before growing 19.0%, Qatar to contract 15.6% before expanding 18.8%, and Bahrain to shrink 11.3% before recovering 13.9%.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE face smaller contractions of 3.3% and 3.9%, respectively, followed by growth of 7.9% and 7.7% in 2027. Saudi Arabia benefits from alternative oil export routes, although the IMF warned that non-oil activity is also slowing in some Gulf economies.

Elsewhere, Oman (+4.1%), Algeria (+3.8%), and Libya (+3.3%) are expected to grow this year, while Iran is forecast to contract 7.6%, with inflation reaching 78.6%.

Oil importers are holding up better: The IMF forecasts 4.7% growth in both 2026 and 2027 for importers in its broader Middle East and Central Asia grouping, compared with 4.3% in 2025. The Fund had modestly upgraded the outlook, citing resilient domestic demand, remittances, and tourism, despite higher energy and food import bills, IMF Director of Research Silvana Tenreyo said.

Egypt’s growth forecast has been upgraded for both 2026 and 2027, driven by recovering Suez Canal activity and oil-related sectors, the IMF official said at the briefing. The Fund expects growth of 5.1% this year, up from 4.4% in 2025, before slowing to 4.7% in 2027 as the delayed impact of the Gulf conflict weighs on activity. Risks remain tilted to the downside, including from further regional shipping disruptions.

Egyptian inflation is forecast to ease from 20.4% in 2025 to 13.3% this year before rising to 14.8% in 2027. The current account deficit is projected to widen from 4.2% of GDP in 2025 to 4.4% this year and 4.9% next year.

Morocco is expected to grow 4.5% in 2026 and 4.2% in 2027, Jordan 2.7% and 3.1%, and Tunisia 2.4% and 2.0%, respectively.

Hormuz reopening scenarios: The IMF’s baseline assumes reopening will begin in March 2027, with conditions broadly returning to prewar levels by October 2027. This is a forecasting assumption, not a prediction of when the war will end. The Fund assumes average oil prices of USD 95.74 / bbl in 2026 and USD 87.39 in 2027.

What if the conflict drags on? In a downside scenario with hostilities continuing through June 2027 and further infrastructure damage, oil prices reach USD 130 per barrel in late 2026 and early 2027. OPEC production falls 22% below the 2027 baseline. Combined with tighter financing conditions and higher inflation expectations, the scenario would cut global growth by 0.5 percentage points and raise inflation by 1.1 points in 2027.

The global economy’s resilience has limits: Higher production outside the Gulf, inventory drawdowns, alternative supplies, and energy efficiency have cushioned the shock. Without these adjustments, global growth would have been 2.5% rather than the projected 3.1% in 2026, IMF Economic Counsellor Silvana Tenreyro said. But inventories and other buffers are running thin.

AI-related investment and trade have also supported global growth, although the benefits are concentrated in technology supply chains, leaving many energy importers more exposed to the shock.

What does the IMF recommend? Temporary, targeted support for vulnerable households rather than broad subsidies, rebuilding fiscal buffers, and strengthening energy security. Central banks should keep inflation expectations anchored while weighing the impact of higher prices on economic activity.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asian markets were in the green in early trading. South Korea’s Kospi was up around 1%, and Japan’s Nikkei was up roughly 0.4%. US equities were broadly in the red.

TASI

10,318

+0.3% (YTD: -1.6%)

MSCI Tadawul 30

1,388

+0.4% (YTD: +0.1%)

NomuC

22,030

+0.4% (YTD: -5.4%)

USD : SAR (SAMA)

USD 3.75 Sell

USD 3.75 Buy

Interest rates

4.25% repo

3.75% reverse repo

EGX30

51,265

-0.7% (YTD: +22.6%)

ADX

9,793

+0.3% (YTD: -2%)

DFM

5,858

+0.4% (YTD: -3.1%)

S&P 500

7,806

+0.0% (YTD: +14.0%)

FTSE 100

10,650

-0.1% (YTD: +7.2%)

Euro Stoxx 50

6,167

-0.6% (YTD: -6.4%)

Brent crude

USD 107.10

+1.3%

Natural gas (Nymex)

USD 3.33

+1.3%

Gold

USD 4,176

+0.0%

BTC

USD 83,273

+0.2% (YTD: +5.0%)

Sukuk/bond market index

888.19

+0.1% (YTD: -3.4%)

S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk

147.23

+0.2% (YTD: -3.1%)

VIX (Fear gauge)

15.27

+0.4% (YTD: +2.1%)

THE CLOSING BELL: TADAWUL-

The TASI rose 0.3% yesterday on turnover of SAR 3.3 bn. The index is down 1.6% YTD.

In the green: Saudi Fisheries (+10%), Watani Iron Steel (+9.9%), and Jarir Marketing (+8.2%).

In the red: Tanmiah Food (-6.6%), Etihad GO Telecom (-5.6%), and Al Masar Al Shamil Education (-3.7%).

THE CLOSING BELL: NOMU-

The NomuC rose 0.4% yesterday on turnover of SAR 17.8 mn. The index is down 5.4% YTD.

In the green: Almuneef Company for Trade, Industry, Agriculture and Contracting (+14.5%),

Twareat Medical Care (+8.4%), and Group Five Pipe Saudi (+7.1%).

In the red: Knowledge Tower Trading (-10%), National Signage Industrial (-8%), and Alhasoob (-6.8%).


11-15 October (Sunday-Thursday): WPC Energy Congress, Riyadh Front Exhibition & Conference Center, Riyadh.

11-15 October (Sunday-Thursday): Riyadh Energy Week, Riyadh Front Exhibition & Conference Center, Riyadh.

14-17 October 2027 (Thursday-Sunday): Red Sea Yacht Show, Jeddah Yacht Club, Jeddah.

21 October - 30 December (Wednesday-Wednesday): Riyadh Season, Riyadh.

25-26 October (Sunday-Monday): The Global Proptech Summit, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

26-28 October (Monday-Wednesday): ACHEMA Middle East, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

26-29 October (Monday-Thursday): The Future Investment Initiative, King Abdulaziz International Conference Center, Riyadh.

28-29 October (Wednesday-Thursday): Procurement and Supply Chain Futures Forum, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

28-29 October (Wednesday-Thursday): Real Estate Supply Chain Forum, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

30 October-1 November (Friday-Sunday): The New Global Sport Conference, Sofitel Hotel & Convention Centre, Riyadh.

NOVEMBER

11-12 November (Wednesday-Thursday): Aluminum Arabia, The Arena, Riyadh.

16-19 November (Monday-Thursday): Cityscape Global, Riyadh Exhibition and Convention Centre (Malham), Riyadh.

29 November-1 December (Sunday-Tuesday): The UN Trade and Development Global Supply Chain Forum, Riyadh.

29 November-1 December (Sunday-Tuesday): The Global Logistics Forum, King Abdulaziz International Convention Centre, Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2026:

2027

JANUARY

12-14 January (Tuesday-Thursday): The Future Minerals Forum (FMF), Riyadh.

FEBRUARY

1-3 February (Monday-Wednesday): Energy Regulators Regional Association annual conference, Riyadh.

MARCH

21-25 March (Sunday-Thursday):The World Water Forum, Riyadh.

22–24 March (Monday-Wednesday): Capital Markets Forum, Four Seasons Hotel, Riyadh

APRIL

26-29 April (Monday-Thursday): World Energy Congress, Riyadh.

JUNE

1-3 June (Tuesday-Thursday): The Saudi Entertainment and Amusement Expo, Riyadh Front Exhibition and Conference Center.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2027:

  • The Ocean Race finishes in Amaala on the Red Sea;
  • Riyadh-Kudmi transmission line to be completed;
  • Aero Middle East and Sand & Fun takes place in Thumamah Airport, Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2Q 2027:

  • The Hail Region Water Networks Project is expected to be completed.
Now Playing
Now Playing
00:00
00:00